YouSaid · the spoken record

Luke Mikic

lines on the record: 56
first: 2022-11-16
most recent: 2022-11-16
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yes, I'm all over Twitter. My handle is just Luke, Mikhail21, my write lots of articles for Amber. So they're a Bitcoin-only company. Based in Australia, what used to be my home country. Write lots of articles for Amber. They also help produce and edit my podcast. So it's just Bitcoin made simple. I have YouTube channel podcast. Do lots of educational videos on YouTube and I'm always talking smack on Twitter so you can find that.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think we've just about crushed it. We've touched on all sorts of different topics, and I've gone down all sorts of different rabbit holes in this one. I think we've got it all pressing. Thank you so much for having me.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have conservative numbers like a $1 million Bitcoin or a $2 million Bitcoin, then I would encourage the listener to also go and have a look at the compound annual growth rate of, say, global GDP and just run the numbers. If you think GDP is going to grow by 3% or 4% per year, you kind of figure out how much of that is going to be stored into the best savings account that we've seen in human history. And all of a sudden, you're looking at some pretty bullish Bitcoin numbers, even when you started a relatively low base at $1 or $2 million of coin.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's be conservative for a minute. I also ran some conservative maths, and in another article I wrote, I said, okay, let's be conservative and let's say you think the price of Bitcoin is only going to be $5 million a coin on a Bitcoin standard. Well, then I kind of laid out the case. Well, okay, when we're on a Bitcoin standard, the GDP is still going to grow. And like if GDP, I ran some bullish numbers on a Bitcoin standard, I think GDP is going to grow by like 10% per year. But like you can run whatever compound annual growth rate you want. But all of a sudden, if you think GDP is growing by 10% a year and you say, okay, 5% of the world's wealth is being stored in the world's store of value, which I think is going to be Bitcoin. That means, like Michael Saylor says, Bitcoin is going to be going up forever. Bitcoin is going to be accruing and growing at 5% per year into perpetuity or for a very long time. So even if you...”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think in the future that's only going to rise. So I think it could be 5, 10 or 15x multiplier as the available amount of Bitcoin that actually circulate in the circular economy and get smaller and smaller. So I think $65 million of coin is my conservative estimate. So much higher.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Low side. I even think that's bearish, to be honest. Because I think that maths takes into account that for every one dollar that flows into Bitcoin, it has a 3x multiplier effect. So if you try to buy $1 of Bitcoin, it pushes up the market cap 3x. And that's simply because not all the available Bitcoin actually available for sale. There's only 3 to 4 million coins that actually circulate on exchanges and circulate on and off exchanges on a regular basis. I actually think that multiplier is going to rise the closer we get to a Bitcoin standard. So I think a larger and a larger portion of the 21 million coins are going to end up in the hands of nation states, sovereign wealth funds and Michael Saylor-like types who will simply not sell their Bitcoin for 100 years. So I think instead of that multiplier being 3x, it's actually an average over the past five years of Bitcoin price data. Willie Wugo has a chart on his website and he shows that for every $1 that flows in, it has a two-degree.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would be $65 million a coin on a Bitcoin standard if 30% of the world's wealth and store of value wealth flowed into Bitcoin, looking at a $65 million Bitcoin, and that's obviously in today's dollars. That's not taking into account hybrid dollars. That's a $65 million Bitcoin in today's dollars. And if a Malibu beach house is costing $10 million a pop in California, I think a Bitcoin is going to buy a $6.5 Malibu beach houses in the future. That's the kind of purchase equivalent that I think Bitcoin could have on a Bitcoin standard.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think prepare yourselves. I think a lot of people just simply aren't ready for a hyper Bitcoinized world or the path we're going to take to get there. So I think in my eyes, Bitcoin's a very binary bet. Bitcoin either becomes the next money of the world or Bitcoin fails. And like if Bitcoin becomes the next money of the world, you can run some relatively conservative maths and you're looking at at least a 10 or a 20 million dollar price tag per Bitcoin. In that article, I ran some maths and I said, okay, there's $900 trillion of wealth in the world, if you obviously ignoring the derivatives market. I didn't even look at the one quadrillion dollars of derivatives, but say there's $300 trillion of real estate, there's hundreds of trillions of bonds, there's $100 or so trillion of fiat. I took what I thought was a conservative estimate and I said, okay, let's assume 30% of that flows into Bitcoin on a Bitcoin standard. I ran the numbers and I kind of found that the price of a bitcoin.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin to an exchange to sell it. But I think the buyer who's going to step in on the other side of that is going to have a lot more capital. Like, for example, Apple, Microsoft, what do they have? $200 billion of melting fiat currency sit in on their balance sheet. They need to start putting that to work, but they can't today when Bitcoin's a $300 or $400 billion asset class. But when that's, I don't know, $500 billion or say $5, $10 trillion asset class, that's when they'll actually start allocating to Bitcoin.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. And as the biggest pushback I get when I bring up that on-chain data and the coins leave and exchanges is, but look, when Bitcoin hits a million dollars, lots of people are going to sell their Bitcoin. And yes, they are. I agree with that. There's going to be a lot of people who maybe take some off the table when Bitcoin hits 500,000 or a million dollars. But the argument I make is, okay, as the plebs take some profits and they buy some shitcoins like real estate with their Bitcoin, what's going to happen is I think the buyer on the other side of that seller is someone like a Michael Saylor or someone like a sovereign wealth fund who is just going to indiscriminately allocate to Bitcoin. It doesn't matter what price it is. As it gets to $500,000 or as it gets to a million dollars coin, they say, okay, we just need a 1% allocation to this asset. Doesn't matter what price it is. Buy me a billion dollars of Bitcoin. And I think as the price goes up, yes, you're going to get sellers. Yes, people are going to sell.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My maths are correct. It's a little bit late here. It's nine o'clock, so my maths brain might not be working. But is that 23 Michael Saylors? He has 100,000-ish coins.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's all of a sudden no Bitcoin on exchanges for sale. I think that's going to be really, really interesting. And I think people trade in paper Bitcoin on exchanges could be left in a little bit of a root shock in the coming years.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Been absolutely evaporated from exchanges and put into the wallets of we don't know who they are, but they're people who aren't selling their Bitcoin. And I also think that's very interesting that in the past 24 months, you've watched really volatile Bitcoin price action. So we ran up from 3K to 65 back to 30, back up to 70, back down to where are we $17,000. And all throughout that time, you've watched people with very strong conviction just take the Bitcoin off the exchanges and put it into their wallet. So I do love to speculate. And if I had to speculate, I think that is the large and the smart money accumulating Bitcoin, whether that be corporations, nation states, sovereign wealth funds. I don't know who, but if you run that extrapolation forward and if you watch 7,000 or 800,000 coins leave the exchanges every two years, I think it's 2027 or 2020.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Time, but there's one chart that I really like with on chain data, and it shows the available amount of Bitcoins available for sale on exchanges. For the first 12 years of Bitcoin's life, coins were sent to exchanges. The balance or the amount of Bitcoins on exchange only grew and it peaked at 3.1 million coins in March of 2020 when those money printers got turned on and when I think the rest of the world were awakened to the fact that, hang on a minute, the monetary system is broken. We need a solution for this. And since March of 2020, what you've watched is 800,000 Bitcoin leave the exchanges. And with a beautiful thing about on-chain data is you can see where those coins are going to. And they're going to the wallets of entities who don't have a history of selling their Bitcoin. In the past 24 months, what you've watched is 35% of the available Bitcoin be.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin, you're watching public corporations like micro strategy, stack Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. You've got all the largest money managers, Altrude Jones, Bill Miller, Stanley Druckermiller. They're all watching Bitcoin. So I think 2020, it's kind of like, there's lots of indicators there that are also kind of confirming, okay, Bitcoin, the asset is actually transforming and we have a different type of asset allocator in the Bitcoin space. So I kind of think people who are looking at the past 12 years of Bitcoin price performance and saying, okay, this is how Bitcoin's going to perform in the next 12 years, I think they're going to be left wildly shocked because instead of the market being dominated by 99% of retail participants, I think moving forward, the market's going to be dominated by the largest money managers all around the world. And I know a lot of people don't like on.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I never really couldn't agree more. I think people looking at the price chart of Bitcoin over the past 18 months confuse. The normies are saying, okay, Bitcoin's down 70%. It's dead. It's not advancing. But like you say, the network effects of Bitcoin have only advanced over the past 18 months. Like another big reason why I think the 2020s is going to be this big kind of inflection point in terms of Bitcoin adoption is because Bitcoin is fundamentally a different asset. For the first 10 or 12 years of Bitcoin's life before 2020, none of the big money around the world paid any attention to Bitcoin. It was a joke. It was a speculative token 99.99% of the trading volume was all dominated by retail. And I think when the money printers got turned on in 2020, I think that awoke a lot of the biggest and the smartest money managers all around the world. I think nation states are now watching Bitcoin. I think sovereign wealth funds are watching.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other 90% of people who haven't adopted that technology will FOMO into that technology. And that's kind of where you get the steep part of that S in terms of its adoption. I was just kind of making the case, hey, look, Bitcoin is also a transformative technology. Money is a technology. I think it's going to go through a similar wave of adoption. Bitcoin is 14 years old now. Most estimates say it's somewhere between one, five, six, seven percent. I think in the 2020s we're going to watch Bitcoin go from somewhere around 5% adoption to 90% adoption. I think all the catalysts are there to send Bitcoin on an adoption wave or an adoption curve that I think a lot of people simply aren't ready for. So that's kind of the framework I looked at in that article. Like there's many catalysts that I think will actually make Bitcoin's adoption curve even more.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I essentially, Bitcoin's an emergent technology, and emergent technologies get adopted in exponential waves. And these kind of exponential adoption waves, if you were to plot them on a chart, it just looks like an S curve. I looked at the average of, say, I think it was three or four different technologies. I think it was like the personal computer, the internet, maybe the smartphone from memory. And on average, it takes a transformative technology 10 years to go from zero to 10% adoption. And then it takes an additional 10 years to go from 10% to like 90% adoption. So like mainstreaming. And all that kind of S-curve says is, okay, after a new transformative disruptive technology's been around for somewhere around 10 years on average, it kind of hits an inflection point. A critical mass is reached. Technology has reached sufficient network effects and the rest of the world.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Themselves out to dry there with some of the policy decisions they've made over the previous few years. I'm not really sure what to read into the whole geopolitical aspect of any of that.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it could be a combination of many things purely incompetence. I could go down a few different rabbit holes here talking about the World Economic Forum and Clash Wab, but I think the whole Davos crew, they're centered obviously in Switzerland and Europe. And I think those European countries, they probably get a lot of the strongest influence from kind of this whole Davos agenda of trying to turn the world into this green utopia and transition us away from oil and gas. I'm not sure how much influence Russia has in the cabinets of, I suppose, governments in Europe. I'm not sure what to read into that. Like, I mean, Donald Trump called it years before anyone. I think it was 2016 or 2017 in a video, he said, look, Europe's reliant on Russian oil and gas. This is never going to end well for them. I think what is it? 50 or 60% of oil and gas in 2021 flowed that Europe got. It all came from Russia. So they kind of left.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Transitioned away from reliable forms of energy like oil and gas and nuclear, and they tried to transition many of these huh house countries in Europe to operating solely on wind and solar. And obviously when there's no wind and there's no sun, your power grid's left awfully susceptible. That's kind of why you saw the energy crisis pop up in Europe first in 2021. And I think it's only been exacerbated by many of the geopolitical events that have gone on in 2022. God, I think countries like Germany would try to opt out of the Europe sooner rather than later.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think Italy is there. There are recent prime ministers talking some sense. So that's reassuring. Yeah. She seems to be switched on to what's actually going on with reality around the world, but you make a really good point. Like Europe needs to, you would think that maybe Germany in particular, they would start to really say, hang on a minute, you're selling our bonds to bail out the pigs nations, Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain in this new tool that Christine Lagarde calls the anti-fragmentation tool. You'd have to think Germany wouldn't really go along with that for many more months or years. especially when they're watching an energy crisis manifest itself all around Germany. So I think Europe's the epicenter of this energy crisis. Like in 2021, well before everything kicked off in Ukraine in February, they were already going through an energy crisis. Like we all saw the charts of natural gas and fertilizer up by 500, 600, 700% in 2021. And that's all the result from Europe being aggressively.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just makes no sense. Like you've got oil and gas companies mandated to invest in solar and wind. Solar and wind projects makes no sense. And it's about time people actually started voting with their money and pulling their money out of BlackRock and their pensions managed by BlackRock and saying, look, you need to actually look out for shareholder interest, shareholder value. and not invest in this flawed and failed green agenda.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not at all, not at all. Yeah, it's a very interesting dynamic. It's something I'm watching very closely. Jamie Diamond recently came out and he was bashing on this kind of green agenda and how it's hurting the US. And you're watching pension funds all across the United States pull hundreds of millions of dollars out of Blackrod.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“CBDCs are terrible for commercial banks, and they might have said, hey, Jerome, this is the plan. We don't want this. We want you to actually look after the interests of the United States and the US banking system. We don't want to go along with this green central banking policy and just hand the global reserve currency over to China or Europe, all in the name of CBDC. So it's clear a little bit of...”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the Federal Reserve, and maybe sometime in 2021 they came to the realization, oh, hang on a minute, this whole great reset agenda, this is going to put us out of business.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not happy with Powell's comments and then just days after that squabble at that annual meeting, Jerome Powell raised the interest rates on the reverse repo window by five basis points. And what happened over the next couple of months was $2 trillion flowed into the reverse repo window and the euro just essentially got decimated against the US dollar because people were sending money out of the euro dollar market. They'll send it to the reverse repo window at the Fed to get those extra five basis points and it's essentially it was like a stealth tightening or self QT and this kind of began in June 2021 and also since then we've seen Jerome Powell kind of reaffirm his stance that he's just not interested in this global green central banking agenda that's being pushed out of Europe and Tom kind of makes the case that a lot of these large banks in the United States such as JP Morgan they're the largest shareholders”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“US didn't actually start raising rates until early 2022 and they didn't even start talking about tapering until November 2021. And it's very interesting that Jerome Power and Christine Lagarde, they were having this little conference call at this annual Green Central Banking meeting. I think they call it like the Green Swan Central Banking Conference. And there was this little bit of a back and forth, but Tom in his article points out a very interesting squabble between Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, where Jerome Powell just says, when Jero Powell says, you know what? No, we have a dual mandate in the United States at stable prices and we're not going to go along with this central banking for climate change agenda. We're not going to bail out the rest of the world and print money for the rest of the world in attempts to quote unquote save the planet. And Christine Lagarde was not very impressed. She was infuriated. She was visible.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We'll see if they. Yeah, well, that's the other thing. I don't trust our competent leaders in the central banks to be able to pull off the technical capability in order to actually roll out a CBDC. But I read a really good article from Tom Longo, and he kind of made the case that the United States is now no longer friends with Europe. And they're now kind of acting in their own best interests because Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve just essentially does not want to go along with the CBDC future. So the case that Tom's kind of making is, okay, the reason the Feds raising rates aggressively is because they're trying to drain the offshore euro dollar market. And he kind of pointed out a very interesting coincidence in June 2021. If anyone wanted to actually pull up the chart of the US dollar and the euro, you'll be able to see that June 2021 was when the actual bottom of the US dollar and the euro pair happened. And a lot of people are like, why is that?”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This kind of part of the thesis kind of was inspired by Tom Lawongo. I also recently had him on my podcast this week. But in late 2021, my mental framework was, okay, what we're watching is global central banks are coordinated. They're all going to, you know, keep interest rates low, let inflation run hot, and they're going to inflate away the debt. That was my mental framework in late 2021. And then I was a little bit confused as we went through 2022 because there kind of looked to be some signs that the US was kind of diverging from a lot of these global, we'll call them like global policies like climate change. So I noticed the US Fed wasn't very interested in climate change like Christine Lagarde was. I also noticed obviously the CBDC divergence. There's some factions within the US that are really not keen on CBDCs, whereas Europe is like heading. They want full speed. They went straight towards.