YouSaid · the spoken record

Lakshman Achuthan

lines on the record: 138
first: 2014-11-29
most recent: 2014-11-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And then you'll do a Absolutely. There's the weekly leading index there, the future inflation gauge is there. The business cycle dates are all there for 21 economies around the world, so including all the bricks. And that's all at businesscycle.com.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you're reactive, You're not forward looking, which is what the system is, then you don't see that and you miss the opportunity.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why are we still already? So that would have been a moment to back off if we had to. We could have come back. You always reserve the right to come back. But at that moment, you've got the cycle going the other way. But here”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay. Maybe But yeah, no, Lane 08, fine. But when you're on the other side, when you've gone through and you're finding out the other side, we still need it.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then, but Barry also in March and April of 2009 that we're forecasting a recovery. Now, if you were asking me, do we need emergency central bank intervention towards the end of 2009 or into 2010? I don't think I could have argued for it.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You guys have left this on my doorstep and I don't have the tools. This is the big switcheroo that happened, okay? You have the Great Recession, and then you have the central bank come in and say, oh, it's not structural.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, which they've been trying to do in theory, and they just can't do it. That's an interpretation. I'm not going to hold my breath on that. Because basically they're all economists, right? They all got these models. And models, at their very root, do not forecast recessions because they extrapolate things. Right. So what they're saying is, oh, look, it grew a couple of percent last quarter. It's going to grow a couple percent next quarter, although they're never going to forecast a recession.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, right. On this one of these days. I'm glad this isn't how to fix the US economy in three easy steps. I think my efforts are best spent on buying cycle risk. Are you going to actually make...”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But actually, we're a mirror image of that. And both of us are actually kind of following a track that Japan laid out is there in front of us on it. And so... I don't think we can really reasonably claim that we're different here”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“See, you know, and when we look at the statistics on the United States and on Europe and on Japan in particular, The patterns are basically the same. I know that people here look across the pond at continental Europe and we say, yeah, you guys got problems. Yeah, you have some inflation issues. Right.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You see, so this also bugs me a little bit because at some point that volatility comes back. And that when you're at low altitude. Makes for a bumpy ride. And we don't even have interest rates anywhere where you can lower them. So this is why I have some anxiety.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you're behind the curve, if you think about an engineering kind of thing and the way it feeds back, it actually makes the cycle bigger. And they're behind it in a big way. Right. Remember.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, the problem with the great moderation is that if you look at it closely, the best explanation is we were lucky. It's not that the Fed did anything particularly helpful. And when you look at Fed policy over time, you find that they're very reactive, including the most recent cycle. They were late to the game. Yeah, totally. They've been trying to make up for it in size. And that's actually pro-cyclical. Because if you're behind the higher.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Only with vampires and werewolves. The other component is if you have this theoretical preemptive Fed policy. Where if they're ahead of the cycle, not behind it, then they could act counter cyclically. When there's a run up in the cycle, they could tamp it down. When there's a downturn, they can cut off the bottom a little bit, smooth out the extreme, and smooth the volatility a little bit towards a la the great moderation, right?”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or if they're three minutes, it might as well be a giant conveyor belt. That's a good example. But these things, I don't think there's any one silver bullet here. It never is.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Listen, you're preaching to the choir. I mean, every day when you go into the office, someone's like, oh my gosh, I was stuck for, we're here in New York City. And I was stuck in the subway for 20 minutes because XYZ happens. See, I only take.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're probably talking about different ideas around infrastructure and education and things of this nature. And I'm not an expert on either of those, but those are areas where those are productivity-enhancing type policies that you want to be thinking about. Give me...”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So wheel always turns. I mean, there are lots of policy challenges that we have, but the main one is that our trend growth is so low.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Then they'll be able to sell more debt. But their ongoing debt is going to be more expensive. They can't service it. Damned if you do need to believe the Fed in the US that they want to get out of this game and that they're serious about getting out of it. And that the plan is that the economy needs to reach escape velocity soon. And I'm afraid on that last part.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, they are. They are. And if you start to think too much about it, it gets bothersome. But let's not think too much about it just yet. And just a couple of weeks ago, there was no private bid for a JGB for a day and a half.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At least they know what it comes looking for. And that's even kind of a weird concept if you think too hard about it. People”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Their own. The Japanese treasury market is the second largest treasury market in the world. And the Bank of Japan owns most of it They're lending”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's two generations. If they're 25, 4 or 5 years into this thing, right? So here they are, and they own a ton of their treasury market.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That glass is broken. There's nothing there. So look, we're not Japan. Japan is so different than us. We have a lot of things going for us that they don't. But when you look at them and they're into their third lost decade, I don't even think people understand that.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Having interest rates high enough that you could on a tactical basis reduce an interest rate from the central bank because the fiscal side can't move that quickly. Now, I know we're not.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the economy, we will. We will. It's not even if. The idea that you're not going to go into a recession is just far so ludicrous. It will happen. And I would feel much better if I was on the policy responsible for policy or just even as an American if we had an interest rate to cut”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the ultimate Randy and free marketer who refused. Here you go. So here, you know, you might argue under certain emergency moments you have to do things, but at what point is the emergency over? And when do we get to see what it feels like without the pain medicine and where we really are? Because that 10 years ago.