YouSaid · the spoken record

Luke Gromen

lines on the record: 94
first: 2022-10-26
most recent: 2022-10-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Thank you. Yeah, you can find out more about it. We have institutional and mass market products at FFTT-LLC.com. You can find out more about it there. And I've got an active Twitter feed at Luke Gromman, L-U-K-E-G-R-O-M-E-N.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. So it's, you know, exactly. I'll leave it in the ground. Well, you can't do that either. Now what? All right. Well, here we are. I mean, it's, you know. Whereas politics by another means, right?”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we're watching that play out as we speak. It's like, hey I think that's the crux of the Ukraine conflict is hey, we want to pay you in currency that's going to fall eight to 10% per year against your oil. That's fine. I'll take it. And then I'm going to put it in gold. Like, no, no, you're not allowed to do that.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He say it ton That is money we took issue with something he said a couple weeks ago about the great, you know, Britain can't have a currency crisis. They owe debt in their own currency. It's like, yes, technically that's true. But they're short energy, dude. I assure you they can have a currency crisis.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Two things strong currency and productivity. What does Bitcoin do? It increases or it incentivizes productivity, increases a deflationary currency or deflationary reserve asset incentivizes productivity increases. And gold, yeah, they can stack paper on it, but at the end of the day, if once a quarter or once a month the oil supplier says, I want physical and I want physical at this rate, that's going to be your price. And the US used to fly a plane, I think it was monthly to Riyadh full of bullion. It can be done. People's like, oh, there's a lot of shipping. We ship a lot of water everywhere on trucks too. We only got 25 days of diesel left and we're still shipping friggin' water on trucks. Go, you know. Meanwhile, sillier things”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not a fiat currency. And so on the other side of however this all plays out, I think you're going to see the incentives based on experience, which was the experience of mankind going back millennia, which is whoever has the cheapest energy wins and how do you have the cheapest energy?”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, the euro's down. The euro's down. They've gotten more competitive. No, they haven't. Their energy costs are so high that their industry is shutting down. And so when you think about it that way,”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it'll come back to the energy, though. I think that's what's really important is that it'll come back to the energy of And this is something a lot of classical economists are still missing, right?”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the key, right? Your point's exactly right. But I think the process of doing that, I think we're watching in real time. It goes back to the Zoltan quote of, we've had a Putin moment and not a Volcker moment. And so power is shifting from paper. Two stuff as we speak. I like how that”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It depends, in theory, you would think that this inflationary would move power from those people to those closer to the oil well and the crop and the making of things. And that, I think we're seeing that. That goes back to the point of, hey, this is the sovereign debt boys against the energy boys, and the energy boys are winning it going away. It's like Bama against St. Mary's School of the Blind right now. Are they playing Tennessee? Are they playing Tennessee?”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think the way it fixes is a strong word, but right now, and this gets to Jeff Booth's book, which is brilliant, right? Which is the fundamental mismatch between the deflationary impacts of technology and the necessary inflationary Forces you need to keep the debt sustainable. And so This at least fully reserves the debt because the deflationary impacts of technology are making this debt unpayable, right? So then you're back to the Inflate or die. It's default or inflate. If you inflate and buy back all that debt, right now there's no debt. From an equity position, you can then let those deflationary forces run their natural course from this higher price level without running the risk of bankrupting the system.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so they're done either way. The only option is right now they're feigning that they're going to let credit risk happen to sovereigns. It's not going to happen. They can't do austerity. They're going to have to fully reserve the debt. Sorry. So I'm sorry, go ahead.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So they're going to have to, if they don't get inflation down, they're going to have to reserve the full debt. The problem is they let debt, they waited too long to do this and they get so high after COVID and they never reformed all these Western entitlements, et cetera, that. The actions they need to take to get inflation down. Presents credit risk to these sovereigns. Nominal credit risk you won't get”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Voila, gold will probably have six figures, but you will be out of debt, right? I mean, you will get every dollar you're paid, I promise. It's going to buy you two eggs, but it's, you know, but this whole system was a giant. Put option cost. It was a giant bet that inflation would never come. And once, to your point, it's a critical point you made is once inflation came, they have to get it down or else they're going to have to reserve the whole system. They're going to have to reserve all the debt. They're going to have to buy it all. It will all get sold to them.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like in three months. Or, you know, there's other ways you can do it. I mean, the Fed could also, the Treasury could instruct the Fed to revalue gold to U.S. official gold to $31 trillion. I don't know what that works out two pounds, but it's a lot. And by doing that, that creates a deposit into the Treasury General account. This is in the Fed's operating manner. You can go find it. And then the Treasury can take the money and buy back all the debt and U.S. government will be debt free.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it reminds me of a conversation I had with our friend Jeff Booth, right? We were talking about his book and the fundamental mismatch, a different fundamental mismatch, but it's the same kind of dynamic. And we both try to set it at the same time, which was like, they're just going to have to fully reserve the debt. What's going to happen here We're sitting around doing is waiting for the trigger that forces them to fully reserve the debt. And when I say fully reserve the debt, what I mean is the Fed puts the euro dollar market on its balance sheet.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's the same problem that the British pensions had. They're going to have to turn seller to treasury. It's not liquid. The problems at the sovereign level now. So they're going to sell treasuries to raise funds into an illiquid market. It's going to be the same thing. Treasury yields are going to go just like the guilt yields did that day.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The one thing I don't know anything about Credit Suisse or any of the specifics, I really don't know all the credit aspects of the European banking system. Here's what I have observed that I think is of interest as it relates to this conversation from just a mechanics perspective. And it's this, coming out of the 08 crisis, policymakers regulated, all these Western banks into buying more safe assets. So in the next crisis, they didn't have to bail them out. They would have these safe, liquid assets to sell and that way they don't have to bail them out. So guess what the safe liquid asset is? So in America, the high quality... Treasuries Treasuries. So as this happens, if we do have a recession, if we do have a credit event, we just talked about how out of balance the treasury market is, how the Treasury market is trading like Dogecoin”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh no, these are like, yeah, this is what I expected to happen back in April when I said, hey, they're going to have to pivot.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because when push comes to shove, people don't like to be cold and they don't like to be hungry, and I can't blame them. So I think they're going to have to do that. But again, I'm six, seven months into that recognition of like they're going to have to do that. And it's like, guys, you're going to have to do that, right? It's like the meme, right? It's like you're going to price energy on currency, right? You're going to price energy on your own currency, right? And I'm like, you know, I'm like...”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they made Italy's PM look like Putin, right? And they'll find somebody that will do it. And that's where I think this is going. So it's ironic is for all the talk about regime change in Russia. It's not going to be regime change in Russia. It doesn't be regime change. It doesn't be regime change in France and in Germany and in UK and all these places.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reason I am somber about it is unfortunately, I think the pain is going to get a lot worse in Europe. I mean, I saw, you know, who knows what you see online, right? I started seeing protests in Paris this week, right? There's your first like. You saw some of the farmer protests and whatever it was, I think Netherlands earlier this summer, whatever. I don't know that that was particularly related to fuel or cost. I think there was a separate issue. I think we're going to see a winter of unrest and discontent in Europe and in the UK like we've never seen. And at some point, their leaders are going to have to, either their leaders are going to have to or they're going to turn their leaders over.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and so it pains me because four months ago, five months ago, I mean, I wrote a report in April where I said Japan has upsized QE or upsized at what yield curve control into an inflation and energy spike, a major crisis will ensue if the US doesn't follow suit. It was literally the title of the report. It was a long title. And so by April, I was like, guys, hello. The only way out of this is you're going to call up Russia and buy energy in your own currency. You know, it's like, hello, McFly. Hello, McFly. Hello, McFly. And they've just kept running the Weimar Germany economic playbook, all of them. Hey, let's print money and buy energy when we're short energy. Dude, you know how that works out. Well, no, no, it'll be fine. It'll be fine. Okay, good luck. And so we're still at the okay. Good luck stage of this.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're going to have to. The only question, I mean, and it pains me to say, I've been flip about a number of comments in this interview, and partly is out of frustration, partly is out of, you're my buddy, and we're having fun. And it's a Wednesday night, right? But it pains me. To see the lack of awareness, it's either a lack of awareness. The leadership of Europe has been compromised in some way that they are acting against the interests of Europe.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Multi-currency settlement of energy. I think that's what this is all about. And that's what partly ties back to why I think this is partly why the Fed has been weaponized. I think the core crux of this war is Russia's trying to do this and we're trying to stop it.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They said this summer, they said they would accept, they would buy the currencies of friendly nations. And if they're selling energy and buying the currencies of friendly nations, that is functionally no different than selling oil and gas in those currencies. And I think that's what this whole thing is all about. Oh, yeah, no doubt. It's about moving to a multilateral and basically.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which is kind of what they're doing. You're going to inflate the currency. You go into austerity, which is basically you start starving and freezing people. That's not going to be popular. And oh, by the way, you can do that when you're not wildly over indebted, in which they all are, and because austerity when you're wildly over-indebted is nominal default. Bond market's actually not going to like that almost as much as it doesn't like printing. Or you start buying energy in your own currency. You leave the dollar system. You go, I can't take it. And if my choice is print and starve or austerity and starve or call Russia and say, fine, we'll buy energy in pounds. We'll buy energy in euros and we'll sign a deal and we'll encourage Ukrainians to do the same.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, this movie, and again, that's why I say this gets really, this can get really scary really fast. And I don't think people appreciate that where You got two months. Okay, so then what do you do? You have three options. You print the money.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is a piggyback. Yeah, break the piggy bank and you can I lose my job. I got 16 months of mortgage and food in the bank. And that's what this is. Europe has two.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the bigger thing is from this point, the bond markets and the currencies are breaking. And so I think what we're in the very early days of reverting to is I think currencies will start to trade increasingly on import reserve coverage, reserve import coverage, which is a how many months of imports do you have in FX reserves? Once you're out, you are done with a capital D. And if you look at that, what's interesting is a lot of the Asian nations and the Swiss have a lot of import cover.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I guess it's trained by appointment as it is. Which is incredible, right? Because that's the second biggest bond market in the world, if I'm not mistaken, or at least it used to be.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think they are in the same two horses, one ass problem where they've got to save the bond market or they've got to save the currency and maybe they're taking turns trying to save one and then not the other. I mean, I saw last week, I think the JGB tenure didn't trade for three or four straight days, right? So like.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And now you've burned the boats. Whoever did it burned the boats. As I say, it could have been the Russians, right? That screws Europe and the Americans way more than it screws the Russians.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On the other side, the Western sovereigns are so indebted that they absolutely cannot survive if they don't trade paper that falls eight to 10% in energy terms for energy. They blow up. We're watching it happen before our very eyes empirically. So what's so scary is you have this nuclear-armed energy power that cannot afford to take it and this nuclear armed powers that can't afford to not do this deal, the negative real rates in energy terms. And it's really an unstoppable object against an immovable force. I mean, you're really, when this breaks, it isn't going to be like a little move. I mean, these are very tense tectonic plates. When they slip, we're starting to maybe see signs of that, but it's not going to be like, oh, well, inflation is going to go up a little bit. No, the printing friggin' money to pay for energy.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At 8 to 10 percent per year as it has. And that's debt issuance, that's price of oil you are going to need. Oil is going to have to rise by 8 to 10 percent per year for the foreseeable future because of peak cheap energy, right? To develop the energy you need to sustain the debt, you're going to need prices to rise because we're out of the cheap stuff. We need to keep having oil. But you can't have oil producers. You can't pay them in paper that falls eight to 10% per year against their energy output. They're just better keeping the energy on the ground.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And he can't do that because his country will collapse. He will collapse. His country will collapse, his people will starve. That is a fundamental red line cannot do it. OPEC has the same problem, which is why they cited, quote-unquote, sided with Russia, as our government said. Again, they cannot sell finite oil production for paper that is falling in oil terms.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The scariest thing about what we're in. And I think people are starting to see the problem, but to me, why it's so scary is there is a fundamental mismatch. There's a fundamental disagreement. And Putin actually gave a speech in June, and it was not covered well here, of course. He said something along the lines of they are printing, they are devaluing. There's $7.5 trillion NFX reserves that are devaluing by 8 to 10% per year. And that's the whole fundamental argument of gold, Bitcoin, right? Basically, he is pointing out that you're asking me to sell my oil for paper that is going to fall against oil terms by 8 to 10% per year.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you look at the amount of work, the amount of energy contained in a barrel, it has been estimated at 25,000 man hours of work. And the problem is that Western policymakers, when they decided to pick this fight to get involved in this fight, They said, oh, well, it's not that bad. Run the G.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Russia produces whatever it is, 10 million barrels of oil a day. Okay. The value of an oil, the value, everyone did it on price of oil, 80 times 10 million barrels a day times 365 days. Oh, Russia's GDP. They're just a gas station. John McCain. It's a country masquerading our gas station masquerading as a country. No, no, no, no. The value of oil is there's $25,000 man hours of work contained in one barrel of oil. The value of a man hour work is $20 an hour just for easy map. Every barrel of oil has a value of $500,000 per barrel. And Russia produces 10 million barrels a day. And these people thought they could strip 10 million barrels a day of 500,000 of value a barrel out. And bad things wouldn't happen?”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the fundamental error that they all made was they looked at GDP and they said, oh, Russia's only the size of Indiana, whatever that is, right? Italy. So what? It's like a moneyball thing, right? Well, that guy, you know, he only hits 220. Yeah, well, he walks. He's on base percentage is 500. Walks as good as a hit. Same thing here”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this is why I said it's like, yeah, the dollar go to 150 or 200, but you're not going to like waiting in line with a shotgun to fill up the gasoline station. That's what happens at that. I mean, is the Northeast United States going to be getting their share of natural gas for winter 23-24 in that scenario where Europe and Japan? Or does it come down to who has the Navy to direct it? And if that's the case, we're not even in markets anymore. We're now like. That's where we are in this whole game. And to me, you go back, I'm sure we talked in either March or April, and I just said, I don't think Western policymakers understand what they got themselves into. They thought they had all the leverage and they didn't.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they don't have the reserve currency. So, like if they're going to do the same thing. And that's part of why you're going to see yields go up and up and up. Because when it comes to do I want to hold treasuries or do I want to freeze? It's a very, very easy decision.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've looked at it, but not nearly the depth. And the short answer is, yeah, the Western social democracies, broadly speaking, are in roughly the same positions. And I just don't know the sensitivities. I do know that their energy positions are way worse than ours.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They go, the more that 125 is going to go to 126, 128, 130, 135. And at some point in that process, people are going to go. The US is broke. I need to own gold and not like the paper stuff. I need to own physical now. And you're going to see a separation where you're already seeing it. GLD has been rising against TLT all year. Yeah, gold's down and it sucks, but it's been rising all year. It's going to start going up nominally with rates going up big at some point in that process. And Bitcoin probably does really well too.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So now it's 40% interest pro forma and with no enrollment growth in plain vanilla recession 85% entitlements. You're done now because we're the reserve currency, because you have the euro dollar system, because people who say, oh, you're saying that dollar's dying. No, I'm saying that it's going to be 125% of tax receipts or interest-like obligations. Whether the dollar dies or not falls or not, because again, I don't put hyperbolic. Whether the dollar falls or not is dependent entirely on if the Fed finances that or not. It goes back to that original grid. $125% of tax receipts on interest expense like items in a recession, plain vanilla recession, if the Fed does not print the money, if you liked the last three months, dollar up, treasury yields up every friggin day, you're going to love next year because the dollar is just going to keep going up and treasury yields are going to find where the buyer is.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“31 trillion in debt pro forma as a trillion five trillion five is on that 20 decline golly it's It's 40 of tax receipts Do you know what 40% tax of just the interest is? That's an emerging market. That's like banana republic territory”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's apply that 9% to Medicare, Medicaid, Health, and Human Services, because that's actually not far off. That number chugs ahead at 6% to 9% almost every year. So let's just say it's nine across entitlements, which is Social Security and total entitlements and health and human services. So I'm applying that to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Health, and Human Services, 9% inflation. No enrollment growth, mind you, no enrollment growth with however many millions of boomers are going to enroll more. So again, conservative. 20% declining receipts, 9% cola across. You're looking at just entitlements in the United States being around 85 to 90 percent of tax receipts next year. Now, apply the 5% terminal discount rate that everyone's getting. Oh, it's five, it's five and a quarter, it's four and a half.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's probably not, but let's just be conservative to make the point that this is the thing I don't think bond market most people in the bond market are still paying attention to and most investors. Vanilla recession, 20% decline in tax receipts. Social Security just came out and said they're doing, I think it's a 9% percent.”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, not just asset price capital gains, but incomes, right? As stock options are all taxed in order ordinary income. Okay, so”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dollar terms, right? So it's $900 billion for round math from last year. So that's the thing that nobody talks about. It's like, oh, we have this bob, we have this bubble. Well, guess what else you had to bubble in? You had a bubble in tax receipts. It's unbelievable. They were up 40%. Because it's all tied to asset prices”
2022-10-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC101: 4th Quarter Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT