YouSaid · the spoken record

Kevin Hassett

lines on the record
64
first
2016-11-17
most recent
2016-11-17
sittings or episodes
1
sources
podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

  1. “Or plan to have a plan on entitlements. So, infrastructure spending was a rare area bipartisan agreement during the campaign, and we all heard Mr. Trump reaffirm his commitment to a big infrastructure package during his acceptance speech. What would fiscal spending in the magnitude he's proposed in the area of infrastructure mean for the economy and where would it go?”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “It's all conservatives. Yeah, and so I think the typical strategy and certainly what we've seen in previous administrations when you have single party control, both during the Bush administration and then the early part of the Obama administration is basically pass it along with a couple of sort of other fiscal responsibility items, whether it's budget rules changes or a small package of spending cuts or something else. This year it's obviously, or next year it's going to plan to have a plan entitlements. Yeah. But next year, I think it's going to be a different situation because whether they do it before or after a tax cut, there is probably going to be a vote to raise the debt limit and probably going to be a vote to increase the deficit occurring in the same year. And, you know, people can make arguments about the growth effects, the positive growth effects that come out of a tax cut. And we agree with that. There probably will be some positive effect from that. But overall, the likelihood is that the deficit will rise.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Well, so the kind of good news for the debt limit just in terms of the process of getting through it is with the unified government it's probably not going to draw as much attention and be as controversial. But”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “And there's been a lot of resistance by congressional Republicans to raising the debt limit, and it's been a slog every time for the president to get that approved. How would that issue fare in the face of a massive, massive tax cut?”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Yeah, exactly. And so that means that Republicans in Congress or Democrats, if they go along with it too, would be casting a vote to raise the budget deficit to over a trillion dollars a year. And so on the one hand, you can say, well, a tax cut of 2% of GDP sounds like it could happen. On the other hand, proactive vote to raise the budget deficit to over a trillion dollars per year seems less likely.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Yeah, no, I mean, I think right now people are just trying to sort of parse through the Ryan plan, the House Republican tax plan, the Trump plan, looking at the infrastructure proposals that are out there, and there are multiple infrastructure proposals, trying to think, number one, about what the substances of some of these things will be, but then also number two, like what is politically possible, even if you just need a simple majority, if we look at Trump's tax plan, for instance, it would probably raise the deficit by $400, $500 billion a year. And that basically takes a trillion.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Certainly seen that. We have seen that in the markets already, just the signaling of potential big tax cuts, potentially infrastructure spending, which we could chat about next, has already had a dramatic impact on the psychology of the markets and the business.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Exactly because the easy. I think they have to do the whole thing in one big package, which I think basically means that we're going to be waiting for at least half of next year, if not more than half of next year, to see how all of this plays out. With that said, I do think that a tax bill next year is likely to happen. And the question is really more, like, what happens rather than if something happens?”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “That's the issue, right? And so, you know, I think it is going to be difficult for them to get going quickly on this, apart from maybe just doing sort of a tax cut. And like you said, maybe repatriation along with that. But the problem is at a...”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “Of 2017. But even doing that, I think, would probably mean only kind of a slimmed down reform bill because, I mean, if we think back to the 80s when they did the last tax reform bill, it basically took them five years, right? And this is a complicated thing. And right now,”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “And if we think about tax reform, you could see tax cuts and repatriation obviously reasonably popular could get done in theory pretty quickly. But if you're going to do a comprehensive reform of the tax code, as folks have talked about, that could take quite some time.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Because of the procedural rules of the Senate, you need 60 votes to break a filibuster, and they've got Republicans are going to probably have 52 seats. And so with 52 seats, they're going to need eight Democrats. There are some exceptions to that. And so the exceptions would be on sort of fiscal related legislation where they can use something called the Reconciliation Process to pass bills that deal with tax policy, certain areas of spending, as long as they're involved in sort of the broader budget process with a simple majority. And so the question is, will they try to pass a tax cut? Will they try to do the repeal of the Affordable Care Act? Other things like that through the budget process, meaning just with Republican majority.”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “Probably at least because you also have to then come up with a new rule too. But they will have at least four years, and so they will have the time to do some of that. And then, of course, the other thing on the regulatory side is just changes going forward in terms of how new things are implemented. So for places where maybe regulations haven't been finalized, they can be finalized in a different direction. So there is quite a bit that the Trump administration will be able to do without Congress. But on the really big things, Congress will have to be involved. And so there I think of it basically in two buckets, the group of issues that need 60 votes in the Senate and therefore need Democratic support. And those include...”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “Right, so there are actually a number of things that he can do from his agenda that would be possible without Congress getting involved at all. I think the two most important ones from an economic point of view, first trade policy, and then second, some changes on immigration. So on trade, you know, the president does have pretty broad authority to adjust tariffs, pull out of trade deals, et cetera. And on immigration, as we've seen the current president is able to use executive orders to make adjustments to enforcement of current rules, and Trump probably could as well. Beyond that, the other big focus, I think, is going to be for a lot of people what he does just on the regulatory side. And so you can roll back regulations that were implemented by the previous administration, though that takes time. Because”

    2016-11-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT