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Larry Ingrassia

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2020-02-12
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2020-02-12
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  1. It is out. Came out a couple of days ago. Any place that you can buy online? It'll be in bookstores. You can find links at www.larryngra.comsi.com have you started.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Revolution in Christian brands possible marketing, you know, kind of outsourcing. There's a whole chapter on which we haven't shacked at, which I found fascinating, on logistics and distribution. I had to become a little bit of a data. I had to become a little bit of an expert on those areas. So it was kind of working to kind of get up to speed on all of those things. And finally, some of these founders are like really busy, not surprising. Especially when I started talking to them a couple years ago, companies are small. They don't have a lot of time. So it was trying to kind of get their time. But, you know, kind of in the end, it was a very rewarding experience. And I think it really gives a look at, you know, kind of a corner of a big corner because the consumer economy in the US, you know, consumer products is trillions of dollars of the US economy and how it is evolving and where it's going.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Think there's something specific about this. And the writing as an editor, you're doing a lot of writing, you're kind of helping people shape and helping think about the structure and everything. So I had that. I hadn't covered this topic. Right? You know, unlike somebody like John Kerrywue, who wrote the great, great book Bad Blood, who covered that for the Wall Street Journal, had kind of scads of sources. You know, for me, it was kind of getting back into like, I've got to build sources here. And, you know, you start with one person and you get another person, but that took time. I didn't have a database to start. And the second thing is because I was looking at the different aspects of what made this.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. We talked about early in this conversation you hadn't regularly written since you were an editor for so long in a long time, a couple decades. What was the hardest thing about getting back to reporting and writing when it came to this book?

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  5. Than they want. I think they don't want to rely on Amazon. But again, it gets to the point let's go to customers R. A lot of people go to Amazon. Okay. So I think the smart companies are trying to do this in a way that is a win-win situation. So for example, Tuftle has an Amazon-only brand. Lower price point. I think Casper does too. So we're not selling everything on Amazon. We're doing something that will kind of spread our brand name, kind of work for us, but it's a huge marketplace. you know, kind of, and to ignore it, it's a little like saying we're going to ignore physical retail. You know, you can't up to a point. But to keep growing, maybe it's not a bad idea. I think you have to have a very well conceived, well thought out strategy for doing that. So it's not a win for Amazon and a lose for you.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. One last thing on this and one other question I'll let you get out of here. Numbers twos and threes are starting to have to do things they didn't want to do, like go to Amazon and say, you know what? Maybe we will sell wholesale to you. I wonder what you think of that idea that Amazon is recruiting a lot of these companies very, very hard. Did you come across anything that told you that we may see more of these brands having to not only sell to Amazon, but perhaps rely on a company like Amazon more than they want?

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. You know, do they make much money on it? No. But does it tell the consumer, we're listening to you? You're part of this. You can have a say in our company. Similar glossier, another example I have in the story. There's an African-American woman in Atlanta. She had started a blog called Glossier or Twitter kind of hashtag Glossier Brown commenting on stuff. One point she said, you know, I really like their products, but they don't have shades for darker colored African American women. She didn't say anything to the company. The company saw that. They contacted her. They said, hey, can you come up to our office in New York and maybe tell us what colors and shades you think that we ought to have? And they did. So these are companies that connect and listen to their customers, I think, in a far better way, in a personalized way than big companies. And, you know, kind of, that's another element.

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  8. And a giant category. That gets, you know, kind of look at the size of the category. So Harry's from the start used to shipped its first razor when you bought it with a plastic cover for the cartridge. Most people got it, you know, kind of open it up, throw away the plastic cartridge shave, and then they get ready to go traveling and they throw it in their travel kit. And they say, the shaving kit, and they say, oh, kind of, I wish I had that cover because blade won't get dull and I won't reach in. Have you ever done that? I did that once. Kind of reached in and kind of sliced my finger. And enough people asked me.

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  9. A lifestyle company, and there's a chapter on luggage and how it came out the winner in that category. And others went by the wayside. And I think it is a connect to consumer. And so I do think that you point out that is probably the big risk there that there is an expectation that this is my brand. They feel an ownership brand. I have a nice little anecdote in the book about Harry's, which also shows, by the way, that you can have more than one winner in a category. Yeah.

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  10. Some people. So, you know, these are called direct to consumer companies because that's how many of them started at. I also like to think of them as Connect to consumer companies. More than most consumer products, they really try to connect with their customers. I mean, if you look at Third Love's advertising, again, it's very much we're for all women. Whatever your body looks like, you know, kind of you don't have to be look like a model the way that Third Love's marketing, I mean, excuse me, the way that Victoria's Secrets marketing kind of makes is targeted. You can be, and that is a message that really resonates with a lot of customers. Michael Dubin's Dollar Shave Club, you know, our blades are fucking great. You know, with his target, it really resonates. It connects. And so I think that many of these companies, and a way the reason I think that it succeeded is.

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  11. It's also interesting to me this topic because these brands and the people who are regular consumers of them who grow to love them, they expect more from them than a traditional brand. Whether or not that's fair, some of these companies build themselves on that on sort of that idea. And so as we watch whether there is a sales impact, that's just one thing that makes me think maybe it could be different.

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  12. Yeah, and I think if you make a good product and good customer experience, and the company learns from Spain, I know that one of the co-founders came back and she was going to leave, but learns from her sake, I think people can be pretty forgiving. In fact, I think if you look, you know, kind of all the second X in American business history, you know, American political history, you'll find that people can come back. And so I don't think it's going to have a permanent unless there is a deep ongoing problem. I don't think necessarily it's going to have a permanent effect.

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  13. That the founder might Yes, yeah, understood. And also they're founders of startups. Not many of them have run things before. They're kind of learning as they go and making mistakes as they go. So it's not to excuse any of that. I think the bigger question here is were those problems so big that it's going to cause problems for their brands? And I actually don't think so. Now, I did watch kind of some of the reaction to a way, oh, I'm never going to buy their product and, you know, oh my God, I didn't realize that. I think that's momentary. I think if we'll see.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. Took advantage of it They inspect her the founder. Yeah, there's also some accusations of really tough management there. And I think what we're seeing is startups are tough. And some people are expected to kill themselves or a founder may think a whole company is expected to kill themselves Founders of Star, some of the lowest paid people with the least upside that are being asked the same thing that the founder might think themselves, it can create real problems.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. We've talked about how competitive some of these categories are. I'm not excusing this stuff, for example, some of the crazy stuff in a way the email messages and abrading people. I'm sure that they're very embarrassed about that. The third love stuff I thought was a little bit more ridiculous, you know, kind of, I know what you're talking about at one point. got in a kind of spat with Victoria took advantage of it. They were taking out an adult to people how different they were from Victoria's Secret. And I think they wrote the ad and they inspected the founder kind of, you know, kind of said, hey, I want to change some of this. And I think we can do better or whatever. And some of the people were offended that a guy kind of did that. Well, excuse me. He's the co-founder with his wife. This is a big moment for the company. I'm sorry.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. Why that might be? I didn't hear a lot of that because I was more interested in the how of these companies happening. A couple of thoughts, though, after reading those stories, which were interesting pieces. One, these are startups, you know, kind of anybody working at a startup is going to have to kind of kill themselves. I don't know care if you're the founder or if you're kind of a call center person. I mean, it's tough. It's like live or die.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. The customer service topic is something that's come up related to these companies recently in the press. There has been some coverage by some of our sister publications about alleged growth at all cost type cultures at a couple of these companies. Third loves one, a ways another. I'm curious if you, in your reporting, came across any of that. And either way, sort of what do you think of why that might be?

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. Right, in fact, sometimes we've made it for the brand name people, and we've got a separate line over here for Yuru, but we'll kind of like, you know, kind of run these in parallel. So the quality of all products, I think, has improved and that customer experience, that customer differentiation, getting back to Warby Parker called up their customer service, you know, which they call customer experience. Within six to ten seconds, somebody's going to answer the phone. They're all based in the US and they realize that, you know, especially when you're dealing with something like prescription and you want to kind of check something out and you want to have a very clear and easy conversation. Many of their call center, they don't even call them call center again, customer experience reps are college graduates, you know, kind of people who can really help you. And they use those as jumping off points to learn about the industry and go elsewhere. But it's a win-win situation for Warby and for the customer.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Or so versus $750 or so. Again, they've got that was a customer experience thing. So, you know, even in those categories, I mean, I think you're right. There may be more product differentiation, but a lot of products are becoming a bit commoditized because the Asian manufacturers have been so good. They used to just take your order and produce whatever you, you know, kind of gave them. Now they'll say, hey, you know, your design could be improved by doing this or this or this because why? We've made millions of them for other people. Yeah.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. Six months later, I got a new prescription, but I had a really good experience. I felt good about it. They were like totally fine, right? It doesn't work for you. It doesn't work for you. Please think about us next time. I got a new prescription, new optomet And thought, okay, I need, why don't I try them again? This time, first time, boom They've kind of won me over as a customer.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. Anymore, right? And so I think a lot of them are competing on, we talked about marketing, but also on customer experience. Sure. You know, kind of, so Warby Parker, I think that is like hugely important to their success. And I know that from personal experience a few years ago, I got a new prescription. I thought I'll try Warby Parker. I went in there three times, three different times. Didn't seem to be working. Kind of, oh, we'll try this and try that. And I returned each time. It turned out the prescription wasn't good. I kept, I actually was so frustrated. I kept the glasses that I had.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. Small baseball team, small market baseball teams, starting with the Oakland Athletics that couldn't compete toe-to-toe on money with the big market teams like the Yankees. So the idea was, hey, we're going to have to be smarter somehow. We're going to use data analytics to help inform the way that we bid for talent. I think this is in some ways a money ball moment in the consumer. Things have changed forever under the way. Now, of course, the Yankees now can use data analytics. Sure. So that can always happen. And the bigger companies can start using that, and they are. That's another reason why it would be harder. I do think the game has changed. I think there is something permanent that has happened here.

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  23. In the past, it was very hard to challenge that. Now, somebody will come in and say, look, I'm going to give a better price, a better value, even if it's a better customer experience. So I think that we're kind of in a... There's been a change. Money ball. Book by Michael Lewis. Okay, what was Money Ball all about? It was use of technology, that is data, data analytics, by

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  24. Fascinating story. Right, right. And it's harder. I mean, Jason, you make a good point, and I think kind of in even the two years that I've been really kind of into this, it's getting a little bit harder. I do think that you'll continue to have a lot of startups. And they might be looking for niche categories. I think there's going to be a lot more fragmentation than in the future. It's not going to have any company that's going to have a 70% market share and raises, again, like Gillette. I don't think it's just going to happen unless they try to buy somebody. I just don't think that's possible. I think that that, and this is good for consumers, there is more choice. Than ever. Because if somebody starts abusing their market dominance to the extent that somebody could get some dominance,

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  25. Casper also just recently was sort of undercovered in the business world, but they hired a president who she has background that she was running Quidzy inside of Amazon. I mean, this is an experienced operator who will see how much of a difference she does or doesn't make. I completely agree. It'll be a fact. Whatever happens will be a fascinating story. Right, right.

    2020-02-12 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Larry Ingrassia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. Of business people, and you get disciplined where maybe you weren't disciplined. We have to be doing this better differently. We can't continue like this going forward.

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  27. Tes Okay, a year ago, Tesla's execution problems were great. There were a lot of people saying, is this company going to survive? Right. And today, they seem to have, you know, kind of asterisk. They seem to have, I'm not covering that company. They seem to have gotten their production line issues, you know, kind of much more under control. And they're making money. We're loosen gobs of money just a year ago. And the stock is an all time high. So sometimes problems focus the mind.

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  28. From stock options. Right. They could be less lucrative. Or if you got in late, maybe not at all. Let's not count Casper out. It's got a very strong brand name. And even if it doesn't go out at the price that it may have wanted to, can I say one word about that?

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  29. Five years ago, it doesn't mean that it might be kind of fairly valuable companies. It could be that for investors who got in toward the end, they're not such good companies.

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  30. I don't know if this will publish before or after possible IPO, but we'll see. Oh shit of, yeah, the public markets are probably not going to value these companies like they were valued four or five years ago.

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  31. And we see these VC cycles over the years where every few years profitability becomes the in metric. Now what the actual metric is, how people define that adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA gross profit contribution margin, like that's all over the place, but one outcome that I, you know, we were starting to see, I think, in the last year or two, but the Casper IPO maybe sort of could be an inflection point, is the oh from entrepreneurs NVCs that the public market, I mean, we'll see what happens with Casper.

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  32. If you want that. Important thing there, we get a direct relationship with our customer because a lot of these companies don't want to go to retail or simply retail because they don't want to lose that connection with the customer, which is really important to them to understand kind of their customer's behavior as opposed to try to decipher their customers' behavior based on what they do in a physical retail store.

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  33. You want to go where your customers are. And once you have reached either a saturation point or you're getting to the point where it's less cost effective to get those customers online, you're going to look at other options. Kind of quit, for example, is now in Target. For the first two or three years, it was online only. Interestingly, they said, okay, we'll sell to you, but we don't want to sell our replacement brush heads to you. People have to subscribe.

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  34. Where you can actually get good deals to get into. So that was one of what was going on. And the second thing is in many product categories still, 80 to 90 percent of purchases are made in retail stores. Now that kind of 10 years ago, that was probably 95%. 10 years from now, it might be 60%. It's a lot. If you are making a consumer product,

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  35. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant. Others are dabbling. So I had to say, why is that happening? And what does it mean? I kind of came across a couple of interesting things people who actually done quite a bit of research on this, including there was a marketing professor at Penn, who was an advisor to the Warby Parker guys and who's done a lot of looking at this. And he said, for some of these companies, and stuff the needle is true, when you open a retail store in an area, your digital sales increase your online sales increase too. It creates awareness, credibility, and all. You can't go crazy, you can't overspend. It helps the fact that there are a lot of empty store.

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  36. Was an early exception opening retail stores to multichannel for a lot of brands to varying extents, you know, kind of glossier does a lot of pop-up has two very popular and I'm sure pay for themselves stores, one in West Hollywood in LA and the other one in kind of Manhattan destination.

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  37. Just been disastrous. So much narrow I think it'll be tougher. I'll be curious to see how bloody is. I think it'll be bloody for those who have overraised and not been disciplined. And for others, it might not be quite so bad. But retail is actually an interesting point. And I do have surprises when I got into it. Remember, I started thinking about doing this book initially in 2016. I was still working full-time, editing editor at the Los Angeles Time. I didn't really start working on it full-time until 2018. between that period of time another surprise was hey we went from direct to consumer predominantly

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  38. We weren't very good, and there are examples where that has just been disastrous. And so, you know, I just wonder, you know, this isn't even a question, but I wonder with Facebook and, you know, the arbitrage that was available in digital marketing being gone narrowed. Yep. And so we're seeing companies hitting ceilings and opening, sometimes opening brick and mortar is a smart idea. Other times it's a sign that you've reached, hit a ceiling. And so, you know, there are a lot of people in the industry who just believe the next few years will be very bloody for this category.

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  39. Right. And I think what we've seen has been an especially risky formula, has been entrepreneurs with no experience in the market coupled with. And Casper is actually not an example of that because Philip Krim has comes from that industry. Cases where we have entrepreneur, no market experience, but innovative ideas on how to disrupt.

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  40. Not all these products are the same. You have to look at the size of the market. You have to look at the ease of entry of the new players. And you have to calibrate kind of how much you're going to invest. And oh, by the way, the founders ought to calibrate how much they raised.

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  41. It's profitable Okay, it's not losing what was the Casper number $60, $80 million a year kind of an annualized basis. Tough to needle. Because it was bootstrapped, it was profitable from very early on. So very good question about. And final question, my point about mattress business. That has been disrupted. It's a $16 billion a year business retail in the U.S. Five years ago, probably $50 million or less was bought online, better in the box. That figure last year, people in the industry told me it was going to be $2 billion and it keeps going up. So that industry has been disrupted. And I think the lesson is for venture capitalists is not all these markets are the same.

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  42. Raised a lot of money and started spending a lot of money. And I think they got a little bit undisciplined. And they're thinking was, you know, hey, this is like, you know, a tech company where it's a social network. We'll spend a lot of money. That'll crowd out everybody else. In fact, they're spending money didn't crowd out anybody because the bears and entries are so low. Their spending may have actually helped everybody else benefit from awareness category. Okay. But I don't think they're totally indicative of everybody in that industry. Purple is a public company. Purple innovation is the name of the company. It's about as big, maybe slightly smaller than Casper. I forget the exact numbers. It's around the same.

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  43. You get a foam mattress and you get some people to sew kind of a top onto it. I've been to the factories. I mean, you know, kind of it is not rocket science. As a result, you got a lot of people entering that market, very fierce competition. In fact, in the chapter on that in my book is called The Mattress Wars. And I talk about the bare knuckles raucous free-for-all that went on. wanting to be the top dog.

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  44. Losing, they're spending this much. Right. So let's look at that category and why maybe the venture capitalists got something a little bit wrong there and why maybe the Casper people got a little bit wrong there. And it has to do with a couple of things, I think. First of all, as we've talked, the barriers to entry for consumer products because of the technology unlocks Fel. All sorts of new products you can introduce. Okay. In mattresses

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  45. You probably can support, yeah. Okay. We're talking in general, right? Yep. You know, the cosmetics business is a kind of huge, many billions of dollars business. You know, the smaller the market is, you know, the less venture backing it can support, or the more crowded a market is, the less venture backing it can support. So let's go to mattresses. And Casper recently came out with some pre-IPO numbers, which kind of were a little bit, oh my gosh, they're losing how much money.

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  46. So, you know, and then you have companies that are Third Love until maybe about a year ago had like 25 million, 30 million in venture funding. I think they've increased that, but not by a huge amount. That required them to be very disciplined in the way that they marketed. And then you have some big companies who have raised a lot of money. And some of them have actually done quite well. For example, Glossier, I think, has raised quite a bit of money. I'm not sure kind of around $100 million, maybe a little bit more. So I think the key thing is, first of all, what is the potential market size that you're going for? You know, kind of the bigger potential market, the more venture backing.

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  47. So they did very well. There's a watch company in Venice, California called Movement, MVMT. Clever, right? I think they were sold for $100 to $200 million to Movato. Movado. And again, kind of a bootstrapped.

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  48. Right. So there's, again, a big range. There are actually some companies that have done well without much funding. Tuft the needle was basically bootstrapped.

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  49. Right These early companies, some of which have seen success, they inspired a lot of, I think, Me Too Venture Capitalists to invest in a lot of Me Too companies. And I guess I just wonder, there are some people who think we're seeing sort of the ramifications of that now with seven or ten companies in every country. Yeah. And so. I guess I wonder what you think about the idea that these should not be funded. A lot of these should not be funded by venture capital and the ramifications of that on the industry.

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  50. And I didn't strike Mother Apple people initially as venture capital banks. So, Michael Dubin, you know, kind of and his initial incubator backers, I think, had to talk to 50 or 60 companies before they got kind of enough money to actually launch.

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