YouSaid · the spoken record

Louis Camhi

lines on the record: 160
first: 2023-06-19
most recent: 2023-06-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“There's been two big pipes, and that's really it, then what are you doing? You're just bringing dilution. And even if you forfeit some of your sponsors, you're bringing on dilution. You're not adding human capital. You're not adding financial capital. So it kind of defeats the purpose. And so the more of those you see, the harder it's going to be to convince a quality target, like merge with the spac. If you're able to show, listen, I don't think we're ever going back to 12%. If you're able to show like, listen, we're going to get 60% redemption. So $200 back, we'll raise $80 million. We can push back on some of these banker fees or pay them at least in equity tie to an earnout, make, you know, some of the banks. And some of the bankers now are willing to do this to give them some skin in the game too. And by the way, the CEO of our SPAC has 20 years of experience in this industry, and we can help you, like you're doing X, Y, and Z, and we think we can add these three things.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's really two main reasons, but two of them go together. One is being public, but it's being public and raising capital. Most of these companies don't want to be public and not raise capital. And the other is getting expertise from the manager team of the SPAC, right? If you're an energy spec and you're merging with an energy target and you as the board and manager of the energy spec of all these connections and knowledge and you can really create value, that makes perfect sense, right? When Blackstone buys an asset, it's because they have this expertise to create value. And so you kind of want to have that set up. But in a lot of these scenarios, when you're just merging, again, I'll pick on biotech. You've seen a lot of biotech deals where the spac clearly has no biotech background. So they're relying on one, the target and two, whoever is kind of making the introduction. And three, they're not bringing any capital because I've”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're still seeing really elevated Really elevated redemption rates. And don't get me wrong, June is looking better because we saw one deal, but June was, again, we're two weeks in, halfway through, is 80%. Remember, yes, we're in a pseudo bull market, but the deals that are closing now were announced six months ago, arguably during one of the most challenging times. And so I think the better companies around that could have been patient were patient. And so I'd rather, you know, I think the question you just asked, we'll have to touch on the next time we speak to say like, were there good deals that were done now? Because there's an excitement, there's more investor willingness to put up capital to take on more risk, et cetera. But, you know, we're definitely not seeing it yet. And, you know, listen, if you were doing deals with 95% redemptions and no pipe, it's probably a bad deal because if you think about, if you're making the pitch to a target, why you should merge with a...”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By the way, just to answer your question from earlier, in the first quarter of 2021, the redemption rate was 12%. We're still”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The target, it just has to do that hey, these are your comps, your comps are down 40%. And so therefore you should be down 40%”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so it kind of comes back to i call specs a bull market product and people think like oh because you're just talking about spec in general it's like no i like that if it takes six months for a deal to close that between announcement and closing in theory i've accreted value right i'm making money i'm getting closer i'm rolling forward estimates you know in december like last year the market and spec got tagged and so to your point we saw just tremendous amount of value destruct, I don't say destruction, but let's call it valuation compression without these deals getting reset. Even something, again, we've been talking about rock energy, ROC. And I tweeted about these specific numbers. I don't have them at my fingertips. If you just look at the comps that they disclose in their deal deck, they're all down. I want to say about 40%. And so seeing this trading at $6, it's not unreasonable because that's just where the market is. It has nothing to do with the performance of”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The comps, if there was a fintech company that went to market at a certain valuation at $10 of stock, the valuation for the entire company, and then Square, since the deal was announced, was down 60%, the stock, Square or PayPal or JPMorgan or something, some sort of financial stock. suddenly that's worth a lot less So really everyone knows the stock should be trading at $6, but there's a $10 floor.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, think about it. If you're me, right, and I can redeem for $10 a share, let's just use round numbers, and the stock's trading at $11, I'm never going to redeem, right? I'm just going to sell it in the open market and move on. And that's the ideal. The flywheel is working. Guys like me are doing well. Companies are getting more money to the spec as a product, serve as a function. So, you know, what happened is just people had no faith in these deals. Again, a combination of deals that were probably not great for SPACs, challenging capital markets environment broadly. And so the safest thing was just to get your money back.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so it's like, yeah, and liquidation is people just everyone gets their money back. It's over. Okay, so now I'm looking at another chart, which we put up, which is the SPAC redemption rate. And in December 2022, it was 98%, meaning for every $100 of SPAC money, when the deal happened, 98% $98 went back to the investor, only $2 to the company. That seems pretty, I don't want to say messed up. I mean, but like what's going on there? And then also this chart only goes back to April 2022. What was it like in the boom time of 2021? Really”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you saw this huge surge rate, and the first was driven by fear, right? Sponsors knew they couldn't get a deal done. They're licking their wounds, and they're like, I'm not getting taxed twice. And the buyback tax was supposed to start January 1. So everyone was in a race to liquidate before your end. Then you still are in this environment where it's challenging to get deals done. And so you've seen kind of these liquidations continue, but you kind of had that pull forward of a lot of Delaware specs that should have liquidated in Q1 liquidated in Q4 instead. And now you're kind of, you know, we're still seeing elevated liquidations, I'd say, at least relative to in boom times right in 2020, there were no liquidations. Just pulling up right now, you know, we saw.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They'll own treasuries underneath which aren't being taxed. And so you are basically owning treasuries without paying taxes”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Delaware domiciled specs if you are a Cayman domiciled spec there is no tax, there's no excise tax. You can actually argue there's a tax arbitrage in owning a Cayman SPAC because again this is getting sidetracked but if you own a payment spec for over a year it's long-term capital gains and”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it should be paid by this. Well, this was the argument, should it be paid by the sponsor or by the trust? And kind of interestingly, so you had a couple of sponsors that didn't commented at all, left it kind of open-ended. And as part of this redemption process, there's two votes. There's, do you want to redeem your stock? Yes or no? And separately, are you going to vote to approve the extension? And at a time of uncertainty, investors kind of made their own certainty. And if you did not explicitly indemnify the trust account from the excise tax, then investors voted down your extension. And so what ended up happening is you would see a press release come out from the sponsor that they're indemnifying the trust account. It's the excise tax and then magically the extensions will be approved. So where we are right now is that the market, if you will, is that sponsors have to cover the excise tax. Now, this is, again, we're pretty technical now. This is an issue only for”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the next thing that happened is when SPACs wanted an extension. So let's say you have a SPAC and your deadline was March 31st, you're allowed to file a proxy that says we want to extend for nine months to December 31st. But at that same time, anyone who's an investor in the SPAC has the right to redeem their shares. So again, we kind of come full circle on why this trust floor is so important. And so the question became like, well, who's on the hook for this potential excise tax? The way it's written now, that redemption event is technically a share buyback and that triggers a tax. And so some spot.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Liquidation, and that's exactly what happened. And so you saw this huge spike. Funny enough towards, I think, on like December 26th or something, very close in the year, we got some guidance from Treasury that a liquidation is not considered a buyback, but it still looks like a redemption is. And so the next thing that happened, and sorry because this gets technical and a little...”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Already kind of licking their wounds that their risk capital is at risk and saying like, wait a second, if I have a $200 million spac and I liquidate and that's considered a buyback, I have to pay another $2 million. And then there was all this debate of, well, could that come out of the trust account? And then you had SPAC investors saying like, wait a second, like that's not what I signed up for. And if you read the trust agreement, some of them are very specific on tax that you can only remove franchise and income tax. Some are broader and say tax. And so there's a lot of uncertainty. And so if you had a SPAC that was going to liquidate in, let's say, within the first quarter, you knew that there wasn't enough time to announce a deal and get it closed. So you might as well liquidate. And so we saw a lot of these facts, like the SPAC trade in Q4 was to buy Delaware SPACs with a Q1 maturity because they were likely going to file for an early.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you're familiar with the Inflation Reduction Act that was passed at the end of last year, one of the provisions in there was a 1% tax on stock buybacks. And for whatever reason, SPAC redemptions are considered stock buybacks. And what was unclear at the time, which has been clarified since, is does a liquidation count as liquidity to count as a buyback or not? And so you had a bunch of SPAC sponsors that were sitting”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. And what you're doing is a highly complex strategy that employs leverage that needless to say not suitable for the average investors or most investors. Okay, so I'm looking at your from your deck. You've got a chart that you made. And if I have your permission to put it on screen, we can. If I don't, people will just have to see this in their heads. The liquidations, there's an immense amount of liquidations in December. Why in that yellow bar? Why were there so many liquidations in December 2022? Why did it go down in January? And why are the kind of on the move from January, February, March?”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And again, for me, I can't own any of these things post DSPAC. But if I can find these asymmetric situations, it's pretty interesting.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rumble, like we were saying, it's up 3% since it's from its $10 price. It peaked at 16, so a couple people there made a bunch of money. And look, it bottomed out at six. So if you were tracking this thing and like the fundamentals and were buying it lower, then you've done okay too. I'm just more, you know, so taking a step back, 100% agree. If you're going to be a medium or long-term investor, you need to underwrite the business, the valuation, the fundamentals, get comfortable. For me, it's finding these opportunities where I'm either buying something for yield or I'm buying something where candidly if you own Columbia right now, the yield isn't that interesting, but they're out there telling this really interesting story. And if they get enough interest for the stock to go from 1020 one today to 11, then that's great. And they actually tell a good story. They have a good SPAC sponsor, a little early stage, which, as you know.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's interesting. I want to say, I feel like your criteria are different from a long term investor. You're looking for, you can hold up for a little bit and you'll get some appreciation. You'll get a little bump. And yeah, okay, people like Rumble because they're right-wing investors who share that political belief and they may like the platform they want to support it. But you'll be able to get out. You know what I'm saying? If the business does not work in five years, you'll still be fine, whereas someone who like rode the wave down will not.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Types of deals have worked. Maybe this one will too. And by the way, if it doesn't, you don't lose anything. So I think that one's a pretty interesting setup.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But to your point, it's not even about the political views, it's about the pattern that there's this investor group that's willing to back these sorts of entities. And so the name of the game in Spack Arb is how do I find opportunities with upside risk without changing my downside parameters? And so you look at something like Columbia that has, you know, it's trading at about trust value. And so you can own this if it gets that retail following, then it trades well before the deal vote. You make money. If it doesn't, you sell it current or redeem, you don't lose money. And so it's just really interesting that you could get this kind of asymmetric skew. Now, I think they, in this case, they're pricing this deal pretty reasonably. And I was flipping through their deal deck pretty interesting. They've actually been able to get a million subscribers onto their platform, a million users, I should say. So again, it's just kind of interesting when you see these patterns of these couple.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But that may be independent of the fundamentals of the business. I don't know about Black Rifle Coffee, but Rumble, I mean, it's a network business and they're basically trying to go against YouTube. They're like, oh, we'll get Russell Brand to not be a leftist and we'll pay him to make videos on Rumble. It's a tough business model. That's all I'll say regardless of my political views or Rumble, which is a little more right-leaning.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so setting political views aside, those companies have actually traded pretty reasonably for SPACs. Like Rumble is still, I see here it's down 6% today, but it's still above $10. And so these types of companies have been able to find kind of an interesting investor base that some of the other SPACs haven't been able to.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What's really interesting is this is kind of, let's call it, they chose a target that's going on the anti-woke movement, as they call it, right? And so very pro-America, and I don't know if you ever looked at Black Rifle Coffee, that was a coffee company for veterans, or I guess the more extreme version would be Rumble.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. And, but listen, at the same time, as if you at one point, Deutsche Bank was giving 10 times leverage on SPACs, right? So if you were levered up 10 times at 11 and they went to 10, you're done. So phase two, when they announce a deal, you're seeing some trade okay, but there's usually a bit of skepticism until kind of the ultimate deal close. And so like UHG, which I mentioned a few minutes ago, it was trading at around trust value and then the deal flows and it had a little short squeeze moment and now it's hanging at 11, which we can debate if that's a real price or if there's going to be some pipe pressure. But again, I just think that's entry real business. Another one I think this is really interesting is there's a spec called Columbia CLBR. We are along that full disclosure”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it was a $10 IPO, $11, just a common now, not the unit, $11 waiting for the deal, and 14 an announcement. Because I remember thinking like. Is kind of crazy that you're $3 up, one dollar down.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And because you're having stocks, but particularly speculative technology stocks, or even just technology stocks are going up. Some people saying it's a new bull market. I mean, NVIDIA is up a gazillion percent just this year. Are you seeing the actual SPAC units go up, not the DSPs, but the SPAC units going up in anticipation of, oh, when this DSPCs will be worth more?”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's our standard. You would hope in a deal like this that they could raise some outside capital. My intuition is that a company that does AI and machine learning probably isn't profitable. I mean, we saw that Microsoft have to invest $10 billion into OpenAI or something. Now, obviously, scale there is night and day different, I'm assuming from here. But again, want to see some third-party capital, want to see a path from where they're going today to profitability Your interest gets peaked. It's trading up five cents, which again, in the good old days, it would trade up $5. But for today, five cents is fine. Now we just wait and hopefully get some more information.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, that's pretty standard. Again, in 2020, in the 2020 world where you could raise a huge pipe, maybe some of them would say like, okay, we'll take some chips off the table. But in this day and age where it's just so hard to raise capital, you want to keep all the capital to the business. We talk about alignment. I think that's a good sign of alignment. If you told me that, hey, all the existing investors are cashing out, I would say, just that doesn't feel like where I want to risk my chips.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Agile Algo, the underlying company. I have no idea. It says that the existing equity holders will roll 100% of their equity into the combined public company. Is that normal? Don't they normally keep a lot of it themselves?”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, And the flip side is right this is why the deal decks are so important because I read this paragraph and I see some buzzwords. I see AI. I say cool, interesting, you know, I'm not smart enough to know what this target is and I'll look forward to looking at the deal deck. I mean, one of the nice things for me is even if it's not an investable opportunity, I look at every deal deck and you just see a lot of interesting things. And like I said in the beginning, you hope they work out because a lot of them would make your life better, be cooler, be an interesting experience, but some of them, and again, this isn't a comment on this back because I just don't know enough, but some of them are just too hard to invest behind at this stage.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and AI, it's just really hard for me to understand what the businesses are. You know, I mean, if it's okay, you're selling chips, you're buying materials for a dollar, and you're selling them for two. That's like, I guess you can. But yeah, I mean, I really don't understand computer science really at all. I'm sure I won't understand this company. And I'm sure a lot of people don't understand this company.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sometimes this happens where these facs announce their letter of intent binding or non-binding, in this case binding. I honestly don't understand why they do that. In my opinion, they should wait until they're at the definitive agreement stage. That's when the contract is actually signed. But nevertheless, they announced this. And look, this could be a great target. I don't know a lot about it. I don't know a ton about the AI space, except I think we've all used ChatGPT and whatnot. You know, it's always fun when the buzzwords come out, but hopefully there is something here.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh yeah, I have a lot here. AI. Here we go. This company's a maker of enterprise-grade natural language code generator for machine learning and data management platforms. It utilizes generative artificial intelligence, AI, techniques to automate AI codes, development, and scaling to other technology stacks.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Letter of intent first back, and I'm going to read it to you. I think you'll get a kick out of it too many spack tickers these days.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm pulling it up right now. So there's 2.64 billion of debt. So 2.64 on 450 is. It's healthily lever. Now, as we've seen in situations like this, when you're just under six times levered, if they write the ship, there'll be an opportunity to create a lot of value in the equity, your traditional private equity model. But again, no view on the company from here, but just more making the point that when you look at or when I look at what's everything I want to see in a spec, this had it all and still, you know, you really had to underwrite their forecasts and realized maybe things are a little painting too rosy of a picture.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's still a profitable company, and they've just been missing numbers. Their forecasts were a little too aggressive. And I was looking at this the other day because I know this is a name that people still really focus on. And so, you know, if you just look at the EBITDA forecast, which forgive me because I'm pulling them up right now, but the EBITDA forecast in November 2021 were for this company to do $680 million in 2023. As of now, that's been reduced to $453. So you million? From 681 to 453 million.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You get one. Yeah, yeah. Sorry Yeah. And so that is now down 95% from peak and probably about 80% down 90% down from its original IPO. So what happened? I mean, it was a profitable company. What happened? I don't know anything about the company.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But in my old life, I was a fintech and payments analyst. And so I think in this case, just an example of you had a high quality sponsor, you had a good business, Blackstone, and another private equity firms were the legacy owners. So on paper, CVC is the other one. So on paper, this deal checked all the boxes. And yet if you invested, you lost a lot of money.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At one point, the warrants were trading for $6. The stock today is trading at $11, but that's after a one for 12 reverse stock split. So, you know, this is, I would call PaySafer example of when you take a company that's just levered up a lot and you miss numbers, right? It gets punished. I don't want to say even disproportionately, but the equity is more at risk. There's a new management team there. I don't follow it as closely anymore because, again, it's just a little different from what we're doing.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If it was a payments company, it was taken public through Bill Foley's back. I joke around that it is one of the best peak time slide deck in that it has like the Foley plan and the Foley upside case. And Bill Foley is a great investor. I've had a lot of respect for the guy and his other spec is doing all right by SPAC terms. But this deal has obviously been just a disaster. execute a huge reverse split. And, you know, they burned a lot of institutional investors too because they went out there, they raised a big pipe. You know, again, Bill Foley was behind FNF as the country's largest tile insurance company. He was behind FIS, another big payments company. So he had all the credentials and pedigree. And, you know, this thing was a high flyer. I remember I owned Warrens in this. I owned Warrens and PaySafe, you know, when they announced the deal.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, look, and there's just to be clear, I know I've been harping on cash flow, cash flow, cash flow, and I like most other investors say that, but there have been plenty of spacs with cash flow that have just massively underperformed as well. So that's definitely not.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's good advice, and I'd also say, like, I, you know, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett said that sometimes they can pick up a company's, you know, annual report and they read it for 50 seconds and they say, oh, next, because there's a red flag. For me, that's been very hard with public companies, but with SPACs, it's actually pretty easy to see some red flag. So if you see a red flag, just move on to the next one.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In terms of they probably want to get this deal done because otherwise that target is wasting money. And so we've seen a couple of energy deals that I think are pretty interesting. But I would encourage if you're looking at these deals and you want to be fundamental, you really need to filter for the ones with positive EBITDA and cash flow. And even if it's something a little more, what's called futuristic, probably the wrong term, but more, let's call it more growthy, like just make sure that they have the balance sheet to kind of get from where they are today to where they need to be.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everything we're going on with the SEC and crypto lately. And you can make the case that, no, there's no way because it's crypto related or you can make the case that, you know what, this isn't an exchange. They don't have customer accounts. All the issues that we saw with some of the other specs that ultimately liquidated because they couldn't get their deals closed. And we actually just saw a few weeks ago a crypto related spack get done. So if you think this gets done, one, I think it's interesting because again, I'm just really focused on profitable businesses. And two, if you want to go a step further, the warrants here, a multi-annual are eight cents. And I just think that if you get a deal done that has positive EBITDA and the perception of crypto exposure and what that does to the volto the option line, that could be really interesting. And there's some other deals we're looking at where the target is actually funding the spec. And so you see good alignment.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know if I knew that again for me, my bar is lower. I just want to see, you know, normal financials, good profitability. I'll give you a good example and full disclosure we're long list, but there's a spec called GSRM, GSR2 Meteora. And they are merging with a Bitcoin ATM business. And I think this is super interesting because the Bitcoin ATM business has been doing about $40 million of EBITDA a year. It's not kind of a hockey stick. That's literally what it's been at. And so, you know, you can kind of pencil out, okay, this is $40 million plus or minus. You can sit there, be fundamental, will it grow? Will it not grow? What are they going to do with their cash that they generate? And, you know, the big question is for someone like this is will the SEC approve it? Because we know.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are there any deals that you think actually are legit deals like, oh, wow, like I'm not gonna say the next Amazon is gonna spack, but let's just say, I don't know. Lift a lift the lift is going to go public.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think Blue Whale is 10. I'm not going to guess. I'm just going to tell you. It was $10 as of Q4, and all of a sudden it was $1004 as of Q1. And that's what got me, you know, I have a tracker as a lot of guys that covers backs do. And it's like, this isn't supposed to go up. It's supposed to be 10. And so you start digging in and you say, okay, well, now this makes no sense, right? If you're in cache with no interest, how do you have interest income? And all of a sudden you dig in to try to see what happened and you see, well, now they're earning interest. And so it's just an example of how in this world where you just have to read the fine print.”
2023-06-19 · Forward Guidance · SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT