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Matthew Mežinskis

lines on the record: 85
first: 2024-09-18
most recent: 2024-09-18
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Right. So the basket changes. But I can still with the basket that I have measure a monthly growth. And this is where I get my top line number. So this is this black. Let me take off the red. So this is with the baskets that I have, I can still figure it out, do weighted averages of the monetary base. And the US, like I said, is only 20, 22% of the monetary base now back in the 70s it was like 40%, something like it with the data that I had, obviously, regardless. We get to this number that we talked about. This is exponential growth”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is the only point you got to imagine I got 50 currencies here, but before 2007, I didn't have 50. It wouldn't be right to start doing a year-on-year change.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Isn't that I mean, you want to look at it. I mean, yes, it's true. Yes, we are top heavy there, but it's still the best benchmarks for stock markets. And yeah. So I absolutely think this is going to change. At some point, of course, the question is always when, but based on, let me back this up and show you something interesting here. This is actually an interesting point. People always say the dollar is going to crash and whatever. I'm sure you've had a variety of guests over the years that think the dollar is doomed. And Peter Schiff, obviously, our Bitcoin friend, is always saying this. But in fact, if you look at it this way from the construct of the central bank's monetary base, the dollar actually comes off looking quite strong. And I'll try to illustrate that here. So without it going too much into my metrics and my methodology, I only go back to the global financial crisis here because”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is just changing dollar value. You can see that just huge, these are trailing 12 month numbers. So we were, like you said, the peak was COVID and now we're clearly grinding on the bottom side. And really, it's never been this negative as far as changes. The worst was in, or the best really, if you want to talk about cutting the money supply, was in December of October, December 2022, went down 13.7% per year, continued, that Twitter linked 12-month continued a little bit. And now it's still low at 4% per year. So I absolutely agree with you. We're on the lower end. And if you look at the way that they're talking, PAL is obviously already hinting that he's ready to drop finally. So, you know, it's just gasoline on the fire, right?”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, completely agree, and you're completely correct to have that assessment. I'll show you here. So, this is a same chart. I'm zooming in to from pretty much the global financial crisis. So we're at $5 trillion monetary base then roughly went up to 30 down back down to 26.12. So if I showed you the dollar changes”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Much right at Bitcoin valuations. And then, of course, you have the dollar and the dollar this does match that M0 chart that you said that you showed me. It's 5.73 trillion. That's the monetary base of the US Federal Reserve. And then the rest of the world is 18% of that. Little less than five trillion. So it's again rated distribution as, you know, pretty common, works everywhere, and you see the top five has always been 80% or so of the pie.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is in dollar terms, you can't see it, but so this is Japan in dollars, right? This is Wittgenstein's ruler, right? Everything, there's no North Star in finance, so we have to, I'm putting it in terms of dollars, but of course this is, again, thinks this is actually yen when you're looking at this. So 4.2 trillion is yen. And if I gave you the actual yen figure at $675 trillion and then remember, we were looking at that $100 trillion so chart. That was actually just the paper. So this is the yen. We stack on the yuan. stack on the euro and then stack on the pound of course and this is where bitcoin is larger than you see the pound right now is about trillion one”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And anyway, COVID hits and you see it just explodes. It was $20 trillion before COVID February 2020 and then 30.5 trillion. Year later, a year, two years later. So that should just understand that's how money per printing actually works. This is the actual printing press went up 10 trillion. And now we're back down. They've again tried to do normalize normalization of all balance sheets. And we're back down to 26 trillion. More to say on this, but let's just keep it with the descriptions maybe. Just to show you Japan. So here's Japan.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The US spiked a lot, but worldwide we're all just chugging along printing. And then you see they tried from 2018 to just before COVID, in fact, to normalize. And you may remember we had that repost bike in September of 2019. So it really wasn't normalizing, but they were trying to.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As I said, it's about a 3070 split. This is the total you're looking at between cash and bank reserves, okay? So that's bottom line big picture. This is how it looks. And just right off the bat, you can see obviously a huge, really the biggest spike we had was not the global financial crisis.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I just don't have the, you know, if the donations go up, maybe I can get it there. But I have a few charts hosted. Bitcoin on my website. It's poorcopplas.io. Most of these you're going to have to go to my YouTube channel or check out the monetary base websites. One base money you can find me anywhere as a platform. But yeah, it's just local hosting most of these. It's high charts program. Anyway, so this is the figure, right? We're at 26. 26.12 trillion. And you remember, Preston, you asked me about how much physical cats in the world, about 9 trillion?”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Highlighting the top five currencies, world basic money. So the total, I don't know if I've told you yet, is you see the tooltip there, world total, 26.1.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's why I do it myself. That's why none of these APIs exist on like half of these, more than half of these banks and stuff. But anyway, back to your, you actually, you want me to show you my screen? Yeah.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Demand for cash, yeah. So that's what you can really see that in a physical cash chart, but it's even on trading view, it's so confusing for people. You want to get a nice API or whatever. And even with the biggest central banks, this is incorrect data. Japan, it's correct to call it M0, but it's not correct to call the US chart M0. That is US MB or monetary base. So if anyone from Trading View is listening.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. And the actual monetary base of Japan is 675 trillion yen. This is 113. And you can see another very interesting thing just about the cash markets is you see how like they're very, not the last recent like year, but see how the spikes basically every year? Go back to the 80s. That's a very interesting, like, you always see that in the cash markets. That's the holidays, the holidays spike up.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because even M0, as I said, can be broken down into this vault cache cache outside. Even right here on TradingView, these are incorrect numbers. So the reason is very simple, a very simple broad concept. Perhaps someone a trading view here is from the UK, but the UK, South Africa, and one other country I'm blanking on right now, they typically use this term M0 for the monetary base. That's how they call the monetary base. Which includes both the currency and the reserves But as I defined it to you and how the US use it, the US says MB on monetary base for specifically the balance sheet of the Fed. And M0 is just the cash. So just for an example, this M0 that you're showing on the screen, that is US monetary base. But if you go to Japan, that's why I wanted you to... Double check Japan, that is just cash. That's just physical currency.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I absolutely do agree with it. But one thing that's very interesting, and maybe if you can leave the charts back on, I don't use TradingView precisely for this reason. Maybe if the trading view people are listening, this is like, you know, maybe some breaking news for them. But this is one of the big problems with money supplies, which I'm going to M1M2M3, or especially the monetary base versus M0, as we just talked about.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's just a huge penetration of this whole market in the last 15 years and just get right down to brass tacks. Bitcoin has already passed the fifth largest currency and it did that in February and that was the British pound sterling. So of all the pound sterling notes with the queen on them, all the notes and pictures and coins plus the bank reserves in the British Isles, that's about 1.1 trillion. Right now, Bitcoin's floating below 60,000. It's actually flirting with that market cap. This goes by market cap, of course, the comparison. So Bitcoin is right at about, but for since February, it's been above this, which was pretty remarkable. It's been above. And that's the fifth largest currency. And then after you get asked to sterling, you only have four left. And that's the dollar, the euro, the yen, and the one.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's a little bit gold actually as I'm counting it gets up to about $15 trillion now because we had a big run up, remember in this last year. Up to $2,500 an ounce. So the current valuation of gold minus about seven to eight percent industrial gold, which I don't count, like there's 50% industrial silver. You probably know about 15 trillion. And the numbers that are constantly changing, right? It's also something to think about. It's like, that's the gold pot, then there's the fiat pot, then we have the Bitcoin pot. We have a silver pot too, which is a bit smaller. It's about 600, 700 billion silver. But Bitcoin is 1.2 trillion, 1.1 trillion, depending on the day at the moment. So that's a huge.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a real up to date as of last quarter. That's the top 50 currencies in the world. You know, you weight them all by the exchange rates, $9 trillion, a little over 9, 9.1 trillion dollars.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah. And the actual number, if you market to market US dollar equivalent, sorry, the percentages there, the actual number is $9 trillion. It's about $9 trillion.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, right. So it's just a small technicality, but to split those up, what I just said, it's roughly 95, it depends on the central bank, but 90 to 95% is M0. That means out in the economy, out in the world, and 5 to 10% is in banks.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not in the central bank, but in banked vaults. I just call it vault cash. It is called vault cash. So you have vault cache M0. Yeah. Vault cache plus M0 equals Physical currency issued by the central bank. So there's actually three different physical currency. I've never heard that before.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, regardless the quick little math correction. So the M0, yeah, it's actually, again, some slight technicalities with M0. People confuse us a little bit. So if you have M0, that is the cash and coin that is outside in the economy, like I said, in people's wallets and stuff. That's not all of the cash. There is that small portion, which is not M0, and that is cash that is still in bank vaults”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. Before I answer that, I was just thinking always doing math on the fly is hard. If I die, I said a billion and a billion one in my prior example is 100 million would be that net base. I say that was 100 million.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“JP Morgan Chase has a billion dollars owed from, let's say, PNC Bank or something, it's a Midwestern bank where I'm from. And PNC Bank says owed a billion one from JPMorgan Chase. So they don't like, how do they solve that? Well, they solve it with the bank reserves. End of day final settlement. There's no more core thing in the financial system is $100 million of bank reserves would flow between JPMorgan Chase and PNC. It's a final net settlement, but we call it real-time gross settlement because you're actually wiring like real, real cash, real bank reserves. And of course, this is just all done in the books of the Fed primary other New York Fed. And that's how it goes. So that's a little bit more verbose probably than we needed, but that's the monetary base. Some of it's paper, some of its digital. And like I said, the split about today worldwide is 70, 30, 70% of these reserves, 30% cash.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At the end of the day, if you think the old ways of payment in the US, a check, for example, you can have a check from PNC Bank, a check from JPMorgan, Chase, and you think about how long it might take one person deposits the check, one person might take a couple months or whatever. And you have all these checks outstanding between banks, but eventually, and it really does work this way, right? And the financial system eventually go up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is done. It's done and the money is moved. It's real time gross settlement. And the same thing is with the bank reserves, it's done in the United States through FedWire system. And that is just a massive amount of cash. It's a quadrillion dollars a year or something like that. I have a chart. I didn't have it ready, but I do have a chart tracking that. In volume, when you're saying a quadrillion, yes. Not value, but volume. So incredibly voluminous high velocity transactions. And that's the base money.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is, if you think about it, kind of like fiat gold or something, or it's the fiat way that banks move money around. But really what it is, it's the bank account for each bank. So each bank in a banking system, so in the United States, Federal Reserve System, all the banks that have a charter, they have what's called a master account. And that master account is literally the bank reserve. So they'll have a ledger entry. They have assets with the Fed. The Fed has liabilities to the bank. That's the bank reserve. It doesn't have to be digital, by the way. I mean, bank reserves existed before computers were around. You totally had bank reserves in the old days. But now it's very fast. It's very liquid. So those two things, by the way, are most analogous to Bitcoin because they're what we call RTGS or real-time gross settlement. And those are the only things actually in the banking system that are such. So in the United States, when you want to clear these, obviously when you clear the cash, that's pretty simple, right? It's real time, like one person has the cash, the other person doesn't wants to.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yep, absolutely. It used to be 80 20 hash to bank reserves before the global financial crisis. Now it's about 70, 30 bank reserves to cash. Wow. It's a complete inversion almost. And we can talk about the effects of that. But just to lay down the definitions a little bit more, the bank reserves as I always define them.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market often because it's liquid and it's easy to talk about. But what I focus on is the liability side of the balance sheet, and that is what they use to buy those treasuries. And of course, that's this money printing, the printing press, that's the monetary base. So that's what it is. It's the liability side of the central bank balance sheet. And it's two things, traditionally primarily. The first is the notes and the coins that you have in your wallet, in a grocery store till under your mattress. Everybody knows what that is, obviously. That is counted. That is recorded somewhere. It's a liability of the central bank. It used to be the majority of the liabilities. Now it's a minority. The new majority is what they call the bank reserves. What's the percentage”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's basically assets on a central bank, which we talk, I know you talk about on the show a lot. What is a central bank buying? What's a central bank selling? Typically, they used to in old days hold gold, which is the backer of the money. But now it's mostly for big central banks. It's the sovereign bonds. It's the sovereign debt of the country, and they can influence the price of the bonds, of course, many ways by doing many different activities. But so it's the treasury market is what the central bank holds on their asset side. Of course, they're not the full treasury market, but it is a huge proportion, by the way. The United States, when the Federal Reserve started 100 years ago, they held zero bonds. They were buying corporate bonds. They were lending to banks. It was a totally different thing. Now they hold about 20% of all United States debt Federal Reserve. So that's seven, eight, nine trillion. It fluctuates, right? On their asset side, that's about 20% of all of the treasuries outstanding. So that's just a little side note. But anyway, we get lost in the treasury.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, sure. Yeah, it's kind of, I have hung my head on that for many years now. You can find me on most platforms at one base money, the number one base money. It's a concept that I think has been overlooked, frankly. And, you know, you can get conspiratorial. Why is it not understood more? I don't think you need to get conspiratorial. I just think it's because we're talking about central banks. We're talking about a monopoly. We're talking about a privileged class. It's usually something that they don't really want to sort of shed light on. But if you actually drill into the numbers, which are there, they are available. You just have to find them on the websites and on the balance sheets of central banks. It can illuminate a lot of the confusion around the whole financial system, in my opinion. So anyway, that's what I've been trying to get to over the years. This is the starting the seventh year of me tracking this stuff. I do it every quarter. And basically what it is, is you're looking at the liability side of the central bank. That's what base money is. If that sounds confusing.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it was great. That high signal event for sure. The first one we did was in November of 2017, which was an exciting time, as you can imagine. It was like right after Segwit was activated and we had been screaming towards all-time highs. It was a very exciting time. But people were a little bit thinking for Riga, we could do a little bit better for the weather. So we moved it earlier. And it's actually gotten earlier and earlier. Now it was in late August, which was kind of an interesting time for a conference, but I'm glad for the people that wanted to be there were there. So it was really good. Yeah.”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thank you, Preston. Nice to meet you. Finally, it was nice to meet you in Riga. It was briefly, and yeah, how did you like being over here for the money?”
2024-09-18 · We Study Billionaires · BTC200: Base Fiat Money and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mežinskis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT