YouSaid · the spoken record

Marko Papic

lines on the record: 113
first: 2023-11-29
most recent: 2023-11-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“By 1905, and this is where I will tell you this is where I'll call you and say, let's do another podcast because the world has changed. So if we have a very clear alliance structure that once a conflict is triggered, the alliance structure is triggered and there's war, then we have a problem. And that existed in Europe because Russia, France, and the United Kingdom were in a military alliance that would have been triggered if they were, if any one of them was attacked by Germany or Austria-Hungary. And so the world had ceased to be truly multipolar. It became very bipolar. One side, France, and the United Kingdom. On the other side, you had Austria-Hungary and you had Germany and Turkey to some extent as well.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wasn't No, well, I'm from Serbia, so I would have been cheering on the murder of the crown prince. Just kidding. So the war started. You know, we killed him, basically, my people. No, look, what I would have said is that the world ceased to be multipolar. Why?”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, just to make the people who you imagine saying, oh, but Marco, you never imagine that this is going to be systemic and lead to something big. I'll throw them a bone and say, what would, you know, Marco Popich in 1912 before World War I or 1939 before World War II? What would Marco Popic be saying? This is a nothing burger. It wasn't a not”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Europe and US on one side, China helping out Russia in some ways. But even there, you had countries like India. You know, India is nominally or supposedly an ally of the US against China, but it's out there bathing itself in Russian oil. So this is the complexity of a multipolar world where it just gets messy and it doesn't mean that every conflict leads to World War III. And yes, then your point about nuclear weapons, I think, is more important. I just, you know, there is this other one that people don't think about. But nuclear weapons certainly make it very, very costly to elevate these conflicts to a superpower level.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“China is a huge consumer of oil. Specifically from the Middle East. So China has an interest in this not blowing out of proportions. They have an interest in Iran and Saudi Arabia working together, continuing to ship oil, both of them to China, not making this into a regional conflict. So in a way, China and the United States have both an interest in containing this conflict, not having it blow up. Again, that's not what you would have seen during the Cold War where it was very rare for the Soviet Union and the U.S. to cooperate and damp intentions anywhere. In a multipolar world, conflicts come and go. They don't necessarily graph themselves onto a neat distribution of power that then becomes a tripwire for superpower conflict. And so we've seen that in this particular case. In Russia, Ukraine, it was a little bit more like a bipolar conflict because you saw.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know either, and I'll tell you why because China's on America's side when it comes to Middle East. Wait, what? Record skips. What are you talking about?”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is the Cold War, everything, everything was just neatly grafted, and therefore everything became a potential tripwire to nuclear Holocaust. So in a multipolar world, it's messy. You know, it's messy and alliances shift. And this is why being a geopolitical tourist is very dangerous. I see this on Twitter all the time. People making these connections, you know, with thread and like, it looks like conspiracy. Look, Turkey can be on one side in one conflict, on another side, in another conflict. Whose side is China on? Israel or Hamas?”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, no. So, yes, I think nuclear weapons is an obvious one. But there's another one. There's an interesting one, Jack. You know what it is? See, in a bipolar world, in a bipolar world like the Cold War, you've got two countries. Every conflict immediately gets grafted onto this bipolar reality, almost instantaneously. Every conflict. You know, if the Russians didn't have a position on some civil war somewhere, once the Americans picked the side, the Russians picked the other one.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like how you ask that follow question. I set it up for you because it's like it's hanging there. Like, well, yeah. Why not? Like, we might want to know. Like, wait, they'll stop there. Should I sleep? I took the bait.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Commodities like wheat and other commodities fell in May, so it really took most commodities three months, oil about four months. So the half-life of that geopolitical conflict was about four to six months, depending on the asset. In Israel, Hamas's case, it was measured in days. And I think that's very interesting that the market is becoming aware of the geopolitical context it exists in. This is a multipolar world. We know from political science theory that when the world is multipolar, frequency of geopolitical conflict goes up. But it doesn't mean that these end up in a World War III scenario. In fact, there's many reasons why they can't.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Comfortable with this level, this frequency of geopolitical conflict because it's kind of learning to adjust to it. And of course, again, I'm not a believer in deficient market hypothesis. I don't think the market is right all the time. But I think we need to stop and listen to the market, not just shake our fist and say, like, oh, the market's wrong. I want to be long oil because the world's going to end. And so I think the market has become aware that the frequency of geopolitical conflict will be higher. And so the half-life of the risk premium is getting shorter and shorter. And in the case of Israel Hamas, it never really even happened. I mean, except for a couple of days. In the case of Ukraine, Russia, oil prices stayed up until June.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, it is. And I can tell somebody listening to this podcast at this point is like, well, this guy clearly doesn't think anything matters ever. What I would say is like, well, hold on a second. The big story of our time is that we're in a multipolar world where no one country or two countries are really in charge. And so the frequency of these geopolitical conflicts is going to be higher than what most of us are used to. So, you know, buckle up. This is the world we live in today. What I think is interesting is that And the geopolitical tourists and kind of like, you know, like The narrative writers out there haven't figured this out, so they're freaking out every time there's a conflict. The market, however, seems to be quite”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, just a little bit more. And that's enough, just a little bit more. And we saw that in 2022. That clearly kept gold bid when it shouldn't have. Gold should have collapsed in 2022 when the Fed embarked on a very aggressive rate hiking cycle and inflation went on.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to be very clear when you say people moving away from the dollar, you are not talking about people buying oil in Chinese yuan or Bitcoin. You're talking about foreign central banks instead of owning almost exclusively or mostly US treasury dollar-denominated assets, US sovereign government bonds, they're owning a little bit more gold as well. And so they're buying it.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that's a bigger reason why gold has gone up than geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Because again, if there was actual risk of wider conflict, then I'm telling you oil should go up. So the gold move must be completely unrelated to geopolitical risk in the Middle East. I think the bigger geopolitical story to gold is the move away from the dollar. But again, not everyone, but just, you know. basically reserve managers at central banks fine and then the real rates move is over because the fed is clearly backing off”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they're saying, like, look, we want some physical assets. That's the number one issue. The number two issue is now, I think, that the real rate move is over.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, listen, you know, I've been very bullish gold really since January of this year, and that's because in 2022 something weird happened. Something very strange happened all of last year. Real rates went through the roof. Gold did not collapse. You know, this chart was very strange. So at the beginning of 2023, you know, I had two options. Either I the chart should close with gold collapsing and I should be bearish gold. Or there's a new paradigm where gold is not responding to real rates. And I think there is a new paradigm. So gold is well bid because of a move away from the dollar by currency reserve managers at central banks. Clearly, there's a central bank buying going on when it comes to gold. Move away from the dollar. Many countries saw what happened during the Ukraine conflict where Russian reserves were basically”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think gold has caught a bid. Can you speak to the value of gold or gold tends to rally when there is a sense of a geopolitical risk when there is a war? And do you think that is, I mean, to me, it's so silly that what is the world repricing the odds that the world's going to go back to a gold standard? And everyone else is bidding up golds because they know everyone else is going to bid up gold. And there's no real fundamental reason”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I mean, like, what I would say is that dad sends us a very important message about where we are in the macroeconomic cycle. I think that tells us a wealth of information about where the U.S. economy is going. I think it's a real alarm bell when oil prices are basically heading down even though there is this conflict. And again, I'm the most sanguine person probably in the world in terms of this not spreading. But even I said like, hey, look, man, there's some probability of me being wrong. I'm just a guy writing research on the beach in Santa Monica”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But if they're not going to fight amongst each other, then it's difficult to see how this escalates to the oil markets. And that's why oil prices have actually collapsed since conflict started, which is very counterintuitive. And by the way, it surprised me. Day one, when this started, I was probably the only geopolitical expert in the world that was very sanguine about it and said, no, it's not going to matter. But even I thought there would be some geopolitical risk premium in all prices, at least like 5-10%. That hasn't happened. And I think that.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market implications for you to care about this as an investor in the United States, this needs to escalate beyond Israel. It needs to escalate beyond the Levant. The Levant is a great place to go to a visit to historical sites. Levant does not matter for macroeconomics. You know, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel do not matter for the global economy. Sorry to be so glib, but that's a fact. And so what you need as an investor for this to really matter to you, it needs to go out of that region, the Levant, and it needs to go to the Persian Gulf. And if Saudi Arabia and Iran have this new equilibrium that they formed after their, you know, diplomatic relationship was restored in 2022, supposedly with China's help, by the way, as we all learned.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Into a major geopolitical conflict. And on top of all of that, what's really interesting is that Saudi Arabia and Iran have solved a lot of differences. So while Iranian proxies like the Houthis or Hezbollah are reacting to Israel, nobody has taken shots at Saudi Arabia, which Houthis have done in the past, in 2019, 2021. There were attacks in Saudi facilities repeatedly over the course of this decade that hasn't happened. And that suggests that there's a new equilibrium forming between the Arab and the Muslim states with each other. You know, there was a big conference in Riyadh, president of Iran, Ray actually came to Riyadh. There was a joint statement. That's very unusual. It suggests that this may escalate in terms of Israel escalating, but the other countries are not going to escalate against each other. So that gets us to the”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And Iran didn't really retaliate. It bombed two US bases, but it did so in a way where pretty much they kind of phoned the Americans and said, hey, we're going to bomb this base at 5 p.m., please move your troops out. And then they stopped. That was the only thing they did. And General Suleimani was very popular in Iran. There were rumors that he would actually run for president in the subsequent election. So this was a very, it's like General Petraeus, you know, and the Iranians didn't really do anything to defend their, you know, like hero, like a really prominent member of the establishment in Iran. So why would they do anything now to retaliate against what Israel is doing? I don't think they will because they understand that the US is a huge constraint on their operations and U.S. will defend Israeli's interests if Iran gets involved. That's been pretty much clearly stated to Iran. So I don't see how this really escalates.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You may think it is in sort of like a big picture. But the real issue here is that Iran, which is the only country that could maybe, you know, take it upon itself to defend its allies, Hezbollah and Lebanon or its troops in Syria is extremely afraid of US retaliation. And I mean, this is clear. I'll give you an example of this. In 2020,”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No one will come to Lebanon's or serious aid. And so 2006, Israel ended up withdrawing. That ended up causing a government collapse. In fact, that war in a way brought Benjamin Netanyahu to power because it was seen as a really waste of time to Israel to have done that. And by the way, they did not eradicate Hezbollah. Hezbollah grew stronger afterwards, which might be a lesson for their current operations against Hamas. The other issue is that in Syria, they've been operating. Israel has been operating in Syria pretty much without anyone stopping them. Certainly since 2011 and even before that, so Israeli aircraft regularly bombed targets in Syria, including Iranian targets, especially weapon shipments. And recently Israeli fighter jets bombed Aleppo, which is on the border of Turkey. So we're talking about a region where invading a country isn't worth what, you know.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“an impossible goal of eradicating Hamas. Good luck with that. And so I can see them being pushed into doing something more to kind of justify their perseverance. And so, yes, I can see the conflict expanding into southern Lebanon and southern Syria. I don't see that really mattering to anyone in the region. And I don't see anyone retaliating against that.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It becoming a regional war, sure, I think the easiest scenario that I can see in becoming a regional war is if Israel decides to invade parts of Syria and Lebanon to create standoff distance against the various militant groups that do have the ability to launch rockets into Israel. I think that there will be a limited strategic benefit of that. But sure, I can see it happen. Certainly Israel did that in 2006 and certainly it was 30 kilometers away from Damascus in 1973. Speaking of the Yom Kippur War. So I can see them doing that. I can also see Israel doing that for political reasons, because the current government of Benjamin Netanyahu failed massively in securing Israel. I think it's going to fail in defeating Hamas. That's like...”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so that's very important because it means that the conflict can remain very, very violent, very egregious, you know, lots of people can die on both sides, but it doesn't necessarily have an easy way that it graft itself onto the regional issues. I mean, Hezbollah, the group that, of course, it's Shia, it's not Sunni, as most Palestinians are, but is based in Lebanon, has not really reacted in solidarity with Hamas. They're shooting some rockets, but their leader came out and basically said like the attack was all Palestinian. He wasn't saying it that way, but it was almost like, no, really. I had nothing to do with this. Iran has basically claimed they've had nothing to do with it either. The US government has said that they believe them. And so this remains a conflict that I believe will be contained to Israel. Now, what I can see in terms of, you know, there's a lot of concern about.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I would argue that the radicalization of Hamas and other groups in Palestine are in part a result because there has been no support outside for their cause, particularly among the Arab states that surround Israel that you would assume would have an interest in sort of supporting Palestinians in some way. That's never happened.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so yeah, look, I mean, in my experience, Israel Palestinian issues, conflicts have never had a market impact. We'll get to that later, as you say. But also geopolitically, they've never spread beyond the Levant, beyond Israel. This is a security issue for Israel. Hamas conducted the most egregious terrorist attack ever on Israeli soil. So that's the difference. The difference here is a quantitative difference. But qualitatively, this conflict has been going on for a long time. And it's never really spread beyond Israel and Palestine, certainly not in the last 25 years. So why is that? And the answer is that the Arab states that surround Israel, I mean, and I'm saying this from their behavior, I'm not saying this from what they say, but from their behavior, we can infer that most of them are not really interested in Palestinian issues at all.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, before this conflict started, did you know where the Netsk is? You know what I mean? Like, does Ukraine need to control every square inch of its territory for the West to be safe and for the West's bulwark against Russia to work? And the answer is no. And so that's where there's a disconnect. Ukraine obviously naturally wants to reconquer every square inch of its territory, but as far as most people in the West are concerned, Ukraine has already won by pushing the Russians out of Kiev and by remaining independent and remaining most importantly a buffer.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The thesis that we're just gonna keep giving Ukraine blank checks. And look, here's the reason for that. It's not because evil Trump is in cahoots with Putin. That's not the reason at all. It's very simple, actually. Ukraine is strategic to the West. Like Ukrainian independence and it being outside a Russian sphere of influence, that is a cause worthy of fight. I would argue most Westerners believe that. I think most median voters across the different democracies in the West believe that Ukraine should remain independent. But should Ukraine control Donetsk”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, most investors have a very acrimonious position towards company management. They're trying to sell us something on quarterly calls. You know, Zelensky. Yeah, Zhelensky and other policymakers are doing the same, not because they're crooks, not because they're evil, but like, God bless Zhelensky, obviously he has to say that he is going to reconquer every inch of Ukrainian territory. I mean, that has to be his stated objective. Otherwise, he is in violation of his constitutional role. But material constraints are far more relevant. And material constraints to Ukraine are vast. It's not just the tools at their disposal. So has the West given them enough offensive platforms, like as an example? But it's also actually the biggest constraint to the Ukrainian leadership is the median voter in the West, which I can empirically prove to you is moving away from the blank checks.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this is something, and this is something that's really interesting to me, Jack. Like, who cares what a CEO of a company says?”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Ukrainians stopping an offensive, the cause of that will be them running out of sufficient weaponry and armor. So in other words, the US and NATO not giving them enough because you look at Zelensky a lot more than I do, but when I hear Ukrainian leaders, Zelensky talk, he seems pretty intent on taking the rest of Ukraine back.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hell of a lot more than 300. And that just has not been supplied to them. Ukraine cannot continue these offensive operations for a very long time. And therefore, I think that we are where we are. This is where we're going to be stuck. And eventually, Ukrainian officials are themselves going to have to slow down the pace of offensive operations. Now, you might say, well, why don't the Russians just mobilize and do then, you know, try to take Kiev again? Well, because they have proven extremely competent in doing so. And maybe in five years they'll feel confident that they can now do it again. But for the time being, I don't think that there's any evidence that Russia has the ability or the political support. For further offensive operations, they're going to basically declare this a victory.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think so. I mean, it doesn't have to be an official ceasefire, but look, I mean, hitting your head against the wallt. You know, like you lose consciousness. And that's what Ukraine has been doing. It's hitting its head against the wall. It does not have the offensive military platforms necessary to defeat the Russians. It just does not. 150 tanks are a joke. They're a joke. A tank lives four days in a battlefield. Why? Because they break down. They don't use highways. Tanks go through like the countryside. And so they break down quite a bit. So giving Ukraine some fifth generation fighter jets or advanced tanks is just not enough. They need maintenance. They need supply chains. They need the ability to fix them in the battlefield. They need domestic production.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Got it. And so you don't think there will be a peace deal, but you do think there will be some sort of ceasefire because the battle lines aren't changing, but in World War I, the battle lines weren't changing, but it was, you know, incredibly violent, tons of casualties. So you think that not only will the lines of control freeze, but the fighting will at some point cease and there will be a effective ceasefire.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“West could have embarked Russian oil and say, we're not going to get a drop of oil out of Russia. And that certainly was not how that oil embargo was structured. So there's an element here where both sides are not willing to expand this to a wider conflict.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being part of Russia, no one's going to accept that. But again, you know, who cares? Like too bad for the West and Ukraine. They are under control of Russia. Similarly, Russia is not going to get official recognition of them because too bad what they think. The West is just not going to do it. So that's how this conflict ends. And I would argue it's the market has basically called this already. And not that I believe market is an efficient mechanism or that it's all knowing it's just that the market kind of sniffed out already last year that this isn't going anywhere. It's certainly not going to World War III and it's certainly not going into some sort of a Russian attack against wider NATO territories or Europe in general. Also, I think to your point that part of my coal and oil was this realization that the West wasn't really that committed to it. You know, that's also very important.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This conflict will not end with a solution. It won't end with the good guys or the bad guys winning. It will just dissipate and ossify. And that's what's happened. That's the reality that's been going on for six months. I mean, just our government, our foreign policy elites don't want to accept it. But we haven't had any movement in territory for basically 12 months. And so what that means is you can have a conflict that just freezes the way the South Korea and North Korea are now two separate countries, but it never actually had a peace deal that concluded that conflict. Similarly to the situation between Serbia and Kosovo, where Serbia doesn't recognize Kosovo's independence and neither do many countries, including Western countries like Spain, which is a member of the EU. And so similarly in this case, I'm not at all saying that Ukraine will ever be okay with these oblasts, including Crimea.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fair. That's a good point. That's fair. Russia doesn't really want to do that, though. Support for the war in Russia is waning in terms that not that Russia's Russian the polling we have which you know may not be that good but the polling we have is showing that Russians continue to believe that the war was correct but they don't want to incur any more pain so there's no more support for further mobilization in Russia for the conflict and the other issue is so you mentioned a peace conference and you mentioned that Diablovs would go to Russia that is not what I'm saying at all And this is something that I've said since February 22nd. There will never be a peace deal.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay. And so you say the conflict is almost over. So you think that the current battle lines will be everything that's owned by Russia, controlled by Russia now will go to Russia and there will be a peace deal. And then also what gives you confidence that the conflict will end? Because in many conflicts, like six months into World War I, England says, well, we're all out of, we're all out of money. We're all out of resources. If people want to go to war, like the resources can be found. You know what I mean? Everything will be sacrificed for war.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It fought off the invasion by the Russians, and Ukraine remains outside of the Russian sphere of influence. And I think those are all positives from a Western perspective. The fact that some of their territories are going to remain controlled by Russia, you know, it is what it is. Life goes on. Now, from the market perspective, I think that this has been clear to the market, even though it hasn't been clear to the economists or the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times or foreign affairs, certainly, but market has figured this out. I would argue to answer your question of geopolitical offline, there has not been any geopolitical offer to generate out of this conflict since September of 2022, when my team and I went along the Euro, tactically, and also long European industrials, which worked really well in that fourth quarter of 2022, where that last remaining geopolitical risk premium drained out of the markets. because of Russia-Ukraine war. Market news.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, even ahead of their election, they basically equivocated on their support for a country that's right on the border and that clearly matters. Look, Ukraine may not strategically matter for a lot of countries, but it matters for Poland. And even they equivocated because of domestic politics, which tells you that we're at the limit. We're at the end of Western support, I think, for Ukrainian offensive operations against Russia. And I think that the writing is on the wall, whether Kiev accepts it or not. And I think that that's fine. The conflict will be frozen. At the end of the day, well, that may sound pessimistic or maybe even pro-Russian to some people in the West. The truth is Kiev is independent.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Perhaps West's tippet a spear when it comes to Russia ahead of their election this year the incumbent government abandoned a deal they had to kind of import Ukrainian agricultural products. I mean this is Poland we're talking about this isn't some country on the periphery this is the country on the front line of West's defense against Russia and even”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Any more offensive operations, at least not of any large scale. I also don't think they're competent enough to do so. And I think Ukraine is exhausted as well. So this conflict is at an end of really like being a catalyst for a further geopolitical developments, if you will. Also, I think it's pretty clear that the West has lost patience, like the public has lost patience. I mean, the US, you have an election where you could have an outcome, where you have a government that doesn't want to support Ukraine. We already had an election in the Netherlands. Poland.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“launch another substantive offensive maybe ever, but certainly this decade. And so this conflict has effectively been frozen for 12 months. Now, it's politically incorrect to say that because then you're being alarmist or you're being a pessimist and Ukraine must win, that's literally what every policymaker in the West kind of ends every speech with, which is great. Like Marco must get abs. You know, I can keep saying it all I want, but it's not going to happen unless, you know, I do something about it. So it's a really important issue because it really, if you step back and you look at the borders between Russia and Ukrainian troops, it's very, very clear that they have been ossified for 12 months. They haven't moved at all. And so by any definition, this is a frozen conflict. It's already there. I think Russia's comfortable with that. And I don't think they're going to try to pursue.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As an investor, you want to cover the spread. So in case of the war in Ukraine, I think it's been over for the last 12 months. Obviously, there's the tragedy of human loss and Ukrainian offensive has gone on and many Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in this offensive, which has failed. And I think you could have seen it from a mile away that it was going to fail. It was rushed, I think Kiev has engaged in the offensive against Russian, held parts of Ukraine. I think they rushed it and I felt that they felt pressured to show success to the West. Like, hey, your investment is not wasted. Look, look what we've done. Well, they haven't done anything. It's been paltry. And I think it's been an egregious mistake that's caused Ukraine a lot of equipment and a lot of men, a lot of material. That's going to cost them for the next, you know, five years because it's going to be very difficult.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's correct. And we as investors have to understand that our job isn't really to get geopolitics right. And by the way, there's an analogy to sports. Like if you're betting on an NFL game, you don't really care who wins or loses. You just care whether you're covering the spread. That's how I try to explain to investors. You're not in this game to try to figure out who's going to win or cheerlead one side or another or hope that one side wins or not. You can do that as a human being.”
2023-11-29 · Forward Guidance · Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT