YouSaid · the spoken record

Kristof Gleich

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56
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2023-03-17
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2023-03-17
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  1. “I think we have a sticky inflation problem. And I think going from a nine handle down to a six or a five is going to prove to be much easier than kind of going from here back to 2%. So I think we should get used to higher levels of stickier inflation and the volatility that that's going to bring in markets. And I think we're going to have shorter market cycles within that. And I think what we're experiencing at the moment is an upward trend. But I would caution to believe that we're at the beginning of a, you know, a new.”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “In the high fives at the time, wage inflation was running five and a half, six percent, and you actually had some downward revisions to historical data and suddenly it was running in the fours again. So I think there was this phrase that's been used. I'm not sure if you've heard it, the immaculate disinflation. And I think the bull argument is that we were going to have this immaculate disinflation. You marry that up with the pessimism earlier. You set the stage for a pretty strong rally, which is what we've seen. I think a soft landing, you know, inflation disappearing going back to 2%. I think it's fanciful thinking, frankly. I mean, inflation is here. We see it every day. We see it in the grocery store. And you see it in the numbers. And whether it was last week's PCE data, European inflation came out this week, surprising to the upside. If you look at the employment payroll numbers.”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “I think while the bulls are standing behind is, and you know, what's been surprising to the upside this year has been how strong the economy has remained and how high nominal growth still is. Ultimately, nominal growth drives nominal wages. And there was a fear that the economy was headed for a, I think, an abrupt hard landing and the debate three or four months ago was about when the recession is going to hit if it's not already here is it going to be q1 or q2 of this year clearly it isn't going to be q1 and it's unlikely going to be q2 if at all this year so i think just again that what the balls are kind of getting behind is it wasn't nearly as bad as what was being priced in at the time and as i said some of the wage pressures that were running”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Actually, been in a recession. So, what does that do? It sets the stage for markets have this habit, this wonderful habit of causing the most amount of pain to the most amount of people. And when sentiment is that one-sided, it is not unusual to get just a relief rally. And I think that's where things began. And it began to gain momentum. And what happened, we began to get new data points on the economy. That headline inflation was rolling over and some of the more worrying indicators like wage inflation has actually been revised down a little bit. And so we went from a very bearish sentiment and positioning team hard landing and then we transitioned to sort of a softer landing and there's more, I would say, optimism now, certainly in the equity markets that we're going to have a soft landing.”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Some of the largest fund managers across the world consistently with the same questions. It's good quality data. So you can look at time series of responses and really learn a lot. So what did the fund manager survey of October tell us last year? It told us that sentiment and positioning was crisis level bearish. You can look at it a few different ways. If you looked at the amount of cash held on average, it was a kind of crisis point highs. So you'd have to go back to sort of a 2008 or COVID environment to see it as high. If you looked at equity underweights versus overweights, equity were underweight, as they have been in prior crises. And then finally, if you looked at the economic indicators of a recession and the percentage of people that thought we were already in a recession was a reading so high, it's only ever corresponded to times that we.”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “I think bipolar is a good start, Trey. What I would say is the headline is Team Soft Landing is Winning. And that's what's happening in the markets at the moment. Thing to understand what's happening so far this year. Let's just go back a little bit further to October of 2022 when the S&P in its most recent bottom and then sort of understand where we were then. We were in the midst of a historical interest rate hike last year. You know, the Fed has effectively gone from zero to near 5% in about 12 months, which is quite some hiking cycle. And so what did that mean last year? There was obviously a lot of volatility and sentiment got very, very bearish. And there's different ways that you can look at market sentiment, positioning. One of my favorite and most simple is the Bank of America Mary Lynch fund manager survey. It comes out once a month.”

    2023-03-17 · We Study Billionaires · TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT