YouSaid · the spoken record

Lawrence Lepard

lines on the record: 98
first: 2022-07-13
most recent: 2022-07-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Worry if I had stock positions with big capital gains, I would sell them down hard unless they were in commodity producers or I think there's been a big shift. I mean, one thing we do know for sure has been a big secular shift from the disinflation theme to the inflation theme. We've underinvested in commodity and oil production. And oil is correcting now and probably correct some more. But I think in this new environment, we're talking about the next 10 years as being an environment that's basically”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But they changed their mind, or like what's going on? It's a great question. But again, I think, look, with respect to bonds, I think it's pretty easy. I mean, I think we know that they have to either let the whole system collapse. It's debased or default. So I think bonds are pretty easy to get out of. I think even when they pivot, there will be a serious equity bounce, but we're not going back to the conditions ex ante. I mean, we're not going back to those bubble conditions. Those bubble conditions were outrageous. I mean, people don't understand just how overvalued the stock market was. I mean, look at ARC. Look at all the names that were in there and look at what's happened to those names. I mean, look, there will be good things to buy at the bottom of this stock market, but we're not even in the zip code of cheap yet. I mean, we've still got another 50 to 60 percent to fall. So I would not.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they'll keep taking another swipe at kicking the can. And what's so sad about it all is it just it hurts people, it hurts us. It makes it very, very hard, even when you understand what's going on, as I think you do and I do and probably most of the listeners of this podcast do, it still makes it tough to figure out what the hell to do. We're just trying to stay on the right side of the trade. I'm not concerned with becoming a gazillionaire. And I'm just trying to defend what I got so that I can retire and feel like I'm secure in my old age. And I know a lot of people listen. I probably feel the same way.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, they'll create new programs. I mean, they're going to probably give Japan swap lines, right? And maybe we'll start buying Japanese bonds. I think it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down another 20%, somebody's going to float the idea of, you know, maybe the U.S. government needs to support the stock market. I mean, Switzerland does it. You know, other countries do it. It'll be the Save the USA's 401k program, or IRA program. And, you know, they're going to try everything they can to extend their broken system as long as they can. And that's, you know, they're the ultimate can kickers.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're probably right, but they've got guys in MIT working on it. They had a task group. I don't know. I just don't know. But I'm just saying that as a game theory it out, you have to ask your question of could they continue to be hawkish for a very long time? I mean, the answer is they can. The stock market's going to go to zero.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the answer on the pivot, and who knows? I mean Look, if you want to get conspiratorial about it, the boomers who have the money that are like Powell, they actually want their dollars to hold their value. And he does want to go down as Volker. And maybe he doesn't pivot. And maybe he really does drive this thing. Into some kind of a depressionary condition wherein they think it'll be easier to put in a CBDC and to use UBI. And think about I mean, you know,”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah, they need those millennial hogs. Yeah. I think they're going to forgive all that student debt before the election. Really?”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's kind of how it feels. They'll forgive, well, they'll be able to claim they're beating inflation, which they're not, but they'll be able to claim they are. Oil prices will be down a bit. Gas will come in a bit. Unemployment will, you know, be going up for sure. But, you know, things won't be desperate. The stock market will have come down a good bit more. They'll forgive the student debt. And then they'll pray that they can win the election.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, in March of 2020, the Treasury Bond market went no bid and your pivot occurred. Bang. And so that could happen in a week. Is it going to happen in a week? Probably unlikely, but it could, which is why it's so hard to, I haven't traded out of my risk asset positions in spite of the fact that I'm getting punched in the face every day for the last three months. You know, I think a more likely probability is that you can kind of see this. I mean, there's an election coming up. And, you know, he said he wants a couple of months down and kind of feels to me like this fall. You know what I mean? September, October.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm not smart enough to know. I mean, I know Luke thinks it happens within days, if not months. I mean, it could happen tomorrow. Show me a stock market collapse in the middle of July where show me a March 2020 market event and you'll have your pivot.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, if it forces people to learn how to self custody. That's a good thing, right? I mean, An ETF is a third party, and they're all inferior. I mean, GBTC is inferior. And there are risks with GBTC, and I recognize those, but it's a small piece of my Bitcoin holdings. But I like how easy it is to trade in it. And I like the fact that there is some chance that over time the discount will go away. I mean, I think the pressure. They're suing the government. And I'm not quite sure where that'll go. I've heard various legal people tell me different sides of that. But I think it's not inconceivable that they'll win the suit.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't Very possibly. Yeah, very possibly. I'm not sure. I'm not sure he necessarily sees that way. But you and I looking at it.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, right? I mean, what's that all about? You can have one where you can short it. We'll prove that, but we won't let you have a regular ETF. I mean, what more do you need to know, right?”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't know. I mean, yeah, I'm not sure that, you know, I mean, two things and your questions ask this. I mean, one is GBTC is an alternative, right? Although it sells at a discount, and I'm very well at the risk of not your keys, not your coins. I know the people there, I think they have the coins they say they have, but obviously it's a honeypot and there's always a risk there. Yeah, I mean, it's definitely an issue that they have not done it. And back to Gensler for a minute. I'm quite sure, I'm not sure. I strongly believe that Gensler has faced enormous pressure from the banking lobby and the treasury to not approve this thing. I mean, I can't imagine, hell, they approved a short Bitcoin ETF, didn't they? As I recall.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, definitely. Yeah, Doomberg had a great piece on that, which I recommend everyone to read. He just retweeted it this morning. There's no doubt. You know, they approved the futures. They didn't approve the spot ETF. I mean, the futures are just people gambling on the price and they want people gambling on the price, especially on the short side. Spot ETF takes money out of their system. What they don't want, they want to keep people locked in their system. They want to block the exits. And gold is an exit and Bitcoin is an exit. They want to block those exits very, very clearly. And ETF is an exit.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It also led to the derivative market. Yes, that definitely helps. But don't make no mistake about it. You know, if the government through the Fed, the Treasury, the CIA, whoever it might be, decided that it was in the national interest to have a lower Bitcoin price, they could figure out a way to get into the future's market and probably make that happen. I mean, I think they've done that with gold.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“About somebody else made this point in another podcast that was on recently that yes, gold, the fact that gold was lent itself to derivatives get so damn hard to divide and move and settle on.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You don't necessarily want to short something that's got a fixed supply and that can go up and has historically gone up 5x multiple times, right? It can be a dangerous trade. So my hope is that we'll be able to, Bitcoin will be able to crash the fiat system in a time frame that allows us to get Bitcoin oriented people into government, that allows us to ban these derivatives in general because derivatives allow the person with the biggest balance sheet to win and the government has the biggest balance sheet by definition. And that's part of what's broken.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so, if you're manipulating gold and you're JP Morgan and so on and so forth, I mean, they're pretty good at selling it when it looks hot and then waiting for it to cool off and buying it back. So they can actually even make money on the manipulation by capping it and buying, you know, creating negative sentiment and buying it when it's cheap. But as I say, gold doesn't do five beggars in six months. Bitcoin, I mean, the volatility, which some people criticize, it actually is a defense mechanism for Bitcoin because if JP Morgan were to nakedly go get short Bitcoin in the futures market without having the government backing them up and then Bitcoin were to do one of its traditional five bagger runs where it went from say call it 40,000 to 200,000 that would rip their face off and they would need the backstop of the government to protect them from it. So the volatility in Bitcoin actually I think will help it to be less subject to futures manipulation because in hedge funds too I mean”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And my sense is when Bitcoin went from $5,000 to $50,000 that somebody, the alarm bells went off at the government and said, we can't have this thing be a threat to fiat. And they started thinking and becoming more active in this market. And how active they are, I don't know. But as I said earlier, the numbers we just talked about, they're not big enough numbers that I think it's the tail-wagging the dog yet. But it's something to watch. Caitlin and I have talked about it because they could become bigger and it could become an issue. One thing that defends Bitcoin kind of makes it like a porcupine is that gold never goes up 5x in a six month timeframe.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The reason that people were able, the reason the governments were able to manipulate the gold market is they had unlimited balance sheets and they used Cayman Island entities and the BIS and lots of other proxies including JPMorgan to basically sell this paper into the market and suppress the price. And they had a printer and I think they do all the stuff off balance sheet and they can make up for whatever losses are necessary and they view it as in the national strategic interest to hold the price of gold down because it makes the dollar look stronger”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so with $20 billion outstanding and $20 billion trading a day and 20 times 365, so I don't know, there's $700 billion worth of Bitcoin trading a year. There's roughly just under $400 billion worth of Bitcoin out there. And the futures market is $20 billion. I don't think the futures market in Bitcoin today is manipulating the Bitcoin price that much. I mean, these are not the kind of ratios and numbers that exist in the gold market, which is heavily manipulated. Having said that, The 20 million has grown steadily over time and somebody on your thread asking questions did a nice chart that showed how it's been slowly but consistently getting larger.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The futures are cash settled, they don't have the Bitcoin, but that's just an agreement between, that's me selling you a Bitcoin that I don't have. And you agreeing. And so at the end of the day, when we close that contract out, however, the prices move, either IOU money or you owe me money. Neither of us have a coin at the time. It's just a futures contract, an agreement at some point in time when it gets closed out.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Worth of value a day. And the total outstanding glass node tells us that the total outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts are about $20 billion.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cells into it, they can drive down the price because they've pretended that they have something they don't have and they've created a paper claim and supply. And it all works until the person who bought the paper claim says, give me the real thing. That's what's been going on in the gold market for decades and enormous size and the paper contracts in gold are hundreds of times the underlying physical commodity itself. And that's how they've suppressed the price. And that's why if we use the 71 standards, the price of gold today would be $80,000 an ounce plus. But it's not because there's a lot of paper gold that's been used to suppress the price. This is beginning in Bitcoin, but it's very early days and it's much smaller. The way we measure the paper in the gold space is you look at the total derivative context outstanding, you divide it by the physical trade, and we get the 100 to 1 ratio. Today, Bitcoin, and I just checked it on coin market cap, Bitcoin's trading about $20 billion.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Versus other commodities. Yeah, it's a great question. I'll do the best they can on it. I mean, you know, in theory, if you and I are trading something back and forth, we have the physical thing and we set a price and we sell it and we deliver the thing back and forth. But let's say a third friend showed up and said, you know, you don't necessarily want the physical thing. I'll sell you a paper claim on the physical thing because you're not going to use it right away. And by the way, I've got a ton of those paper claims and I'll put them all in the market and I'll put them all on the market at a lower price or a higher price, whatever. That's a futures contract. And that futures contract can manipulate the underlying price of the thing itself. And if the futures market becomes, because every sale is created at the margin based on a price and the futures price and the spot price tend to track one another. And so if somebody comes along and introduces a bunch of paper futures or paper claims on something and introduces them to the market and”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and interest rates are going up and so on and so forth. I mean, it's. Again, it's sad. It's really, really sad the way we allow a committee of people to set the most important price in the world. It's tragic. It causes enormous human pain. I mean, think of the human pain that people went through in 2008. I mean, I was in the business at the time. My sister lost her house. A lot of people lost their jobs. A lot of people lost their houses. I mean, this boom bust cycle is, you know, it's enormously painful and it turns everybody into a gambler and a speculator rather than being just an honest citizen trying to add value and build businesses. And you can't build businesses when the price of capital is grossly mispriced because what happens is people speculate and the speculators get rich theoretically on paper until before it ends. And then they get wiped out. The people who follow them”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pattern that happens when bubbles burst. They go back to their base. And we're a long way from the base. I'll have charts in my report that will show that. There are a lot of charts out on the web. John Hussman has done a great job of documenting how overvalued stock market is. It's got a long way to fall, in my opinion. And that negative wealth effect is going to be a big deal. I mean, people, I know a lot of people who thought they were wealthy based on the stocks they own. They take their stocks down 50% and they're not going to go buy that new car and use leverage to do it. Their lives are going to change, especially with.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, that's what's happened here. I mean, all the money in cryptocurrencies, the wrong decision, all the money in NFTs, the wrong decision. There's been a ton of malinvestment. And when you have broken money, which is what we have, you have interest rates that don't represent the true cost of capital, you end up getting huge misallocations. And then everybody wakes up to the misallocation and says, oh my God, we blew it. And, you know, suddenly everything resets to a new set of prices. They're more in line with reality. And that's what we're going through right now. And we've just begun. I mean, look, the first quarter, most of the stock indices were down mid to high single digits. Now the stock indices are down 20%. And I know people who are saying, oh, you know, this is still not that big a deal. It'll recover. This is a good buy. No, it's not. This is a bubble bursting. And we've seen the...”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So now he had a larger furniture store where he could sell the furniture out of. That was in 1928. He got the wrong signals from the Fed. We went over the top. The economy collapsed. He had five or six employees. He was doing great. And of course, nobody would buy any furniture because nobody had any money. Throughout the 30s, he spent the whole 30s. He and his wife ran it solo, and he went every week. He had to go to the bank and begged them not to foreclose. And all because the Fed printed money and stoked the stock market bubble of the 20s and led business people to make the wrong decisions.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know what I mean? And by the way, it's going to get worse because people are going to look at those stocks and they're going to fear losing more. And they're going to say, I need that money to pay for these higher gasoline bills. I need it to pay for my higher interest costs on my house. I mean, this is just everybody. It's the sad thing. It's what happens when you have a roller coaster bust and boom economy based on a Fed that's mispricing the cost of money. I mean, this thing happened in the 29 period. I mean, a quick personal story. My grandfather was Nan Arbor, Michigan. He was in the home furniture sales business out of a house. And the 20s were so big and so good for him that he was selling furniture hand over fists and he selling it out of the first floor size. It wasn't big enough. So he went to the bank in 27 or 28 and he borrowed a bunch of money and he doubled the size of the house. He turned it into a store.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's already down 20%. So that would mean a 50% wipeout. I mean, Ronnie Stofferley had a great tweet on Twitter that showed that $31 trillion of global stock and bond wealth has disappeared in the last six months, $31 trillion. U.S. GDP is 20.1 trillion. Okay. So we've wiped out one and a half years worth of US GDP in asset valuations. That's going to leave a mark.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's that. And it's also just, look, the Fed doesn't have any good choices right now. And so we can criticize what they're doing, but almost anything they do would be wrong. It more has to do with the symmetry of bubbles. I mean, this bubble got so far out of whack that, you know, it's not going to, down 20%, that's a rounding era. This thing is overvalued by 3x. I mean, for the value buyer to start stepping into the stock market, it's got to be at least 30% lower than it is today.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's going to wake some people up. I mean, market down 20%. That's bad. Everyone knows we're hurting and everyone knows things are changing. The market goes down another 10 or 20 percent. And you're going to start to see people thinking, you know, this is my savings. This is my retirement. I'm scared. I got to get out. I got to cut back. I got to do whatever I got to do. And everyone who's out over their skis is going to be in trouble”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If your investment perspective is 2008 to today, the correct response at any point of a pullback has been to buy the dip. The debt buyers in the first quarter just got their ass handed to them, and they're probably some people buying the dip right now, and they're going to get their ass handed to them. I mean, I fully believe, and this is just, you know, I'm wrong all the time, so don't bet on this, but personally, my gut tells me the market's going down another 10 to 30 percent in the next three or four months.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's why the dollars are strong Look, Japan's a really interesting case, and Luke wrote about this recently. I mean, what's Japan going to do? I mean, what's the world going to do? The Japanese currency is going to fall substantially, and they're going to have massive inflation because they import all their oil. So, you know, it's no way to run a railroad. And, you know, it's making it very tough for all investors, even sound money investors. But it is what it is. I mean, the Myrmacan chart is very informative, right? I mean, before a system blows apart, it gets really volatile And I've always said, don't use leverage and know what you own and know why you own it. Because the crypto space outside of Bitcoin, it's just been annihilated and there's probably a lot more to go. I think so.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they might think of backing off. And so since they can kind of cook that number, maybe they see where that might be possible in the next few months. I don't know. I could print double digits. Who knows? The numbers that come out of the government, I never really trust anyway.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The dollar going straight up. I mean, it's Ven Hendricks had a great chart that just kind of showed how's that financial stability thingy coming when the dollar is just on a tear and going straight north. And the whole world is based on dollar-denominated debt. And things are going to break. I mean, they're going to break in a lot of places. If they continue with this policy. And so, but, you know, they have to because the politics indicate that they've got to get inflation under control and they want to try and maintain some shred of credibility to their credit. They admitted that they blew the last call. I don't know what they're going to say when they have to pivot here. I mean, I'm sure they're just going to say, well, you know, hopefully, I think what they're praying for, and they're probably pretty pleased to see the price of oil starting to come down. And I think what they're probably praying for is a month or two of good comps. I mean, you saw Powell saying in his last press conference, if he got two months of good comparative inflation prints, i.e. down from 8 points.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, there are some others that you can point to, but there are a host of factors that would seem to indicate that there are financial stresses popping up in the system in various pieces. And the strong dollar is a wrecking ball, right? I mean,”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's right. And so that's the issue. I mean, we know that the FEN mandate, the three parts, right? Part one is full employment. Part two is, you know, they've got that more or less. Part two is controlled inflation. They obviously don't have that. And part three is financial continuity or financial stability in the markets. And that's what they're going to lose, in my opinion. That's going to break. And there's a lot of evidence of it. I mean, Italian bonds blowing out and an emergency ECB meeting. I mean, that doesn't happen every day. Right. I mean, you look at the Japanese JGB market where they're using yield curve control. They're pinning it at 0.25. But overnight it trades up to 0.45. And they've had to bring, I think, one chart show they had to bring $80 billion to bear to buy more Japanese bonds. On the CDS markets, I just tweeted a chart today that showed the Credit Suisse CDS is almost as high as it was in the peak in 2008 is another indicator of it.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They drove it into the inflationary guardrail. They bounced off that. Now we're headed towards the deflationary guardrail. We'll see how long it takes until we bounce off that or if we break right through. I mean, they let this really get going. You know, we're going to have a severe economic downturn.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that's probably right. I mean, I know there was a lot of talk. You remember Cheney saying deficits don't matter. I mean, for a very long time, they've gotten away with a lot. And so they just figured, why not? I mean, we can do it. COVID looked like an existential threat, and it wasn't, but it looked like it, and they used it as an excuse to do what they wanted to do. I don't know. It's so sad. I mean, all of these policies, I mean, these guys are just the gang that couldn't shoot straight, you know. I've used the phrase of driving a clown car.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so he, you know, they're going to have to create more pain. And they will. And the question is will something break or how much pain is it going to take before they do pivot? When I look at”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. Yeah. I mean, these guys, you know, as Groman says, they think they're dealing with a Rhostat that they can change the temperature on slightly. And really, they're dealing with a nuclear reactor that's either on or it's off. When it was on, things were running hot everywhere and we had a crackup boom underway. Of course, they saw that late, reacted to it, reacted to it violently, started reacting slowly. And then, of course, nobody listened to them. And they're like, no, no, really, we're serious. And how, you know, Powell is channeling his inner volcaner and he is indicating he really is serious I think he's, you know, he can't pivot immediately. He just can't. He knows his credibility would be blown apart.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the reason I say that is you look at it, it's a bubble. It was a bubble. We know that. You look at the charts. I've got several in my report upcoming. And we've corrected about 20% off the high. And when a bubble bursts, you don't correct just 20%. You know, in S&P 500 in 2000, 2080 was down over 50%. The Nasdaq in the 2000 bubble was down over 80%. And so I think we can point to areas where we know anything that was puffed up based on free money is about to have the wind taken out of its sails. I suspect real estate's going to come down. Obviously, we see oil and copper coming down. And I think the stock market's got a long way to fall. It was priced perfection and we no longer have economic perfection”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we're starting to see it. And in a society, in a system that's built on free money, you take away the heroin and the addict is going to have a withdrawal tantrum. And we're in the beginning of that right now. What I think is most interesting is that the leading edge, the bleeding edge of it has been stocks and gold and bitcoin. But those are just the two that are most sensitive to. Going on with the money. I think what happened to gold and what happened to Bitcoin is about to happen to stocks. I think the stock market is going to have an enormous accident in the next three months.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it all depends upon what their next moves are, but let's just assume they stay on this path for a while. They're going to successfully destroy some demand, right? I mean, And we've already seen that. We've seen the price of oil drop sharply. We've seen the price of copper drop sharply. You know, we've seen a lot of financial distress. I'm sure we'll get into that later in the show. But we know the housing prices are on a big spike. We know that mortgage rates have doubled. I mean, that's certain to reverse. I mean, I know anecdotally in the areas I visit and live in and watch real estate-wise, there used to be bidding wars. And of course, that's all disappeared. So it's as though somebody turned off the lights. I'm in the process of writing my quarter to second quarter report, and I just penned the phrase. I said, it's like the Fed showed up, turned off the lights, said the party's over, go home. Yeah.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, do we have massive inflation or do we have massive deflation? Both, right? I mean, until the Fed hit the brakes, we had massive inflation as a result of their prior actions. And now, you know, everything's turned on a dime. We're about to go into the Great Depression.”
2022-07-13 · We Study Billionaires · BTC086: The Macro Hurricane w/ Lawrence Lepard (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT