YouSaid · the spoken record

Lindsay Drucker Mann

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28
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2019-07-03
most recent
2019-07-03
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1
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  1. International expansion than boxes, i.e. a box that just provides other people's brands. And so I'd say it's across that customer distribution channel and geography that retailers are focused on today.

    2019-07-03 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Where Are Retailers Looking For Growth? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Very specific to a specific retailer or brand, but for them, it's going to be where's the customer demographic growing and it's not just millennial in Gen Z. There's a lot of companies focused on senior citizens and a booming baby boomer demographic as well. So customer growth would be one. The second would be in channel growth. And we've talked today a lot about the digitally native brands in DTC and so how can you transition from a more wholesale led model to controlling your own destiny on the direct-to-consumer so that distribution angle would be the second. And the third would be geographically and where especially in China, in the emerging markets where there's mid and high single digit GDP growth and a growing consumer disposable income that has dollars to spend, how do you most effectively target those markets? And what's interesting is brands tend to be much more successful in

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  3. It's really hard to come up with a product that I would never buy online because I would buy an appliance, I would buy jewelry, all of that online today, which traditionally bigger ticket, you wouldn't think you would. Probably the one thing I still would not is a car because I would still want to test drive that car, but I would do a ton of diligence and research in advance of walking into that showroom such that I could still be negotiating from a price perspective with full information availability and not asymmetry. So that's probably where I would not buy online. And where I probably would never buy in a store again is any sort of commodity product that I don't need to look or touch. So whether it's laundry detergent or toilet paper or the moisturizer that I know that I use religiously, if I don't need to see or touch it, I will never need to buy it in a store again.

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  4. You're running retail banking, but you're also a consumer. We're all consumers. So two part question. What item would you never buy online? And what item could you now never imagine buying in a store?

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  5. There have been three different CEOs during my time here, and the financial crisis and changing industry groups, there's been enormous shifts on one hand. But the one thing that hasn't changed kind of across groups, across divisions, across offices even is our culture. And it's amazing to me to see how that culture and the principles of teamwork and integrity and client service really get passed down and how we've been able to preserve that over time has been probably the biggest surprise.

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  6. Yeah, it was wonderful. It was really, really wonderful taking advantage of all of those moments, I think, is really important. And for me, really prioritizing my family and my mental health and well-being is really first and foremost. And if I'm not doing that, then I can't be successful in other areas of my professional life.

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  7. I have been here for sixteen years, which is staggering to me, the last ten of which have been in consumer retail. I actually started in our industrials group. It's been a really wild and fun ride overall. And I think in terms of thinking about prioritizing my never-ending to-do list, as I'm sure we all feel, it's just a massive amount of organization and ruthless productivity in terms of thinking through where can I be thoughtful about downtime in all pockets of my life. So if I'm stuck in a cab, I'm stuck in an airport. Last night I was on a five-hour flight where the Wi-Fi was broken, just making sure that I'm

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  8. Jen, you've been at Goldman since 2003, your partner now. Talk a little bit about your own journey at the firm and how you prioritize your to-do list in a very busy life, both in and out of the office.

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  9. I think a retail company today and it's very, very broadly defined is anything that serves a customer with their disposable income. And so it could be your laundry detergent, it could be your apparel service, it could be your car. And so it's very broad today. I think there's a blurring of the lines between companies who consider themselves retail companies and companies who consider themselves technology companies. And there's a lot of overlap between the two. And so we've seen the enormous success of companies like Stitchfix, which went public and has done phenomenally well that uses very sophisticated data algorithms in terms of deciding what box to send you of apparel based on your preferences, what you specified at the outset, how you've reacted to prior boxes that they've sent you. And so they're providing apparel, which is a traditional retail service, but using technology and data.

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  10. We've all seen the headlines of the retail bankruptcies that have happened over the past several years, whether it's Toys R Us, Jimboree, mattress firm, Payless, Claire's, for a lot of private equity players who put a lot of money to work in this sector. It's been a very difficult investment strategy overall. Where we've seen it evolving, I'd say, is, one, in thinking through are there investments in Amazon proof or less Amazon risk sectors, so such as high growth restaurant brands where they're still opening new concepts in stores since it's hard to order a restaurant delivered meal on Amazon today. A second area is making minority investments in smaller investments in smaller growth companies where historically we wouldn't have seen private

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  11. Gap announcing that they were going to spin off Old Navy. And so their legacy historical gap, Banana Republic, Athleta brands would be separate from Old Navy, which is more of a value proposition customer serving the full family overall. And so management teams are thinking holistically about where they can add the most value and how from a shareholder perspective they can deliver the most upside for their investors.

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  12. There's been a bunch of recent examples where you're seeing companies who are focused on pruning their portfolio and focusing on their core capabilities and areas of growth. So a good example that was announced last fall and recently was consummated was VF Corp, who announced that they were going to spin off their traditional denim brands, Lee and Wrangler, into a separate company called Contour Brands. And instead, they would hold on to the remaining higher growth brands that are focused on the active outdoor and workspaces. So those include brands like vans, Timberland, the North Face, and so forth. And for a company like BVF, they saw Denham, and that denim category and the brands that they owned as slower growth, lower margin. And so for them, from a shareholder perspective, to separate the higher growth, higher margin from the lower growth lower margin was very helpful and additive to shareholder value. The second example of that is

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  13. The grocers are the ones who historically had the most data because they had the promotion cards. And so whether it's the Kroger's, the Costco's, the publics of the world, you often would swipe your card at checkout and they know in your coming so often and so forth they have so much data so they print out the receipt and you're already getting coupon for Hagen Daz because you just bought a pint of Ben and Jerry's. I think the grocers have been far and away ahead of the curve in terms of that. There's a few others in the broader retail sphere. So I mentioned Ulta earlier. Ulta is another great example that almost 90% of their transactions are done on a loyalty program today. And so the amount of data that they have that if you've bought a philosophy face wash, maybe we should also target you with an email promotion about a philosophy moisturizer and you'd like the same brand is very powerful.

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  14. Certainly true. I mean, I don't know why Amazon thinks we've already consumed an entire pound of almonds from last week, but with four kids, maybe, who knows? What types of retailers have been most successful at sort of using this technology to date?

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  15. And so Kroger is trying to confront the Amazon threat in the grocery space in terms of having a very automated fulfillment in terms of online grocery. So it's been less on the pure M&A side and more on the investment and or partnership experience overall. More broadly, aside from just logistics, where retailers are focused today is leveraging the kind of troves of customer data and loyalty programs that they have. If you think about going to Costco and using your membership card to buy your products and purchases, they have an enormous amount of data on what you buy every month and what you're focused on. And so using that customer data and analytics to hyper personalize the experience, both in terms of marketing and what they're pushing out to you from a promotion standpoint is another area that retailers are very focused on. And I think it's interesting in consumer survey work.

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  16. Today, over 90% of e-commerce orders are bought with free delivery. And so that's leveled up from a customer perspective that customers just expect free delivery overall. So I think the first area logistically that we just talked about is traditional players investing in this buy online pickup in store capability and making sure that they can fulfill that. The second is in terms of back-end speed and where they can invest to fulfill that much quicker. And obviously Amazon has upped the anti in terms of what we all expect in terms of days. A good example of this is Kroger, the grocer, made an investment last year in a UK company called Okado that focuses on automated warehouse. They bought 5% of ocado and in turn entered an agreement where they would build 20 automated grocery fulfillment warehouses across the United States over the next three years.

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  17. Touched a little bit upon investing in logistics and technology, what types of retailers are more inclined to make that investment, build the in-house technology to handle logistic platforms, last mile delivery? And where are you seeing the most M&A activity in this space?

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  18. Retailers recognize that that is a large and growing demographic that will continue to populate as we all age and build up that funnel and that demographic has dollars to spend and time to spend it. And so I think not only in thinking through online investment, we're seeing retailers making investments into services. So one example of that is Best Buy, the Consumer Electronics retailer buying a company called Great Call last year, which basically provides in-home emergency services to senior citizens. And that's a focus for Best Buy to try to get more of their services in their home. And so more connectivity with their customer overall. And so I think it's been an area of acute focus for a lot of retailers today.

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  19. Jen, a lot of the focus in retails on millennials and what millennials buy and how they buy it, but obviously a huge demographic and relatively well-off one are the retirees and baby boomers. How are retailers thinking about that demographic and their changing tastes and habits?

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  20. Delivery from 1600 stores by year end. And so really thinking about this last mile delivery to customers today is one area that the traditional bricks and mortar players have been thinking about using their footprint. The two other areas I would say the traditional players have been focused on is one, smaller stores. And so you're seeing big box retailers thinking about more urban centers with smaller footprints with a more localized assortment. We see that here next to Goldman's headquarters with Target store here in Tribeca and they talk about opening a few dozen of those each year going forward in more urban metro areas. And the second area is providing services to drive traffic and so whether it's dining services, tailoring services, grooming services with manicures, pedicures, anything to drive traffic is another area that the traditional players are focused on in terms of leveraging their footprint. For the digitally

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  21. On the typical traditional retailers where they've been really investing is in their kind of last mile delivery and the buy online pickup in store or bopus as we call the acronym in terms of those capabilities. And they do that both in terms of lowering distribution costs and two getting add-on sales. And so a good example of that going back to Lowe's is they fulfill 70% of their online orders via their stores. And so that's a significant chunk of their online business today. And 30% of the time when a customer comes to pick up their order, they add on an additional product. And so retailers have really been investing a lot in that kind of buy online pickup in store. Another example is Walmart. Walmart's on track to offer grocery pickup in almost 3,100 stores and they will add grocery stores.

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  22. So, there's also a bit of a shift back to the middle, right? So for a while, large retailers were moving aggressively in e-commerce because they needed to. But we're also seeing some of these digitally native brands finding some value in brick and mortar stores. So how are the large established retailers and the smaller high-growth brands using physical footprint differently than they have in the past?

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  23. Recent one in goat, a digitally native sneaker marketplace, and Rockets of Awesome. And so I think in thinking through all of those four areas, that's how the retailers have thought about either partnering or acquiring with these digital startups. What these brands get, what the startups get, is kind of immediate access to scale expertise, prowess, real estate, sourcing, marketing, supply chain, a lot of bandwidth and heft that they don't necessarily have as a startup experience all on their own.

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  24. Fast food retailer investing in Grubhub in terms of delivery. So that's another area in terms of where the retailers are investing today. The third is accessing a new customer demographic that they don't typically serve. And so another example in the Walmart arena is Walmart buying bonobos or eloque, the online retailer. Another example is Nordstrom partnering with Everlane All Birds and Reformation. And so this is attracting a new millennial customer who maybe isn't a typical department store customer today. And then the fourth area is really a portfolio strategy of investing in all of the above. And I think a great example of that is footlocker. Footlocker has really built up a whole presence in terms of investing in startups. They started last year in making a minority investment in a women's athletic apparel retailer called Carbon 38. They followed that up with four other investments including their most

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  25. There's basically four areas that these retailers have been focused on in terms of partnering or acquiring with some of these disruptive startup brands. The first is acquiring capabilities. A good example of that is Ulta, the Beauty Retailer, who's invested or acquired in two AR, VR technology companies last fall to offer a better experience for their consumers in the store. A second example is Lowe's, which recently acquired a retail analytics platform owned by Boomerang, which basically offers improved pricing and has a more dynamic pricing model in their stores. The second area where these retailers are acquiring or partnering with brands is in investing in distribution to kind of leapfrog their own in-house technologies. Examples of that are Walmart buying jet.com a couple of years ago, Target buying shipped in terms of delivering last mile delivery. Yum, the

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  26. One response amongst the older retailers or more established retail brands is obviously acquiring some of these digitally native brands or partnering with them. You just hosted a conference on disruptive growth in the retail industry and all about this very topic. What value are larger, more established retailers seeing in the smaller high growth brands? And what does a partnership with a traditional category offer to the startup?

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  27. What the digitally native brands have done is around two core themes. The first is improving the customer experience, and the second is improving the overall value proposition. And I think what the digitally native brands have done is really disrupted that in terms of thinking through the customer experience in terms of very customized experiences overall, personalized marketplaces and marketing overall destination stores. And on the value proposition, really thinking through, is there a private label products? Is there a way to disrupt the middleman in terms of manufacturing? And so the digitally native brands and millennials exposure to those have really upped the ante for our core retail base, that they've had to evolve their own business models in terms of needing to address those two kind of core themes.

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  28. First and foremost, I would say that clearly e-commerce has grown quite significantly. It used to be about 5% of total retail. It's expected to be almost 17% by 2021. So it's grown enormously over the past six or so years. But it's important to remember that pure store-based retailing is still almost 80% of the overall market. For our clients specifically, I would say that they have definitely shifted from a more defensive posture several years ago and after waking up to that reality and a lot of painful investment, both in terms of e-commerce capabilities, distribution, and logistics, they're now taking on a much more offensive posture and realizing that having an omnichannel model where you have both a bricks and mortar store base coupled with a strong e-commerce experience is really what you need to have.

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