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reserve manager of the USDC stablecoin. So I think that's also an interesting thing to keep an eye on for the listeners. But essentially, as countries adopt Bitcoin, I think they're also going to adopt US dollars. And whatever country that adopts Bitcoin, you also see a higher rate of adoption of these US dollar stablecoins because they're easy.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin and the US dollar. What I think is really, really interesting is they're going to also be adopting stable coins like USDC and Teva and stablecoins like this. And what's really, really an interesting dynamic that's been playing out recently is all of these US dollar stablecoins, they've all been backing themselves with US government debt. You obviously got Tether. They've been known for years and years to be very risky as they hold a majority of their reserves in risky commercial paper. But over the past six months, Tether's kind of gone through this phase shift and they've been selling their commercial paper and buying more US government debt. And obviously USDC, the other largest stablecoin, it's a 100% backed by US government debt. And BlackRock just recently ran like a 450 million dollar fundraising round in USDC, which enabled BlackRock to be the primary asset.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“and adopt a bitcoin standard. And I think the countries that adopt the Bitcoin standard, they actually won't be able to use Bitcoin as a unit of account because it's still going to be far too volatile today. Only 1 to 5% of the world has adopted some Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is still very volatile. So the case I'm kind of making with the Bitcoin milkshake is at these countries that adopt the Bitcoin standard, they're not only going to adopt Bitcoin, they're also going to be forced to adopt something to use as a stable pricing mechanism. So I think that's going to be a probably the US dollar. So I kind of see as the US continues to raise interest rates, I believe that the US dollar milkshake theory is going to play out and you're going to be maybe it's 12 months down the line, maybe it's five years down the line, but I think you're going to be left with the majority of the world dollarized and a kind of consequence of that. And so as these countries are”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Bitcoin Mookshake theory, I couldn't help myself had to steal that one from Brent. I hope he forgives me for it. I couldn't think of a better name to add dessert for the thesis, but it essentially rides on the coattails of the dollar milkshake theory. A lot of people believe, let's move forward on the hypothetical assumption that the dollar milkshake theory plays out and we do watch a global sovereign debt crisis and countries around the world have their local fiat currencies hyperinflate and we move into like a global depression or a massive global recession. Everybody's first instinct is, okay, this is bad for Bitcoin. I actually don't think that's the case. I think that as countries around the world have their local currencies hyperinflated and decimated into pieces, I believe that a lot of these countries are going to be forced to dollarize. And I think that's what the large majority of countries will do. But I think some of these countries will actually accept.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Into the equation because the faster they raise interest rates, the faster they're bankrupt in the rest of the world and the bigger a recession they're causing and this just causes an even shorter supply of dollars to be circulating around the world. And these countries and these corporations have enormous US dollar debt. That was a little bit of a long tanser, but I suppose the TLDR of the dollar milkshake theory is we're heading into a sovereign currency crisis. You're going to watch Domino's fall all around the world and Brent just believes the United States is going to be the last currency left standing in a wave of global sovereign debt bubble versy.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As these countries get into issues, we paying back their US dollar debt. They're going to have to resort to devaluing and printing their local currency in order to get their hands on the short supply of US dollars that's circulating around the world to pay back their USD denominated debt. So whenever the DIXI or the US dollar index rises in strength, all of a sudden these countries such as Turkey, Argentina, Peru, these countries that have US dollar debt, their debt becomes more and more expensive to pay the higher the dollar index rises. So it's kind of like a feedback loop and Turkey all of a sudden has to print even more local Turkish lira in order to go into the foreign exchange market and swap that lira to get US dollars to actually pay back their USD debt. So that's the other kind of interesting part of the United States interest rate rises that come”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dollar milkshake theory just essentially says the world runs on US dollars and it has been the global reserve currency for the past nearly 100 years now and essentially as this euro dollar market has proliferated around the world it's not just the United States that has a lot of US dollar denominated debt of the world has US dollar denominated debt Turkish corporations or let's say corporations in Europe everywhere all around the world everybody has US dollar debt all the dollar milkshake thesis kind of put out by Brent says is the next time we have a global slowdown we're going to get into this sovereign currency crisis and Brent believes that the United States is going to be the last currency to run into significant issues or because they hold the global reserve currency and Brent kind of says”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Aggressively as we are. I think the Fed just came out. Was it yesterday and raised by another 75 basis points? And you're watching the United Nations get on their knees and beg that the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates. I was looking at an article recently. There was someone in the finance ministry in Europe begging the US to stop raising interest rates. So I think that's a really interesting dynamic to have a look at. And whenever we're kind of talking about currency wars, we have to kind of mention the dollar milkshake theory put out by Brent. And then obviously you have another dynamic. I can go on all sorts of tangents press and so feel free.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that's what they call it, but the US is essentially still the global reserve currency, still conducts something like 60 to 70 percent global trade. So when you have fears of a global depression or a global recession rising around the world, people run to what's considered to be the risk-off asset today that's still the US dollar. And just the fact that the US is raising interest rates aggressively while the rest of the world is capitulating on raising interest rates, that means capital is fleeing even more aggressively to the US than it otherwise would in times of a recession. I think that's a really interesting dynamic to keep an eye on because the US is bankrupt in its largest friendly countries, countries that we're supposed to be allies with, such as Japan and Europe. Like we're supposed to be on good terms with them, but we are literally bankrupt in their financial system by raising interest rates as a”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I'm a dollar milkshake theory maximalist. Brilliant thesis put out by Brent Johnson. I just think that's what we're watching manifest itself all around the world today, the US dollar is pretty much the only asset that's positive this year and it's decimating currencies of every large sovereign nation around the world. I think the euro is at like a 25 year low measured against the dollar British pound, like a 38-year low measured against the dollar. Japanese yen's also at like a 20 something year low measure against the dollar. And what you're watching is the United States aggressively raise interest rates and that's causing an enormous dollar short squeeze manifest itself all around the world because for better or for worse the”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To that one, if they want to get brought up to speed on the Japan situation, but I think most central banks around the world are going to try to play the Japanese playbook and just introduce yield curve control. But I think once you see other developed nations around the world printing out of the wazoo and implementing YCC like Japan, I think it's just a recipe for currency crisis. And in today's digital age and age of interconnected social media, I think people are going to find the store of value that they desperately need and that they didn't have in the 1930s and the 40s a lot easier because obviously 6102 in the 30s and 40s it was illegal to hold gold. You pretty much, you had to hold the melty fiat currency that lost 50 to 60 to 70 to 80 percent of its value in a decade. Today, the people have an escape valve, as Christine Lagarde calls it. Bitcoin is the escape hatch and the people are going to”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, Japan is the one country out of the 52 countries that hasn't defaulted on their debt yet. So they're the one country since the year 1800 who've hit that 130% and they've just motored their way all the way through. And I think their government debt to GDP is something ridiculous like 260 or 270% today, but they own like 70% of the stock market. I don't know. I can't remember how much of the JGB market that they own, but it's a ridiculous amount. So in most other cases around the world, once you hit that 130% debt to GDP ratio, you're looking at a government default within 15 years. So that obviously varies from country to country. I think Argentina has defaulted eight times in the past 100 years. And then you've got other countries like Japan who are yet to default. But I think they're very close to actually defaulting. You did a really good episode a while back with James Lavish and he brought down the Japan situation in depth. So I'd encourage the listener to go and listen.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cycle inflation just popped up and everybody was on team transitory. And I said, no, no, no, no, no. This is the beginning of a very inflationary decade. Governments not only need inflation, but they want inflation to inflate away the debt. It's their balance sheet on the line. They need this. They want this. And what you're going to see is a decade of inflation.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“15 years within them hitting the 130% they default on that debt within 15 years and the most politically palatable way for a government with a magic money printer to default on their debt is typically through inflating away the debt so they just simply print money devalue the money and pay back their enormous debt with the devalued dollars so that's kind of where I think we are today like the US I recently did an interview with James Lavish this week and he was kind of looking at Japan Germany France all of the G7 countries and he kind of showed that the average debt to GDP ratios of those countries is like 130 so the largest countries in the world at that Rubicon they're at the 130 debt to GDP and I kind of think they have no other option but to inflate away the debt and that's the case I was making in that article in 2021 I think was the article I was talking about the long-term debt”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Capitulated this week. They were supposed to raise rates maybe half a percentage point, and they said we can only raise it 0.25. I can't remember the exact figures, but what we're watching is central banks all around the world capitulate at normalizing monetary policy. And they're having to resort to turning the money printers back on. And I just think once you get to these kind of debt,”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think kind of once you get to this second stage of a long-term debt cycle, it needs ever expanding amounts of credit and bank reserves to be quote unquote printed into the system to keep the thing afloat. I think that's what we're kind of watching manifest itself all around the world today. I think a lot of people hyper focus on the US and saying, look, look, the US is raising rates. There's nothing wrong with a financial system. The US isn't going through any sort of deflationary depression, but they're not looking at the rest of the world. Lebanon's blowing up its currency. Argentina is blowing up its currency and having to resort to printing and even the largest and quote unquote safest central banks and fiat currencies around the world are all capitulating on their hawkish attempts to normalize monetary policy. We saw that last week with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan still doing what the Bank of Japan does best. And obviously I think the Reserve Bank of Australia kind of”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, the technologies are significantly empowering to the individual. And I think we're probably going to get into it a little bit later, but Bitcoin fits right in the middle of that. Bitcoin combined with the internet, I think it's going to do a very similar thing to what the printing press did 500 years ago. It's the same way the printing press separated church and the state. Bitcoin combined with the internet combined with a lot of these other asymmetric technologies we have today in the 21st century. I hope going to separate money from state for the first time in 5,000 years.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Subdue the masses into believing what they were seeing wasn't actually happening. But today with social media, anyone can get on Twitter, which is a relatively uncensored social media platform. And they could see what's pretty close to the truth happening all around the world. Buckle in. Should be very interesting few years.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's exactly how I'm saying it. Like, we live in this, like we've seen hundreds of episodes of hyperinflation or government defaults before in history, but we've never seen like a globally interconnected, unbacked fiat currency collapse before in human history. And I think that's what we're going to see in the 2020s. And I try not to sensationalize things either, but I think it's going to be enormous. I think the 2020s is honestly going to be one of the most consequential decades in human history because I don't know how all of this plays out. And something else is different to the 40s is we're now living in globally interconnected kind of digital world where we can see these bank runs in Lebanon happening. We can see the Canadian truckers getting their bank accounts frozen on the other side of the world. Like in these prior examples of hyperinflation, they were isolated within borders and the propaganda machine was actually able to”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, so the 1930s and 40s was the last time that we kind of lived through the conclusion of an 80 year long-term debt cycle. And we also lived through the conclusion of the 90-year fourth turn in cycle. So obviously the 30s and 40s was a period of chaos. We lived through a 1930s Great Depression. Obviously the tail end of World War I and World War II in the 40s. And then obviously you saw the rise of Mussolini and Hitler and all sorts of dictators in there as well when these kind of wealth inequality or wealth concentrations probably a better word. When wealth concentrations are at these extremes you normally see a lot of political upheaval and turmoil. But I'm kind of more interested in the economic comparisons to the 30s and 40s. Lynn Alden's written some phenomenal papers on the 80 year long-term debt cycle and a lot of my framework's been influenced by her work. And she just essentially says in these 80 year long-term debt.”
2022-11-16 · We Study Billionaires · BTC104: The US FED & Treasury Need Bitcoin w/ Luke Mikic (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT