YouSaid · the spoken record

Michael Drury

lines on the record: 121
first: 2024-08-26
most recent: 2024-08-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah. I mean, and just Kim Kotok, the same the camaraderie, the exchange of information, not everyone agrees. In fact, there's pretty vocal arguments, but there's not screaming. Which is what you find in so much of the rest of the world now. And so, yeah, it's a great community and a great place to bounce ideas around and try them and see people push back or if they accept it or to develop your view of the world. So they'll keep”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's what I was supposed to do. Yeah, I mean, especially if you're young, I don't know the exact age limit, you might be a little bit above the age limit, but it's a... Discounted one. So I'm a member and I'm so glad the last GIC event. I sat next to a central bank governor who was a governor of ECB system bank. And yeah, it's tremendous.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“David was integral to the Global Independence Center and other groups that I'm in, like NBEC. David became a huge mentor. And I went from being a member to being a speaker to being a sponsor to being the assistant program director, the program director, the chairman for three years, chairman emeritus. I'm still on the program committee at left. It's a no brainer. It's what I was supposed to do. Yeah, I mean,”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, we want to negotiate, you can just go next door. Yeah. And there's cheap credit into China. There was a cheap currency. They gave it the land. There's all sorts of stimulus and subsidies. Mike, we could go on for hours. We're at Camp Kotop. We should be getting on to dinner. But I've got a final question for you, which is, how long are you coming to Camp Kotok? And what does Camp Code Talk mean to you?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But people tell people to do business there. They tell me, say, no, it's just moving further into China because it's cheaper and it's still cheaper. And the clustering effect is enormous where I talk to a guy who is on a plane and he's just coming back and he said there are 10,000 foundries in China. I can go and compete 10,000 guys against each other to get price. I go to Vietnam there are six foundries. I mean, I just don't have the ability to. The boundaries there, and they're right next to it, is the factory. So”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not a holiday, but it's not friends, yet they run a hundred billion dollar trade deficit. If India is going to grow that fast, there's going to be a lot of exposure to China because that's where they're getting a lot of the equipment and their semiconductors and et cetera, et cetera. So it's going to be hard to replace the Chinese efficiency on the factory floor.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“India runs a hundred billion dollar trade deficit with China. I mean, it's a $3 trillion economy, so that's like a tenth the size of the United States. So that'd be like the United States running a trillion dollar trade deficit with China. And they hate each other. They're fighting a war on the border, right? I mean, there's another one of these weird things.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think Japan is the worst of the Rust Belt in that it's the closest to China. So it's the most impacted by the competition. And it is one-on-one. It is electric vehicles to electric vehicles, electronics to electronics, et cetera, et cetera. And it's just, it was Japanese capital going into China that started the whole Chinese Revolution. And there's still a lot of Japanese capital in China. A lot of it's been pushed aside by Japanese firms. And you don't see Japanese capital going someplace else. It first went to South Korea, then it went to China, right? You don't see it going to make Thailand, but like I said, Thailand's not really the best place to invest right now. You don't see Japan going into Indonesia the way you see China. You don't see things that terrify me. I mean, the fastest growing place in the world right now is India.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, but what about their inflation rate has been picking up and their unemployment rate is super, super low, as you pointed out to me a year ago? Is Japan going to finally start growing like it hasn't grown since the 1980s? No.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Europe is an integrated economy at this point, so you should really think of it more as a block. And the fact that there's a problem in Germany, Germans will have to work that out, right? I mean, they have their own legal system, et cetera, et cetera. But Europe is grinding out. But even when it gets out, Europe's going to grow one. That's their trend growth. Japan's going to grow that even. Okay, but what about?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, they don't have any NBER group like we do in the United States. I mean, they're still typically the back-to-back negative quarter. And then since they revised them, I think they just revised away a recession in Germany. And that becomes another question is, I mean, should you really be talking about a recession in Germany instead of a recession in the Eurozone? Of its currency block. We talk about the United States. Do we talk about a recession in Detroit as opposed to a recession in the United States? That's a good point. You can do that, but I mean...”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's low typically services above 54, and it's not. I think it's 51.2 or something like that. It's not a great number. A terrible number, it's just not great. But in other places in Europe, it's starting to pick up. Services are getting better. So they're not as big a service economy, but services are bigger than manufacturing all across Europe. So for services to be better offset some of the problem of manufacturing not. Again, to me, it's almost like take your angst about the United States about to go into recession and go back and look at Europe and go back and look at China, which are arguably still trying to get out of recession, still aren't out of recession.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My gut kill is it has to work its way out, that eventually it has to get north to 50 and it has to keep growing so that the fact that it's in trouble now doesn't lead me to believe there's going to be a recession leads me to believe that prices are going to keep falling until you get more activity in the area.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The manufacturing rebound. And it's still, I mean, all three, the United States, Europe, and China, all three of their ISMs are still below 50. They're not at the bottom anymore, but they're not above 50. So, I mean, you can hardly call that a recovery when all of them are still telling you, I'm shrinking, I'm just shrinking less quickly than I was shrinking before. And yes, India is at 60 and blah, blah, blah. I mean, there are places are growing, but they're not big enough to offset the US, China, and Europe collectively. So if that manufacturing sector stays dwaddling,”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I'm sure I'm moving back. Exactly. And so, I mean, it looks to me like this economy is doing a very good job of stretching. Further and further. And so now if I'm going to look for a problem, I'm looking back at my manufacturing cycle not doing what I thought because I thought I would rise and be at a peak sometime late this year and now it's August so we're getting into late this year and it's nowhere's it didn't get off the ground. What did it get?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And credit conditions outside of the banking market really are very loose. You're absolutely right about the growth in bank credit, but in private credit and high yield bonds and CLOs, the biggest refinancing history is what I've heard in CLOs and then high yields is refinancing. And maturity wall of 2024 is now the maturity wall of 2025. 2036. It keeps on moving back.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, my biggest concern in that arena is that ever since SBB, you had a slowdown in bank lending, and it went almost down to 1%. It's come back now it's like 3%. But 3% is not aggressive bank lending. And banks are lending at 3%, then over time you would think nominal growth in the economy would trend towards 3%, and that's a problem. But it's not, right? I mean, if the Fed's right on inflation is going to be 2% and GDP now is right on growth is going to be 2%. Should it be five? Okay, but the problem is if the Fed sends that signal by easing the first time, the market will assume they're going to go. And credit, yeah.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. A lot of stability quits are down, right? I mean, it's a lot of stability in the labor market now. And people are interpreting going from 80 miles an hour to the speed limit. As painfully slow. And that's what it feels like on the highway, too, when you see a cop and you hit the brakes to come down. It feels like you're going painfully slow, but you're not. You're going at 55 miles.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They keep telling us that profits are fine. I mean, I don't just mean magnificent seven. I mean, the rest of companies are still telling us that profits are fine. Proprietor's income is a little soft. Makes me nervous about small businesses because I think small businesses like small consumers or low-income consumers are being squeezed harder because it's harder for them to deal with. They don't get to use AI, right? They don't have the scale. They don't have the ability to adopt that technology the same way the big companies do. They're more exposed to immigration. They're more exposed to imports because of competition. So there's signs that the low end of the business is being squeezed. But is he cutting back on hiring? And if IB just came out, no, they're still hiring.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. I mean, effectively, if you think about what happened in 2020 in particular, unemployed people and we were placed 100% of their income. So they weren't truly unemployed. I mean, they were not in producing, but they weren't unemployed. And so they went on to consume as much as they did before. But the fact that they weren't producing was the problem. And that's why the prices eventually spiked. I mean, that's why the inflation eventually showed through. First, it was in assets and then it was in goods and services. It was completely predictable that this was going to happen. I don't know why people acted so shocked when it did. Now you're on the backside of that and the inflation is coming down. Consumers are making rational decisions not to pay to the higher price things and they're buying cheaper things. And sales of the cheaper things are better and sales of the expensive things are worse and that's the way a capitalist economy is supposed to work. But the bosses.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The determined allocation of their income, but their income is determined by their boss, and So, I want to know what their boss thinks. I don't care what the consumer thinks. The amount of fluctuation in the consumer from him spending 100% of his income or 97% of his income, that's important, but it's much more important his boss fires him or not and his income goes to zero or to fifty percent with unemployment insurance. So What will cause the boss to fire? Because right now every day I tell guys of my work, yes, the low end of the American consumer is being squeezed. But that's his lot in life is to be squeezed all the time by businesses which are trying to extract more from him in prices and pay him less and squeeze him.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. So, what's the reward to saying there's not? Then the traders will trade harder. You don't have to give any influence to get traders to trade hard. I mean, they're wired that way. That's why they're traders. And so I think there's just a selection bias that economists tend to be more conservative, more cautious just because of the, you know, the nature of what their job entails at most firms where they're in the strategy group or in the budgeting groups, et cetera. But I also think there's a tendency to focus on the consumer in the United States because he's 70%. And my point to people is consumers don't determine their income.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Economics is called the dismal science for reason. Economists are not alpha male traders, they are staff agents at most industries, and their job is to, like I got hired by my boss, said Michael, your job is to keep the train on the tracks. I'm not supposed to drive the train. I'm not supposed to, I'm just supposed to warn them when something's coming. And if your job is to warn people that things are coming, you're like the weatherman, right? I mean, so there might be rain on Tuesday. There might be rain on Wednesday. So there's a tendency to be protective because”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I had to ask you about data, you said you focus on the hard data. What is soft data? Would you include things like sentiment surveys, consumer sentiment? Sure, things like the ISM, things where it's 51, 40. If it's good, it's 51 or 55, it's bad, it's 49 or 44 because so much of that soft data, particularly thinking about PMIs and ISM, were in 48 and 47 in 2022, and we did not have a recession. You were right. People who are worried about that were wrong. The recession uses could be right right now. But I'm saying with regard to the 2022 recession case and the 2023 recession case is wrong. It's unsealed. I'm sorry. But 2024, 2025, it's a live story. But why do you think that data was so pessimistic? And why do you think people interpreting that pessimistic data? Why was there pessimistic take wrong?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Get those minimum wages more money. But again, I'm trying to weigh the winners and the losers, and there's still more winners in the US. We can get into a serious argument about concentration of those winners. But the fact that they're winning is still keeping the US economy stronger than the consensus seems to think and the Fed not lowering interest rates as fast as the consensus should think. So if I'm betting interest rates, which is a large part of what all this goes directed towards, I think interest rates stay higher, longer, not as high for as long as I thought three months ago, but still much higher for much longer than is currently priced into the year dollar.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pieces than there are in the ranch or what he charges for the animal, which right now is high, but that's a supply and demand issue that's unique to that industry right now. That's not why the prices are high. The prices are high because these two groups, the Packers and the grocery stores, were able to raise prices. And frankly, the restaurants had to raise prices because minimum wage rules and all these kind of things, they had to pass along the price increases. Yes, we're unhappy. We're happy with higher minimum wages. We're unhappy that we have to pay people.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, the cattle price you're looking at is the price of the animal at the ranch, right? It's not the price that's paid. Yeah, it's not the price that's paid at the grocery store. And you've got the rancher is an independent price taker. There's a lot of them. Then he sends it to a packer, which is a monopolist oligopolist. And then that monopolist oligopolist deals with a grocery store, which is a monopolist oligopolist. So there's a lot more problem in...”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. You got a balance. All these stories about, oh, there's a recession coming because Joe, that's, I'm sorry, but media, this is what media does, right? Because media has to put out a story every day. So there's a story and it's a story about something that will get eyeballs and will get eyeballs is complaining about grocery prices. So you see a lot of stories about that. Does that mean that's really a problem? And that's why you got to look at hard data to see sometimes if that is in fact what's going on. Restaurant sales are going out and people are going back to eating at home. I work in the food industry. It's very visible that this capital prices.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, in an economy, somebody's going to be in trouble and somebody's not going to be in trouble. And some people are going to be in trouble.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that's just because the way rent works where you roll over, and in some markets, rents aren't going up. It's me like New York City rents are going up. I'm wet. Yeah. So...”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm saying in the moment you're getting point twos and you're getting 0.3s or 0.4s on wages. So real wages are still rising. There's still buying power there. It's not evenly distributed. I mean, there's more buying power at the top. There's less buying power at the bottom. And the inflation is not evenly distributed. I mean, the guy who has to pay rent, which is still going up five, that's higher than his, if he's just getting four and his rent is five, that could be a third of his income, right? And it's eating into him. So that's a problem. And we see behaviors that tell us that rent is a problem. People are moving back in with mom and dad. They're doubling up, they're things like that.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes Yes. But now they're at levels that are higher than pre-COVID. They're not as high as during a great financial crisis. But there are clear signs that the consumer is feeling pain. We see this in the earnings reports, that they're trading down from Walmart to Dollar General and Macy's to Walmart, et cetera, et cetera. What's squeezing them? They'll tell you it's groceries. Look at those numbers on the CPI. It's not food inflation anymore. It was in 22. It was food prices. So Harvey was saying the other day, he said, prices are not falling, inflation is falling. Yes, right? Prices are still high. So it's first derivative, second derivative issue. And the streets fixate you're going second derivatives, right? Because that's how you make your money.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People say that, but we know that consumers are being squeezed. We know that credit card usage was exploding until they used so much of it in the last four months it stopped because they're tapped out. But credit card”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it was 480% or something, yeah, But what do you make of these incredible lags between, I forget the name, but current rental, like the Zillow index would show what's going on on the ground versus the segments within the CPI for rent and owner's equivalent rent, where I believe they have segments where it does quite lag. And Powell's been asked about this lag and people have been saying the real rent has been way lower. In fact, there's rental deflation we're going to see in the data. We're going to see it in the data. And then argument makes sense to me, but just so far we haven't seen any official data.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's 485% or something, yeah. Yeah, it's like four, eight or five for rank and services, core services X energy is still, I believe, is a four handle.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rent went back up this latest CPI went back up to a point four. There was a 0.2 last month, it went back up to 0.4. Is it going down? It's a 0.4 you”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it could, but it's not, right? And it's not because firms are charging 4% and people are paying 4%. So why would you? You know, just because.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think inflation is around two and a half But it's an interesting two and a half because it used to be two and it was zero to negative one for goods and it was three for services. So services are about two-thirds, so two-thirds of three is two. So if goods are zero, then you're right at two. And if goods are under, then the inflation rate's actually below two and at once per decade, right? Now you're looking at two and a half good deflations like two and service inflation is still high four, right? And so if you want to get to two, either you got to have continued goods deflation, not just no inflation. You got to have continued goods deflation. How do you get that? You got to go to somebody cheaper and cheaper either means you're squeezing US labor or you're importing by squeezing. But why can't”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What do you think? Inflation peaked at, I believe, 9.1% for CPI and now at 2.9%. Is that accurate? Is disinflation greater or less? Has the fallen inflation? Is it accurate? Is it the true inflation rate lower? Is it 2.5%? Because rent has been lagging.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you do, but you also often see it when there's a major storm. And there was. So I'll wait to see the data after the major storm goes through. I also, you know, the gap between the payroll and the household numbers is so huge. And You got to decide which number you believe in. And if you believe in the 4.3, then again, I need to know where. I need to know which groups are seeing the other pluger rate rise even faster than the half percent. And I'm worried about seasonals. I'm worried about seasonals in a lot of areas of the world today because the seasonals got all screwed up during COVID. And so is inflation slowing down or is it just a new seasonal where it's higher in January, February, and lower in January. What do you think?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It may be, and it may be their prices are getting to where they need to sell more to the United States. That all gets very complex. And this is what I do for a living, but there are some things you can't answer every time. I don't see how the United States economy gets into trouble right ahead of itself. Stock markets tell me that companies are fine. The data tells me that profits are fine, not booming, but they're fine, and businesses don't lay off until they've been losing money for why they absorb it for a while. So I don't see a recession in the United States in the next year easily and maybe two.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the United States should go to countries that are not doing trade with China and grow those places, and then we'll be able to break China. Name one. Name one country in the world where China is not the largest or the second largest trade partner. I mean, they just was an article in the paper saying, for the first time, the United States is now the biggest trade partner with Germany again. And it is, if you consider adding imports and exports. But if you just look at exports, China is still far and away, the largest. Germany's our biggest trade partner because we've started buying more imports from Germany. That's not really what you were looking for when you said you would have. And maybe it's because...”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The big three GM force back in the day. That competition. They were fighting over the consumer's dollar and who got to keep it. The corporation or the union. We're doing the same thing. We're looking at the world. We're splitting it up. And how much does the United States get to keep and how much does China get to keep? And China's kind of a labor, right? So, what happened with the big three in the UAW is the big three went to states where there were no unions and they worked with governments in those states and they grew. Their footprint there and essentially they broke the union.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People want to make it that way because now they want the world to split up in Russia, China, Iran, and the rest of us. But that's not the way it is. I mean, Chinese are everywhere. It's much more alike the UAW and the big three. They exist in the same unit. They compete for the same. What do you mean by the big three?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All the new factories in Bangladesh are Chinese. All the new factories in Vietnam are, if not Chinese owned, Chinese, or dependent on Chinese trade to establish them. I mean, our trade deficit with China is going down, but our trade deficit with Vietnam is exploding. If you add the two together, it's the same as it used to be. It's just trans shipping our trade definition with Mexico's growing. Why? Because the Chinese have significant investments in Mexico. So, if you want to fight the Chinese to better understand what it is they're doing and how they're doing it, I tell people you cannot look at the competition between the United States and China like you looked at the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Clearly, see Chinese have more influence than Americans would like them to have. I mean, our new friends in Asia, the Philippines. And the Chinese are still the biggest trade part of the Philippines and growing bigger every day. Same with Malaysia, same with Indonesia, same with all the countries in the ASEAN, all the countries of South Asia. That's the part of the world that's growing 5% now because that's the part of the world that's taking over from China. And it's not because it's owned by Germans or French or Americans. It's owned by Chinese.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe it is, but it's still a trillion dollars and it scares me that somebody's investing a trillion dollars a year outside their borders, buying friends, buying influence. That's way more influence than their eighteen trillion dollars con. I mean, most of their eighteen trillion dollar economy is domestic, right? So, I mean, how big is our exports, even if it's 20%, which is not the right number, but even if it was 20%, it's just not as big an impact as a trillion dollars in purchase of assets. Are they leveraged? How much end points can you exude with that?”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Never closed. I mean, before COVID, I went to South Africa and there was an environmental reserve. It's basically a zoo, and they had the penguins. And they were having some environmental problems with the penguins. Like they were running out of fish. And I'm like, what's wrong with the penguins? I said South Africa government sold the fishing rates to China. And so China is investing dollars massively in the rest of the world, but you're saying it's just nowhere near enough to equal the whole.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. And where is it going? And the fact that you can't see it is frankly terrifying to me because something should be showing up on somebody's radar and I should be. And I asked this question why? And we have pretty good cadre of friends who should be saying these things. And I just don't get any feedback that says people, oh, it's the Belt Road. I mean, look, the Belt and Road was never close to a trillion dollars.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. And that's my problem here before COVID, they were running a $400 billion trade surplus during COVID, it went to six, then it went to eight, and now it's just under a trillion. And that's a year. That's not a total amount. That year, and this has been going on now for two years now, they've run a trillion dollar trade surplus. So there was a book written not too long ago about the Chinese Solidarity Wealth funds. And Brad Seltzer had... He's done some great work looking at their trade surplus and where it's going. It's looking like there's a massive sovereign wealth fund multiple times the size of Norway plus Saudi Arabia plus the UAE.”
2024-08-26 · Forward Guidance · Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT