YouSaid · the spoken record

Marc Cohodes

lines on the record: 82
first: 2023-03-20
most recent: 2023-03-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And then Shea, and I love my life, but boy, it's hard, but I enjoy and I am up for the challenge. And any And if anyone wants to bet against me, motivates me even more. And I don't quit. What it is”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Give you the right answer You're doing it to make money or become rich, then you best think of something else If you do it because you enjoy exposing people and have more righteous in you than a desire to make a lot of money, then it's for you. Because it is at times beyond miserable. And most people do not have the medal or constitution to deal with it. And I have zero problem dealing with adversity. I've had adversity my entire life and people bet against me. They all say I can't, couldn't, whatever. And that shit motivates me. So I'm a highly motivated individual when When the time needs to be had So, unless Know that is your constitution. You should probably do something else because it's a bitch from time to time. It's a bitch. I'm not a substance guy. I don't drink much. I drink rum punch.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So there's a lot more to it than meets the eye, and you have to have a mindset. And I always say don't try it at home, and it's difficult as hell. And you become a target and you have to have confidence in yourself because you don't make friends talking bad about companies. But I kind of enjoy it. I'm somewhat decent”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think doing this for a very long time, I think I know who's really smart and who's dumb. Know when people call me about various things, who's smart and who's dominant? And one thing's intrigued me, you have to understand that today may not be the day that you have to have some patience. And I always say you wait till the Jaguar's out of the tree. I'm not interested in climbing the tree, rustling the jaguar out. Never been interested in shorting Tesla because I think musk is a protected guy and all the fundamental guys who've short been short Tesla have been right, but they haven't made any money. A lot have been carried out.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know, I said to myself, this is worth a shot. I mean, I'm short this stock at 180 and I'm shorting more at, I think, 92, 93, wherever it is today because I think it's a, you know, $15 to $30 stock. And I think their business is bad, their balance sheet's bad, the leverage is bad. CFO just left. And I thank the guy who runs it at best is average. So I don't think it's going to kill me in any way, shape, or form. It's sure not a meme stock. They're not growing. The business is declining. And customers like Target, Walmart, Bed Bath, and Beyond's out of business. Don't need all the bullshit they're selling. So I can sleep well in something like that. But that name was in my head and it's been in my head for years and all of a sudden something came up and I said I need to dust this off and think about it. I don't screen”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I have a I think my memory is very good, and I have a lot of names and concepts in my head. And depending on the environment that we're in. Luckily stuff hits the front of my brain and say, hmm, this is kind of interesting right now. Like I've known about this Helen of Troy for a long time. And I watched it go from 2 to 200. And it was a roll up, a roll ups. And it was a roll up and they did well because rates were low and they were able to buy garbage. And the stock went up and they bought more and more garbage and they grew and grew and grew. And the growth guys bought it and you had a big stock. But when rates went up and they couldn't buy anything anymore and the bullshit they bought started going downhill”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It'll be a great book. It'll be a tell all of everything that went on in some of these stories. So I'll have plenty of time to look back of what I've done, what I've accomplished, the great people I've met, companies I've helped put out. Met some incredible people. But make no mistake, as you would say, it is a fucking.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Belief and confidence in my ability. And I think people can say that I'm cocky or arrogant or whatever you want to say, but I've done it. I've won the World Series. I've won the MVP. I think I'm the best that's ever done it by a factor of 15. I mean, everyone, you know, talks about Channels, which is fine. And he's a great guy. And he's my palate. I've known him forever. His last big hit was 20-some odd years ago with Enron. And I've dropped three into the dirt in the last four months. And that's not even getting into my medics or home capital group or Concordia or Wirecard or things like that. But I've done this. I enjoy it. I like doing it. And I'm still doing it at a high level. But there's going to be a day where I can, you know, where I'll be, say, I've had enough and be done and not be as sharp as I am now. And then I'll write a book and I'll.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One, this shit goes against you. But I knew what I knew. I had tremendous conviction in my research. I had tremendous conviction in my facts. And I thought that the government and others would move on this thing quickly. How quickly, how it worked out? I mean, Worked out. It worked out well, but it was just a fucking bitch. And at the same time, they squeeze you in Wayfair and Carvana. And I got guys DMing me on Twitter saying, do you think guys are after you? They're running all your shorts, they're taking down their longs. I said, I don't give a fuck if they're after me. I've put more people into the ground who've been after me than anyone on the planet. And if you want to bet against me, go right ahead. I don't care. I'll bury you because I think I'm right. Don't know. I mean I'm an unusual character, and I have tremendous”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's very hard, and you have to be wired and born with, as I always say, a genetic defect because it's the closest thing to impossible that there is, which makes it challenging, which I enjoy a challenge, which is why I'm really good at it. How do you know? I mean, you get your brains kicked in, and I had to cover some Silvergate on the way up because the broker was basically saying Antian more money or we'll close you out. And I'm just saying, fuck, if they take this piece of shit to 22, they could take it to 52, as you would say. And, you know, again, this is why I'm down on those clowns at zero hedge. I mean, they wrote a piece in saying this could be the next GME and this could be the next Volkswagen. I mean, basically inciting a riot and trying to manipulate the shares. So you're right. It's miserable.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just like to see individuals have an actual shot at doing okay rather than just getting screwed by the citadels, CNBCs and these hucksters of the world, these VC guys, to sort of even the playing field. So maybe I spend more time doing that than investing because believe it or not, folks, it's not always about money for me. I got plenty of money. It's more process, principle, and trying to move the needle and make things right. And I think I'm pleased. Hardest on myself But I'm pleased with this Silvergate signature thing. I really am. I'm thrilled that these pieces of shit money laundering vehicles have been destroyed.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I work really, really, really hard to push that back. And Robin Hood and IB and Schwab and Fidelity, they finally relented on Thursday after an SEC commissioner said, this isn't okay. So, I mean, I know I helped a lot of people because I have all the emails. I mean, one college kid said he bought puts for 10 cents 10 cents and they're going to be worth between $3,000 and $5,000 a piece. Now, that's life-changing money for that kid. It's going to pay for a school and then some. And basically fund him for a very long time. And I have a lot of stories like that. So when everyone wants to say shorts or bad or short sellers are bad, I busted my ass to help these people out. So their trade in this thing, they end up getting the money and earning the money they deserve rather than Citadel and Susquehanna fucking them out of their trade. So I was doing that too.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A lot of people were in signature, and a lot of people bought puts in signature. And my Twitter and DMs were getting lit up when the government halted signature what they were going to do Signature puts, especially the ones that expired Friday because these brokerage firms wanted to screw Joe Sixpack. And I spent an incredible amount of time last week. You know, I engaged my lawyers who joined the cause. And Forbes did two stories, the Financial Times did one story to basically force these brokers to allow these individuals to exercise the options, even though the stocks halted, because signature really is worth zero. But these brokerage firms weren't going to let people exercise any of their puts.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, I was like way down. I was down a lot. Now, last year I had a great year, so I was given some of it that, but I was down a lot. So into this Silvergate signature debacle, I was having like a shittier. And it's not like I felt like I was stupid or it's not like I let go of the rope. But things can happen fast. So again, I'm 63. I don't have to do this. I do this to, A, I think I'm still really, really, really good at it. B, I try to help people out. Patience, patience works. Now I'm having an outstanding year. So I went from being probably one of the worst performers to being on top of the heap. But again, this is what happens in the market. And I also want to say that”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And, you know, I think Helen of Troy is a great short. I think Anna Vixen overstock are great longs. And I think they're great. But what happens between now and then, I don't know. I mean, I don't know what Powell's going to do with rates. World's a dangerous place. Is today. Let's say it's like March, end of March. Gotta say, you kn A pal that guy's swimmer. What people don't understand is when you're short stocks, I mean, in early February, when signature was high and they were squeezing me on Silvergate and squeezing me on Carbana, squeezing me on wayfare”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My life's always a battle, but I don't mind it. I mean, I'm a lover and not a fighter. I have a wonderful life. I'm surrounded by people I care about greatly. So all that's good. I mean, essentially, they got too long that I just think are fantastic and a Vixen Overstock. So I got two longs that I really like. I mean, I like camping world, but it's not nearly as dynamic as those two. I'm sure there's Helen of Troy, which is a rolled up piece of shit that's overly leveraged, that's out of growth with a horrible balance sheet, H-E-L-E. I think that thing is in huge trouble. But it's not a fraud like these other things. It's just a mismanaged bunch of bumblers. And the great thing about my life is I don't have to play. I can be very selective in my pitches. And I hit the pitch or swing at the pitch that I want to swing at.