YouSaid · the spoken record

Kristen Bitterly

lines on the record: 20
first: 2020-10-02
most recent: 2020-10-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Is opened doors to connect with a lot of people in all regions of the firm who are also exploring this interest and finding it very helpful to them in environments such as the one we're in currently. During the lockdown, I was very grateful to work with Goldman Wellness to arrange a couple of virtual meditations for the firmwide women's network on a scale that probably wouldn't have been possible in an in-person environment. My hope and vision, which I think many at the firm share, is to continue building community and contributing to open dialogue around mindfulness and its role in the workplace. I think we are really just getting to the inflection point there.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thank you so much for asking. So I became a yoga instructor about four years ago through a 200 hour teacher training at a studio in Manhattan. And as part of that training, I somewhat unintentionally became a practitioner of yoga philosophy, which was put into writing over 2,000 years ago and is really rooted in meditation and mindfulness. For me, practicing mindfulness has been truly transformative, both personally and professionally. On the more concrete side of things I've discovered, it's a tool to habituate the brain for joy, being present, and working more effectively. And at a more spiritual level, it's a path which is not always an easy one of knowing oneself better. My next step here is to learn a type of meditation called Vipassana on a 10-day silent retreat at the end of the month. Here at Goldman, I've been truly amazed by how mindful”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Monday was actually my first day back physically in the office in New York, and it was really great to see my colleagues who've kind of become my family over the years, although things have changed. We're sitting every other desk now, distancing in place. But reflecting on the last six months, I'm also very grateful for some of the silver linings of working remotely. I spent part of June in Zion with my sister hiking in the evenings after work and some really beautiful areas of the country that I wouldn't otherwise have gotten to visit this year.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It has probably been the most interesting year of my career on the training desk. Trading desks thrive on information flow, they're fast-paced, they're loud, they're very team-oriented, and our clients rely on us being in that environment so that we can be their eyes and ears in the market. And it was frankly shocking in a good way to learn that it was possible for this to function remotely, let alone in one of the most volatile markets in history. So to stay connected, my team has been using Zoom a little bit like a walkie-talkie. We leave an audio line on all day so we can talk to one another and share information real time. And with clients, my desk has done a lot of zooming for virtual round.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Evidence that traditional fixed income is not always functional as a hedge, and this is especially a challenge in the current low-rate environment and probably partially explains why we have observed money market outflows of close to $200 billion in the last seven weeks alone.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A late cycle inflation overshoot. We've seen focused shift towards hard assets, especially those that are income producing, financial assets, and operating assets. With regard to other hedges, one theme that has been resonating for cautious investors is callers on single stocks, which means selling a call to buy a put. Through the summer, what we saw was a huge uptick in buying volume of short dated call options, particularly in popular retail technology stocks, which made collering relatively attractive for investors who were looking to lock in gains in those names. Taking a bigger step back, protecting portfolios against drawdowns is a real struggle for investors right now. In the first quarter, a 60-40 stock bond portfolio experienced one of its largest drawdowns since the 1960s. So we have very recent scar”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Gold absolutely continues to get a lot of attention. It was around 1,600 an ounce when we last spoke, and it then went on to hit an all-time high in August. And while it's backed off those levels in part due to the lack of progress on government stimulus, still up over 20% year to date in the high 1800s context. The reason clients are focused here is because gold can perform well in fear-driven environments, and many see it as a potential beneficiary in the event of increased stimulus, dubbish policy, and US dollar weakness. While some would consider it a hedge as the market starts to price in inflation risk, our investment strategy group has found that gold actually has quite an unstable correlation with core inflation, and equities have more consistently outperformed. For investors who are focused on long-term protection, should we experience”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rising inflation and a higher and steeper yield curve. In terms of where we are in that process, the majority of super forecasters expect there to be enough doses of an FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine to inoculate 25 million people sometime at the beginning of next year. In terms of how to trade that, what we're seeing is that certain value sectors like food and beverages exhibit very high positive correlation with rising vaccine probabilities. There are also other areas of the economy that are still deeply depressed versus pre-pandemic levels that could be well positioned for catch-up. Those are segments like transportation, sports, hotels, restaurants, hospitals. We are having a lot of fascinating conversations on the desk right now about what return to normal will look like in a post vaccine world, what will snap back to normal.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has been left in the dust. We've seen significant underperformance of cyclical equities, particularly energy and financials, which are down 50% and 20% respectively. So there are essentially two economies trading, which suggests that the market remains very skeptical of any semblance of a return to normal. A lot of clients that I speak to are still constructive on growth technology stocks, which particularly owes to the low-rate environment and the acceleration in trends ignited by stay-at-home orders, but low valuation stocks now trade at their largest discount to high valuations since the tech bubble. And tactically, many clients think at some point this gap simply needs to converge. So we're seeing focus on the rotation trade that could happen whenever a vaccine is announced. That could translate to better economic growth, potentially higher earnings.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, regarding a second wave, investors are definitely monitoring coronavirus data, which has become more worrisome recently. As an example, the daily positive test rate in New York exceeded 3% a couple of days ago for the first time since June. That alongside the absence of certainty on a next leg of a stimulus is very concerning. However, the question my clients are most focused on right now is how and when to position for a post-vaccine world. This is because while the equity market has recovered all of its COVID-19 losses, it remains massively bifurcated under the surface. On the one side, you've got a market that has rewarded technology stocks this year in a big way. The five biggest stocks in the S&P, which are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook, are up 40% year-to-date on average. The other side”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you mentioned beyond the election, the other main factor people were watching is the vaccine and the outlook for a vaccine. Are investors focused on the second wave right now, which we're experiencing at some level in the U.S. and Europe, or are they already looking beyond that to a vaccine in the aftermath of that?”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Longer than normal to determine the election results. Interestingly, the expected use of mail and ballots differs hugely between the right and the left. Some surveys suggest 11% of Trump supporters plan to vote by mail versus 47% of Biden supporters. And to capture this extended period of uncertainty, we've seen a number of clients initiating hedging strategies with tenors beyond the November election date. In addition, while I would say that clients that I speak to are skeptical about the reliability of polls given the surprising outcome of 2016, they are focused on understanding what a democratic policy agenda could mean for S&P 500 earnings. And to take a step back on where we are from evaluation standpoint, the S&P market multiple is expensive by historical standards. It has been cheaper 90% of the time history.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So before the pandemic commanded the world's attention, the US election was the main market event my clients were focused on this year. Now I would say it's one of the two remaining milestones investors are watching for, the other being a potential vaccine announcement. And after what was a very chaotic debate, to say the least, on Tuesday evening between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, the short-term market reaction to the debates showed polls in favor of a Biden win by about 7 percentage points. In terms of how the stock market could react on election day, options are pricing in volatility going higher, roughly a 3.6% one-day move for the S&P 500. Importantly, options are also telling us that there could be higher volatility in the weeks following the election. That's because of increased mail-in ballot use, which could mean it takes longer.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So speaking of unresolved, we're about a month out from the US election and we had our first presidential debate this week, if you can call that a debate. I don't know what it was exactly. Are your clients positioning themselves to the election and the aftermath?”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of a pretty rosy recovery. The derivatives market is reminding us that caution is still above normal levels. It's been a very wild year, to say the least, and it has raised a lot of questions that are still quite unresolved.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Changed by the pandemic. We've observed rents declining in dense cities as people move to the suburbs. Temporary layoffs becoming permanent in areas like retail that have trouble navigating an increasingly digital world and employers increasing flexibility around work from home where some surveys tell us that the number of full work days performed at home will roughly triple in the post-pandemic economy. To illustrate how these questions are influencing long-term market expectations, the S&P one year straddle, which means the cost of an at the money put and call, currently costs about 19%. That means market participants expecting 19% move higher or lower over the next one year. In a normal environment, that levels around 13%. What that means is while the current level of the equity market paints a picture”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, investor horizons have changed a lot in the last six months. The questions that we are getting have shifted from what's going to happen next week to how will the world look next year and beyond that. Uncertainty is now more centered on longer term, more philosophical questions. And I'll walk through some examples. Clients that I speak to are questioning the consequences of ultra-low rates and significant physical stimulus. The rate environment is also calling into question the viability of a traditional 60-40 stocks versus bond portfolio and has clients thinking about how they should protect gains and maintain upside given very limited return opportunities outside of equities. Lastly, there are just a lot of deeply existential questions about what segments to the economy will remain permanent.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A huge recovery, and the VIX has moved lower since we last spoke. Of course, low rates, government stimulus, and retail buying have been added tailwinds. With that said, the VIX does remain far above levels that we would consider normal. In the mid-20s, it's about 10 points above its average for the preceding five years, which tells us that uncertainty is still quite high.”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And recover from that has been truly remarkable. In terms of what we can read into this, I keep thinking about that Donald Rumsfeld quote about knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. But I think 2020 has taught or at least reminded all of us something about the unknown unknowns and the inherent unpredictability that can sometimes come into markets and life. And as investors brace themselves for the rest of 2020, I think we're now in an environment characterized much more by known unknowns. And what I mean by that is we've spent the last seven months obsessively processing risks around coronavirus, the upcoming US election and government support. And as a result, the market has just become much more familiar with and prepared for the very unique challenges of this year, which explains in part why the stock market has experienced such”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it was certainly a very different world when we last spoke. New York was several weeks away from the lockdown and terms like social distancing, self-isolating, and N95 were barely in our vocabulary. The market was just starting to sound some alarm bells, but the world was still operating in a relatively normal fashion. So when we taped the VIX was in the mid-30s and the S&P was around 2950, despite all that has happened since, today the VIX is actually lower in the mid-20s and the S&P is higher in the high 3300s. So if we had spent the last seven months on a desert island not looking at the news, which might have been preferable, at first glance we might look at the stock market today and assume that not much had happened. As we all know, this has been a year of extraordinary economic and social disruption, and the stock market's ability to weather”
2020-10-02 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT