YouSaid · the spoken record

Leopold Aschenbrenner

lines on the record: 332
first: 2024-06-04
most recent: 2024-06-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Changes and he's like, ah, I'm actually kind of a Prussia stan. You know, I think I'm like, I'm into this stuff. And then he lets, you know, let's Frederick the Great Luis. And let's their army be okay. Anyway, sort of like, yeah, kind of bizarre, interesting figure in German history.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some sense Gay lover of arts, right? Where he hates speaking German, he only wants to speak French. He plays the flute, he composes, he has all the sort of great artists of his day over at Sansu. And he actually had this sort of like really tough upbringing where his father was the sort of really stern sort of Prussian military man. And he had had Frederick the Great as sort of a 17-year-old or whatever. He basically had a male lover. And what his father did was imprison his son and then I think hang his male lover in front of him. And again, his father was this kind of very strong Prussian guy. He used this kind of gay lover of arts. But then later on, Frederick the Great turns out to be this one of the most kind of like, you know, successful kind of Prussian conquerors, right? Like you get Silesia, he wins the Seven Years' War. Also, amazing military strategists, amazing military strategy at the time consisted of like he was able to like flank the army and that was crazy and that was brilliant and then and then they like almost lose the seven years war at the very end you know the sort of you know the Russian Tsar”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think the actual funny thing is a lot of this sort of German history stuff we've talked about is sort of like not actually stuff I learned in Germany. It's sort of like stuff that I learned after. And there's actually funny thing where I kind of would go back to Germany over Christmas or whatever. Somebody understand the street names. It's like guys now and Scharnhorst and there are all these like Prussian military reformers and you're like finally understood Sansu and you're like it was for Frederick the Great is this really interesting figure where he's this sort of”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thing that I think will really matter is that there are sort of good people who take this stuff as seriously as it deserves and who are willing to kind of take the implications seriously, who are willing to have situational awareness, are willing to change their minds, are willing to sort of stare the picture in the face. I'm counting on those good people.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I feel like the most important thing here is that, you know, and this relates to some of the stuff we've talked about and the world being surprisingly small and so on. Feel like I used to have this worldview of like, look, there's important things happening in the world, but there's like people who are taking care of it, and there's like the people in government. And there's, again, even AI labs have idealized. And people are on it. Surely they must be on it, right? And I think just some of this personal experience, even seeing how kind of COVID went, you know, People aren't necessarily, there's not somebody else who's just kind of on it and making sure this goes well however it goes.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I actually think there's kind of a risk in kind of like having written this stuff down and put it online. And I think this sometimes happens to people of the worldview because now they've publicly articulated this position. And maybe there's some evidence against it, but they're clinging to it. And so I actually, you know, I want to give the big disclaimer on like, you know, I think it's really valuable to paint a sort of very concrete and visceral picture. I think this is currently my best guess on how this decade will go. I think if it goes anywhere like this, it will be wild. But given the rapid pace of progress, we're going to keep getting a lot more information. I think it's important to sort of keep your head on straight about that.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Continuous process, right? Yep. No, I think this is great. Look, I think there's a sort of mental flexibility and willing to change your mind that's really important. I actually think this is sort of like how a lot of brains have been broken in the AGI debate. The doomers who actually, I think we're really prescient on AGI and thinking about the stuff a decade ago. But they haven't actually updated on the empirical realities of deep learning. The sort of like the proposals are really kind of naive and unworkable. Doesn't really make sense. There's kind of like the EACs a little bit. They like to ship posts about technology, but they're not actually thinking through. Either the sort of stagnationists who think this stuff is only going to be chatbot. So of course it isn't risky or they're just not thinking through the kind of like actually immense national security implications and how that's going to go.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The car is in my kerosene lamps exactly. So it's just used for lighting. So then they thought oil would just no longer be relevant. Yeah, yeah. So the”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe right now they're behind, but they just have this sort of like raw latent industrial capacity to outbuild us. And that matters both in the run-up to AGI and after, right? Where it's like you have the superintelligence on your cluster. Now it's time to kind of like expand the explosive growth. And will we let the robo factories run wild? Like maybe not, but like maybe China will. Or like, you know, will we, well, yeah, will we produce how many of the drones will we produce? And I think, yeah, so there's some sort of like outbuilding in the industrial explosion that I worry about.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“By the way, I think this concept of long war and short war is kind of interesting with respect to thinking about the China competition, which is like, you know, I worry a lot about kind of, you know, Decline of sort of American, like latent American industrial capacity. I think China builds like 200 times more ships than we do right now in some crazy way. And so it's like maybe we have the superiority, say in the non-AI worlds, we have the superiority in military material to kind of like win a short war, at least, you know, kind of defend Taiwan in some sense. But if it actually goes on, you know, it's like maybe China is much better able to mobilize, mobileize industrial resources in a way that we just don't have the same ability anymore. I think this is also relevant to the AI thing in the sense of if it comes down to sort of a game about building, right, including maybe AGI takes the trillion dollar cluster, not the $100 billion cluster, maybe, or even maybe AGI takes the, you know, is on the $100 billion cluster, but, you know, it really matters if you can run X, you can do one more order of magnitude of compute for your superintelligence or whatever that, you know.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so they thought, well, you know, we completely crush them in World War I, you know, they'll be easy, we'll invade them, we'll get the resources, and then we can fight on the Western Front. And even during the sort of whole invasion of the Soviet Union, even though kind of like a large amount of the sort of, you know, the sort of deaths happened there, you know, like a large fraction of German industrial production was actually planes and naval, you know, and so on, those direct, you know, towards the Western Front and towards the Western allies.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, no, I mean, the sort of, I think, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think sort of my read of it is it's Blitz Creek wasn't kind of some like ingenious strategy. It was just kind of more like their hand was forced. I mean, this is sort of the very Adam Tusian story of World War II, right? But it was, you know, there's sort of this long war versus short war. I think it's actually kind of an important concept. I think Germany realized that if they were in a long war, including the United States, they would not be able to compete industrially. So their only path to victory was make it a short war, right? And that sort of worked much more spectacularly than they thought, right? And sort of take over France and take over much of Europe. And so then decision to invade the Soviet Union, it was, like, it was about the Western Front in some sense because it was like, we've got to get the resources. We don't actually have a bunch of the stuff we need, like, you know, oil and so on. Auschwitz was actually just this giant chemical plant to make kind of like synthetic oil and a bunch of these things. It's the largest industrial project in Nazi Germany.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I used to be a true EMH guy as an economist, you know. Know, I think the thing I changed my mind on is that I think there can be kind of groups of people, smart people, you know, who are, say they're in San Francisco, who do just have alpha over the rest of society and kind of seeing the future. And so like COVID, right? Like, I think there's just honestly kind of similar group of people who just saw that and called it completely correctly. And, you know, they showed at the market. They did really well. bunch of other sort of things like that. Why is AGI not priced in? You know, it's sort of, you know, why hasn't the government nationalized the labs yet, right? It's like, you know, this, you know, society hasn't priced it in yet. And sort of it hasn't completely diffused. And again, it might be wrong, right?”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Four years, you know, because it's actually automatable, right? And so, anyway, a friend joke that the sort of investment firm is perfectly hedged for me. It's like, you know, either like AGI this decade. And yeah, your human capital is appreciated, but you've turned that into financial capital. Or, you know, like no AGI this decade, in which case maybe the firm doesn't do that well, but you're still in your 20s and you're 60s.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think the analog is like you sell your land and you put it all in sort of the, you know, the people who are building the new industry. I think the sort of real depreciating asset for me is human capital. Right, you know, yeah, no, look, I'm serious, right? It's like, you know, there's something about, I don't know, it was like valedictorian of Columbia, you know, the thing that made you special is you're smart. Right. But actually, like, you know, that might not matter in like.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Deep into it. The Bond Schwartz, the sort of 50 and 50 second hour growth. That's pretty deep into it. I mean, again, there's this whole sequence of things. But yeah, no, I think property rights will be restructured. Again, in the sort of modal world, the project, yeah. At some point, at some point, there's going to be figuring out the property rights for the galaxies. And that'll be interesting.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, not known. Yeah. And so you've look, you've got to be really, really careful about your overall dispositioning, right? And because, you know, if you expect these kind of crazy events to play out, there's going to be crazy things you didn't foresee. You do also want to make the sort of kind of bets that are tailored to your scenarios in the sense of like, you know, you want to find bets that are bets on the tails, right? You know, I don't think anyone is expecting interest rates to go above 10%, like real interest rates. But I think there's at least a serious chance of that before the decade is out. And so, you know, maybe there's some like cheap insurance you can buy on that pays off. Very silly.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some of our friends have a paper on this, you know, if basically, if you expect, if consumers expect real growth rates to be higher, interest rates are going to be higher because they're less willing to give up consumption in the less willing to give up consumption day for consumption in the future. Anyway, so at some point, real interest rates will go up if sort of ADA is greater than one. That actually means equities, higher growth rate expectations mean equities go down because the sort of interest rate effect outweighs the growth rate effect. And so, you know, at some point there's like the big bond short. You got to get that right. You got to get it right, that nationalization. So there's this whole sequence of things. You got to get that right.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Demand for money side because people are going to be making these crazy investments initially in clusters and then in the robo factories or whatever, right? And so they're going to be borrowing like crazy. They want all this capital, higher OI. And then on the sort of like consumer saving side, right, to like, you know, to give up all this capital, this sort of like Euler equation, standard sort of inter-temporal trade-off of consumption.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Get excited about AI, and they're like, Oh, it'll, you know, power production in the United States will grow not 2.5%, but 5% over the next five years. I'm like, no, it'll grow more. At some point, a Google or something becomes interesting. People are excited about them with AI because it's like, oh, AI revenue will be 10 billion or tens of billions. I'm kind of like, ah, I don't really care about them before then. I care about it. Once you get the AI beta, right? And so at some point, Google will get $100 billion of revenue from AI. Probably their stock will explode. They're going to become $5 trillion, $10 trillion company. Anyway, so the timing there is very important. You have to get the timing right. You have to get the sequence right. At some point, actually, I think there's going to be a real tailwind to equities from real interest rates, right? So basically in these sort of explosive growth worlds, you would expect real interest rates to go up a lot, both on the sort of basic both sides of the equation, right? On the supply side or on the”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very few people did it. This is sort of also a classic debate I and a friend had with another colleague of ours where this colleague was really into TSM and TSMC and he was just kind of like, well, these fabs are going to be so valuable. And also in video, there's just a lot of video syncretic risk, right? It's like maybe somebody else makes better GPUs. And that was basically right, but sort of only NVIDIA had the AI beta, right? Because only NVIDIA was kind of like large fraction AI. The next few doublings would just meaningfully explode their revenue. Whereas TSMC was a couple percent AI. So even though there's going to be a few doublings of AI, not going to make that big of an impact. All right. So it's sort of like the only place to find the AI beta basically was NVIDIA for a while. Now it's broadening, right? So now TSM is like, you know, 20% AI by like 27 or something is what they're saying. One more doubling. It'll be kind of like a large fraction of what they're doing. And there's a whole stack. There's people making memory and co-wasps and power. Utilities companies are starting to.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Firm is not going to do that well. The thing you have to be resistant to is like you have to be able to resist and get one or a couple or a few kind of individual calls. It's like AI stagnates for a year because of the data wall or like, you know, you got the call wrong on when revenue would go up. And so anyway, that's pretty critical. You have to get timing right. I do think in general that the sort of sequence of bets on the way to AGI is actually pretty critical. And I think a thing people underrate. All right, I mean, yeah. So, like, where does the story start, right? So, like, obviously, the sort of only bet over the last year was NVIDIA. And it's obvious now.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The wrong time during the dot com boom Though they write about the Yeah, I mean, look, obviously, you can't blowing up is sort of like, you know, task number one and two or whatever. I mean, I think this investment firm, it is going to just be betting on AGI. Betting on AGI and superintelligence before the decade is out, taking that seriously, making the bets you would make, if you took that seriously. So, you know, I think if that's wrong, you know.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there's some people who are very smart about this AI stuff and who are kind of like see it coming, but I think almost all of them are kind of constrained in various ways. They're in the labs, you know, they're in some other position where they can't really talk about this stuff. And in some sense, I've really admired sort of the thing you've done, which is I think it's really important that there's sort of voices of reason on this stuff publicly or people who are in positions to kind of advise important actors and so on. And so I think there's, you know, basically the thing this investment firm will be will be kind of like a brain trust on AI. It's going to be all about situational awareness. We're going to have the best situational awareness in the business. We're going to have way more situational business than any of the people who manage money in New York. We're definitely going to, you know, we're going to do great on investing. But it's the same sort of situational awareness that I think is going to be important for.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Basically, yeah, I think it's going to be a really important period. I think capital really matters. Eventually, going to go to the stars, going to go to the galaxies. So anyway, so part of the answer is just like, look, I think done right. There's a lot of money to be made. I think if AGI were priced in tomorrow, you could maybe make 100 acts. Probably you can make even way more than that because of the sequencing. And capital matters. I think the other reason is just Some amount of freedom and independence. And I think, you know.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“By the investment firm a good question, fair question okay, so I mean, a couple things one is just, you know, I think we talked about this earlier, but it's like the screen doesn't go blank, you know, when sort of AGI superintendence happens. I think people really underrate the sort of basically the sort of decade after, right? You have the intelligence explosion. That's maybe the most sort of wild period. But I think the decade after is also going to be wild. And this combination of human institutions, but super intelligence, crazy kind of geopolitical things going on, you have the sort of broadening of this explosive growth.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Since at least last year, you know, I feel like I can see it. I feel it. And I think I can sort of see the cluster that AGI is going to be trained on. And I can see the kind of rough combination of algorithms and the people that be involved and how this is going to play out And, you know, I think, look, we'll see how it plays out. There's many ways this could be wrong. There's many ways it could go, but I think this could get very real.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Before the dinner or something. And hassled him I mean, look, I just feel this stuff pretty viscerally now. I think there's a time, you know, there's a time when I thought about this a lot, but it was kind of like econ models and like, you know, kind of like these sort of theoretical abstractions and, you know, you talk about human brain size or whatever. And I think, you know, since.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe it's me being naive and you know, not having knowing how big companies work, and you know, but like there's that, you know, I think sometimes a bit of a speech deontologist, you know, I kind of believe in saying what you think. Sometimes friends tell me I should be more of a speech consequentialist. No, I think.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there's a. Feeling some sort of duty to the thing greater than yourself. Maybe my version of this is somewhat different. I think I feel some sort of duty to feel like there's some sort of historical weight. On how this might play out. And I feel some sort of duty to make that go well. I feel some sort of duty to our country, to the national security of the United States. I think that can be a force for a lot of good.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think there's something really valuable in kind of believing in something greater than yourself. And believing and having a certain amount of faith.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't believe it, right? If I believed it, I obviously would convert to Mormonism, right? Because you gotta, you got to convert, but you can.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if it's good, but it's like at least, you know, at least come on. At least some people will retain height. But it's no, no, you know, even the Mormons. And sort of basically once these religious subgroups have high fertility rates, once they kind of grow big enough, they become, they're too close in contact with sort of normal society and become normalized, Mormon fertility rates drop from. Remember the exact numbers, maybe like four to two in the course of 10, 20 years. Anyway, so it's like now people point to the Amish or whatever, but I'm just like, it's probably just not scalable. And if you grow big enough, then there's just like, you know, the sort of like overwhelming force of modernity kind of gets you. No, if I could convert to Mormonism, look, I think there's something.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, growing up as an outsider gives you kind of unusual strength later on to be kind of like willing to say what you think. And anyway, so that is one thing I really appreciate about the Mormons, at least the ones that grew up outside of Utah. The other thing, you know, the fertility rates, they're good, they're important. They're going down as well, right? This is the thing that really clinched the kind of fertility decline story.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think he even interviewed Mitt Romney in it and so on. And I think the thing I thought was really interesting in this article was he kind of talked about how the experience of kind of growing up different, you know, growing up very unusual, especially if you grow up Mormon outside of Utah, you're like the only person who doesn't drink caffeine. You don't drink alcohol. You're kind of weird. How that kind of got people prepared for being willing to be kind of outside of the norm later on. And like, you know, Matt Romney was willing to kind of take stands alone, you know, in his party because he believed, you know, what he believed is true. I don't know. I mean, probably not to the same way, but I feel a little bit like this from kind of having grown up in Germany, having, you know, and really not having like this German system and having been kind of an outsider or something. I think there's a certain amount in which kind of.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, okay, okay, before I answer that question, one sort of observation about the Mormons. So actually there's an article that actually made a big impact on me. I think it was by McKay Hoppins at some point in the Atlantic or whatever about the Mormons. And I think the thing he kind of...”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. I mean, look, if the AGI stuff goes down, it'll be the most important kind of source of, it'll be how maybe most of the people who kind of end up feeling AGI for sure about it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it only existed because, yeah, it's actually, because I think it's hard, it's probably, what is the impact of immigration reform? What is the impact of clearing whatever 50,000 green cards in the backlog? And you're such an amazing example of like, you know. All of this is only possible, and it's, yeah, it's, I mean, it's just incredibly tragic that this is so dysfunctional”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So crazy, extremely contingent reasons. I ended up getting a green car The whole podcast, right? Exactly. And I was like bumming.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, where can you not get in? And even getting the H1B for you would have been like 20% lottery. If you're lucky, you're in the”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On his H1B as a dependent. But when you're 21, you get kicked off. Yeah. This is my situation, yeah, and he's completely screwed.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The way, you know, on the topic of Germany, we were talking at some point about kind of immigration stories. I feel like you have a kind of interesting story you haven't told. And I think you should tell.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's a tough trade off, but I think the sort of need to wake up people in the United States and the sort of Western world and the Democratic Coalition is ultimately imperative. And I think my hope is more people here will read it than in the PRC. And I think people sometimes underrate the importance of just kind of like writing it up, laying out the strategic picture. And, you know, I think you've done actually a great service to sort of mankind in some sense by, you know, with your podcast. I think it's overall been good.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I actually look, I think this is a tough trade off. I thought about this a bunch. I think people in the PRC will read this. There's some extent to which sort of cat is out the bag. This is like not AGI being a thing people are thinking about very seriously is not new anymore. There's sort of, you know, a lot of these takes are kind of old. I had similar views a year ago. Might not have written it up a year ago, in part because I think this cat wasn't out of the bag enough. I think the other thing is. Think to be able to manage this challenge, you know, I think much broader swaths of society will need to wake up, right? And if we're going to get the project, we actually need sort of like a broad bipartisan understanding of the challenges facing us. And so”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sabotage or their family, or yeah, it's really bad. This is to the point on security, you know, like right now it's just really foreign. At some point, as it becomes like really serious, you're going to want the security cards.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There might not actually be that much space for kind of like complicated kind of like clever proposals. It might just be kind of much cruder reactions. Yeah.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You It completely flipped multiple times, right? Initially, kind of the right was like, you know, it's like so contingent. And then the left was like, this is racist. And then it flipped. The left was really into the whole thing also is just like so blunt and crude. And so I think probably in general, you know, I think people are really under, you know, people like to make sort of complicated technocratic AI policy proposals. And I think especially if things go kind of fairly rapidly on the back to GI.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Secur Yeah, so I think the China one is an important one. I think another one would be a sort of very Tyler Countess take, which is like you're not exposed to how will a normal person in America, both use AI, probably not, and that being kind of like bottlenecks to the fusion of these things. I'm overrating the revenue because I'm kind of like, ah, you know, everyone at staff is adopting it, but, you know, kind of like, you know, Joe Schmoe engineer at a company, you know, like, ah, will they, will they be able to integrate it? And also the reaction to it, right? You know, I mean, I think this is a question, again, hours ago where it was about like, you know, won't people kind of rebel against this? Yeah.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, yeah, I'm really uncertain on how sort of seriously China is taking AGI right now. One anecdote that was related to me on the topic of anecdotes, by another sort of like researcher in the field was at some point they were at a conference with somebody, Chinese AI researcher. And he was talking to him and he was like, ah, I think it's really good that you're here. And like, you know, we got to have the international coordination and stuff. And apparently this guy said that I'm the kind of most senior most person that they're going to let leave the country to come to things like this.”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's like these are secrets that can be used for like probably every training around in the future that'll be like maybe are the key to the data wall that are like they can't go on or they can't go on that are like you know they're going to be worth you know given sort of like the multipliers on compute you know hundreds of billions trillions of dollars you know and all it takes is you know China to offer 100 million dollars to somebody right can work for us right and then and then”
2024-06-04 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source