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Masatsugu Asakawa

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2021-12-10
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2021-12-10
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  1. A voluntary carbon credit can be, it's basically what anyone is willing to pay for because it's voluntary. And we have certain voluntary carbon credits that are being purchased for $2, others for $200. And that creates a massive inefficiency when you're trying to effectively monetize the value of carbon because there is no forward curve. And so, this is one particular area where I think that regulation can really help accelerate the investment that's needed into decarbonization. And I also think that there's actually a role for the ADB and other regional multilaterals to help around the standardization to develop a more efficient market around carbon.

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  2. My perspective, I'm extremely optimistic around the convergence of governments, corporates, and consumers on decarbonization and our ability to advance towards the Paris Align goals for net zero. I think where the opportunity lies is how can we accelerate the effort? Because I think in any metric, it's going to take us longer and it's going to take a lot more investment than we think to get there. To accelerate this, I think it's going to require support in regulation. I say this for the following reason. Ahmed was talking about efficiency, like market efficiencies. And one of the markets that's incredibly inefficient is the market of carbon.

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  3. Science is very different from venture for software, right? I mean, are there models from the biotech industry, big pharma, which ends up being this consumer of technical risk and underwrites it in a way by providing an exit? I think this is a really interesting space that I feel like I know I'm asking some of the questions, but I suspect the answers are to be found in the halls of Goldman Sachs, much more so than at the ADB.

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  4. That's actually, in my view, a market structure issue. It's not actually a question of whether or not this investment is worth it and whether or not it's associated with a risk return profile that the ultimate owners of capital are willing to bear. And I think there's ways for us to innovate around these. So for example, let's take that middle spectrum, the banks and the capital markets. They view this as tech risk. Well, actually, there's a group of actors who have very technology and diligence capability, right? So I think one really worthy area of inquiry is what are the market structure innovations that will bridge the gaps? In this case, for example, it might be that you create a first loss facility backed by deep technical knowledge that actually helps mobilize debt financing. And I think there's other parts of this ecosystem which also represent market structure mismatches. If we look at the venture piece, venture for hard

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  5. How do you create the first scale manufacturing for a solution that you know basically works and you know basically if you build enough of it it's going to get to a price point that's attractive these sorts of things fall into the crevices between the market structures that have been scaled and become very large to address a different set of problems right you know that particular problem of scaling climate tech I refer to it as the tilema of late stage climate tech. The trilemma of late-stage climate tech is that it's too low return and long duration for venture and growth investors. It's viewed as tech risk by the banks and the capital markets and by the infrastructure investor universe. And if you don't build it, it's actually not cheap enough for the end user. And so you've got a chicken and egg problem.

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  6. I'll highlight one thing which I think, in my view, is very important. And that's this issue of intermediaries and market structure and also the relationship between various actors. I think that if we look at some of the most important problems in climate, and John talked earlier about the problem of scaling climate tech,

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  7. Like the way Ahmad put it an opportunity. But what else is needed from the public and the private sectors to deliver on sort of the climate challenge or the climate opportunity that we see in front of us outside of just investment dollars, which we spend a lot of time?

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  8. And you just talk through there so many of the different pieces that we've covered over the course of this conversation, innovation, collaboration, how we pair complementary expertise, how we look not only within our own organizations of what we can bring to the table, but then how do we, as you said, sort of share our toys and bring others along with us and figure out how to have higher impact through that partnership. One thing that I would love to get both of your perspectives on just given the breadth of expertise that you each come to this conversation with, Ahmed, you know, had incredible career in it out of the private and public sectors. John, you've worked across a variety of markets, industries, economies. We've talked so much today about what we can do to close this sort of climate gap.

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  9. Philanthropic capital is able to say, Hey, you know, that set of projects needs to get tested and off the ground today because we're going to need that kind of solution at 100 times the size in two years and we can't afford to wait. And so I think the power of the climate innovation fund from my perspective, we're targeting some very important geographies, India and Vietnam. We are trying to look for really catalytic transactions that are opening up markets that do not represent a one-time use. We're going to try to create models that are scalable and replicable and that generate a lot of impact over time. So we're very excited about it. We know that we've got our work cut out to find the right set of transactions in partnership with you and our colleagues at Bloomberg, but we think that this is both an important initiative in and of itself, but also illustrative of an approach that's going to be

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  10. And knowledge and insights available to institutions with the reach and capability and insights like Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg's. And so I'm really pleased that we found each other. You know, one of the things that John said earlier was that scaling high-impact climate solutions is something that will take blended finance tools. And I think that's a very, very important point that in many cases If we look at kind of narrow near-term current bankability criteria, there are things that we simply must do. They may be financially viable once we can trade carbon offsets or they may be financially viable as the market catches up to what we know it's going to be, but we simply can't wait. We've got to launch these experiments today so that they are in a position to scale quickly. And that really does take philanthropic capital because

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  11. But I think great partnerships are built when different organizations, beginning from their starting point, institutional starting point, their role in the ecosystem, recognize that they're not the complete answer. And they sort of fumble their way towards each other in the dark, and then they kind of find each other in the middle. And I think the climate innovation fund that we at ADB consider ourselves to be very privileged to be housing funded by Goldman Sachs and by Bloomberg, is an example of Goldman and Bloomberg as philanthropies and market actors recognizing that more collaboration was needed with public sector institutions and working their way towards us and recognizing that Asia really is ground zero for the climate change battle. And us at ADB recognizing that we had to make our relationship

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  12. Innovation facility that we have developed between the Asian Development Bank and Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs. And Ahmed would love for you to talk about how did that come together? What does that look like? Where do you see the goals? And how is that connected to a lot of the topics that we have been talking about today in terms of where the opportunity is to bring together complementary expertise?

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  13. Was one of the topics on the podcast that we just had actually digging into nature based solutions. And one of the concepts that we talked about was how do you scale that model? Because it demonstrates the power of innovation. It also demonstrates the power of partnership because John, to the points you're making, you do need to have some boots on the ground to understand the community impacts and to understand within these jurisdictions how you approach these investments really holistically and sustainably. And corporate corporates are really seeing that as an innovative opportunity. But the question is, how quickly can we scale that? I think so much of this discussion, even that we've had today, has been around there are these gaps, but what is the pace with which we can accelerate that transition and what are the tools that we have within the private sector and within the public sector to be able to marry that? And that's probably a great transition to talk a little bit about.

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  14. The idea that not just are you going to get investment flows to build renewables, but that you're going to get investment flows to make investments in carbon offsets. I mean, this is going to end up being just, you know, and let's just talk about the carbon prices you were just talking about, right? I mean, where do we think carbon will trade in 10 or 20 years with all of corporate industry long carbon right now? I mean, this is going to be a really valuable flow of funds. So I think that's something really interesting.

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  15. I'm talking specifically around nature based solutions, whether that's forestry or agriculture, whether we think about in the Asian economies or in Latam within the Amazon. A number of the nature-based solutions where investments are going in today that will ultimately generate carbon offsets where corporate clients are going to be making five, 10 year commitments to buy them. All that money is going to get directed into the emerging markets and get directed into rural communities. And so this is a really incredible opportunity for emerging economies.

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  16. Point around that this is an opportunity not a cost, I think it's particularly interesting for the emerging market in another important way. As we're talking to our largest global corporate clients and they have now mapped out their implementation plan, it becomes glaringly obvious to them that no matter how much capital they put to work towards their decarbonization, there is going to be an important gap. And the only way that important gap gets closed is through the acquisition of carbon offsets. These carbon offsets, this carbon live Most of it, the opportunity set is in the developing world.

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  17. Lesson that they're never going to get an opportunity like this again to improve the livelihoods of their people. I think that can become a very powerful driver of change that cuts across a lot of other things that are very complicated and difficult problems. Because as long as we're pushing up against results, In government, it's going to be a totally different dynamic. And to pivot to a dialogue that says, wow, this is an unbelievable opportunity to improve the livelihoods of people. And I think it happens to be true.

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  18. Whole host of really complicated issues. This issue of legacy assets and stranded costs and how we deal with them. The fact that we're dealing often with very discreet and what we would do as subscale problems that need to be aggregated. The fact that risk premiums are higher in these markets because legal systems are not necessarily as transparent. All of those things become easier if we have motivated governments who realize that if a leader wants to be remembered in 30 or 40 or 50 years as a transformational figure, if they can internalize

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  19. And speaking from the perspective of a development bank, I think there's a really important realization at the heart of it. And the really important realization is that, in fact, decarbonization is development, that the single greatest opportunity that countries in Asia and elsewhere will find to mobilize capital and capital married to skills and technology to come into their countries is going to be around decarbonization agendas. And so countries will have an opportunity to develop high quality jobs and cutting edge industry in the future on the back of inbound investment to drive decarbonization. And in fact, while we talk largely about energy, as we all know, this is a whole of society and whole of economy transition. The industrial sector, waste, roads, energy, telecom, everything. And so I think that's an important point. Now, John talked about a

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  20. I just want to pick up on a couple of themes that John mentioned. One of the real challenges, I think, in how we talk about the climate transition, and I'm speaking from the perspective of development in emerging market countries, one of the real challenges in how we talk about it is we've historically talked about it as a burden sharing exercise. And this is ultimately grounded actually in the macroeconomic framework that won a Nobel Prize. But the idea was that this transition was going to cost a lot of money and that the new world we would move into while it would be cleaner would actually be a more expensive one. And what we haven't fully incorporated in our understanding is, in fact, that we have an opportunity to pivot to a world that is better in every way, that's cleaner and in most cases once we scale the technologies, that's actually an NPV positive move.

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  21. The final point I'll mention is just the one that Ahmed already referenced in terms of their announcement at COP. The emerging markets, there is a lot of legacy coal fired power plants, and this is not something that you can just wave a wand tomorrow, build a whole bunch of renewable energy, and make the conversion, right? There are real issues around the grid stability. And so this has got to be done in a really, really thoughtful way through the energy transition mechanism that the ADV is working on and other types of mechanisms that are being looked at really working with companies on taking these assets and putting together an energy transition plan that shows the either retirement of these assets before their useful life or figuring out a way that's economically feasible to transition their feedstock is really necessary to move the needle. When you think about the amount of whole fire power plants in places like China and others, there's a real need.

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  22. Talking about sustainable farming, operational efficiencies for small and medium sized enterprises, fleet conversions, et cetera, right? And so while in the past a lot of our focus at Goldman has obviously done some very large multi-billion infrastructure, these are all going to be very, very small investments. And that's how we're going to conquer climate change. And so how do you approach this both the private sector and the multi- I think it's going to take a lot of innovation, but working with local and regional development banks, thinking about ways of warehousing risk and then taking a diversified portfolio of smaller underlying energy projects and securitizing them in the capital markets, I think is a real area of opportunity.

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  23. Multilaterals and the private sector to find the right balance on risk taking and the ultimate cost of capital Second challenge is that a lot of the investment that's going to need to happen in these emerging economies are going to need to happen.

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  24. While conventional renewable, I think, is now well banked, and speaking with Ahmed previously, there are markets like Vietnam and Thailand and others where putting together a financing for a conventional wind or solar deal now is extremely, extremely efficient, you know, capital, both banks and the capital markets. It will become more difficult when we start to work towards other types of climate tech, whether that be carbon sequestration, direct air capture, biofuels and transportation. And this is going to require some real innovation and probably a different view in terms of risk as you think about the scalability of these technologies. How do we address it? We address it through exactly these types of programs that Amed is talking about. It's going to require blended financing, a true cooperation between NGOs.

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  25. The expectation is that the total capital need to meet Paris alignment goals is around $6 trillion per year. And I think Amen mentioned that 50% of global emissions comes from Asia. And so a lot of this capital needs to be directed towards these Asian economies. So what are the challenges? And obviously this is something both Ahmed and I work on day to day with our clients as an institution as Goldman Sachs, as ADB, we've been working on deploying and attracting capital into infrastructure in these economies for a very long time. So what makes the challenge different as it relates to specifically around climate tech and energy transition? I think there are a couple of things. One is around technology risk and market risk.

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  26. That this subject of climate change is the single cross-cutting theme that affects everything we do. We cannot improve the lot of women if we don't affect climate change. We cannot uplift the poorest of our societies who get hurt more than others if we don't address climate change. And so this really has become this overarching organizing principle for our work

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  27. Objective. And the objective is to slow down and ultimately halt the process of runaway climate change. And so everything we do has got to be aligned with that. And I emphasize that because, you know, we are in a world where in an ecosystem where nobody owns the outcome often. You know, one part is responsible for tech innovation. Another part is responsible for capital mobilization. A third part is responsible for governance. We've all got to take ownership of outcomes. And so I think that's extraordinarily important for us as an institution. Now, we also have objectives in terms of supporting our countries in terms of their economic growth, increasingly we've realized certainly in the last 10 or 15 or 20 years how important the distribution of gains are to societies. But as I said at the outset, we see more and more

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  28. So, I really appreciate the question about objectives, Cara, because I think one of the traps that it's very easy for public sector institutions to fall into and that we have to guard against at ADB is the trap of being obsessed with intermediary variables. So we've laid out this objective of $100 million. The reality is that my children and other generations to come really couldn't care less if ADB deploys 100 billion or 200 billion. The only thing they care about is parts per million. How much GHG is in the air and how does it affect our civilizations and our societies? So I think one thing that's very important for us as an institution is that while we may define key goals, we have to be very, very focused on

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  29. Quantum of capital required is enormous but actually affordable in the context of a global savings are. And actually most of these technologies ultimately will be NPV positive. In other words, mobilizing the capital will make sense. So between the use of funds and the ultimate owner of funds, there's actually a high degree of alignment. But the one of the areas that I think we as an institution really need to spend time with you and others going forward, and this falls into the rubric of collaboration, is is the intermediary network fit for purpose today? Do we have the duration of capital we need? Do we have the right return targets? I think that's a place where collaboration goes beyond one plus one equals two and starts to become one plus one equals three or four. And I think that's a really important area to spend time on as we move forward.

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  30. Partnerships before handing the floor back to you. And this is really where I think we're going to need to spend a lot of time going forward as an institution. It's very clear that we have today the technologies we need to drive the climate transition.

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  31. Married it to our own money. Increasingly, we've got to take that privileged conversation and make it available to you and to other institutions. And just a couple examples of things that we've done recently. I mentioned the Climate Innovation Fund with Bloomberg and with Goldman Sachs, which is one example, I think, of a very high impact collaborative model. We've also created a new sustainable infrastructure financing platform with equity capital from Tamasic and HSBC. And then finally, we launched at COP26 something called the Energy Transition Mechanism, which is a blended finance vehicle which uses the power of concessional capital to reduce the cost of capital for an acquisition vehicle and basically used that to shut down coal-fired power plants early. So these are just some examples of, I think, where partnership looks like it's going to be able to have incremental impact in a way that it didn't. But I'd make a couple of other comments about these.

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  32. Sure. So just in the traditional areas of engagement, as you know, we're engaged in supporting governments, whether Now on the subject of partnerships, I'd say two different things, and I'll give you some examples of things we're doing. But the first thing is that we think that the fact that the private sector needs to act doesn't mean that the private sector has all the tools it needs at its disposal. And in particular, the interface with government is absolutely critical. And so multilateral development banks have a very unique role to play in helping the private sector engage government. And so that's one thing that we've been trying to do, saying that the intangible assets of our institution, you know, I have 50 people who work for me in Jakarta. We've been working on the Indonesian energy sector for 50 years. And I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that they trust us. So we have a privileged conversation with the government. Historically, we have primarily used that privileged conversation for our own ideas, our own insights.

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  33. Philanthropies. I know we'll talk about that later as one example. And there are others. But maybe just to answer your question at the outset, what I'd say is we've taken these two approaches. One is to do more with higher impact of the work that we've always done. And the second is to become a much better collaborator. And that's a journey that we're just beginning.

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  34. Public sector loan. And we need the private sector to step up in a big way. And our role is we see it in that process is to become a better collaborator and partner. And there's a number of issues here, I think, about how those partnerships are designed. But what we really done at ADB over the last two and a half years is to say, what can we do as an institution to take our unique assets? And our unique assets are relationship with government and trust and subject matter expertise in a host of areas that are relevant. And rather than being, you know, the kid who sits in the corner of the sandbox with his or her back to the other children and plays with their own toys, we're trying to turn around as an institution. And we're trying to share these very unique toys that we have with other institutions, institutions like yours, that have different skills and different capabilities. The Climate Innovation Fund that we launched with Goldman Sachs and Blue

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  35. Us there. So, if we look at our traditional work, which has primarily been efforts with government, we've been really ambitious as an institution. We just announced a hundred billion dollar climate financing target before 2030. And even that significant increase in our commitments doesn't reflect the full scale of our ambition. The Japanese Prime Minister announced in COP26 that they'll be working with us to set up a new facility at our institution that could unlock tens of billions of dollars of additional capital leveraging the power of guarantees from G7 member states and others. So that is our traditional work, and that's working with governments to provide them the financing they need to do the things they must around building sustainable infrastructure, about mitigation and adaptation planning in a number of different ways. But as you noted at the outset, the investment need is enormous. Those sums will simply not be achievable through the

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  36. And so while it's hard to prioritize amongst these very, very important competing strands, it's certainly very clear that climate is both urgent and critically important for us as an institution. And we've really taken two different approaches, just to answer your question at very, very high level just to kick us off. We've taken two different approaches to addressing the climate challenge in Asia. And as you noted, the battle against climate change will be won or lost in Asia. The region is already 50% of global GHG emissions and as developed countries start to decrease carbon intensity, that number is just going to keep going north unless we do something about it. And the two different approaches that we've taken at ADB, one is really in what I would call our traditional line of business. And one reflects the recognition that doing business the old ways just won't get

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  37. Sure, as an institution, Para, and thank you, of course, for having me. It's really an honor to be with you. As an institution, we were originally established with the goal of addressing poverty through the vehicle of economic growth and economic development. And over the years, that agenda as our understanding of the definition of human flourishing has continued to expand, that agenda has gotten broader. And I would say over the 50-some years of the history of our institution, for many of those years that that agenda has gotten broader to include things like gender, economic growth, inequality. And I think one of the really interesting things about the moment we're at right now is actually all of those strands are starting to reconverge on climate. And so every single thing that we do as an institution now is deeply affected by the climate transition.

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  38. That needs to be invested over the next few decades. We need to increase that investment by about five to eight times where we are today. And the majority of growth, this is also, I think, a really important sort of context for this conversation. The majority of the growth that we've seen in the past decade has come from high income economies, which make up more than 50% of that total capital invested. The pandemic only exacerbated this divide. In 2020, high-income economies increased year-over-year investment in energy transition by 24%, while emerging economies actually saw more than a 20% contraction. So a very significant divergence. All of this leads to a very simple reality, and I'd like to start the conversation here, which is that we need to see more investment at a faster pace in regions like Asia. You work, I'd love to kick off starting with you, you work closely with leaders in the private and public sectors across Asia.

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  39. Pleasure. Thanks, I'd like to start the conversation today by just giving a little bit of context around addressing climate and the role of emerging economies. So just to level set for a second with a little bit of background, if we're going to meet the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, it's going to take a tremendous amount of investment. Our research estimates that that will require about $120 trillion in investment by 2050. So just a very significant magnitude of that about $120 trillion, 55% of those funds will need to be focused on Asian economies. The good news is that we have seen momentum globally in sustainable finance in recent years with investment in energy transition going from $290 billion globally in 2011 to upwards of $500 billion in 2020, but that still puts us behind the pace required to meet those very significant amounts of capital.

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  40. Hello and welcome to another episode of Accelerating Transition. I'm Kara Mangom, global head of climate strategy here at the firm. In our previous episodes, we've taken a close look at how the private sector is taking steps necessary to address climate change. But meeting the challenge of net zero is going to require the private sector, the public sector, and partnerships between the two. To talk more about those partnerships and collaboration, I'm very excited to be joined by my two guests today, Ahmed Saeed, a Vice President of Operations in the Asian Development Bank, which has spurred investments in projects like mass transit, green buildings, and sustainable agriculture across Asia. I'm also joined by my colleague, John Greenwood, head of the Decarbonization Group in our investment banking division, which works with companies and sovereigns to reach their net zero goals. Ahmed John, thanks so much for joining me today.

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