YouSaid · the spoken record

Kristin J. Lemkau

lines on the record: 17
first: 2015-02-17
most recent: 2015-02-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And we like to worry, so we find a way. I just came back a few weeks ago from a visit to several countries in the Middle East. I think that's an interesting place to have conversations, obviously, about where we are on oil and supply demand. I think both there, as well as in my other travels outside of the Middle East, there's a key focus on is this a supply?”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure. Well, I think, first of all, you can never help but be fascinated by markets, right? It's hard to imagine a world maybe if we thought about it five years ago where if you went to the average person, average investor, and you said, what if oil prices came down? Would that be bad? They'd scratch their head, bad, no, that would be great. It would spur growth. It would allow investment. It would free up consumers, wallets. eighty things anybody could come up with that's good but here we are in 2015”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“growing their businesses. So that would allow them to then approach banks and the finance industry in a more interesting way that shows the potential of their business, whereas the focus on very small amounts of money or relying on personal credit rather than corporate credit is actually disservice to the value they can add to economies.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Time for equal quality businesses, equal growth businesses, getting access to the same credit. And this is happening for multiple reasons. In many countries, there are impediments based on the law. Does a woman get to own her business, actually? Or does it end up being transmitted if she's married? Does her husband actually own the business? So does he have to be involved in any loans? There's an experience issue. Have people been trained? Do they understand how to write a loan application? Is there any help at the banks for that? I think also we've been trying to work on helping women in small and medium enterprises in emerging markets around the world to think big. And women tend to be more conservative in their views of funding, just try to grow a small bit at a time. But in fact, they have very viable businesses and need to separate their personal finances from their corporate finances and think big when it comes to”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That adds to a boost to GDP, which is even unknown at the moment, but over the next twenty years could be tremendously important because a more educated workforce means their children will drive a better economy. They spend on health, which reduces cost for corporates. They focus on hiring additional workers, women and men, and having women in the workforce in many emerging markets also helps their demographics. So overall, in emerging markets, actually in developed markets too, like Japan, if we got women in the workforce, there's a tremendous engine of growth to be enjoyed. However, there are a lot of challenges. And I think we have to look at those as well when we consider the growth that women can drive in emerging markets. The credit gap is actually astonishing. Work done by ourselves, by the World Bank, by the IMF all distinctly show that for multiple reasons women have a much harder”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure well, I think women own businesses in the emerging markets are a fascinating space, not just because they're owned by women, but because they can drive such an enormous amount of growth for the emerging markets. If you look at places like India and China, women own significant businesses, and yet if they're denied access to capital, we're denied a significant engine of growth. For example, if you look at place like India and you think about women owned businesses getting access to the right capital, their GDP could grow significantly. That's women entering the workforce, but it's also saying, what would Indian GDP grow? People have mentioned numbers as much as 12 or 15% change in the GDP growth rate if you get women-owned businesses on the right track. In the emerging markets generally, women-owned businesses also set off an incredibly valuable positive cycle, a virtuous circle, so to speak. Women spend money on children's education.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“and would have expected maybe in prior years but it haven't been seeing of a billion person plus economy. So that's one we're very focused on where we think despite the up move you've already seen in 2014, there could be even more room to grow, particularly with lower oil prices that can spur corporate development. In other places it gets a bit tougher, right? I think we see opportunities in China, but I think you have to be selective. We've already seen a fair bit of growth and obviously some industries are more favorable than others. So it's a bit more maybe a stock picker's market than as an easier time. As you move outside those big two, obviously you get to a very different place when you look at maybe South America or you look at emerging Europe. And there are multiple factors to key in, but certainly currency is one that we'd be watching as well as the relative fiscal health. Whereas I think generally when you look around Asia, you feel”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, well, I definitely think there's a fair amount of divergence in emerging markets. And when we at GSAM take a look at emerging markets, we certainly key into a few factors. For example, I'll go back to energy prices again, because for many of the emerging markets, it's one of the most important inputs into the question of how fast they grow. One market that we've been looking at very closely, for that reason, as well as several others, is India. I think between the political change that's happened there, the seemingly successful then throughput of the promises of the Modi administration into action in terms of reducing bureaucracy, encouraging industry, the growth certainly you've already seen in the stock market all tie in to a view that all those factors plus the positive demographic outlook for India means that this could be a very vibrant and growing economy, one you would expect.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you're sitting in the US or in Europe, 5% actually shouldn't seem so bad. So the real question is how stable is that and the constant worry that maybe is there some impending crash of some segment of the Chinese market? I think what China has demonstrated, certainly to many investors' satisfaction and more importantly, what you feel on the ground in China to local investors satisfaction.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I was just in Beijing last week, and I have to say that things feel pretty good in China. I think one of the challenges always with China is obviously there's an immense size issue just to try to wrap your head around the growth that's happening there, but also there's a law of large numbers. And so certainly you've seen the world get spooked when they see maybe China not at 8 or 9% growth or even 7% growth. What if it's 6% or God forbid five percent? And we tend to forget those are on much higher numbers than they were in past, that kind of growth, and certainly those numbers are also on much more sizable contribution to the global economy than they were before.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Certainly those challenges weigh in also heavily to people's debate over where European equities can head, the funding to European corporates, especially to small and medium enterprises, is a bit choked up when you look at a system that doesn't allow as much to be determined by the capital markets, but instead is much more heavily dependent on banks. When you then tie in the QE, we were talking about earlier, that's why people worry that the transmission may not make it through. If banks in Europe are still under heavy pressure with Basel III coming to hold even more capital, does the money just end up on their balance sheet rather than out there in the market driving new opportunities and growth in existing and in new businesses, especially SMEs? So that's a real challenge. I think what people are looking to the European Union for is some action in conjunction with what you've seen the ECB do to make sure the trends”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think that on the global growth front vis- ⁇-vis European companies, people are looking at a couple of items. Certainly the lowering of oil prices would be expected to help a number of the European corporates, in some ways more than even the European economies as a whole, because the taxes on energy prices are so much higher in Europe. There's not a direct transmission to the European consumer. But when you think about European corporates that are active on the world stage, it's definitely a boost for them in terms of production costs and competitiveness. Then you move on to where are their markets. And in fact, when you look at European companies that have been some of the most successful on the multinational front, they've been developing new markets. So what does that key write into? How's China doing? I wonder how European multinationals doing a large car company and a German car manufacturer. You may turn your eyes to the east.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure. Half of income in European companies comes from outside Eurozone. What will help build investor confidence in the region? I mean, obviously this lowers their cost base at some level and presumably the ones with exposure to global growth will do a little bit better.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The fear would certainly be that it's not enough, the fear would also be about the relative competitiveness of each of the markets. I think that the state of reform in each country is vastly different. If you look at Germany, for example, there's been extensive amount of economic reforms to try to make things as competitive as possible, whether it's in terms of the labor market or on the international scene. Whereas if you look at France, there's a long way to go. So there's potentially a lot of divergence within Europe, and that could mean that the ECB's action doesn't mean that the rising tide lifts all boats.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On the Swiss currency, they expect different things. They certainly were surprised by the action by the Swiss, and I think that what that tells you about central bank coordination globally is that certainly on currencies, you could see a lot of divergent moves as currency moves impact the competitiveness of economies on a relative basis. I think that will weigh into the many other things the Fed will be considering. And the view at GCAM at least is that we won't see significant Fed action until at least late in the year.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, well, I think generally it's been very interesting to see client reaction and overall market sentiment around central bank action. I think that perhaps people expected central banks would be more coordinated because that's been the recent experience. But I think coordination is generally expected more around times of crisis. We've gotten used to it due to the financial crisis, and we're seeing they're not so coordinated all the time after all, nor do they need to be. When you look at what the ECB is doing, I think they did come through with action on QE that the market expected and in a size that was expected. The key question will be will it transmit to growth for your Europe. And that's still an area where there is still some concern among clients, although they are starting to look at and put investment into European equities, but more focus perhaps on companies with exposure to global growth. When they look to the Fed or they look at the recent action by the SMB,”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think the year has already started off with a bang. Certainly at GSAM, as I look around the world, I've been to about 12 countries in the last two months, and clients are looking at 2015 as a year of change. They're very focused on what the Fed might do. They are taking harder looks at equities around the world more than ever. There's a fair bit of confidence in US growth, which is great to see, and hopes that the lowering of oil prices will lead to boost of the global growth sentiment and economies. But I do think there is undertones and shades of concern, and we're watching those as well around interest rates, around deflation. So a lot to watch.”
2015-02-17 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Global Growth Landscape · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT