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Liz Ann Sonders

lines on the record: 91
first: 2024-03-22
most recent: 2024-03-22
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Right. Forever. But, you know, sectors and groups and categories, there's rotation. I think all else equal, that's a healthy thing. I think still a bit more work needs to be done. But in terms of back to the original part of your question, you know, how do you navigate this? First of all, understand what's actually going on in the market and understand that indexes can often paint a very different picture versus if you look under the surface. And that's why in my latest report, I said that this may be more of a duck market than a bull market.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Tesla, Apple, and Alphabet. Now, NVIDIA is still the best proring stock, but you've got this massive spread in terms of performance among just that group of names. And you have these sort of stealthy breakouts happening in areas like industrials, even to some degree in financials. Which have been a giant.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, kind of breathing down Tesla's neck last year, they were the seven largest stocks consistently throughout the year. They weren't the seven best performers, but they were all strong performers, double and triple digit. You only had to go down to the 63rd ranking within the S&P 500 to capture all seven of those names. Year to date, as you and I are recording this, three of the seven stocks are ranked year-to-date performance in the bottom quintile. So four of them, three of them have a four handle in terms of the ranking.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So even just it is among the magnificent seven. Now, last year, so that moniker came because those were the seven largest stocks in the S&P and in the Nasdaq. They're not the seven largest anymore. Six of them are still the six largest, but Tesla has dropped down. It's kind of bouncing between the ninth and the 10th spot. So leapfrogging Tesla has been Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, and Broadcom has been...”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Have outperformed the SP over the prior 12 months. Now, if you start to shorten that 12 months, it gets better. So, right now, it's around 40% of the index has outperformed the index over the past month.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's lots of ways to look at that. So at the low point of last year, even today, if you look at the percentage of the S&P that has outperformed the index over the past 12 months, it's only 12%. That's close to an all-time low.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, a year like last year was so dominant by such a small handful of names. It got less extreme as the year concluded. Around the mid”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Strategic asset allocation structure that is tied to everything personally about them that they have the disciplines around diversification, periodic rebalancing, and they tend to ride through the tougher times much better than the kind of wing it type investors.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, one of the differentiations that I've observed over my many years at Schwab is during some of the really tumultuous eras, 2022 maybe not as significant as the COVID decline or certainly the global financial crisis is there is a pretty direct correlation between the ability to withstand volatility and tough market environments with whether you sort of have a disciplined strategic asset allocation plan versus more of the day traders, the wing it kind. That's where you see the bigger emotional swings versus our clients that have taken that what we sometimes call an advised approach where they've got that long-term plan they have a financial plan they've got”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because you had that sort of double washout in sentiment and you had that under the surface improvement in breadth, where even though the generals were retreating, there were more soldiers kind of approaching the front line.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There was a little more of that across the spectrum washout, the puke phase, as I like to call it using a very technical term. That was also a period where because the magnificent seven or the grade eight, you know, that a small handful of technical. Right. Now it's getting shrunk, those stocks were dragging performance down. But what was interesting about the October low was what was going on under the surface. So, the indexes at the October low had taken out their June low, but under the surface you were seeing much improved breadth, you know, positive divergence to use that technical term. And that was a more compelling point in the market. Again, the message from us wasn't the bottom is in, but the message was this looks more compelling than what was happening in June.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And at the time where you had record high bearishness, record low bullishness, the equity exposure was only slightly off an all-time high. So that was a classic example of what they, what they're saying and what they're doing are sort of diametrically opposed. Fast forward to the October 2022 period.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it wasn't matched by the behavioral measures. In fact, AAII, in addition to their weekly, are you bullish, are you bearish or are you neutral survey, they also track the equity exposure of their same memory? That's my favorite.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, one of the most interesting things about 2022 to tie this into the sentiment conversation that we just had and the differential times between behavioral measures of sentiment and attitudinal measures of sentiment. I'm sure you remember the first big whoosh down into June of 2022 that at the time was the hope for, okay, maybe this is the washout point, in part because some sentiment measures were at extremes. A-Ii, I don't remember whether it was exactly around the low of June, but sometime in that spring, early summer period, the percentage of bears in the weekly AAII survey went to a record high and commensurately the percentage of bulls went to a record low.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Behavior, what happens? Your Fear and greed are really, really powerful emotions. And especially as it relates to our money. Because we care a lot about our money.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And by the way, nobody knows. And nobody can do that. It's not what we know that matters, meaning about the future, what the market's going to do. It's what we do along the way.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, no. For people who might not have been following the actual me, it's Atlas Anne Saunders. There's no E at the end of Anne. Saunders is not spelled with a Z. There's no numbers added to it. It drives me crazy.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's probably a pretty good eye into the sort of psyche and behavior of individual investors. So it is absolutely something that I incorporate in the analysis in addition to broader metrics that go beyond just schwab, things like fund flows and obviously the Pocall ratio and other ways to measure the behavior of investors. But it's in conjunction with those more attitudinal measures. And that comes from sources like AAII, American Association of Individual Investors. But frankly, a lot of the attitudinal measures of sentiment I pick up just from talking to our clients, being on the road, that's where the spidey sense, the gut feel comes in and now being very active on social media too, particularly Twitter slash X. By the way, I am not active on either Instagram or Facebook. However, a very troubling”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We do, and there are a variety of forms that we disseminate that type of information out into the public sphere, which is not something I do formally. There are groups that put that together, but I have access to the information. And you're right, particularly as it relates to the sentiment inside of things. I have been a sentiment watcher for my 38 years in this business, learning a lot about the power of sentiment from Marty Zweig. But I think it's important to look at both attitudinal measures of sentiment and behavioral measures of sentiment and behavioral measures with 8 plus trillion dollars of client assets.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're doing it weekly. It drops on Fridays. It's audio only so we can have external guests, internal guests. People can be wherever they are and a wide range of guests that we have had. We had Claudia Som, we had Al Rabel talking about commercial real estate. We had Dolly Lenz, a real estate fame talking about residential real estate. We've had internal guests like our own Mike Townsend talking about what's going on in Washington. So that's been an absolute blast.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Love it. Absolutely love it. So we launched it. I think it was November of last year. I co host it with my colleague Kathy Jones, who is our chief fixed income strategist. So she's my counterpart on the fixed income side of things where my bias is on the equity side of things. And we have just very open honest conversations sort of you're a fly on the wall hearing what we would talk about. It's very unscripted about what's going on in the markets and we talk about the Fed and economic data and what's ahead for the week. And we typically also have guests both internally and externally.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Accelerators. Right. Absolutely. And then as you and I sit here having this conversation, a relatively new component of my day-to-day activity is I now co-host a podcast. I know that. How are you in?”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a better balance and it's efficient. I used to go over to Asia once or twice a year to see many of our clients that are based over there and the trips would involve some combination of Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, maybe Singapore. And I would do a breakfast event, a lunch event, a dinner event, the dinner events might have up to 15,200 people, smaller other events. But at the end of a trip, Was a brutal travel trip. I might have interacted in some form with several hundred clients. I now do a quarterly webcast for those same clients. And there have been webcasts on which we've had more than 5,000 clients. So there is an efficiency to continue to weave that in.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That we have analyzing data, analyzing every economic report that comes in, everything happening in the market on a day-to-day basis, even though I don't take a trading approach, just looking at technicals and breast statistics and leadership and factor analysis, et cetera, et cetera. And then I spent a lot of time both literally and figuratively on the road talking to our clients, both their retail clients as well as advisor services. Now in this post-COVID environment, it's not quite as much as used to be the case in terms of travel to do in-person events. It's maybe 60% back in that direction, but we've all adopted to the use of”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there is probably nothing typical about a day, but on the rare occasion where I have a decent block of time where I am not on camera or traveling, I do a lot of research. I remember when my daughter was in middle school and she's 24 years old nowis and she's the youngest. It was a long time ago.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You didn't see this talk. When markets are going up, the benchmark is either an index like the S&P 500 or someone you know that's making even more money than you are. But it's amazing how quickly the benchmark turns into cash or a positive return when markets are going down.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Client assets are for the most part individual investors. 1987 is a perfect example of that. If I at the beginning of the year had said the market is going to be up less than 2%, that might have sent the impression that it was going to be kind of a boring year and could have patted myself on the back at the end of the year. The path that the market took to start the year and then ended up 1.8% was nothing resembling what one might infer if he had just heard the year-end price target of essentially a flat market.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Indulge me, if you would, on a tangent here. One of the things that I have never done and no one at Schwab has ever asked me to do is what I think is the silly exercise of things like year-end price targets. Now in part, that's a way for institutional strategists to be measured against one another. And the sort of narrative embedded in that, I suppose, might matter to institutions. But our $8 plus trillion dollars.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was sort of unwinding and wasn't going to represent the insurance that a lot of people thought. And he was on the hedge fund side of the dual organization. So could swing for the fences a bit more than we could on the institutional side. And I don't remember the exact percentages, but was very aggressively long heading into what the pre-crash peak was in August and then started aggressively both selling and moving to the short side of things, heading right into the weekend before the crash. And we did something similar on the institutional side, not the same extreme, but close to fully invested to a very, very low equity exposures.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly what happened. And it had to do with the interest rate backdrop at the time and tighter monetary conditions, but also the spidey sense to your point around the innovation of the time of portfolio insurance and felt that that.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think Lou said, boy, you sound a little troubled. Do you think we have a bear market? And Marty basically said, no, I think the market's going to crash. And then he went further to talk about the nature of what it would look like, the probability that it would happen, but then there would be a retest. But then once you had the retest, there's a decent chance that you'd be off to the races again.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For those that don't remember the show, and it's with every year that goes by, I still hear all the time, oh my gosh, I miss Wall Street week, I miss Lou. What was he like? What was Marty like? And younger people just never heard of the show. They have no idea who Sr ⁇ kaiser is. And that's kind of sad for somebody that's been around for as long as I have. But the structure of the show with Lou would come out. He would do 10 minutes or so of a monologue. And it was really brilliant writing. He wrote them all himself. There was humor. And I think Lou asked him, and you can find it on YouTube. It's still around, in fact. It is still a bunch of bunch of”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The gut instinct was extraordinary. It was always, again, in the context of the models that he was very disciplined about, but there was that just added little piece, and it certainly came into play with regard to what essentially was his crash call.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Unbelievably successful, and it had to do with the discipline of the models that he used and how he segmented economic liquidity, investor liquidity, and then technicals and breadth conditions and understood how they melded together. And, you know, it wasn't the history of working for him wasn't without some periods that he didn't quite nail, but the big ones he really nailed.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I adored Marty. Rest in peace. He was quirky. He could have a temper, but never about the big stuff. It was more about the little stuff if he couldn't find his pencil. And, you know, he would toss a phone, but he was really sort of warm and fuzzy, but had that, he was always. Sort of anxious and nervous. And a lot of people who just observed him from afar took it as, well, he's just bearish all the time. It wasn't the case. I mean, he was essentially a market timer for a lack of a better word. He was a tactical asset allocator.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Monetary policy analysis and investor sentiment and behavior. And that was where I really found my passion was in that top-down analysis.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So again, I was on the avatar side of this Yvatatar broader organization, which was institutional money management, managing money for a lot of large corporate plans and foundations and endowments. And I was a portfolio manager. So I was doing bottom-up research and picking stocks, but it was with the context of the top-down analysis that Marty brought to the picture. I learned throughout that 13 years, and part of the reason why I took advantage of an opportunity that presented itself to move over to US Trust was I was much more interested in and fascinated by the top down and not the bottom up. I didn't love picking stocks. It just wasn't where my passion was. So my observations were more keen on what Marty and his models were doing in the context of the big picture.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, there was no Google, there were no computers, there was no internet. So I was in the library with the microfiche machine and literally turning the crank and reading newspaper articles. So I had some background and I had two interviews. And honestly, just the voice inside my head said this feels right.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And millions of viewers every week. It was that era's version of must see TV on the subject of the market. So I had some familiarity, but in advance of the interview, I also did more research on Marty, on his side of the organization, which was the mutual fund hedge fund investment newsletter side, and then the avatar side that I ultimately joined, which was the Institutional Money Management Firm.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I interviewed across the spectrum of industries and they were all interviews for grant positions, entry-level positions. But I had interviews at a few Wall Street firms, both large and small. I think I interviewed at a marketing firm and ad agency because I didn't know what I wanted to do. But I had some familiarity with Marty because in college, one of the courses that I took, a requirement was, in addition to reading the Wall Street Journal every day was understanding what had happened in the world of financial markets throughout the week. And I had a professor give me a little sort of hint. He said, hey, just watch Wall Street week on PBS on Friday nights. Lewis Roe Kaiser. At 8.30 to 9 o'clock, then you go out and you start your weekend. And I did. And Marty was on that show really from its inception in the early 1970s. And for those that remember the show, you also remember that that predated anything that exists now.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Then early part of childhood in Marstown, New Jersey, then outside of Philadelphia and Westchester, Pennsylvania, then of course went to Delaware, and then New York City for 12 years, and then Connecticut raised our kids in Darien, Connecticut. And now I'm based in Naples, Florida.”
2024-03-22 · Masters in Business · Liz Ann Sonders on Behavioral and Sentiment Measures in Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source