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Mel Mattison

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105
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2024-05-20
most recent
2024-05-20
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1
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podcast

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  1. “Well, some of these things have happened before. So if you look at when we win off the gold standard in 1971, what happened to the gold price over the next 10 years, it went up 25 times. It went from $35 an ounce to $875 an ounce in essentially a 10-year period. So just imagine if you use a baseline of, say, 2000 and then you put a 25 times multiple on that, you know, you're at a $50,000 gold price. Now, I'm not saying gold's going to $50,000 anytime soon, but I do think that, and other people have talked about this before, there have been two times when the Dow equaled the gold price. One of them was in the Great Depression when the Dow traded down to, I believe, about 36 and the gold price at that time was 35.”

    2024-05-20 · Forward Guidance · Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “So, I think those are great points, and they're well taken. And I think what you want to look at is what is the market telling you. So look at certain market signs. You look at the gold price. So we're over $2,400 as we're recording this on the front month futures contract, silver over $30. If you look at treasury auctions, obviously in Q4 last year, we had a five basis point tail on a 10-year treasury auction. We recently had a three basis point tail this quarter. And just for your listeners, that's when basically the bid to cover is coming in under the market price. And so in as liquid and as big and as large as the market as the treasuries, even a three, four, five basis point tail is a significant event.”

    2024-05-20 · Forward Guidance · Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “The entitlement spending and the situation with the Social Security Trust Fund and other unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government. And I come to the conclusion that as was predicted by John Maynard Keynes in 1944 at Brett and Woods, that if you put the US dollar as a reserve currency, you get into the situation that many of your listeners may be aware of, you know, Trippins paradox or Trippin's dilemma where the reserve currency country essentially to feed the global economy the amount of dollars that it needs gets itself in perpetually untenable debt situation and that we're reaching a crescendo and that at some point in the next, I believe probably 2026, 2027 timeframe, we're going to have an asset bubble. And then a collapse.”

    2024-05-20 · Forward Guidance · Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Concern by big players, whether that be the rating agencies or what have you. And I think a lot of times it's a little bit of a boy crying wolf situation where people have been predicting this, predicting this, and people are saying, yeah, people have been predicting this for 20 years that, you know, the situation is untenable. But I think that the market is now telling us that it really is and that we're getting close to that end game. And so what I've done is I take a financial history perspective. I look at the really history of central banking, why it exists, what's been going on, going all the way back to William III, 1694, founding of the Bank of England. And I move it through today and into the Bretton Woods era. And then I kind of flip on top of that an understanding of”

    2024-05-20 · Forward Guidance · Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Really quick background on me. I've spent over 20 years working in the financial services industry, working for large established managers like Russell Investments, Venture Capital Funded Firms like United Capital, which was sold to Goldman Sachs for $750 million in 2019. I have an MBA from Duke University in finance. And during the course of these 20 years, I've also been a bit of an amateur financial historian and an active investor. And what has happened to me is I've listened and been aware for a long time about people talking, you know, we're getting into untenable situations with debts and deficits. And I've always looked at the market for what's really going on. And I haven't really seen that distress or that loss of appetite for U.S. treasuries or”

    2024-05-20 · Forward Guidance · Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT