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Michael Ronan

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2016-08-26
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2016-08-26
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  1. We touched on esports a bit before, and the amount of interest in viewing on that and the ability to aggregate an audience is absolutely staggering. It's getting monetized today at about a dollar, maybe $2 per consumer who has an interest, whereas the NFL is at $60, $70. Per consumer has an interest in the sport. So there's just enormous upside. And that's a true global business. So I think we'll see that.

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  2. Augmented way, you can actually see the show being played inside your living room. There are very, very exciting things around sports and live content going back to that category of premium content that can happen around that, and that's clearly an area. The last point on that is it touches probably the most the gaming industry, the online games. That's a community that is tens of millions of people that tends to adopt quickly to technological change.

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  3. I think people are paying attention, but paying attention actually seeing results are two different things. Virtual reality and augmented reality. Huge growth areas that I think there's a raging debate on how much hype versus reality, to use that word. Are we going to see in that domain? But there's tremendous amount of capital going from the venture investment side into very, very interesting and promising startup companies and more than startup companies. Imagine sitting at the Oscars or being able to sit in your living room and think without actually having to go to Los Angeles and pay thousands of dollars for that privilege. Of course, those who can will always do that. But those who can't, are they going to pay a premium for a live event just like they pay for boxing if it's VR or AR, it's one thing to see it virtually. It may be that there's some things you can see in an

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  4. Interestingly, some of the sports leagues have been ahead of the Curbs there in terms of thinking about this. We've talked about a lot of the trends that are emerging. What over the next four or five years might we see develop in this space that people aren't paying enough attention to?

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  5. And what that opportunity is, and to the extent they can leverage and utilize existing IP or content, it's a terrific opportunity. What is interesting though, Jake, is that four or five years ago, I think there was a view you'd just take US English language content and pump it around the globe, you can monetize it. Some, you can still do that, but we're increasingly seeing that in each individual market you need to customize. And there's cost associated with that for large US players, and there's opportunity associated with that for more local players. Interestingly, some of the

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  6. I think in the emerging markets, the benefit is you don't have to do what we've done in this country for the last 100, 125 years in terms of you need the infrastructure, but you have an ability to actually get to consumer and develop those consumer relationships, which are incredibly powerful relatively more efficiently than you have in this country. And so from a media content perspective, these companies are incredibly bullish on what that opportunity is. I think the key question, again, is what's the price point? The cost of distribution or delivery, and how much disposable capital is there really in these markets. And as you've seen in this country, and this is part of what the pressure is on so many of these distributors and the content companies, which is the consumers pretty much tapped out in terms of what they're spending on media as a percent of their disposable income. And so there's a real cap and there's a real tension point, which is flowing out in this country. But all the media companies I spend time with are extraordinarily bullish in terms of what they can do globally and internationally.

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  7. We talk mostly about the United States, although as we talked about the social media platforms, they're truly global. What are some of the biggest emerging markets where we're going to see some of this play out? And what are technologies that will provide greater access in some of those countries?

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  8. Which doesn't need it arguably to the wireless industry, which, as we just said, is running out of room every day just because of the exponential growth. And the government, and this is two or three FCC administrations in a row that have been working on it all the way to the current one, which is overseeing it, has engineered a very complex and very sophisticated and never been done before two-way auction system to find the marketplace between the broadcast industry that will be getting paid from the wireless industry for the transition of bandwidth from one to the other. And we're in an experiment. We're in the middle of it right now. It hasn't been done yet. It seems to be moving along nicely, but it's not done yet when it's going to be done. It's going to enable that 5G transition and the new sets of services.

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  9. The really interesting thing about this auction is the government is just an intermediary. All the auctions to date were the government giving the private sector license to use its spectrum that belongs to the government. This is an auction where the government is brokering the transfer of spectrum between the broadcast industry, the rabbit ears, which doesn't.

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  10. So the FCC periodically auctions off spectrum, doesn't get a lot of attention outside usually Washington and this industry, but the dynamic you're describing, the industry must be paying very close attention to the latest round of auctions.

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  11. 5G is still yet to be defined, just as 4G was several years ago. Some people will remember that there was controversy on who had real 4G versus not real 4G. We're entering that period of time probably in the next year or two. What 5G will do is yet again disrupt the current landscape in enabling what I just talked about. So the ability to watch high definition content and do that on the go without thinking what is my mobile plan for this month. It's included because 5G enables it to be included because 5G makes broadband cheap. That is the promise of 5G and it requires a tremendous amount of airwaves which spectrum which the big companies are buying and it requires a tremendous amount of innovation and investment in fiber into the tower. So the wireless companies are in essentially an arms

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  12. All going to be about not the physics of the service, but the content of the service. And the ability for a family or a couple or individual in the US to customize not just the number of minutes which are going away, there's no more the concept is gone, and not just the gigabytes or megabytes, but the content that they'll be getting across physical wireless at home, out of home, from their service provider.

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  13. But also demanded an incredible wave of capital investment. Steve Jobs, who we had the honor and privilege to be working with as he entered the industry, was thinking about whether the industry will be ready and was thinking about how he could help the industry get ready for what he knew is going to be the outcome of that innovation. And it turned out to be even more than predicted. And they ended up being able to sustain it, frankly, partially also because we've had this very accommodating capital availability period of time. Again, that's changing and data has been commoditized. Most people probably don't even know what their data plan is. They just know that they're getting just enough and the differentiation between the large players is minimal these days and the ability to sell a competitive service at a premium has diminished. The next cycle, and we've just touched on it from a couple of different directions, is

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  14. It's the existential issue for the telecom companies. And we've talked a little bit at the beginning about regulation and the ability to get what they view as fair pricing for the capital they put in. Each one of the large telcos, whether it's the AT&Ts or Verizons or T-Mobils, or the cable guys for their cable business, put many, many billions of dollars to the ground or to the air buying spectrum or investing in infrastructure. And they do that five years, ten years ahead of what would be the cycle, then it's going to be consumed. So they make predictions on their ability to price and service customers. The iPhone introduction about 10 years ago was one of the best things that happened to the wireless industry. It enabled a whole new wave of pricing.

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  15. So in the telecom space, how are companies thinking about their CapEx? People are demanding more and more bandwidth. How are they thinking about new technologies emerging? What pressures their incumbent businesses face?

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  16. There's going to be that investment content. And I think what we're seeing is that it spurred more and more innovation, more investment. And the amount of dollars that are going into trying to find some of these individuals, be it people who are doing eight-second clips or eight-minute clips or 80-minute documentaries, it's out there. And so it's incredibly fertile opportunity for content creators and creative people who are out there have a point of view on something that may work in terms of entertaining the broader public.

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  17. You're seeing on the content creation side from a video content is right before your ability to develop took enormous dollars and investment. And you still have the big guys spending tens of billions of dollars on original content. But what you see now is some kid with a website and an interesting idea can become an international sensation almost overnight. And the ability to become that star nurture it, curate it, expand it, and then ultimately monetize it. It's never been a better opportunity out there. So it's enormously empowering. I think a lot of people talked about if we get rid of the bundle or get rid of some of these oligopoly distribution channels.

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  18. and by and large across multiple services and finding their way around them they'll get what they need and what they want in music or in this case in video and out of their overall disposable income they'll probably spend about the same amount of money that we did they'll just spend it differently to get what they need where they need it and how they need to get it

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  19. And we have Taylor Swift, and the answer is, well, content continues to be developed, whether it gets monetized or not. And as the industry and technology has shifted, we're beginning to see a, for the first time this year, 2015 into 16, a leveling off of declines of dollars attributed to music. In the beginning, potentially of a growth cycle again of that industry. And it should give people confidence that in, if you now analogize this to what we talked about in video and the declines, court cutting, declines of spending on TV at home, et cetera, et cetera. You have a generation now that is growing in our households, our kids that are probably never pay what we used to pay for some of these services. But as they mature into consumers that pay for their own content, they'll find ways of consuming what they need to consume. And they generally will be law-abiding citizens that will find their way into the new service.

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  20. Yeah, Jake, it's interesting to learn from it, although obviously video and audio are different and are consumed differently. But by and large, the music industry started being disrupted in the late 90s with Napster and a 30 or 40 billion industry started declining fast. And what was still a 2G, you know, no iPhone world, but Napster and online, et cetera. The industry couldn't find a way to navigate itself out of that and just generally experienced 10 or 15 years of declines as younger generations were beginning to be accustomed to consuming music for free. And if you talk to industry insiders five or ten years ago, 10 or 15 years ago, privately, not publicly, the fear was, are we just now growing into a free music world where artists will never get paid for the content, will never see therefore the same stardom of Michael Jackson's and princes of

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  21. And Michael, you mentioned one industry that's really been through a lot of this already is the music industry. So what have we learned since we've seen actually more than a generation of people go through the various iterations that the music industry went through?

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  22. Talk about cord cutting where I think a year or so ago there was this concern gosh it was just going to Completely accelerate is there's real value in the bundle and I think we are starting to see that because if you take the skinny bundle and then tried to layer in other content choices, you can start to get to price points that get very expensive very quickly. And I think we all probably know if we're not doing it ourselves, where you have a situation where you're actually probably paying for the same content two or three different times through different applications. And so I think all that needs to get worked out. But I think it's just broadly it's more experimentation, the ability to get more stickiness, maintain that consumer relationship and provide consumer with more choice.

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  23. But sports content live sports content has been held back from being included in the vast, vast majority of these, at least in scale. There may be select individual channels that have been in it, but that's been holding the broader bundle together. But it's really an opportunity for somebody who wants just core channels, very limited choice to subscribe and pay a much lower rate. And so it's really been driven by consumer choice and what the opportunity is around that. Now it's creating some angst among traditional content providers who are used to getting paid four channels that may be ranked 50 or 75 in the broader ecosystem of, gosh, how do we get our content into this skinny bundle? And so I think there's a lot of focus on that. It's not clear it's been a real success, but there are many in the millions, subscribers who are at least trialing that. Some go in, come back out, try different packages. What is interesting though, and I think this is in defense of the broader bundle where we

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  24. Yeah, it's interesting. We should talk about sports and is that included or is it not? Because I think you can make an argument if you didn't have live sports, the entire bundle would probably unravel much, much faster. And so the sports has been held back.

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  25. I want to make just one more comment of that. I do think people are ignoring the fact that we're in year five, six, seven of an economic recovery fueled by unprecedented liquid negative interest rate environment. It helps a lot that that's the context for people making capital decisions on how much to spend on advertising and where to allocate the advertising. When money is, quote unquote, free, you can spend $450 million on 10 games and it's not necessarily the framework that they admit to, but it's the framework that they revert to. We will likely see a different economic environment just by, this is not a prediction, this is just generally a statement of the obvious. At some point we will have a negative cycle and money will be less free and growth will be more anemic even than what we have today. That will force a faster move from traditional

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  26. Up because it's tied into this bundle concept which has been terrific for everybody. But I think if you started out today, this certainly wouldn't be the distribution model that you'd have in terms of going forward.

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  27. Economy? Well, I think people are trying to figure out. I think investors are trying to figure out because you have these double digit decline in ratings on traditional broadcast cable television, quarter over quarter, year over year, pretty consistently now for the last four or five quarters. And you have advertising, which has continued to grow upfront this year sounded like it was reasonably strong. Companies have good numbers coming out of that. And so I think it does show the power of what some of that content is. But businesses don't tend to sustain that kind of double digit negative growth and then double digit potential top line advertising growth offsets it. So I think that's a more micro point that they're clearly focusing on. Ratings, right? Where do ratings kind of bottom out? Is there a bottom or is this just going to be the newspaper industry where it's just this kind of slow slide down? People are starting to look at some of the lower value content, so channels, I don't know if it's 25 through 500 or 50 through 500, but where does that content ultimately end?

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  28. Exactly, and it's always okay, I got a secular trend down of minus 5 or minus 10 or minus 15%. Your tongue me, you also have a secular up of up 100%, but it's really small. When do the lines intersect and when can I buy at the end of the day at a multiple and attractive investment that through it all is actually growing? And I think that's what investors are going to continue to look for and basically price effectively relative value. Am I buying something at a cash flow multiple that on balance has a better secular story than the other guy at the same multiple?

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  29. I think the cord cutting argument has not gone away. I think investors continue to read the tea leaves and try and understand not just cord cutting, but secular winds, whether they're blowing the right way or the wrong way. And each media conglomerate is exposed to those in different ways. The cable companies have their own secular issues, which obviously feed into that, which is what we just talked about. Screen time at home versus screen time on the go and the ability to price content and not get disconnected by the consumer. That's still out there. The investors are looking for the mix of those secular trends versus who has the exposure to the growth areas that we're talking about. And we've seen this in the music space in the last 10 years because music was the first one to kind of get effectively disrupted. It's always music.

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  30. Talk about a little bit about what investors are looking for right now. Last year, at this time, there was a big Brujaha with the traditional media companies. You saw a little slippage, a little evidence of cord cutting. They're once again reporting second quarter results. Those concerns seem to have abated in the short term. But what should we be looking for as the big TMT companies report into the second half of the year?

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  31. I think you're increasingly just going to see customized content get developed for these alternative distribution. So it's not just taking the bottom half of our content, which we have that we really can't monetize and pushing it out there. And so you're starting to see more and more of that. And I think there are 20 plus large traditional media companies that are doing much more of that customized content. You need size, you need scale, you need real personalities and certainly unique differentiated content to be in a position to try to do some of that customization.

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  32. But at the same time, they're giving it away just so they can get the eyeballs that the tech companies have aggregated. Well, you know, Jake, to some extent, yes, but to echo what Dave is saying, you asked, what is the valuable content today? They're giving away stuff that has become commoditized. There are still tens of millions of Americans that sit in front of the TV for three or four hours a day, but that number is declining, not increasing. And the interesting demo is the one that is increasing exponentially, and that's the young generation that is attracted to short, live, celebrity-driven, sports driven, news-driven.

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  33. Not to say it's easy to do, but it's sure a lot easier to do than building the infrastructure on a global basis for some of the legacy players. And so I think there's that inherent tension between how do you utilize that distribution channel, to Michael's point, how do you get paid for it? Can you get paid for it versus do we continue to just put enormous amounts of capital and broadband's been enormously helpful to the traditional telecom providers? And it's been enormously powerful and captive. I know we'll talk about wireless and some of the advancements there as we go forward. If you're a media company, it's how do we, and we've seen this in publishing for quite some time, how do you keep that relationship with the consumer? How do you keep from losing the value of that relationship to Facebook or Snapchat, whatever the social media platform is? And so that's part of the real tension. I think that's why you finally seen a lot of the traditional media companies starting to push out more and more content, realizing that they've got to have a real role. But at the same time, they're giving it away.

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  34. Value creation that's how you can drive audience. And back to some of Michael's comments just around what the tech guys are doing. They have an ability to aggregate just enormous audience. As a large cable company with 20 or 25 million subscribers, To date, that's kind of been their addressable market, right? They have very high penetration. Whereas you have a Facebook or a Twitter or Snapchat or any of these others, they have the ability to not only domestically aggregate enormous audience, but it's a global business. And so you almost have a global distribution platform.

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  35. Think we went through that era back in the 90s where More content was good content, and there was a view that if you had that content, it would give you leverage against the distribution. I think we're in a world today, and this is important. Seen as much consolidation among the content guys. We'll come back and talk about some examples. But absent really differentiated unique content, sports content, movie content, content that you can Cross multiple distribution platforms, you just haven't seen that consolidation. And so, what you are seeing is people are really trying to focus on what is that differentiated content, because that's how you can really

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  36. It's not yet at a stage of sorts between them and some of the studios, so their production deals and distribution deals and investments. But by and large, there's more competition than cooperation between them and the traditional ones. The interesting thing to watch is that Titans are going to clash in different parts of the ecosystem and try to build, as Dave said, really compelling consumer offering that will give you what you want, where you want it, and the pieces that you care about the most quickly, and whoever is able to do that in a cost-effective way will be the winner. So you mentioned some of the big consolidation. We saw Verizon pick up Yahoo. We saw them also by AOL. What does that say about what's going on in the industry? The last time there was a big push for content was back in the late 90s, that cycle ended very quickly in the early 2000s, but we're back at it again where people are throwing pretty big amounts of money at content providers.

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  37. The bandwidth in different ways for different types of content, or do consumers get to have the same type of access to everything effectively free or for flat fees, if you will? And so those different points of tension will continue to be there for the foreseeable future. The interesting things that are evolving are around that. So YouTube is now an $80 billion company inside Google. It's building an in-house content powerhouse. Amazon is becoming a very large media company. Obviously Netflix is already there. They're spending lots of money on production. It went from a project or two, but now they're really becoming major players in this space. Yep.

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  38. Yeah, it's been a very, very large secular change the last 10 years. And if you measure the market caps and the transition market caps from the traditional telcos and cable companies towards the apples and Googles of the world, it's been mind-blowing. And the tension is there. So the media companies are saying you're using our media, using our content that we've paid a lot of money to develop, and you're monetizing it with advertising dollars that we see a very small portion of. So the traditional model for a media and a telecom company to monetize the big risks that they're taking on content has been disrupted. And there's a lot of tension around that. The second axis of tension is the net neutrality part, which is as the distributors of content are fighting to continue to be able to invest and get paid for that investment. Can they throttle up or down? Can they monetize?

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  39. Especially for a demographic that's accustomed to getting things for free or at least very cheaply. The tech companies obviously are playing a much bigger role in the space and they've upended a lot of what the traditional media companies have done for years. What are some of the tensions that we're seeing between the larger players both in the tech space and the telecom space and the media space? Where are some of the more interesting partnerships that are emerging too?

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  40. Trying not to be disrupted. Your ability to get access to content, differentiated content on different platforms, the platform you want and the way you want it and the context you want at the time you want, it's absolutely terrific. The pressure that puts on. Media companies is you're disrupting your existing business model, or you're trying to disrupt your existing business model, but at the same point, how do you monetize those kind of new distribution avenues or potential revenues?

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  41. Thank you, Chick. Thanks for having us. So, you talk to a lot of clients in this space, CEOs, CFOs. What are you hearing from your clients today, given all that's happening? Well, we've had a mixed start for the year after a very, very strong 2015 where we've seen a lot of consolidation, a lot of M&A activity. The year started slow and with a lot of risk averseness by our clients. That has changed the last several months as our clients realize that with the current environment, the current interest rates and the ability to transact in size, despite the volatility and despite the political uncertainty, there's a lot of appetite for risk. Our clients are focused on continued growth, on finding ways to offset secular declines in some of their businesses, on taking advantage of incredibly attractive costs of capital, and trying to continue to grow and transact as long as the music keeps playing. And so our clients around the world are incredibly engaged and active and are looking for opportunities.

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