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“God, one can hope. I mean, one can hope these banks get responsible and it becomes a closet tightening. Which would be great news. I mean, if the banks got smacked upside the head and say we shouldn't lend like this anymore, let's be responsible again. I mean, that becomes a tightening. That's like another 50 to 100 basis points for the Fed if banks got responsible. I mean, one can hope. Do I have confidence that that'll be the case Don't know, I'll sort of believe it when I see it”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I don't know. I mean, it sort of depends what Powell and Yellen and all these clowns want to do or how they want to see it. I mean, it's kind of a fork in the road. They make things better by keep cranking rates because the economy is not that bad. It's not that great. It's not that bad. But this inflation needs to get fixed. And people still have money and there's plenty of liquidity. But this inflation is a real problem. And everyone can say the price of this is down and the price of that's down. Fine. But no one to the consumer has really cut prices. No one has really passed it on because business is okay and the end user wants to make margin. So the make margin by grinding the man. And it's expensive to go to the movies. It's expensive to go to the ball game. It's expensive to go out to eat. It's expensive to even eat pizza.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's probably a dozen, a three dozen publicly traded outfits that are sideways. Now, what happens and what happens to them? Do they get by? Does the Fed make things easier? Does everyone look the other way? Does everyone say enough guys have failed? I don't know. I mean, I'm not. Not involved in any other things right now And I'm not really spending or interested in spending any time on it. I'm going to spend some time going after some of these VC guys who want to act like clowns. I'll work on them.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How many other zombies do you see when you're looking out at the mountains of the banking world? We've had Silicon Valley Bank, that's fallen, signature bank fallen, Silvergate still trading, but the SEN is no more.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Doing 100, you know, and an 80, and you get your ticket. And, you know, you can't ask for and need regulation when things get murky. And then when things get good, say we don't want any regulation. It's just everything is sideways. And it's sideways because when people don't do their job or have no regulations, it's faster, smoother, easier, quicker, and more profitable. Okay, those are all the good things. But the bad things are it puts everyone, including the system and the taxpayer puts everyone in danger. So, you know, there are trade offs, but they don't, you know, some people ask me what I think matter. But, you know, by and large, these guys are sort of runaway trains.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And again, until we get to the root cause of it, and part of it is you got to trim away the zombies so you can see what we're looking at. I mean, I'm looking out over trees and the Gallatin River and snow capped mountains. If I had a whole line of trees in front of me, I couldn't see Jack shit. So until you get rid of the zombies, figure out what went on, realize that regulation is not a bad thing. I mean, it's kind of like saying, I don't like drunk drivers. Well, that makes a lot of sense. And I think people should crack down on drunk driving. Okay, that makes sense. So we should have more highway patrol. Okay, good. But then you get pissed off when they pull you over for doing 100 miles an hour, right? And say, how come you're not getting drunk drivers? And then they say, hey, Mark, you were.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AML KYC? And the answer is well, it takes too long. Well, too bad. It's there for a reason. Or it's bad for business. Or we can't grow as fast as we think. Or they'll take their business elsewhere. All these are bad reasons, bad motive. So I think the motives were bad. I think the get rich quick on top of it, you know, played a part not doing stress tests. played apart having Bernie Frank lobby for you played apart. It's all a factor which leads to a bad ending.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's probably a factor. It's probably not the factor. But the more important thing I think I note is that Was an ease of regulation, right? Something was done to make regulation easier. So everyone wanted when rates were low to make regulation easier. Now when rates are higher and things have gone clu at a couple spots, everyone wants more regulation or there wasn't enough regulation or how did this go on? Well, it goes on plain and simple because people don't do their jobs. The FDIC didn't do their job. The guy's examining Silvergate didn't do their job. The guy's examining signature didn't do their job. The people who matched duration wrong at a lot of these banks don't do their job. If people just simply did their damn job and said, this isn't right, you know, why are we not doing?”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He did a CNBC thing with all sorts of Jesus Christ statues behind him. So I think people who hide behind religion also have a problem. And Alan Lane, I mean, he has 21 grandkids. So I think maybe his grandkids, you know, one every two weeks can go visit him where he's going to end up. But it's all these subtle things. And you'd say, Barney Frank, you know, he's on the board of signature, has to be okay. These board guys don't do shit for work. He gets paid to try to keep people looking the other way. And it's just unfortunate. It's just unfortunate. And he was stupid enough to give interviews to the major publications and explain that the bank was really in good shape. The bank was illiquid. The bank was insolvent. The bank was banks are criminal operation that's under investigation per Bloomberg by the DOJ.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It tends to be that something's wrong. I mean, I have a wig indicator that whoever CEOs were a wig, you know, and I'm shorted. I think my hit rate on that is like 95% to the good. And Alan Lane, the CEO. Of Silvergate, who I think is going to end up in prison.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And he should give his two and a half million dollars back. And he's a complete imbecile. And it's, again, this is the system we now live in that people think that a protector like him makes everything good. I mean, mimetics, the CEO who I helped get thrown into prison, Parker Petite, went to prison as an 81-year-old guy. They had a former SEC commissioner on his board. And he used to say, how would I be running a criminal operation if I have an SEC commissioner on the board? Well, the simple answer is the SEC commissioner is almost as big a crook as you are, Pete. And he let all this bullshit go on. So just because someone has a name or someone is connected doesn't mean that everything's okay.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What could he say to them? They're not laundering money for criminals. I showed that they did. And he said that the bank was totally fine. That's a complete lie. The bank was beyond insolvent when they seized the thing. That came out last night in the workaround. So the guy, you know, like some of these former disgraced politicians is just an absolute disgrace. And he should be embarrassed and he should apologize.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It just shows what a complete Imbecile, illogical, lazy, greedy Cretan he is. He's quoted somewhere Sanya went on the board to make money. I think Signature paid him two and a half million dollars in his tenure. And I knew he was on the board that time when I got involved in the thing. And I basically couldn't care because A, he's 82, so he's probably 30 years past his best use by date. We have a Democratic president. We have a Democratic Senate. Warren's Democratic. She has sense. And I knew that.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A simple answer is nothing, no one has an edge there, no one knows what the hell's going to go on. And just because it's down, it can go down even more. And same thing with Silvergate. Everyone thought it was cheap at nine until it hit five. Now it's a buck 70 on its way to 31 cents. I mean, I think I said to someone, the stock's going to end up between $4 and $14, which is still too high. We'll see what happens.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Short squeeze isn't a good one. That's not a good reason to buy a stock or a tip from a friend is not a good reason to buy a stock or inside information. You know, there's a lot of reasons not to buy a stock. But if you think things through and you have a process, you have a shock because the professionals out there, by and large, I wouldn't trust them to feed my dog. And these banks and what's going on in the banks is a perfect example. We're not in a healthy environment when First Republic trades more volatile than a biotech stock. And I have people emailing me or DMing me or, you know, serious people. What would you do with First Republic?”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dumbass can't count to three if she was given one and two. And, you know, she talks about all these pie in the sky things. There's no economic basis behind any of it. So the real problem I have is people for whatever sad reason have lost their ability or desire to actually think for themselves or to say this just makes no sense or to call a spade a spade. It's fine to speculate blindly, you know, if you want and if you have money to lose. But I am a CFA, but I don't use that CFA designate because I don't want anyone to think I'm showboat or this, that, and the other. But one of the key concepts is you have to have reasonable basis. And if you don't have reasonable basis for your investment, you probably shouldn't be in it.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The problem is everyone, you know, a lot of people want to get rich quick. And whether it was the meme stocks where people saw things going up or this concept of squeezing shorts, I mean, if you want to get involved in a heavyly shorted stock, there's a 95% chance the thing is absolutely going to collapse because the guy shorting a due far more work than you do. And it's this glorification of being able to gamble and just pushing a couple buttons. And people were glorified by GME or AMC or what have you. And they think it's that simple. But people don't know what they're in. They see Kathy wood on the cartoon network, aka CNBC, and they show her performance way up and everyone says, let me give her money. I mean,”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I said in the New York Times, I said the market's not a game. Market's not a casino. It's a serious thing for serious people. And if you don't know what you're doing, you can get killed. And that holds true today. It's actually timeless. I had it framed and it's on my wall in California.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, this is all part of the problem, it's all part of process and people's process is really fucked up. I don't want to miss out or my neighbor made money here or FOMO or meme stocks or calling me boomer, you know, whatever. I mean, whatever floats your boat. But there's a lot of reasons we're in this mess. And the simple way to get out of a mess is there's less players involved. Less banks, less brokerage firms, not cheap money. I mean, if we go back to cheap money again, it's just going to Reincarnate this cycle of greed and the downshot going forward will be even worse. So how's that for an answer to your question?”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Same thing if you're shorted, and no one's ever been able to give me any form of explanation of why I should be in crypto that makes any form of sense. Now, a couple of people have made some money in it, and for them, God bless you. But a lot of individuals have gotten absolutely destroyed. And if you go back and say, why were you in it? Why did you get destroyed? No one could give you an answer with a straight face.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's why they're in trouble. If you haven't lost your way as a bank, to me, you should do well and thrive. But whether it's holding zero capital against TLTs or being leveraged 40 to 1 or loaning money to huge negative cash flow operations like wineries and hope you can sell it or go public or roll it up or whatever bullshit there is. This is why there's trouble. People have gotten away from sound business concepts that have any form of process and they've gotten into all this bullshit. Same goes with crypto. Everyone always ask me what I think of crypto. I've never been long a piece of crypto. I've never been short a piece of crypto. And the simple reason is I don't understand it. And if I don't understand something, I'm not going to be involved. And I always say that if you can't explain something you're long to a 10th grader and a paragraph or less, you probably shouldn't belong it.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A bank doing what banks should. So it's really gone on to your question about holding TLTs with no capital. It's all this leveraged shortcut way around things to get away from what a traditional bank does. No one's in traditional banking anymore. It's all this hybrid stuff, what Silicon Valley did, what Silvergate did with the SEN network, what Signature did. It's all this hybrid stuff to get a bigger return so the stock could go up. So the CEO and officers of the bank could get rich. Everyone is focused on how wealthy they can get rather than the process which can make you wealthy. So I'm a process ahead of concept. And if your process is sound, you'll do fine. But no one else seems interested. Interested in process anymore. The banks have all lost their way.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they'd have a cost of doing business, and then they'd make a return. But banks would be somewhat akin to utilities. It would be a very safe business. Would be predictable return business, and you'd lock in Ever since, really, the government repealed Glass-Steagall to allow banks to do all this cuclophrand and Ollie happy horseshit. The risk profile of all these banks has increased and increased dramatically And banks were no longer happy just being a traditional bank. They wanted to do things to get more return because if you have more return, you have a higher stock. If you have a higher stock, the CEO of the bank makes more money. And it becomes this greed-filled. Business model rather than”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A really good question, and it's sort of, you know, I was talking to someone yesterday There's some guys out there on Twitter and in the world who are really, really, really good bank Alice. I mean, it's Porter Collins is really good. He's really smart. He was one of his characters in the big short was after him. And Eisen's really good. And Sky Josh Rosner is really good. I know Rosner and Porter on Twitter. I don't think Eisman is. One of the problems is back when I was a youngster, banks used to. Get deposits and pay people interest on their deposits. And then they would make car loans, mortgages, credit cards. Business loans. To buy a car, let's say it's nine percent or eight percent. And they'd make a spread. And the spread would be called a nim, net interest margin.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. And I think if a bank officer makes a mistake, if the bank makes a mistake, that really is the mistake of those people and that bank, not the regulators who are regulating them. However, do you think it's true that the post-2008 legislation was good in making it expensive for banks to hold assets that have a lot of credit risk? However, they did not do enough to penalize banks for holding interest rate risk sensitive. I think there was a time during 2020 where banks could hold treasuries on their balance sheet and hold zero capital against it, which now with long-duration treasuries and having sold off and agency mortgage securities having sold off as well. And I think there's a low percentage, not zero, but a low percentage they have to hold capital against that. Do you think that there maybe needs to be some revisiting of whether you can hold treasuries? Oh, yeah, I have TLT.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You try to once, it's a serious thing, it's government backed, and you failed. So, again, if I make mistakes, no one's bailing me out and no one's bailing you out. So I just think they should have a contained zombie. Protocol on how to fix these things.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But again, a long way around to your question is 2008 is different than the Russian crisis, which hurt banks than this. And I don't know if it's interest, it's not really interest rates, and it's not really liquidity. There's plenty of liquidity out there. They just have their book mismatched. I mean, they have short-term deposits and they put short-term deposits at very low interest rates and shitty longer-term investments. And it's just stupid. You have to match up. And none of these guys matched up. And if you don't match up, you have these kind of problems. And if these guys lose the bank and they push for his republic into somebody and management gets fired, I mean, my caveat would be if I was king is if you run or manage a bank that fails or has to have a shotgun marriage, you shouldn't be allowed to be a bank officer ever again.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who I should have been out of business 10, 5, 15, 20 years ago, it's been a mess. Same thing with Deutsche Bank, same thing with HSBC. These are all awful banks that have no sense in risk management. And it would be great to see the government close down some of these zombies, but I just don't know if that's gonna happen.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And people like to knock Jamie Diamond, but I think the guy's a motherfucker. I mean, he's a serious ass man and he's a really good banker. And I think he knows risk. I mean, he's broken the law many times and he's been fined many times, but the guy knows risk. And I think there is something to be said for the too big to fail banks, which is sort of a page out of Canada. Lose sleep over a lot of things, but I sure don't lose sleep over what bank I'm using because I think you play with fire if you're more than $250,000 in a regional or super regional. So I think everyone's going to get through the crisis. I think the Fed is going to make the same mistake. They did. They'll start easing or making money available so they don't have a crisis. And we save zombie Credit Suisse with UBS.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, I have loose cash. I have some in Wells Fargo, but I have a bunch in treasuries, and those are as safe as you think the U.S. government is safe. So, I mean, banks should just be used for cash management in terms of deposits. And I think people were parking large sums of money in First Republic, and they were looking at First Republic as a sort of a safe piggy bank. I have my mortgage there. I have my credit cards there. It's good to go. But all it is is a regional.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, they've clearly fucked it up. I mean, their book is completely inside out, and they've loaned money and do business with extraordinarily high net worth people. She doesn't have that much net worth because she's a horrible investor. They're just way, way, way off size. And if you're off sides in this environment and people start getting nervous, they could have a real problem. And everyone looked, you know, she said that their service was really good and they're a pleasure to deal with. So people looked more at the service and customer service rather than looking at the soundness of the bank. And I don't think they kept up with people with what interest rate should be. You know, I've said on a couple pods or speaking out. These banks have significantly lower deposit rates than U.S. treasuries.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your point's really a good one. I mean, their credit losses now are going to go through the roof because I think all these guys who they funded are now in a perilous state because no bank in their right mind would loan these guys money anymore. But in 2008, it was a credit thing. The banks were offsides. No one thought housing could ever go down. People underwrote really shitty mortgages. It was considered a given that you could own a house. And everyone had a horrifically bad risk management. We all know what happened there. This kind of thing now is it's been so easy to have large sums of money, let's say at a First Republic. My ex wife, she has some money there. She called me up and she says, The bank's safe. I said it's safe, right? I mean, I wouldn't have more than 250 grand there.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Buying anything is very expensive and living's expensive. So, you know, it is what it is. It's a long way around to the Silicon Valley Bank thing, but the higher rates have broken a couple things that should have been broken and they should keep raising rates till they knock out inflation. Because if they don't knock out inflation, it's going to be a true mess. Silicon Valley Bank is a once in a career kind of thing. Again, I could shoot myself for missing this thing. It was there, but I was too focused on really Silvergate and FTX and Signature at the end of the day. But people shouldn't panic with banks. I mean, the government's going to make your money good with these deposits, but you should at least understand if you're going to have money at a bank or invest money in a bank, especially a regional, what business they're in.”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rates are higher because inflation's out of control and the cost of living is crazy. And it has nothing to do with a CPI or PPI or whatever made up numbers the government wants to give you. But living is very expensive. You can't hire people. You can't find people who want to work”
2023-03-20 · Forward Guidance · Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT