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Lael Brainard

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29
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2024-01-09
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2024-01-09
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  1. About housing affordability, that's going to be a major focus of the president in the months ahead. And we are going to continue calling out corporations who are not passing along cost savings to consumers as well as those who are pricing in ways that are deceptive and lead to bigger bills at the end of the purchase process that then consumers were led to believe. So our work is not done. We are going to continue fighting on behalf of consumers to lower cost.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Core inflation over the six the last six months. Most forecasters just said that couldn't be done. I mean, if you look at the forecasters a year ago, there was a lot of recession calls and a lot of those forecasters saying you couldn't get inflation as far down as it is today without seeing a lot of unemployment. That has not happened. And that, again, is because we were very focused on the supply side of the economy and the president wanted to support the recovery rather than withdraw support. So in terms of on a go forward basis, we're going to continue our work because too many things are still too expensive for Americans. We talked a little bit about healthcare. We've got a really robust agenda to bring down prescription drug costs. We talked

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. So we are really pleased with how well the economy has performed under 4% unemployment rate for 23 months in a row, another 2.7 million jobs created over the last year alone, 14.3 since the beginning of President Biden's time in office, and inflation that has come down now to the 2%.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Together, all the agencies in a streamlined process rather than going through what in previous administrations was kind of a laborious agency by agency review that in many cases took very many years. So we are looking for kind of game-changing mechanisms to make that permitting process easier while still respecting the really important equities of local stakeholders.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. So, two separate really important points that you're making. One is we do need localities to create changes in zoning. And so we have a pro housing grant program, which is first of its kind that provides those kinds of incentives to help those communities that do remove barriers to housing production so that they get support for that. And we have a similar kind of program using Department of Transportation Transit funding. On the side of clean energy and ships investments and infrastructure investments, there too, a lot of attention has been given to permitting, to accelerate the ability to make those investments by having a much more streamlined review at the federal level that brings

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. With transit dollars, we're getting localities to unlock areas for more dense housing, and we think that'll make a really big difference over time as well. And the final thing I'd just say is that with office vacancy rates being a bit higher in some downtown areas, we've also got some programs to encourage office to residential conversions in downtown areas.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Would lead to about 1.2 million additional affordable homes and a second tax credit that would mean about 500,000 more affordable homes for first-time homebuyers. The president has proposed relief for first-generation homebuyers and renters to help lower costs. And I think we really are going to be pushing hard on Congress to get those policies done. Congress, the Republican House in particular has not supported a lot of improvements on affordable housing, but we're going to continue working really hard. And additionally, we're trying to incentivize changes in local zoning policies in a lot of cases near transit hubs by providing incentives.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Yeah. So you're exactly right, making housing more affordable is central to so many Americans, whether they be first time aspirational homebuyers or whether that is people who are renting, bringing down the costs of housing for Americans is really important. The good news is we have actually seen mortgage rates come down by about one and a half percentage point just in the last few months on the back of the really good inflation data that we've been seeing. So that's very encouraging. But the present also has a very forward-leaning agenda there to ensure that there are many more affordable units. We have been supporting tax credits.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Very substantially, and that's what we're seeing. We're seeing gas prices at the pump below $3 in most parts of America. So those two things are both important to the president. And I think we are seeing real progress on both.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. The president has passed historic legislation to help this economy transition in the most resilient and dynamic way to a clean energy future. So that really has been a huge focus on his part to make sure that the U.S. is a leader on technologies that are going to reduce emissions and a leader on clean energy and electric vehicle investments. At the same time, during this transitional period, he's been very focused on making sure that American consumers have the ability to have a little extra money at the end of the month. And that has meant working really hard to get what were very distorted high prices at the pump down.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. And then taking enforcement actions and creating rules about transparency of those prices, we are starting to see some real progress, but it's not enough. And in the area of healthcare in particular, we have legislative tools to enable drug prices for the first time to be negotiated with Medicare. And we expect that to make a big difference.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Yeah, that really hasn't been the approach that this administration has taken at all. It has been to use the authorities we have at our regulatory agencies to go after fees that are deceptive, fees that are not transparent, fees on ticketing or fees on hotels. You know, we've had the president meet with people who for instance Becky Chong from Oregon came to a junk fees event at the White House and she talked about how she and her husband took her two daughters to see their grandparents last summer and they were surprised to see unexpected junk fees on their hotel bill that totaled over $100. So partly by just making these practices very transparent.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. On family seating fees or extra baggage fees, we've seen actions that the administration has taken on overdraft fees and bounce check fees and will continue to push really hard and take action where necessary in areas like ticketing fees, other areas where American consumers are just kind of fed up with seeing these extra charges.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. They are now back down to levels that we saw pre-pandemic and input costs also have come down. So what is really troubling is that corporations need to pass those input cost declines on to consumers. And so that consumers can see the benefit of that in their weekly budgets. And the president has been very clear about how important that is. We've done a lot of work to fix those supply chains. Now corporations need to make those input cost reductions available to consumers in terms of their final price. And we're also taking action where we have enforcement tools on deceptive or unfair pricing. And so you've seen actions in areas like airlines.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. Yeah, so we have seen, and you can see it in the data, that when supply chains were snarled and input prices were going up, that a lot of big corporations raised their prices to consumers by as much or more, which meant that their markups went up, which some people have referred to as a price price spiral. And the president has been very focused on this because if you look at supply chain measures, they look like a very sharp spike upward to a level of supply chain disruptions that we really don't see in the data prior to 2020. And then they come down extremely sharply over the course of 2023 so that

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Well, gas prices are so important for weekly budgets and the kind of kitchen table economics focus of this administration is very much trying to make sure that people have a little breathing room at the end of each month after paying their bills. So that reduction in gas prices at the pump to about two, I want to say it's just a touch below three dollars median price that Americans are seeing around the country. And in a lot of states, they're seeing lower prices than that. That is a very meaningful amount of relief. It's about a dollar 90 down from what we saw a year ago. And of course, we're also seeing some grocery store prices coming down. But in terms of your question, the present also has a huge clean energy.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. For prescription drugs at $2,000. So that will start to make a dent there, but we're going to continue pushing on healthcare costs as well as other areas, which are really more about deceptive pricing, where Americans feel like they're just spending more than they should.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Really feel confident that the good economic numbers that they're seeing and their own good personal situations is actually going to be sustained. And part of that is some prices have not come down. And we're fighting pretty hard to get those prices to come down. One area that really is difficult for Americans is healthcare affordability. And so you've had a huge set of really important initiatives that the president has been focused on. For instance, in the legislation that was passed about a year ago, it actually brings down the cost of insulin for the first time from $400 a month to $35 a month for seniors in some companies have extended that more broadly. And it caps the yearly out of pocket costs for seniors.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Yeah, so it's a good question. I mean, if you do look at both household incomes adjusted for inflation, really strong improvement since before the pandemic. And secondly, if you look at wealth, median household wealth is up by 37% inflation adjusted since before the pandemic. So the best year of the previous administration. So in terms of personal finances, you do actually see Americans reporting with a large majority that they are doing okay financially and job satisfaction is quite high, but it's been a very stressful few years for Americans if you think about the number of layoffs, the number of small businesses that shuttered, and then the surge of inflation that was on the supply side. And it may take a little bit of time for Americans to

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. More spending on clean energy transition, fixing infrastructure that really needed to be fixed. And of course, investing in industries of the future like semiconductor. So, you know, we've got that strong investing in America agenda along with a strong recovery attracting people back into the labor force, into these good jobs of the future.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Record, and I think it reflects the president's own views that this was not a normal kind of recovery and he focused on two things. One on making sure that as many Americans were able to stay in their homes, come back into the labor force quickly, maintain their household balance sheets. So you had a much more equitable recovery and it was also a much stronger recovery that attracted a lot of Americans back into the labor force. So instead of seeing the great resignation, we've seen the great rebound in terms of the workforce. And then the second thing, he put a tremendous amount of focus on the supply side of the economy, which was really the source of a lot of the distortions. And he's got an agenda of investing in America and investing in Americans that has an Ongoing focus on more RD spending.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. Force and then just on top of that, we got this massive oil price shock by Russians invasion of Ukraine. And just a year ago, don't forget, we navigated a regional banking crisis all while interest rates were rising. But if you look at the strength

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Earning and continue being able to spend and to power the economy going forward. So while I think we are seeing slowing growth, which would make sense at this point in a very strong recovery, nonetheless, the wages, the record union contracts that we have seen over the last year bode really well for the ability of households to continue spending and to continue fueling the economy. Do you have an explanation for why the labor market has held up as well as it has given a sort of historic interest rate shock over the last 18, 24 months? Well, look, I think it is remarkable, actually, just how much this president has navigated through. If you think about it, the pandemic, which scrambled supply chains and led to a historic number of people out of the labor.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Job Of people Have to hold multiple jobs, how are you thinking about, I guess, the quality of jobs as well as the I think the overall statistics are very strong in terms of the quality of jobs as well. We've had wage growth that is exceeding inflation now, not just relative to when the president took office, but also relative to the strongest pre-pandemic year. So wages are up by an amount that means most households can spend, you know, $3,500 of extra spending after buying the same things they would have purchased pre-pandemic. Wealth is also up. And the fact that so many Americans are employed that the employment of population ratio for working age Americans is very high, higher than pre-pandemic means that those people are going to continue

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. Back that the labor market looks really strong. If you think about it, it started 2023 with unemployment already below 4%, and it maintained that. In fact, it's been below 4% now for just about two years, which I think is, we haven't seen that for 50 years. And even despite the fact that we started the year from a position of low unemployment, the economy created an additional 2.7 million jobs, which is really a record. And in terms of thinking about the economy going forward, the growth of the economy has been quite good. Productivity has been up, and inflation has actually come down during this time of strong employment growth. So that also looks like a pretty healthy economy.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. Well, on that note, I really think we do have the perfect guest to start the year to discuss the state of the economy where it's going, what policy levers might yet to be pulled as we go through 2024. I'm thrilled to welcome her first time coming onto the Odd Lots podcast, Lail Brainerd, director of the National Economic Council. Leel Brainerd, thank you so much for coming on Odlots. Really appreciate you joining us. Why don't we just get started? So on Friday we had the latest December non-farm payrolls report. Headline looked pretty solid. Unemployment, wages, job creation better than expected. But we did see some weakening in measures like labor force participation rate, prime age employment to population, U6 measures of underemployment. Is there anything that concerns you right now about the momentum of the labor market as we head into 2024? Well, I have to say taking a step.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Yeah, and it's legitimate. Like some of the measures have gone down. So I genuinely, I find myself, and plus the crowd gets it wrong a lot. So it seems like we're tempting fate by believing too much in the soft landing story. But it really does feel to me like, you know, there are many moving parts to this economy. You mentioned some of the sentiment measures, but there's also the fact that even with the inflation improvement, housing is still incredibly expensive. And there's all kinds of frustrations around that. So I don't think we will ever reach the end where we could say, okay, we know what's going on in the economy right now. We're always just going to sort of be searching for more threads to follow.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. No, there's no question. At the end of last year, like soft landing optimism really picked up. But you could tell me any story right now, and I would believe it. You could say, oh, financial conditions are easing quite a bit. Stock markets at all-time high or close to all-time high. Rates are falling. The labor market is tight. Wage growth just came in higher than expectations. There's still upward risk of inflation. You could tell me, oh, U6 and various measures of the labor market actually weakened last month. Maybe the economy is not as on solid footing as we thought or two months ago. Like any story you told me, I might believe you.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Tracy, New Year. I think so far in 2024, I do not feel any more clear or confident that I have some real deep sense of which way this economy is going.

    2024-01-09 · Odd Lots · Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source