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Marek Belka

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29
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2018-10-15
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2018-10-15
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  1. It has actually become extremely international. We talk about key cities like Warsaw, Roslav, Krakow, Daisk, but whoever I bring to Poland being clients or relatives or friends, they actually were very impressed with how vibrant different parts of Poland are and have become. And look, I continue to go back to the point that we have this nature of actually getting things done and always trying to not give up and go around it and do things. And you see it and actually we've delivered a number of very successful businesses in the wave of the last 10, 15 years. We've actually, you know, right now we have a multi-billion dollar market cap or valuation and they compete globally. I can tell you a very frequently kind of come and talk to our UK clients or German clients or other clients who actually have a vested interest in kind of following some of those businesses because they actually have a lot of respect for them. So that again as a Polish national makes me very proud that we can go and spread the good word.

    2018-10-15 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. You got it, so I think that was helpful working in Salt Lake with Dave Lang, thinking about the office growth, some of the best practices there was extremely helpful in having that kind of in my skill set, working with Tom Dowling, who's now in Dallas and bringing some of the stuff that I've worked with him on to Poland. I think it just made sense. It was really a great opportunity in starting from the ground up and building an office was a great challenge.

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  3. Silicon Valley or Financial Center of the World, because you say so, there's got to be bits and pieces that come together. And I think as we discussed today, I think Poland has a lot of that going for it. And some of those initiatives that have been put forward by the government and policymakers more broadly, whether it's focused about the electric cars, about the innovation, about the startups, are very valid and actually have a big chance of succeeding.

    2018-10-15 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. Is the dream of everything government across the world to be a financial center and have effectively a strong capital generation and interest in the country, have a society which is effectively happy and proud of who they are? And I think if you look up 10, 15 years from now, I think the current government has laid out the vision of where Poland is going to be exactly in that time. And that's predicated on one, increasing and mobilizing all that savings that are sitting in the system to make them work harder and harder. So A, provide the capital. Second, effectively ensure that there's a fairer redistribution of income that is in the system. Effectively, it's a fairer society overall. And there's a very big bet on the innovation and technology. There is a question that keeps coming up in discussions at a very high level. Why in Europe we don't really have a Silicon Valley of Europe? I'm not saying necessarily Poland has all the ingredients, bits and pieces that we should be. You just don't become

    2018-10-15 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Yeah, we're starting to see people come back. People had been in Singapore coming back to Poland, people coming from London that had worked for Goleman, for example, that have come back to Poland. I think it's all based upon the fundamental principle of having quality work. People don't want to come back and settle necessarily. They want to be able to make a global impact, do interesting work, and get paid well for it. I think if we can kind of continue with that value proposition, we're going to see more people coming back over time. I met with some folks in New York. We did an event at the Polish American Chamber of Commerce just talking about repatriation, what that pool of talent is. So we're seeing it slowly. I think you need to build that over time and seed it in at the right tenure. To Artress's point about the value chain, and that's a people thing, it's a capability thing across the board. And I think the more we can pivot from business process outsourcing, shared service into being a global player, that entails having people from other parts of the world, in Poland partnering.

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  6. And then the question is what do you do to attract? I think that the only thing you can do is construct the atmosphere around Poland that makes everybody proud, right? Because exactly as we said earlier, the young generation, but also the generation that immigrated, let's say, 15 years ago, 14 years ago, if they are to come back, they want to be proud of actually being Poland and going back and living the lives that they lived in Germany, UK, France, and now coming back to Poland because there's this next wave of opportunity, if you wish.

    2018-10-15 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. But I think one aspect is exactly what can you do to have enough oil in the system, if you wish. So if I'm an aspiring startup and I need some VC money, how deep is that pool? Can I find it internally or do I actually need to go to get some support from Brussels EU funds or do I need to go and look for that money in Silon Valley or somewhere else? So can I have it here equally if I'm develop an advanced business? Can somebody help me go and explore Asia or US and how do I effectively fund it? So I think that's capital. I think the second is more about the content and what can they do exactly that people want to come to Poland. People want effectively spend time, the young generation, whether it's the fallout from Brexit, whatever will happen or any other way, the wave of immigration you saw 15 years ago on the back of 2004 joining EU people have moved away now some of them are coming back

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  8. I didn't look at the numbers, but probably you have a market capitalization of everything that's listed there, around $300 billion, which is kind of nowhere. And we all kind of know the trends where the stock exchanges are going and trends are going. But I think there are initiatives that you can put in place, big fiscal incentives for actually the broader population to invest, put some kind of pension fund savings, special accounts, put some whatever reit structures or some other

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  9. I would say a number of things if you look at the trend, we clearly moving in the right direction. If I look at the state of play right now, I think number one, we are recognizing and government is recognizing we can't do it all by ourselves. So we need investments. I think clearly there are some savings in the broader system, but what we need is well-functioning capital markets to effectively continue stimulating the growth across the value chain. So I'm talking more about the businesses that operate. And rather than them coming to London and listening or UNX, you actually would like to being a proud or Polish originated company that competes globally. Why wouldn't Warsaw be an attractive capital market or stock exchange?

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  10. Archer touched on it as well in that the value chain, the proposition of doing interesting work is a key cornerstone of building a longer-term career. So doing interesting work, making a global impact, not doing outsourced business processing type things, global connectivity, being able to work with partners in London, in Bangalore, across the globe, just that global touch point, I think, is very important as well. And then flexibility, being able to work hard, but then also have a life around that. And I think that Warsaw affords you that. You're in the middle of Europe, you can travel around the continent having a job that pays well that you kind of learn from it and get that global experience, but then also having some time to enjoy that I think is very important for the younger generation and the older folks as well.

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  11. Brent obviously is going from 30 to 300 to 600. It's a young workforce. You're hiring mostly, not entirely, but a lot of young people. What are you seeing in terms of their career ambitions and how are you going to keep that young workforce as engaged over time?

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  12. And I think overall the question is exactly come up with a value add product or service. Such that also people who produce that can also benefit and see that stay somehow in the country and rerate the country over medium to long term.

    2018-10-15 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. Platform in Poland. So equally, Google Campus and a number of other initiatives. So, the biggest question, I think, for investors who come in, they say like, okay, Poland is actually competing not only because of the cost base and a relatively cheaper rent per square meter, you can get an office, I don't know, 15 square meters or retail space Europe per square meters, which is relatively attractive. You have access to people to the human capital and also much attractive cost as well. But I think it all needs to come in a sense where you're actually getting access to this intellectual capital as well. So if you look at the pharmaceutical businesses, generics, biotechnology, you look at the aerospace, you look at the startups. We keep saying that our biggest draw into Poland was also how can we effectively benefit the global platform of Goldman Sachs with all the technology capabilities that are there. You have a few thousand startups that are every year growing, the numbers going up. Some of those startups compete successfully on the global scale.

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  14. This government has been very consistent in trying to avoid what they refer to as the mid-income trap. So of course when you start in 1989 GDP per capita crept up. Overall people felt better about it. But at some point you say 25 or almost very close in a year's time it would be 30 years since 1989. It's like, okay, so what's next? You need to give people a bit more than just assembling cars, being the outsourced platform that sits there and then the income is somehow channeled out and you're just being part of the value chain but not really seeing benefits of that. The biggest focus of the government but also of the other companies that actually came in to invest. As an example, Amazon has invested close to a billion dollars right now and has a forerunning distribution centers and we'll have the fifth one up and running if it's not up and running yet very soon and it's been a meaningful part of the whole European ecosystem for them without actually having a store or

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  15. Lloyd said a thousand when he was in Warsaw in April. So I think that's kind of the starting point right now. And just like in Salt Lake that grew from 300 to 3,000 over time in Bengaluru, I think success breeds attraction of other divisions, other talent, other capabilities. So let's see what happens.

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  16. Yeah, so when I came in 2015, we were 30 primarily in tech. And as we sit this morning, it's roughly 670, so a decent amount of growth over the last three years. The first year was constrained because of space. We've moved into a building called the Warsaw Spire in the summer of 2016, which has really allowed us to grow to the number that we're at right now.

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  17. I would say for the most part, yeah, the government's been great in partnering around incentives. It's not a huge benefit from our perspective. If you look at that, it really is the talent and the proximity to London that's driven us to Warsaw as it relates to in-flight issues if we're having a challenge in immigration, let's say for example, being able to approach the government and find the right people and have a conversation, they've been very acceptable and helpful in that respect. So I think it's just helped us to seed the team if we look at our primary hiring obviously is hiring local people, hiring Polish people, but then also seeding that with expats. So having people come from different regions to grow the culture of the firm, to grow the capabilities. So just having those two married together in the support that we're getting in that space is helping us to grow faster than we otherwise would.

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  18. Combination of factors for sure, but definitely the talent first and foremost. If you look at the point that Artur just made about the inquisitiveness, the capability, the educational background, it really is the basis on which we were able to grow. So looking at our engineering division on the technology side, being able to solve problems and doing things across the globe at a maturity level that we would expect anywhere else that we operate, strats from a securities division perspective, being involved in deliverables such as space and very cutting edge stuff, those are the guys on the front line and helping to drive some of that stuff globally so it's very interesting to see the level of maturity and the capability that we've been able to find on the ground in Warsaw if you look at other divisions, operations and risk, the evolution of the office in three years, seeing that maturity and then comparing that to what I saw in Salt Lake working there were well in progress with respect to being able to make a global impact and it's just been very positive for us. It's been a great experience.

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  19. You moved to Poland three years ago, 2015. Goldman was beginning to build an operation there. We've had an operation on the ground since 2011, but it really took off in the last three years. Was it the talent that drew us there or a combination of factors?

