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Louis-Vincent Gave

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2025-04-14
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2025-04-14
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  1. “Moving on to new measures. So, you know, mask mandates and shutting down schools and full lockdowns and so on and so forth, regardless of whether it worked or not. And so with this framework, I think we're seeing exactly, of course, the same thing with the Ukraine situation. You have a horrible event that occurs, you know, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. And the clamor is, of course, for something to be done. And before we even have a chance to think, okay, what is this something that we should do to deal with this? We just implement a bunch of measures one after the other. The first measure is the freezing of Russia's central bank reserves. The second measure is the seizing of the oligarchs assets. The third measure is the seizing of Russians' bank accounts in Switzerland. The fourth is massive increases in military spending. And before we've even had a chance to stop and think, hold on, if we do this, what are the consequences?”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “In case people don't know CYA stands for Cover Your Ass. And I fear that this is increasingly how policy gets done in the Western world. At least that's the thesis of the piece that you mentioned. And I wrote a first CYA piece surrounding COVID. And at the time of COVID, what became pretty clear to me was that you obviously had a tough event unfold, you know, this start of this pandemic. And a clamor all of a sudden rises on social media, something needs to be done. And so you get, I don't know if you've ever followed the British TV show. It's one of my favorites called Yes, Prime Minister, where time and time again the politician is in a situation where something must be done. This is something. So let's just do that regardless of whether it works or not. That's almost irrelevant. And I think we saw that in spades with COVID. It was a case of every week something had to be done before the previous thing that had been decided had even been implemented. We were already”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “You just wrote this recent piece that relates to what's been happening in your perspectives, starting with the famous letters CYA. And I would love to just have you walk through some of your takes on the current situation and the parallels that you're drawing from.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “My father was an odd money manager, and that he, I think he fell into it a little bit by accident. To be honest, neither his temperament nor definitely his family background. He came from a military family. And pretty much aside from my dad every male on his side of family was in the military. So the dinner conversation actually didn't really focus on markets. It was always surrounding current events for sure. But it was very much heavy on history and fairly heavy on religion as well.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “Was that I would sort of spend two weeks in British Columbia, two weeks in Hong Kong, and go back and forth, but obviously COVID intervened. And so I've spent the better part of the past two years. And is what I think one of the most beautiful spots in the world.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “So put him back to work. And so he and I started a small research firm and we're joined pretty quickly by Anato Kaletsky, who is a friend of ours and a famous financial journalist in the UK. And pretty quickly everything, so this was all done out of London, but everything we're looking at was telling us that China was going to be a massive shift into the global financial and economic infrastructure. I moved to Hong Kong. My father Charles moved to Hong Kong. We opened an office there. We teamed up with a fellow called Arthur Kroeber based in Beijing, and he joined us as a partner. Yeah, and that's basically how things took off. So I spent roughly 20 years in Hong Kong. All my children were born there. It's a huge part of my life. A couple years ago, just before COVID, mostly for school reasons, we decided my wife and I to move to British Columbia.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “I'm French originally. I grew up in France. I went to college in the US. Went back to France. I was an officer in the French Army for a little bit in mountain infantry. Then I joined Paribas. And throughout this period, my father had created a big money management firm called Cursitor Eaton. He was the CIO there. The firm was sold to Alliance Capital in the mid-90s. My father stayed there and he retired in the late 90s. And he kept writing things here and there, mostly for his friends. He left at Alliance Capital. And I saw what he was doing, what he was writing, and I thought, oh, you know, this is pretty interesting stuff. Maybe we can make a business out of it. Now, granted, this was the late 90s and then late 90s, you can make a business out of anything. With that, plus the combination of my mother telling me you got to get your father out of the house. He's driving me nuts having a retired husband is the worst of both worlds. It's more husband and less.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “Well, first of all, yeah, thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. I'm one of the founding partners of a company called Gafcal. We're based in Hong Kong in Beijing. I've spent really the better part of my past 25 years looking at China and at China's sort of major impact on economies and on global financial markets. GAFCAL is, when people know us, they know us because we publish a lot of research. And sometimes they also know us because we actually do manage money. We manage institutional money mostly in the Asian markets and specifically in the Chinese sphinx income markets, which is where the bulk of our assets are deployed. So we're a somewhat unusual firm in that we do provide a lot of independent research, and that's where about two-thirds of our staff works. And then we have another third of our staff.”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “My guest on today's show is Louis Vincent Gauv, the founding partner and CEO of GovCal, one of the world's leading independent providers of macro research and GovCal Capital, a manager of $2.7 billion in assets. Louis launched GovCal alongside his father in 2000 and has become a go-to source for creative research on global economics and asset allocation, particularly in China. He recently penned CYA as a guiding principle, dissecting the consequences of Western government responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He joined me to discuss the key takeaways. Our conversation starts with Louis's background and founding of GovCall and turns to the potential second-order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending. We closed”

    2025-04-14 · Capital Allocators · [REPLAY] Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source