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Free. But you have this Don't have to disclose it. You know, this is true. And interest rates are very important component of the free market. For sure. And when you Interfere and put your thumb on the scale, control, manage, control. Look, isn't that even the opposite of what a free market is, by the way? That was always the greatest.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think people feel that and look at, you can look around at other major developed economies and you look at Europe and they're Sick in many ways, and you look at Japan and they're sick in many ways for decades. Do we really want to do the same thing? I mean, can we consider something else?”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All of them, what is this notion? This is what I would really push back against, is what is this notion that we can do all kinds of crazy things in the name of avoiding a recession? That is a really silly thing for policymakers to actually do because the price you're paying. Relates to significant components of the future. And we're feeling it that now. I think people dramatically”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, and again, taking that really big picture over a couple of centuries, 47 recessions in 222 years, some of them were bad, some of them were mild, but we've survived.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because I'm on the same page as you are. Yeah, I mean, look at then you're going to say, I don't want you to try to fix it. I want someone new. Right. That's right. That's kind of what you're going to say. Not only do I do.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, a greater recession among other things may have resulted in a more wholesale change in Washington. You had. You see, because it takes a lot, like people.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Go back And it's a false setup to even think that we can avoid recessions. I think that's part of the bad framing here. And if we want to go down the road of like different scenarios, what might have happened, I sometimes wonder.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You guys are not going to be able to fix this one. You don't know that it would be a good. I'm just telling you exactly if she was telling the truth, that that's what she was saying”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I thought it was kind of funny that you're telling a retiree to go find a job. And that's the plan. Isn't that weird?”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And she responds, and it was an amazing moment of, I'm going to say cognitive dissonance, where she says, well, my policies, or our, I think Chairman Bernanke's policies that she was saying she was going to continue. Know they shouldn't look at it that way. They should look at it that these policies are giving them an economy that”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It wasn't McCain, Junior Seven. Someone I don't know, probably junior center. And so he says, you know, Miss Yellen, my constituents have done everything that they were supposed to do. They worked, they saved for their retirement. They worked out their budget. They set everything up. And your policies are crushing them because of the zero interest rates. No.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's framed upon. Now, I'm not going to get the quote exactly right, but I'm going to be able to paraphrase this. I want to go to the other end of the spectrum to retirees. And during Yellen's confirmation, I think it was a Senate confirmation here. Yes, it has to be. And there was...”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If they had jobs. They're risk averse. They're Because their peer group is in the same situation. There's something kind of like, I think, you know, in an earlier generation, if you lived at home, it was like, ah, what are you doing? You got to get out, right? Because your peers were.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you're the one who told me. But they're loaning them. When the policy is to borrow That's right. And I don't know how the whole student loan thing will get reconciled, but at some point that'll have to.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Season, I'm not listening. So the policy instead is, oh, you know, don't worry, don't freak out, be happy. Interest rates will stay low. Spend money. Go borrow some money. Shut up and consume. And if you default, it was your fault.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it looks like five, ten years it's not happening, right? And so if that is indeed true, and I think I can argue. Then shouldn't our policies consider that possibility? No.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As we've learned. See, so this is where you see where the policy of, I think, denying what is happening is dangerous. We're not going back to 3% trend growth.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Has a disproportionate impact to you. You see, and it goes back to needs and wants. And I think what may be happening is that you're right. The energy components, say, at the gas tank is a smaller fraction of your family budget than it used to be. But what's happening is that you don't have a lot of money left over for discretionary spending at the end of the day. And that is making you either go into your savings or take out credit. And taking out credit, which worked out so...”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The same thing. There's no food inf I was talking with somebody who was writing an article, and they're basically like, are you going to believe the statistic or you're lying eyes? I mean, we all know, we all are.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure, sure, sure. And that's a very interesting way to get at where prices are now. And we think that's very interesting. It's a coincidence indicator. It doesn't really tell you anything about the future. But that's still a nice alternate data set. We look at the BLS data. We look PPI CPI GDP deflator, all of these items we're looking at.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, nothing that I can officially speak of or anything like that. What I can talk about is that earlier there was a close personal relationship between my mentor, Jeffrey Moore and Chairman Greenspan. And Bernanke was probably aware of all of that. And I do know that The central banks are aware of our stuff, and in particular the future inflation gauge, right? Because they'd love to see some inflation. They're looking for actors. They would love to see some inflation in anywhere in Europe too, in Europe too. And these future inflation gauges for the Eurozone and for the US have been down weak for an extended period of time. Recently, at the end of last year, the Future Inflation Gate started to pick up a little bit, but it seems to have stalled out, which is kind of a...”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then we get something like Q1. Now, I'm not saying Q1 GDP as weak as it was unrelated to weather. I think weather had a lot to do with it, obviously. And so we will get some bounce back from that. But that I suspect is noise. I think the trend. Inside of that remains down. And when we look at the forward indicators, there's no imminent lift that's there. And so you look at The thinking on the economy, and there seems to be confusion. There's still a relatively kind of optimistic 2014. We're going to get escape velocity, so on and so forth, but there are serious signals like bond yields, for example, that are saying, you know, there's something happening. Maybe it's geopolitical stuff. Maybe it's something else we don't know exactly, but it doesn't fit this picture of everything's green light. Right.”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That was last June, July. No, this was last spring. Yeah, it's over a year ago. And so what this is saying is that when we go back to what is a cycle, why is there one? It's part of the free market, that there were these endogenous cyclical forces that had been rolling over before Bernanke opens his mouth, before the bad weather”
2014-11-29 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: COO of ECRI Lakshman Achuthan (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source