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Kieran Goodwin

lines on the record: 75
first: 2023-05-30
most recent: 2023-05-30
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
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2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it's kind of cliche. It's my parents. I went to a college and they were like middle class and economics never came up. They were like, do whatever you have to do. They did that with my brother and sister. And they just always had belief in us that unconditional support is the kindest thing.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I've only met him once, and his imagination was definitely striking and rarely does the first thing you notice about someone about their imagination.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He takes nothing for granted. He made no assumptions. If you said that to anyone in Goldman Sachs, there's going to be a hedge fund that is going to start a securities business and dominate equity trading and equity options and make $7 billion in a year doing it. And it's going to be private. They'd be like, what are you talking about? That's like so silly. And he did it.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Guys with the same gear on or whatever They all have a shooting code. Now there's like a big man shooting coach and a three-pointer guy, and there's multiple shooting coaches, trainers that are just biomechanics making sure everyone's loose. I mean, they all have the equivalent of offensive and defensive coordinators plus the game management coach that just, hey, timeouts, fouls, how many fouls we can give. Again, position coaches. Yeah, there's just so many. At the margin, if you think about it, the warriors, I don't know, it's worth $6 billion. NBA teams are 10x in the last 10, 15 years. At the margin, like, should you be paying a guy 300 grand as an extra coach? Yeah, like, why not? Yeah.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Their lead. And if you see it in sports, why were the Pittsburgh Steelers a dominant franchise? Well, they were the first ones to really scout historically black colleges. They crushed it there. Billy Bean, obviously everyone knows, but there's always some alpha that they're mining, it feels like, to get to a better result and what should be like a 50, everyone should be 500 in a sense. So I do think, yeah, in investment management, like the firms that have always pushed the limits of like what makes sense and let's experiment. I mean, I think Jeff Bezos was thinking about his analogy of saying, hey, you can wait for your fat pitch, but the difference between baseball and business is that you can always hit a grand slam. Here you can hit a $10,000 run, right? Which is like imagination and volatility.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With respect to sports, I think the fact that the competition is always so fierce, I mean, if you think about, let's just go, it doesn't matter. I mean, NBA or NFL, the staffing, how come the staffs keep getting bigger and bigger? You watch an NBA game, there's like 15 guys that are coaches now. I think in 1979, the NBA went to like three coaches or something. And the NFL is the same, literally because it's the game within the game. There is just the little nuance of where do you get the advantage? I mean, remembering Bill Belichick wanted a left-footed punner because the ball spun the opposite way. And it's kind of an experiment where like everyone has playing by the same rules, same cap, same schedules. How do you get an advantage? That's where I do feel like the best as far as investor management, those firms never took for granted.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Scale's good. Yeah, scale's good. But when it comes to private credit, I don't know if that's right. I think you might be reaching a bit and justifying lending at top of cycles to, again, companies that don't have the hardest numbers and why you're making this loan. Well, because we need to raise the money to be the number one player or we want these GPs to come to us first. That's where I think goals can get in the way a bit.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can we manage and how big can we make this? And that may work. Again, going back to the Blackstone and their real estate business, I feel like they've shot the moon using Game of Hearts analogy. Like I feel like they do, they have all the cards, they see everything. Their flow is better than everyone else's, and like they've got a good sense of scale.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was more of the mindset it was more of the infinite game Graham Duncan liked to talk about. That was my mindset. Unsolvable puzzle that you toiled at every day and you made some headwinds. And if you kept your process right and you're disciplined, you were going to get some nuggets that were fulfilling and there would be some alpha there. Like you were kind of mining for alpha in a sense. It's hard to set goals with respect to like every day I want to get this much alpha or what have you. Yeah, it fits and starts and you're on the right path. But there is a process of understanding when to cut bait and this isn't a good idea. This isn't a good position. And let's press here. So I do feel like it's more of the infinite game. I do feel like I would say some of the hedge fund investing is a little different than the other alternative asset classes where it is more how much”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's total chaos. So it's like if you and I had the same talents and we get along and we're compatible, I don't know if we have synergy though. Do I make you better? Do you make me better? That's, I mean, I guess the synergistic effect, having the right combo. You can't have all leaders and you can't have all introverts. I mean, it's got to be some mixture.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, he's a great podcaster. He's really insightful. He's a bright guy. And he made a point about the Celtics team. He's like, yeah, Jalen Brown and Tatum, Jason Tatum, who's a duke guy and I'm a fan of, they're too much of the same player. So they aren't synergistic in a sense. You can't get mismatches. You do a pick and roll with those two. Doesn't matter. Whereas if you do a pick and roll with Jamil Murray and the Joker, now you've got two mismatches.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm a big Duke Hoops fan. And I think JJ Reddick, he's controversial, whatever. I understand why people don't like J.J. podcast.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, think about just finding a spouse or partner. There's so many people that you could be compatible with and you find someone, the great person, a lot of alignment, but there just isn't that one spark where you're like, you know what? This is a great partner that this person checks so many boxes, but like there's not that one spark. But then you find that person that checks all the boxes and has that like one spark, you see people that find those people and they're like, wow, I didn't know that was possible. The right combinations of people in organizations. I'm a huge believer in synergy when it comes to relationships. And that's optionality to me in a sense.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm just saying, like, yeah, as you get to the bounds of listed options, I see more and more mispricings as opposed to at the money options. So that just tells me that it's really, really hard, the log normal curve doesn't work. Yeah, option pricing, thinking about movements makes sense when the outlier happens, the 10 standard deviation move, the 15 that we're never supposed to see. And we see them all the time, then it's interesting to think about, is there a pond that might have a bunch of those options in it?”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You should definitely not be short, though. It's silly to be short those if you can find them, and I'm not saying you should just go out and try to buy 5,000 to one options, but you're saying.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I worked with an options trader, and this was like talking about listed options. He's like, You should never sell an option that was less than 10 basis points. He was just like, that's two out of the money. You don't want to be short that option. But if you reverse that and you're like, is there possible to buy a thousand to one options, thousand one payout, 5,000, 10,000? Yeah, I mean, in our lifetime, I haven't hit on any personally. I don't know if you have. I've seen a ton that have happened. Whatever you think about Bitcoin, it was public for many years where you could be up 10,000 times your money. And a bunch of other crypto. I think that's one of the reasons that Tesla has such a fandom is that there are so many people, probably more than any other stock, where people have made 50, 100 times their money. Elon can do no wrong. So thinking about how is the market pricing the probability. And I think once you get beyond that,”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Volatility, it can go up all of a sudden a billion dollar company's worth $2 billion, and you've only lent $500 million. Oh, that's great. As a lender, if you had to choose, would you want volatility or no volatility, not knowing which kind of volatility you're going to get upside or downside, you're like, I want no volatility. I don't get benefit of the upside”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah. I mean, short volatility is positive carry. Honestly, when you say someone wins the lottery, even though a lot of people that win lottery end up spending all the money, if you've been a financial advisor, one of your clients came in and said, I just want a billion dollars, you would be like, well, you should take X percentage of it and put it in T-bills. You have Carrie. T-bills are 90 days, whatever, but like a little bit short volatility that the federal government's going to keep rolling instead. Anytime you're lending money, you're short vol. I mean, it comes back to the nature of if I'm lending money as a private credit fund, as a bank, as an individual, I just don't want the assets to go down of that entity. So I want everything to stay where it is. If I'm lending money and I have 50% loan to value, I have a 50% equity cushion, it can go down a little bit and I'm fine. But I don't want volatility. I don't really care if it goes up. That's the thing.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Depends how much leverage. If private credit, if defaults don't come in, let's just say Q1 was an outlier and we don't hit a recession and defaults drop off, then maybe the private credit funds will never have to deal with it.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, you want to be. How is an investor getting back to your alpha? Like, where is the alpha coming from? Is it a time alpha? Is it an informational edge? Is it a liquidity? I mean, there is, you can get alpha and liquidity. But if the alpha is coming from an asset liability mismatch, they can work for a long time, long, long time. I'm not saying they're all terrible.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Private credit funds. My point with the private credit funds there is an asset liability mismatch. A lot of these funds have leverage. The leverage is to some big banks are sophisticated. And I'm not saying that there hasn't been any diligence done. There's been diligence done, but they have lent money, their assets or long-dated loans, and they do not match the financing lines that they have with the banks. So if those have to be paid back, they're going to be forced to sell assets to pay those back. And that's where the asset liability mismatch comes in. I mean, a mutual fund has an asset liability mismatch. They're giving out one day liquidity, and they might have assets that might take more than one day to sell. That's a mismatch.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the road to hell is paved with positive carry. So if you invest long and borrow short, usually there's positive carry. Like right now in the Treasury curve, it's inverted, but most yield curves are positively slow. I mean, you think about all the blow-ups over time, a lot of hedge fund blow-ups, long-term capital, whatever, they're levered 30 to 1, like how come they blow up? Because their leverage is overnight leverage and they have longer dated assets. The assets get marked down and their margin gets pulled and they have to sell everything. That's happened.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I want it in a safe bank. Everyone's telling me this is a great bank. Put it in that bank. Silicon Valley Bank. And you're like, wait, I have to deal with the fact that I'm a creditor to this bank. I mean, it didn't happen, but like, that's crazy. There's just so many assumptions, but yeah, there's narratives that everyone believes. I think thinking about just their narratives. And sometimes it's who's a good investor, who's a bad investor, what's a good investor, what's a bad investment. But then there's the structural. Lastly, I mean, I do think Silicon Valley Bank gets back to this, but there's always asset liability mismatches.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wait a minute. How many people actually understood the FDIC insurance? I don't want to be like, oh, I mean, $250,000 is a lot of money. So it's like most people, it's like not an issue, whatever. You get these young founders. Oh my gosh, I just raised $10 million from my Series A and like I'm top of the world. And I put it in the bank because I'm like 24 years old. And like I don't want to think about it.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Get a bunch of redemptions and you can't sell any bonds because the market isn't open. What do you do as a mutual fund? You put a gate out. I don't think that most investors realize most mutual fund investors realize they're subject to a gate. It's an open-ended fund. They think that they have one or two day liquidity. And if they put their notice in, they'll get their money back.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Mutual funds. I never knew that a mutual fund could gate 2008 hedge fund gated tons of hedge funds put gates up. Wow, that's kind of scary as an LP. Like they can just put your gate up. Funds are putting gates up now. There's some funds. I never thought about mutual funds putting gates up. But now it like not consumes me, but like, this is going to happen again. I mean, I thought during the pandemic, you had no trading in corporate bonds happening, spreads widening every day, the search for yields. Some of the big vanguard Pimco, and I'm not picking on them, like they became proxy like money market funds. You were getting zero in a money market fund as a retiree. You're like, I need some income. So you buy an investment grade fund or a crossover fund. And that was effectively your money market fund. But there was no trading. You think about a money market fund. Mike Green talks about this binary of like index funds. When they get money, they buy, when they get redemptions, they sell. Like it's zero, one.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I tried to do is the narrative is becoming more powerful. You've tapped into that just in all your podcasts. But there's assumed narratives that are out everywhere. I think as a society, probably we're getting better at really exploring narratives and being like, is this really what we want as society? But in the financial landscape, there's so many assumed narratives. So I do think exploring what does everyone believe and why is that true? Like it's little Byron Catie that we were talking about before. It's like trying to understand what is the nature of a AAA rating? What does that really mean? It's never going to default. Well, could this possibly ever default? Yeah, yeah, it could. And has AAAs defaulted? Actually, yeah, they have defaulted.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I never thought a financial institution would blow up because of interest rate risk. That's such a basic risk. It's like you can do interest rate risk literally like with a pen and paper. Patrick, how many 10 years do you have? I've got 58 billion. You don't have that much equity, Patrick. Like you're like negative equity because of these, yeah, it's fine. It just seems absurd that that happen. And it's like somewhat lack of imagination. And not to be a doomsday or because really good things happen. I'm always in awe of great growth investors that have the imagination not that, you know, I was believing that we're going to have Tesla full automation of taxis and everything like that, but like SpaceX is pretty amazing. Like if you think about, like, if you said to me 10 years ago, yeah, there's this guy. He's working on this thing, electric cars, you're like, oh, electric cars, that makes sense. And then he's going to do this other space company. And that's going to be bigger. What are you talking about? So I do think having a”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Billion of tenure nodes. Why do you have unhedged interest rate risk of that size? Like, why don't you own three year corporate bonds or like short-dated CLOA tranches? No one questioned, and it didn't happen overnight. This happened like they were buying”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The lack of imagination. I mean, I read a quote one time hundreds of years ago to Polyamaster talking, and they're like, oh, he can't be a mathematician because he doesn't have the imagination, which is kind of like, oh, but like if you think about math, really like when you think about like, and I'm not a mathematician, like how did they come up with? How did they think of that? Who thought of zero, right? Like that is crazy imagination to think about the concept negative numbers, what have you, that we take for granted. And that's what I think about volatility is like imagination. I'm not saying anyone predicted the pandemic, but like how quickly things can go upside down. Honestly, I'm not in the markets every day. I'm not using as an excuse, but like Silicon Valley Bank, it's kind of insane. There are public company that is issuing quarterly earnings reports and the market saw the hole in the balance sheet. It was reported and no one was like, wait, why do you own 50%?”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What is causing those assets to go up or down? Your customers, the margins, the supply chain cost of labor. There's all these different factors. And the great creditworthy companies or entities like the US government, what have you, they have a lower volatility. And like understanding business and why do you have an 80% gross margin? And is that sustainable? And why do you have a 45% EBITDA margin? And is that sustainable? Why is the 15% EBITDA margin actually really sustainable where there is a real moat there? Those questions and understanding volatility around the numbers, it's not static. It's always moving. And debt is forever. So everyone looks at like, oh, their credit where they borrow money. We know the rating agencies are behind. If you're waiting for rating agency to tell you that it's a less credit, obviously in private credit, there's no ratings whatsoever. So you just always have to be paranoid.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The best credit analyst that I've seen really understand cash flow and can raise a flag like, wait, this doesn't make sense. Why doesn't EBITDA on cash flow tie out? Why is this explanation taking 17 different footnotes to follow? And why do I have to go around and amaze to see where the numbers are? I mean, I think accounting is really, really important. Then I think it's about optionality, which I think I'm very good at is understanding optionality in the sense that asset values change over time. You have a capital structure today. You have a company that has $100 million of EBITDA. And the market says it's worth 10 times. And that's a billion dollar company. Some private credit firm will lend you five times, they'll lend you 50%.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Change how capital gets allocated, what the debt structures look like, does AI help on credit? Credit's hard. At some level, credit is all about belief. Do I believe I'm going to give you, I'm going to pay you, do you believe that I'll pay you back? There's ability to pay and willingness to pay. And we saw that during the subprime debacle is that if a creditor was like, you have the money and the debtor was like, well, I don't need to pay you because I'm not getting kicked out of the house. The willingness to pay went way down. Even that with institutions, if you're a bad actor in the capital markets, it's harder to borrow money the next time. The companies or entities that pay back and are fair, they're more creditworthy. I guess it goes a little beyond numbers in a sense.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's easy for me to say, like, oh, you shouldn't go in, you should try to make the world a better place, somewhat self serving. I think there's a tremendous amount of change. I think you have to go in wide open and be like, where's the change going to take place in the capital markets? I'm a big proponent of the blockchain. I have no prediction on the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum or any other, but I do think the blockchain will help solve some problems we have. It's hard to move money around the world. So global payment system is built on 40, 50 year old rails and settlement risk and counterparty risk is real in every kind of, whether it's a listed market or over-the-counter market where the blockchain can solve that problem as well. I'm not saying it's happening tomorrow. So I think if you're going into the capital market, it's like, how do you sell problems? The blockchain can help. What's AI going to do? Well, it's going to do a lot. So if you are thinking about how does AI change capital markets, how does it change investing?”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Come up with great ideas, and I think that idea is stupid. It's hard to tell them all the time that you can either be really, really gifted as giving messages, which is Hai EQ, or you could be like, I don't really care. And that's just the way I am.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Definitely exceptions. Some of the investors that I've met that don't necessarily have high EQs with respect to relating to others, they have a sense of calm where they're very capable of not being influenced by others, which might not be great for a team. They might not give you great feedback. Whether Soros said his back hurt and he was to sell, like they're not afraid to come and sell everything or say no. If they don't have a really good EQ, they've got like a strong sense of their independence, which it's hard not to get influenced because, yeah, you're at an organization and like even though it's like professional, don't take it personally, it's business. Everyone takes everything a little personally. If you're a PM and you have someone that you work with has done really good work.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's more EQ than IQ, but I think the EQ, there has to be a humble aspect of the EQ, which I think is a part of EQ is knowing when to be humble, being comfortable with hiring people that may be much smarter than you, but you feel like you can still add to their experience. You can still help them, you can still help them achieve their maximal potential as investors. I think that's a big part of EQ that coaching, managing aspect of a group of individuals, which, yeah, most of whether it's a hedge fund or there's more IQ problem than EQ.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm assuming the IQ is like at certain level. Like, if I give him 100 EQ points, he's not going to be a zero IQ. Yeah, let's say we.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Mitch Daniels was a big proponent of it. Maybe the 18, 19, 20 year olds didn't really understand what they were signing up for. Not that they understand what they're signing up for when they're taking student loans. So I do think there's an education side of it. But starting with the outperformers, the real chance for the right tail risk is critical”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I don't think that was the right cohort of individuals. I think it's best first tried on like whatever the field is, the top 1% talent where you have the chance to have an outlier that really outperforms. So it could be computer science majors at MIT. And it could be minor league baseball players or it could be YouTube personalities that have hit certain metrics are already in like, are they going to be the next Mr. Beast? I think investors need to see a chance for the 100X on some portion of the portfolio. And it's a capital market. It's a new market. So there's a demand for capital from the individuals and the providers of capital, they haven't gotten return. I think all the deals have been done have been not that great. And then there's also an education side to it. Whereas if I know Purdue University had”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some percentage of your upside. It shouldn't be too much. It shouldn't be more than probably 10 or 15%. So it's not like you're like, I can't believe I'm working for somebody else. Then I think equity financing is a great way to capitalize a talented person. And what does the equity finance get them? Well, it gets them resources now that would enable them to best use their talents and get training someone like an athlete you get training you get better nutrition you get better sleep if it's a youtube personality you get better microphones you get better people working with you if it's a dj you get a marketing firm whatever it is could be an engineer coming out of mit i just don't want any student loans i don't want to think about that i want a place to live i want to help my parents out i just want to peace of mind that i can perform better”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm a big fan of income sharing agreements. I do think that we hear every day a problem with our economy is over levered, whether it's the public, private, the Western society, the whole world is over-levered. I mean, you think about the Bitcoin maximalist. So much leverage, fiat, it really comes back to the fact that there is debt. If we had 0% debt to GDP, the Bitcoin maximalist wouldn't really have a great argument. If all the dollars were backed by gold, what would their argument be? So it comes to debt. So how do you finance a venture or person, an entity without debt? Well, equity, that's the other side of it. So that's the way I view income sharing agreements is that if you're a person has some talent or ambition or idea and you're willing to give up.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Believe in passive income. I do think there's alpha, like you want to be a hustler and you want to own real estate and beyond your brand and you can do it on the side or you have a buddy that you trust that you can empower. I think there's a decent amount of alpha in small medium businesses and being more efficient. I'm a big fan of Blackstone. I think many of the massive alternative asset managers have a tremendous amount of talent at them. I just happen to know a bunch of people at Blackstone better. And for their real estate funds, regardless of what we think about real estate, like we were talking about before, like I think they have the best network. They source better than anyone else. They understand all aspects of the market. They are seeing it on the private equity side, what real estate trends are. There's synergies there. If you had an allocation to Blackstone in real estate, that's a pretty good place to be.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Where is there alpha? I do believe there's alpha in time, and I believe there's alpha in the permanence of your capital. Going back to Buffett, his big advantage is he had time and permanence of capital. I definitely think there's alpha there. I think there's alpha in understanding new technology, whether it's biotech or AI or blockchain. But then you always have to find a new thing. Doesn't persist. But being on the edge, there's definitely alpha.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the skeptical is easier. I just think information, right? That was massive alpha over time. So if you think about the stressed, there was real alpha in knowing, understanding the process, the bankruptcy, chapter 11, the court proceedings, filings that had to be made, reading those filings. And then there was an osmosis that happens where there's some firms that are really good at it. Some people leave those firms, start their own firms. So understanding the process, that alpha gets dissipated. But then like reorg research comes out, which that just completely flattened the playing field. So the process of bankruptcy. I mean, yes, there's twists on it and turns on it. And you think about the same thing with long short equity. I don't really understand how going quarter to quarter is there any alpha anymore. I think there was alpha at some point. I think that informational edge in any market over time.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that phenomenon, it's like, all right, what's the follow up? So, in any kind of investing, I'm always amazed in awe of the investors that can change stripes and be fluid over decades of just figuring out how to make money. It's kind of sobering when someone like Stan Druckenmiller, I listen at the SOM conference and he's always like, listen, you know, it's harder now because every time we were getting into a recession, I knew the Fed was going to have to cut rates and I would just buy the two-year note. I can't do that this time. This time is different. And someone like him who's on anyone's all-time grade list, when he says it, like there's no magic formula. It's a puzzle that every day you have to go home a little defeated.”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, what's my next album? Right? You think about bands, and this is not a unique thought, but I remember in college I'm old, blue travelers came to Duke Bunch, and they released their album and it was like awesome. And then they released their second album. It was awesome. They'd been working on those songs for like seven or eight years. And then they released their third album. It kind of sucks because they only had like eight months. This is all I got, right? It's like”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Going to use probably a terrible word because my vocabulary isn't as good as yours. It's surreal, it's out of body, in a sense. Overnight successes are 10 years in the making. Rarely do you have someone that just steps in on day one. Most of the time, I would say whether it's private equity or hedge fund, during your 20s, you're kind of learning a craft. And then if you're lucky, you get some insights that maybe are unique. There's an assumed narrative out there that you're like, I don't believe in this. Everyone's believing this. I don't think this is true. And the payout, if I'm right, betting against that is massive. And then if you're really lucky, you get in a seat where you have real leverage to be in a situation. And then you need it to happen. So there's like a confluence event. So there's definitely some luck involved in that. When it all does happen,”
2023-05-30 · Invest Like the Best · Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source