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Mark Moss

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2022-01-26
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2022-01-26
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  1. But it's brought us kind of exactly what we need when you look at it from that perspective. And I think when you also look at like, again, problems coming to solutions, if you look at the big problems, again, decentralization, but more specifically unlimited money printing, which I think sits at the base of that. And so we need something that has a fixed supply cap. We used to have a rule of law that was easy to understand. Everybody could understand what that rule of law is so we could set our life. I could set my life based on those laws. You could set your life based on those laws. But today, we're ruled by men who arbitrarily change the rules on us all the time, right? And then we also have censorship as a problem. And not just censorship.

    2022-01-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC062: Monetary Cycles and History w/ Mark Moss (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Destruction. That's part of this collectivism or this cronyism that we kind of have in the system today. And so yeah, centralization, also because of the money printer, right? And so I think we both agree the money printer kind of sits at the base of pretty much every problem that we have in society today. It was Misa has talked about in the crack up boom, right? When you have an economic expansion that's fed by credit and monetary expansion, it starts to lead to distortions in the market that leads to shortages and labor shortages. So he explained that. And then finally, the people wake up and realize that inflation is persistent. And then we have the crack up boom. But he explained how this money creation starts to have these distortions, which we're seeing all over the place. But back to the centralization. So if the problem is centralization, then we need something that's decentralized. And so I think it's pretty cool when you look at it from that lens that one's moving on a 250-year timeframe and one's on a 50-year timeframe.

    2022-01-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC062: Monetary Cycles and History w/ Mark Moss (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Well, and as the government has gotten so big and the money printer has enabled them to not only get so big but also kind of allow these businesses to kind of have all this unlimited capital, this is what happens. The beast just kind of keeps getting bigger. And so through the regulations, the cronyism, if you will, right, between the corporations and the government working together, they build these moats that don't allow for this competition. Last week, Alex Fetsky and I got together and did a book sprint and we took you're hearing it first. We haven't officially released it yet, but we took the communist manifesto and we rewrote it and we're calling it the uncommunist manifesto. And we kept the same structure, four chapters, kept the same about word count 10,000 words, but wrote kind of exactly what you're talking about. And we talked about how these businesses being unable to fail, they're not allowed to fall down. And so we don't have this dynamic creative destruction, right? And so it makes it harder for people to climb up and people aren't falling down to your point creative.

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  4. The course of humanity steal, you're an engineer, so you know how steel changes humanity, right? We could build skyscrapers, we could build bridges and things like that. So that's what I'm talking about in technological revolution. Then we had about 50 years later, we had the age of oil and automobiles, assembly lines. All of humanity people walked and rode horses. And now we could drive, right? Then 1971, we had the age of the microprocessor, which then, of course, brought personal computers, telecommunications, the internet, Zoom. What we're doing right now, 1971 plus 50 years puts us right here today. And I believe we're on the verge of another technological revolution. And what is that giving us? What's giving us exactly what we need? So we need, the problem is centralization. We have a technological revolution giving us decentralization, which I think is pretty amazing.

    2022-01-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC062: Monetary Cycles and History w/ Mark Moss (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Is something that changes the course of humanity? Well, not like the transistor. So the transistor is kind of a piece of that, but really it's the industrial revolution in the late 1700s, which brought people from the farms and cottage industry into cities and into factories. So it changed the way humanity worked, changed the whole course of humanity. About 50 years later, we had the invention of steam engines and railways. So for all of humanity, we had horsepower and manpower. And now we had steam engines and we had rails and we could move stuff across continents. So it changed the course of the world. Then we had electricity steel. And electricity and steel. So that changed the course of humanity. When electricity came out, it was like, what is that? It's like a digital candle. But what do we need that for? Candles have been light for 5,000 years. And look, I can like this candle's portable and I can move it around and I don't need all these wires. Like candles are way better for light. But of course, electricity change.

    2022-01-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC062: Monetary Cycles and History w/ Mark Moss (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. You told me about some of the questions we'll get to later and some of those are some solutions that we don't need. But if you look at the problems that we do have, and so we're at peak centralization. So that's a problem. What kind of problems? Well, one, we have the Federal Reserve or the central banks. They've centralized the money printing, the money creation, and they're printing unlimited amounts of it. And not just that, but just the government. I mean, they're trying to control every aspect of our lives at this point. Of course, in China with the social credit course system, but what we have going on across the world with the passport systems and on and on and on. And so peak centralization appears to be a problem that the world is pushing back against right now. And so on a 50-year cycle, we have these technological revolutions that happen. And I'm not talking about just like new technologies. A new technology would be like the iPhone or be like, Uber, like that's pretty cool. New technologies, they extend a cycle. A technological revolution.

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  7. New technology, the printing press, the Bible, which decentralized the information, right? And no matter how much the church tried to put a stranglehold on that, if you spoke out against the Bible, that was heresy and they would kill you. And they did and they killed millions of people, but they couldn't stop the information. And today we're seeing the same thing, right? The information is out there. And even though they're trying to assassinate your character and shut you down online, they're not able to stop this information. The tide is turning. So I think that's one of the big things. But what's interesting is that solutions are supposed to come to problems. And I say supposed to because today we got a bunch of money being printed and it's going around trying to solve problems that don't need to be solved.

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  8. Real quick before we move on to lens number two, a couple things that I think are of interest in this as well is that if we look at this pendulum swing, it also swings in a couple of different ways. So about every 80 years in those 80 year cycles, we swing from centralization to decentralization or what's called like a we or me cycle. But also what we see swinging back and forth is a swing from creative cycles to more analytical cycles. And so 250 years ago, we started in the Industrial Revolution. 250 years before that, we started in the Renaissance age. And so we can also see how these things change as well, which is really interesting. Right now, I believe, and you've probably heard other people talking about this, like the Renaissance age is starting again, something that most people have probably read, the sovereign individual. They talk about these mega political factors, these mega political shifts that happen. We can see what really broke the grip of the church was that

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  9. And that's because it's reactionary. Almost again, like a financial chart. If you look at it, the further it deviates to one side, the further it's probably going to snap back to the other. And so we go so far to one way, it comes back the other way. And so while a lot of people think that this is a black swan, that people are protesting and pushing back, well, about every 80 years they do and every 250 years, we have the big one. And so I think when you look at it from that lens, all of a sudden, it's like, hmm, maybe it wasn't the fact that this pandemic, this virus happened because we've had lots of virus epidemics for the last hundred years or multiple hundred years, but it was really the fact that for the last 80 years or really for the last 250 years, we've been swinging from decentralized all the way to centralization. And it's time to push back. And I think anybody who's halfway paying attention sees this, we can see that we have the world economic forum and the world health organization and the world trade. and the world mediaological association and the un and the I.

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  10. But back to kind of this mathematical formula like the triple bottom. So three times 84 equals 252. And every 250 years we go into a revolution cycle So 250 years ago was the American Revolution, the French Revolution. 250 years before that was the Protestant Reformation. And what those really signify to me when I dig in and study that is in the American Revolution, we pushed back on the centralization of the monarchy, to be ruled by one king, and we pushed back and we set up a decentralized government, a republic. We rejected centralization, we moved to decentralization. 250 years before that, the church and the state ruled with an iron fist. There was one way to God. They had the Bible. No one else could read it. The printing press disrupted that. People got the information. They said, wait a minute. We don't need to only listen to what you said. We can find our own path. And they went and sought this decentralized path. And so about every 250 years, we can see that. And it's like this pendulum that swings back and forth. And it goes all the way to centralization. And then it peaks out, and then it starts pushing back.

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  11. At cycles happening in like triple cycles as well. So I'll explain what I mean by that. So even though progress is moving exponentially, things are obviously a lot different today than they were 100 years ago, they're also repeating within that progress at the same time. And so about every 84 years, and I say about every 84, there's like just like the seasons on a calendar, while you may have spring starts on a certain day, doesn't mean the weather changes exactly at that time. And so about every 84 years, we have what's called a populist uprising or a regime change cycle. And so 84 years ago was the end of World War II and Hitler and Mussolini. We had FDR created the New Deal Turned America into a socialist nation. And about 84 years before that, we had Karl Marx wrote the Communist Manifesto, which led to the European Spring and the largest revolution of European history. And of course, here we are again seeing the same thing populist uprising all over the place.

    2022-01-26 · We Study Billionaires · BTC062: Monetary Cycles and History w/ Mark Moss (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. Revolution on a 80 year cycle, and all three are converging right now at the exact same time. And so I can walk you through this a little bit. But when you start to see it from three different angles and all converging, it starts to be very clear. And so kind of on the political side, I mean, as we said, right, we see people are at each other's throat. Who could have seen this? We have millions of people marching in the streets all around the world. And that's a black swan, right? I mean, they're protesting against mandates. They're protesting against governments or whatever. It's like before the pandemic broke out, there was 10 countries with over 1 million people each in the streets protesting. That was before the pandemic. So this isn't because of the pandemic. This was already starting before the pandemic. And so also kind of like financial cycles, we have like, if you're looking at like technical analysis, you have mathematical formulas. And so you might have like a triple bottom. And so we can also look

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  13. For multiple indicators. And then preferably, if you can look for indicators across different segments and across different areas that start lineup, it becomes even more powerful. So I think we can easily start kind of in this financial, I mean, there's three different ones that I've looked at. So one is like this political social cultural angle, so populist uprisings, right? Revolutions. There's that. And then there's the financial revolution, the financial reset that we're in right now, which I think being kind of on an investing podcast and Bitcoin podcast, we kind of focus on that a lot, right? Like interest rates are at zero. They're negative. Can they raise them? We have a debt sky high. Can they keep printing more debt? All those things, what are they going to do? The Feds suck between a rock and hard place. And so that needs to be reset. And then we're sitting on the edge, a beginning of another technological revolution. So we have like a political revolution that goes on like a 250 year cycle, a technological revolution on a 50-year cycle and a financial.

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  14. I think, as you said, right? There's a lot of things going on in the world today. We have all this turmoil everywhere. We have protests all over the world. People are at each other's throat. Never been more divided, all these different things. And leaders that seem incompetent and you name it, right? A lot of people are like wondering what the heck happened. How did we get here? Some people think that we'll just go back to normal. Some people think there is no new normal. And a lot of people think this was like a black swan event, this virus that came out of nowhere. Who could have predicted that a virus would come and cause all this problem? That's the black swan event. And I would say, well, not really. The exact trigger of the virus potentially, but the fact that the whole world is kind of up in arms over this isn't really. And so the way I look at it is if you start zooming out, you start seeing things in more context. So like if you're looking at any financial markets, you're looking for indicators. And there's never one financial indicator that's conclusive.

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  15. Thanks, Preston. I am so excited to be here as well. I don't know, maybe the biggest podcast in the investing space. Go on. And always enjoy talking to you.

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