YouSaid · the spoken record

Kevin Muir

lines on the record: 107
first: 2024-01-14
most recent: 2024-01-14
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Monetary. If we are living in a time of fiscal dominance, how do you sort of have to rewire your brain? Because I feel like if we are, I may have to rewire my brain because, you know, I know how to read the Fed stuff, FOMC, the minutes, everything, but like, I don't, I don't, you know, really have the tools. I think I need to bill out the tools to analyze fiscal.”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, and you're saying the reason is fiscal, fiscal, fiscal. The US government actually printing money, the US government running a deficit, which is the surplus of the private sector in 2008 and in the aftermath to that central banks were doing a lot of monetary stimulus, quantitative easing, which is a form of money printing. But if it's only monetary stimulus and the government is not running a large deficit, there's only so much that that can do. It has a pretty limited effect on the overall economy, even though on the financial system. It's very large. This time the government is running a very fiscal deficit and it sounds like you think this is here to stay. What's it like, Kevin, as someone who've been in the bond markets for a very long time? Obviously, not just pay attention to the short-term interest rates, the stir markets, but have traded them for a long time. What's it like sort of having to focus away from the, you know, is the Fed going to do 25? Is the Fed going to do 50 if fiscal really is what's driving this economy and not...”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“sure and not only that it's human beings are just like have a way of being kind of disappointed continually if you had thought back to 2020 when we were in lockdown and the world seemed to be ending and I said to you we were going to have kind of three years from now we were going to have a rip roaring stock market we were going to have the unemployment down at 3% or whatever it is and the growth at this x level you would have said oh that's terrific like that's great But yet here we are, and everyone's just mad about whatever it is, you know, whether it's that the price is like, yes, and I understand inflation is higher, but on the whole, we're a lot better off than we ever would have imagined back, you know, in March of 2020.”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, and some viewers may say, oh, but the economy is weakening because PMIs are down, growth is down. Spending, the rate of growth is down. And I would say, yeah, number one, it's not that the absolute levels are declining. It is that they were growing more slowly. They were growing at 8%. And now they're only growing at 5%. But when inflation flows from 9% to 3%, that real growth and in real terms, 2023 was a pretty good year. And also it's about expectations. Now the market thinks that the Fed is going to cut, I think five or six times by the end of the year, if the Fed only cuts two times, that's actually pretty hawkish relative to what the market expects, even though the Fed has signaled, I think, around three. So it's a relative game, markets are, right?”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They don't work as well as everyone expects. And kind of, we learn the lesson over the next decade of this kind of moribund growth and just kind of muddling along. COVID comes and all of a sudden we re-kind of discover fiscal stimulus. And not only do we rediscover it, we go absolutely bonkers with it and do so much of it. And that fiscal stimulus is way more powerful than people expect. I think that they've been underestimating it. And I think it has more of a longer term lasting effect than everyone thinks. And so when I look at our economy and everyone's wondering, why are we still doing so well, even though interest rates are higher? Yes, private sector credit creation is down, but the government continues to spend and put money directly into the economy through their deficits.”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I've had the same theme for a while now, and I think it's kind of amazing that people are still wondering and puzzling about this. And to me, it's pretty obvious that it's fiscal. The world changed in 2020. Every single time up until that point, we had tried to fix all of our kind of slumps with lower interest rates. You know, if you look at 1982, interest rates were cut from whatever it was, 15 down to 7. Then the next time they raised them up to 10, and then the next time they raised them, lowered them down to four. And it was this series of kind of lower highs and lower lows. And what they were doing was they were using monetary stimulus to fix the economy. But it was taking more and more kind of lower lower rates to actually have the same effect. Comes 2008. We get to zero and all of a sudden monetary stimulus doesn't work like we think it does. We do all this extraordinary kind of monetary stimulus, whether it's QE, Operation Twist, a whole host of things.”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks for having me, Jack. It's always a pleasure. I must say, you know, I've been watching your show and it just keeps getting better and better. I watched the other day you had Hari Krishnan. That was one of the best interviews I've seen forever. You're the guest you get are terrific. It's just a real pleasure and an honor to be on your show.”
2024-01-14 · Forward Guidance · Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT