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Michael Covel

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142
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2016-01-08
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2016-01-08
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  1. Well, the rules have not necessarily changed that much. People might argue that the rules have changed, but they really haven't changed. It's understanding the human condition because it really calms you down. You realize, hey, look, there's a lot of luck in this world. Things are random. I think anybody can go out and figure out a way to make their first million dollars. But, you know, it's a little luck sometimes if you're going to make a billion. So don't kill yourself trying to think you're going to make a billion. You're probably not going to be suckberg.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. You're a free agent develop an expertise. Do it. Yeah. Why? Why? Do you really want to spend? I mean, do you really want to spend your life working for someone else? No, you don't. Look at you. I can see those eyes right now. You want no part of it.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. But if you had a death cross and a diversified portfolio and it was your signal for entry with a stop loss, that's different than all the technical wonks out there that say, oh, here's the death cross. This means six months from now, this is going to happen. That's all. Right.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Absolutely. You've got to. It depends, though. If you've got a diversified portfolio, You've got to take positions in some markets that might be going different than equities. You might get stopped out. So you can't just be a trend following trader on one market, which if you wanted to sum up one of the issues that we talked about too was the death cross. The whole death cross, I agree with your analysis on it. I think the thing that Jerry Parker, one of the turtles, was saying, was yes, but the death cross can be the initial signal for a trend that might develop. It's not a forecast. That never works. And I agree with your analysis on that.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. All these blow ups, right? The assorted blow ups don't help confidence. So I think that's the biggest thing. And I think also, for example, in the trend following space, if you look at the last, since the biggest, I mean, 2014 was a pretty good year because of the oil move down. But if you look at 2008 was the last really fantastic year. And then a lot of kind of ups and downs. Look, as a trend-following trader, you can't control these ups and downs. So I think what's going to be interesting to see as we watch interest rates change, as we watch, you know, will we have another 10 years of equity markets just marching up? I don't know. Who knows? You could. And if that would be...

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Animal Yeah, it started with a study of dung beetles, just really fascinating stuff. I don't know, you know these things. The list goes on forever. What do you think of the old stuff that I really like? One of my favorite authors, I think it's called The Wisdom of Insecurity by Alan Watts. Who introduced Buddhism and Zen to the Western world back in the 50s. And in fact, if you Google Alan Watts, go to YouTube, much of the stuff that he has on YouTube is just absolutely fabulous. Just calm you down. Because look, look, if you're going to be a trader, you're going to be an investor. If there's any one type of thinking that's just really nice for trading and investing is a Zen mindset.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. And if you Google my name, I know I've got a couple recommended book lists out there if you just type in my name. Give me one

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Seth Godin's lynchpen. A simple book, the first 30 pages. If you know a young person or anybody that's confused about their career, what they want to do in life, he's one of these guys that basically says, you know what, you've got all the tools you need. You've got the internet. Go make some art. Go do something. Chris.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. To sum it up, it's Steering clear of, I mean, look, we're in this facility right now where everyone is seeing the same thing. So, how does one go ahead and find a different place to be? I mean, that sums up Lewisian strategy. And I know one that you would hate for me to say. Go ahead. But I tell you, I do love it. I still love the energy and the thought process, the thinking. The main character in the fountain head.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. And then you could look at the markets and you can realize, oh, yeah, crew just moved big that month and you know what's going on.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Unless I had the performance that said, okay, look, look at the correlation between Bill Dunn, John Henry, David Harding, the Turtles, Larry Height. And when you start to look at the correlation performance, then you're like, oh, all these different people, different walks of life, different training, unaffiliated. Making money in the same months and losing money in the same months.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I mean, you can look at, I mean, that was the foundation for all of my books. I couldn't write about trend following.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. You know One of the things that really triggered me early on, and I'm just thinking about Simon's and his track record, with trend following traders being regulated by the CFTC, the NFA, you could always do a FOIA request and get their disclosure documents. So for me early on.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. If you listen to Simons, though, Everything he says publicly, and I've listened to almost everything he said publicly, there's not much, sounds like a trend-following trader. If and until and when some type of subject on the short term comes up. So I just thought it was an interesting conversation. One of my first conversations with David Harding, that as a man who was Very firmly in the asset management space, the competitiveness which he had to look at his peers. So that affected me too. It shows you behind the curtain. You know how these guys are thinking. You know how the best in the world are thinking and whether or not you use that experience or not, you now know how the game is played really.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. I said, I don't have any experience with him. Harding was making the case that for somebody to do as well as Simons had did and has done, that there had to be a trend-falling component. Now, what's interesting, if you listen to that.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Of course, inflows, but still, it's a tremendous success. He had one stretch of 20 years after fees. And the first time I met him, I was in his office in London. And to watch his competitiveness struck me because he wanted to talk about Jim Simons. And I don't know much. 40%.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Know there's a whole team of people that we've talked about today, but I'll bring up somebody that I've mentioned briefly, which is David Harding of Windsing Capital. And David is probably considered today the Most successful trend following trader. His fund is around $30 billion today. In 1997, it was $5 million, I believe.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Crazy small world story. But when he got me an informational interview with Bill Dunn in 1996, I remember he Bill Dunn called me up on the phone. He knew I was coming down. And he said, so do you want to come down here and press me And I remember being a little bit scared because I knew I was talking to a guy worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He was managing billions, but I saw it within him too was, again, that Jim Massey, that attitude, that I'm just this a tough attitude, he's a former marine, former Marine physicist. But those things instilled in me, even if it wasn't my personality, to show those to other people deep in my gut, deep in my mind, I knew those were changing me.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Yeah, South Florida. And it was a crazy small world story where my baseball coach when I was 16 ended up, and today he's the president of Dunk Capital. I don't know how that even happened. Wow, that's.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. And Bill Dunn, too. Bill Don, the traitor that I mentioned with the 40 year track record, seeing him in person. And I remember.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Best is some nebulous who knows what best means. That doesn't mean anything, right? You want to win, however you're going to measure winning. At least you got to be able to measure it in some way.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. I mentioned Jim Massey at Solomon Brothers. Because when he told me, you don't want to be the best, you just want to win, that forces you as a young man, you realize, okay, I've got diarrhea in the mouth, I'm just talking, and that forces you to realize that. This is a game you play to win. This isn't no longer Kumbaya. Everyone gets a trophy. This is playing for keeps. And that. In that instant changed me. I didn't really have much more involvement after that with him. He did get me an interview at Solomon Brothers in 1994 during the bond market massacre, which really didn't help much. But that was a change.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Your audience listening right now that knows you've not been to Asia Knows that when you come in 2016, I'm going to change my whole attitude on that.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Saying this is good or bad. Let the market decide. We've gotten a little over regulated on some of these things. I know we're trying to protect everybody. I know we're trying to make everything fair, but we all know that when it's all said and done, no one's protected and ain't fair.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. I mean, you know, there's some nice stores out here. I see people selling high end goods. I see the Apple store and that kind of stuff, but I don't see the ability for the average person to go jump at it really quickly.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. Commerce, commerce. And that's, it's not even the government style of Vietnam and China as communist, the people are Asian. The people are merchants. And that is That's pure trade

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Of course, of course. Bangkok, though, and Hong Kong and Ho Chi Minh City, Saigon, places like Shanghai, you can get something started. You can find out what the demand is. And if it doesn't work, I can't tell you how many times I passed a store in Saigon where it's like, that store looks kind of dead. I wonder how long they're going to make it. And they're gone in a month. I mean, so people just try. There's this look, I still remember the first time three years ago I'm walking the streets with this young lady and I looked at her and I said, we're all commun She didn't get the joke because everything I saw was selling.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. Commerce. I mean, for example, look in. Clearly, the registration requirements, the ability to launch a restaurant, launch a store. Singapore is highly regulated, but in many places.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. What's the difference? We haven't talked to charts today, and not that I'm a chart guy or anything, but if we look at some of those charts, and everyone can imagine what the charts look like, just imagine what the US dollar looks like on a chart. And then imagine if you're straight up for nine years, if you're in other parts of the world, that's a good thing to be.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. No. And it's completely different. And not only do you have something, people might say, well, this is not really relevant appearance is clearly an issue in any on airlines.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. Silicon Valley does exceptional things, but overall there is a feeling, if you want me to compare and contrast, there's this energy, there's this excitement, there's this desire. Maybe it's misplaced, maybe it won't get where they want to go, but you can feel it. Even in a Tokyo still, and I know Tokyo is a big city, and maybe the outer areas aren't doing as well, but that energy and enthusiasm and all the things that you mentioned, for example, infrastructure, when you see so many infrastructure projects getting off the ground, and I'll tell you one of my damn pet peeves airlines, specifically the staff on an airline.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. Debate for horsemen. So, if anybody wants to really argue with me, I say, you know what? There's four guys on YouTube that are much smarter than me. And they talk for about two hours at a roundtable. Give that a shot. And they come back to me when you're after watching that. You probably, if you're either going to like me or you're going to hate me, one or the other.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. It's true, we're all going to die and make art. But I think a lot of people don't think they're going to die, so they don't do anything.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. Art's fun. Art is fun. Art is commercial, isn't it? Of course, we're going to die. We're all going to die. Make art Whether it's a book, whether it's a podcast, whether it's a trading system, I don't care. Make art. You're gonna die.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. If I don't have to finance any of it, and I found in making a film, there's two types of staff. There's really the people that will come along and work their butt off and they really want to make creative magic. And then there's the other people that just want to paycheck. So there's a whole, I think it's 50% of the film world is like just kind of, you know, they know there's these budgets and they're going to get a paycheck and they're really like half.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. I know there's guys behind the curtain up here in Oz and stuff like that, but. Ultimately, we all wanted to get rich. We all had no problem getting a million dollar mortgage from WAMU in 2003 with no docs down.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. I mean, the federal. Dick Fold. Yeah, I didn't blame Dick Fold. I mean, look, the Fed's done what they've done, but ultimately we're the people. We do it. You know, we vote for it. We support it.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. You need to have time. So if there's going to be a big event, you really can't be first. You need to have time for people to settle on it. Even though I thought my message was important for people to really think about the bubbles and whatnot and how to prepare, it was too early. And I think also I wasn't blaming anybody except the end user. I was blaming us. I didn't blame all these boogeymen up here on Wall Street. The Fed and.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. I learned don't submit your film to Sundance. In September of 2008, because that was the deadline, September of 2008, mid-September of 2008 was I had to submit the film to Sundance. So, you know, of course, and I think the thing that I really learned is that.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. I have them from his before Leg Mason when he was at Credit Swiss before because he came back to Credit Swiss now. So I've got all of his old ones from the 90s.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. Success equation. Listen, you know what's great about what Michael did? Michael really made it, I don't want to say fashionable, that sounds trite, but he made it very acceptable to take all these disparate disciplines and use them to make a point in investing. He was doing that in the late 90s.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. The poker, though. The poker was the real thing. The poker was, you know, getting the poker players in the film because I had so many people talking about poker, whether it was the trend following traders or at the time Bill Miller or Michael Mobison down there at Leg Mason. I know Mike.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. And what's sad about it is if we had to really make a moral type statement, no one's going to care. No one's going to do anything. The country's too big, whatever. But it really is something where the government is truly abusing the disadvantaged class.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. And you really don't think about bubbles. So that was really the premise. I wasn't trying to make any grand statement about where things can go. Of course, in the middle of it, I took some shots at things like state lotteries, which are a boondoggle.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. And as we were filming it, we were stumbling into the crisis. What is the housing crisis was unfolding? So it wasn't planned. And I wasn't really trying to make any kind of a fundamental statement other than look what can happen when you lever up.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. We shifted on a dime And she said, Michael, I want to do a story on a guy that started with nothing, went to a billion and lost it all. And I said, well, that's great. We don't have that person. And she said, well, I know someone that that happened to. And I said, oh, really? Who? I looked up the guy's name and he was an heir to the Nestle family fortune. And I said, we can't use this guy. It's not going to work. And she said, Michael, don't worry about it. The audience will believe anything we tell them to believe. And I said, okay, you're fired. So long story short, long story short, I ended up becoming the director and it was.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. So a budget was put together and there was going to be a reality show on the turtles. Then at the process of doing my turtle book, a lot of the turtles started throwing, look, this was a secretive thing. People didn't want this out. So I got a few legal. Few legal notices here and there.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. They're rolling their eyes at that. Now, come on. Look, I'm like you. I have to ask a lot of interesting people to come on a podcast. So you got to do the approach, right? Did you get Was? Yeah, I'm sitting there minding my own business. This guy taps me on the shoulder. I'm sitting with my parents. This guy taps me on the shoulder. I got my cell phone plugged in behind me. He says, hey, can I share? Can I plug my splitter in and share your power?

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. Really has to so hold on, it goes back to 1989. Just keep talking. I find this picture for you. Where the heck is it? You will be.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. Buffet in the last 25 years. That right there is amazing. For people that don't understand trading or even people that do understand trading, that Warren Buffett's allowing himself to take 5, 30% plus drawdowns. A lot of wisdom in that statement, in that bit of evidence to break apart for sure.

    2016-01-08 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Covel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source