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  20. In the technology space in Warsaw, we've been very fortunate in finding strong people. So if you look at the engineering division, if you look at what we're doing in Stratz, three years on the Grand and Warsaw and making an impact globally. So strong development skills, strong technical skills, so early days and already kind of deeply embedded in the teams that are helping to drive very cutting edge things at the firm. So we're very impressed. I think if you look at the way that we've structured things, also you get the adjacency with other divisions. So operations sitting next.

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  21. What decisions made at the kind of EU closer club or smaller club, how do they affect day-to-day run of those operations? But I think if you go to Poland, there's a lot of support for EU. There's equally a lot of support for the local currency. I think it would be a challenge effectively how to reconcile both being a very vivid supporter of EU initiatives and overall as belonging to something bigger than Poland, but then at the same time at some point parting with your own currency.

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  22. Traditionally, I think Polish businesses or businesses that actively have a meaningful Polish presence have evolved naturally into a broader CE platform. So you would see a successful business that started in Poland and exported into Czech Republic, Balkans, more broadly, very often Russia, Kazakhstan. So that was your dominant platform. Now, some of those then successfully manage into the Western Europe and for a number of companies have been successfully operating a number of Western jurisdictions and there will be others that successfully are kind of global businesses, if you wish. Now there is a question mark is if EU for whatever reasons gets more integrated and suddenly there's this concern about okay can we at some point anticipate a two-speed Europe and you talk about okay the Euro club and certain decisions being made there is there the banking union what does it mean for number of banks which are still very fragmented in Poland need to

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  23. And of course, we've seen the wave of you can call it populism, you can call it whatever you want, but in general, people pushing back across EU and Europe because their quality of life doesn't grow as much as they would like to. They don't see really all those benefits of growth feeding into their day-to-day lives. And I think that in Polish case to the changing government in 2015, and I think that people are just kind of watching right now how various policies that this government has implemented will affect potentially the outlook in the medium and long term.

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  24. Now people then ask okay so what do I come with as a product or an offering to Poland or do I come with the technology and products that work very well in Western Europe and Poland is just doing a lot of catching up relatively quickly and I think that's been part of the thesis because consumer on average will spend more on mobile, will spend more on shopping you need to bring the technologies they need to move exactly as the overall GDP per capita grows as well they spend a bit more their habits are turning more towards Western and US habits. So I think a number of successful investments that people have made into Poland have been around exactly how can I anticipate the evolution of a consumer in Poland and then effectively capitalize on that. I think that the second part where investors and clients in general focus about is of course the predictability and transparency

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  25. First of all, they all are looking for growth, no matter which investor you talk to or which clients you talk you want to grow your top line because you want to grow their business such that you have at the end of the day cash flows to support your stakeholders, your shareholders and pay dividends and support the broader ecosystem. So if you look at the statistics post-2008, we did not have a single year when the economy contracted. So within the whole EU, it's the only economy that actually has consistently grown most recently at the rates of 4% plus in the last few years. So on average, it's between 3% and 4% growth, which is a very good number and consistent number compared to, for example, Western Europe. Let's say you take the box on the population, you have a big access to the market, which is 38 million people. You have relatively stable macro because of the currency, so that place, and you have growth coming your way. So I think if you put it in a mix, it's a very attractive macro.

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  26. Actually, that there's been a number of successful transactions since joining in 2004. There was a big flow of structural funds coming into Poland, which further stimulated the economy, and we've been successful with also the government between 2004 and now that effectively supported and in a wise way was able to channel those to various infrastructure projects and overall reforming the whole country.

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  27. So, if we put it in context, Poland is the eighth largest economy in the EU. It has 38 million inhabitants, so clearly in the map of investment destination and overall has been a very important element of the continent. Historically, we joined the EU in 2004. The Iron Curtain, if you wish, fell down 1989. I think 1989, if I can remember 25 years, we multiplied the GDP per capita seven times and that's what then with the joining EU effectively attracted all the investment into Poland because the play that most people have was it's a big market particularly in the CE the next biggest market is Romania 20 million inhabitants and you have Czech Republic and then it all goes down into smaller numbers so people so always Poland as the gateway to the broader central eastern european play and I think it's proven

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  28. So Poland doesn't, as I said, doesn't get as much attention sometimes as the economies of Germany and France, but it's been growing at a healthy clip for quite a while now. What role does it play within the larger continental European economy?

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  29. Poland continues to be very positively affected by the developments in the broader euro area. As you will know, our economy heavily relies on exports, Germany being the biggest export market, followed by UK, Czech Republic, France. Clearly the growth that we've seen over the last 12, 18, 24 months have positively contributed to the development. I think if you look at the annualized rates of growth based on latest quarters, you would get the numbers which are inviable around 5%. Overall, I think if you look at the soundness of the economy, you see current account deficit in Czech. You have lowest unemployment rates, stable rates, relatively stable currency, not really being affected meaningfully by the EM sell-off we saw earlier in the year. So all in all, it's a very positive environment for an investor, be it strategic portfolio or otherwise.

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