YouSaid · the spoken record

Michael Selig

lines on the record: 48
first: 2026-02-12
most recent: 2026-02-12
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I don't view it that way. I do think our derivatives markets are a separate area within. Government and within the law, as opposed to the state gambling, The rules and requirements that govern a state casino are just very different. They can do a lot different things than what a regulated futures exchange can do. And so I do think there's some give and take some for sure limitation on the age piece. But look, you can serve alcohol in a casino and allow people to bet on sports. You can't do that necessarily at a digital exchange. Maybe somebody's got a beer on the side. But I do think there's a lot of different restrictions in a different environment in which people are trading. So it's not quite apple stapples.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have got a lot of authority to regulate our participants. I think there's sometimes a real need for Congress, I mean to the extent, as you all mentioned, if you really want to set some sort of more paternalistic rule around you have to be 18 or 21 to participate in the markets, that sort of thing, sure, you can talk to Congress about with respect to the more nuanced pieces of how we regulate the markets, that's stuff that we handle. It's not typically baked into statute. We go through our notice and comment process and get input from the public on those sorts of things. So I don't necessarily think you need to kick everything to Congress within the details, but it certainly could be something that people.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I think part of that's the mission. We are really interested in making sure that these markets flourish here in the United States. It's an exciting time. Many people are interested in being able to contribute to that effort. We're really, as I said earlier, setting new market structure for this asset class as well as for blockchain-based markets. And a lot of the things that needed to be fixed in the wake of Dodd-Frank that frankly were never fixed. So I think it's in part mission, in part people that are willing to serve and come in and maybe they don't get the salary that they get in the private sector. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. They get a lot of value out of being working for the government.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, to the extent there are areas where we need additional staff, we are evaluating based on competence and the highest quality. We do not want to just bring on bodies, to bring on bodies. We're making sure that we're bringing on the right people for the roles. And in many cases, we are very well staffed. I think there are some needs that we're looking to fill out. But again, it's very much akin to hiring at a private company or looking to bring on the best and the brightest who really want to help revitalize the agency fill out needs for the agency. And we are, as I mentioned earlier, relying a lot on technology as well because there's just so much that many years ago really had to be done manually that can be done very quickly through new technologies.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that's a question for society as a whole and for Congress, right? I mean, to the extent we don't want a 19-year-old trading NVIDIA stock options either, that's something that you can talk to Congress about. But the reality is that today we allow 18 plus in our financial markets. And there's responsibility associated with that. They have to go through a broker in many cases. There is this nuance of the non-intermediated model, but there's screening as well to be able to access those markets. And so we do have standards. We do have rules. everything's done in accordance with an exchange rulebook and we enforce that and we are policing those markets but i think this this more paternalistic question of what age should be the the age to be able to participate in the markets these people can be drafted go off to war and so a question of whether they can trade uh options on you know the outcome of the super bowl you know i think that's not really for the regulator to decide”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Platforms that are offering products that may have some similar economic attributes, but the details do matter, right? As I mentioned, you have to go through a clearinghouse. The products can be offset. You can get in and out of your position.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there's a great law journal article by Professor Hazen, who's a securities law professor. This must have been written in the early 2000s, but it was before the financial crisis comparing derivatives, futures contracts, securities, insurance products, gambling. These are all products that you can take similar economic positions in, but they have different legal treatment. And it's because the products are structured in different ways. So an insurance contract could be structured very similarly to a credit default swap, but you have an insurable interest. So the details do matter, and we are looking at that. So it's not the case that we're going into the casinos and saying you're offering legal off exchange swaps, but if the products are structured as swaps, then we have authority there. And so many of these.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The latter seems highly at risk of being susceptible to manipulation, which we do have authority to reject. I think with other categories, assassination and the like, there is authority within our statute to prohibit. So we would exercise that authority. There's certain areas where we certainly would not.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Countries, there's different rules around offering directly in or solicitation, reverse solicitation, all of that. So we're certainly aware of that. We're thinking about it. We want to set really clear and kind of best in class standards for U.S. markets”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, if there's demand for these products, it's definitely something that we'll consider and look at. Right now, the overwhelming demand's been in the crypto space. We've seen some demand in precious metals, gold, silver. We have to consider the susceptibility of each contract to manipulation. So there might be unique considerations around a contract that doesn't have a physical delivery date. For example, pork bellies or other things. And that can create issues within the supply and liquidity for the futures contracts. So something we're thinking about, we're definitely excited about all this innovation. It's been too long that this stuff is only developed offshore and we really want to bring it back with clear rules of the road. So it's really important that the US leads and that we set the standard that other countries are going to follow rather than just allow this stuff to flourish offshore with potentially less regulation. As you all know, when you offer into very”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Courts, I think it's really important to have more baked into the statute than not. And so we're hopeful that we'll get a statute in place.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, thanks to the president's leadership, I really do think we're at a critical moment where we've got genius now as law, regulation by enforcement's done. We've got the Clarity Act that's really on the precipice. I think there's a few issues that are being ironed out actually as we speak. I know there's a meeting today. I'm more hopeful that that's going to get done. I think that's going to set a really future-proof framework for crypto here in the US. We can't allow European countries and others to lead in this area without US involvement and leadership. And so we're committed to getting that done. I think we've got a really great bill that's almost at the finish line. If it doesn't get done, look, I think there's a lot of authority that the agencies have, but it's important with Loper Bright and some of the case law that takes a little bit of the agency's discretion over nuances in the statute and puts that back to Congress and the”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We adhere to the law. I mean, the commodity exchange act is our authorizing statute. We act in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act and we have very strict ethics and government requirements. And as does, I think everyone in this administration. So we take all of that very seriously.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“These are designated contract markets like any other. We've regulated these markets for many, many years, for decades. They have some of the most stringent regulatory requirements, as I mentioned. These are nearly $500 trillion notional markets that we regulate. We take it very seriously. We police fraud and manipulation of these markets. So I think everybody can rest assured that we are on top of protecting the markets. And we think it's great that there's a broad swath of interest in the markets.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We certainly need to think holistically about what requirements we have on different participants. So these non intermediated exchanges, and we're also seeing a lot of vertical integration with a single business owning a clearinghouse, an FCM, the broker, and the exchange. We're seeing different models where there's the non-intermediated, as I said. We don't have enough CM at all. And then you have everything in between. And so we need to think about that. We need to make sure there's consistency.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it really is this result of the way that these no action letters were handed down, as I said, many, many years ago, and this kind of regime that we have that really, my view on a lot of this stuff is that we need clear rules of the road. We need to do things through notice and comment rulemaking and actually think holistically about our markets and not focus on these little patchwork, no action letters, which unfortunately has been the rule over many years. And so that's definitely something we're thinking about. We want to set clear standards. We want stakeholders at the table to figure out what these regimes should look like. And I'm not one necessarily to say what the marketing should look like. We want to hear from participants as to what sort of marketing they think is appropriate for these markets. But we're certainly thinking about that. And there are different standards. It really is just a result of the kind of ad hoc way that regulators in the past have gone about establishing exceptions for certain things in the markets.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's one point that I think is worth double clicking on in the sense that there are standards for futures commission immersions for the brokers within our markets. And some of those standards are relic essentially of the way that the act and the regulations developed, where you have intermediation between the customer and the clearinghouse and the exchange typically in our markets. Now these no action letters that started around 2000 that were given to some of the prediction markets back then, as well as now other markets, cut out the FCM, cut out the broker. And so you had direct to the clearinghouse, direct to the exchange. And that model doesn't have all the same rules and regulations. And so something that we're thinking about is how do we make sure that we have consistent standards across both. Now, I think this question of what sort of marketing and advertising either should be able to engage in is one.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Territory trading on chain, and those worlds are going to collide. And they are, in fact, colliding today. And so having common ground between the agencies figuring out what the ground rules are and making sure that we have similar standards for decentralized finance and for digital wallets and all of that's really important because if we set incompatible standards, then it's going to be a real disservice to the market and that's going to harm all Americans.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Having the information is really important. That's the first step. And then the staffs need to come together and figure out how to create substitute compliance. So certain rules are incompatible on both sides. We need to knock those out or at least have a kind of default choice. One agency versus the other if you're a broker dealer and you're doing a very minimal amount of commodity derivatives activity, perhaps you should have a primary regulator at the SEC with some CFTC overlay to make sure that there's no gaps. So that's an important piece. I think a lot of the general crypto related issues are really calling for joint rulemaking, joint work between the agencies because we're seeing NVIDIA tokens on chain, not necessarily within the US, but I think now with the DTC, we're going to start seeing a lot more of the tokenization of public equities. And then we're also seeing Bitcoin, Ether, things that are within our.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I'm in a good position that I used to work for Chairman Atkins, but so I think we have a great relationship just getting off for the start. But a memorandum of understanding is something that we've committed to execute and we're looking to execute very soon. And that really set all the ground rules for coordination between the staffs. And so not having that in place, I think, is really hampered the two agencies because sharing information is really important. You need a framework for sharing that information. There's a lot of non-public material that is generated in each building. And so having rules for the sharing of that information is important. Having regular meetings between the staffs and coordination and sharing of market data related to registrants is really important. So if we've got dual registrants and we're collecting our own sets of information and we're ensuring that they're each complying with these two kind of separate fortresses of rules and regulations, how do we know who's doing what and what needs to be changed? And so”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That risk, and there are other participants that want to supply liquidity into those markets, make markets, or speculate.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's everybody's favorite question. Look, the CFDC and SEC are very different regulators. So the SEC is a capital markets regulator. They're focused on somebody wants to go raise capital for a great idea. Other people want to place that capital somewhere. There needs to be some regulation over that after the Great Depression. There was a lot of chaos in the markets and the agency really was a great answer to that issue. And as put a great regime in place to regulate all of that. The CFTC grew up actually at a different time. The original act was in the 30s, but later on the CFTC was established in the 70s. But the purpose of the CFDC is to regulate risk mitigation risk management. Very different area. So there are firms that, whether farmers, ranchers, energy producers, now we have data centers in the AI space, but all manner of businesses have a bunch of risks related to the inputs for their business and ongoing operations. And they need to have”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. So we are actually staffing up. So 100% we're building that out. We have adequate resources to do so, but I want to be clear that we have a very well staffed building and we are very much on top of things within, you know, these questions are around not enforcing and surveilling. I think there's a little bit of fake news there. We probably should put it up to a prediction market, but I do think that we're on top of things.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Processing applications very quickly. We just processed, I think, at a record time of 200 days. One of the more recent exchange applications. So we're really well staffed, but we're continuing to build that out and make sure that we have good people in the building who are competent and able to make sure that we protect our markets.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not, you know, they didn't leave right after I joined, right? But no, I think that it's a serious question, right? We've got to make sure that we have adequate staff to police the markets. And we do have a ton of staff throughout the country. And, you know, to the point of our Chicago office, of course, it's important that we have folks within that office, but we don't have a Texas office. We don't have a Florida office. We don't have offices in every state. We have a handful of offices. We've got a critical mass in DC and a number of folks in New York as well. And those are two largest offices. We continue to fill those out and we would love to have more people in Chicago. And the door's always open for folks that want to come in and work for us. And we continue to build out the ranks there. But we have adequate resources. We have a ton of folks within each of our offices. And we're actually leveraging a lot of the new technologies like AI to make sure that we're surveilling the markets and that we're reviewing things like insider trading and bringing cases where it makes sense. We're also”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some of the states have flexibility in what they set up for drinking or for gambling and the like. This is financial market activity. These are not wagers that you're not betting against the house. We have significant overlay from a regulatory standpoint over these markets. And so we're not gatekeeping particular categories of markets, elections, or sports and having different standards. That's not how we've typically done things. And so we don't intend to do that in this particular market.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think that said, you have the ability to make investments and trade options in all manner of securities, all manner of commodities. And so the rules are not different based on being sports or this or that. You know, I think this term betting has been used and thrown about in our securities markets and our derivatives markets as well. And I don't think it necessarily means anything in particular. But the notion is that you're able to make decisions at 18 in our markets. And we uphold that state by state, some of the standards have been set even higher. And that is not something that I have a particular opinion on. I think that's just the way you said.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, we're not merit regulators. We don't pass judgment on kind of the age requirements in our securities markets and our derivatives markets. We have certain standards that have been upheld. These markets, people are betting on any number of assets, right? If you want to call them better.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Existing exchanges operate, how they settle transactions and so forth. And so it's a really exciting time to be in the seat.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, our day to day is really the traditional market. And when we talk about these new markets, many of the incumbents are getting into this space as well. We're seeing more and more of these products offered on our traditional DCMs. But all of these are the same registration category, right? There are some nuances in how they're set up. There's some no action relief that's been given to some of these platforms historically. But this is not, it's not our day-to-day bulk of work. That said, given that it's new and given that there's so much that is changing, we have a lot more rulemaking and policy work to do in this space. So I do think it's a big piece because of that. But in terms of the actual size of these markets compared to our, as I said, about $500 trillion notional swaps market, $40 trillion notional futures markets, it's a smaller piece, but it's growing. And I think blockchain is going to really change in particular how some of the”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But a lot of these bucket shops over the years have now moved into gaming and other things. We're seeing really the same phenomenon where we have casinos and other operations that are operating lawfully under state requirements and regulations, but they don't have the same sorts of controls. We regulate a nearly 500 trillion notional market with the swaps market. We have very stringent requirements and controls around our exchanges. And these contracts reflect that. They go through a very stringent process of self-certification. They can't be readily susceptible to manipulation. We surveil those markets. We police things like insider trading. And so it's a much more robust scheme on top of these markets, much higher stringent requirements. And so”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Stuck taking whatever the bookie's giving you. And some of the odds are very different. So you're actually facing the odds of the bookie as opposed to here where the contracts go up and down in value based on actual market activity. And so over time, the Supreme Court actually blocked some of this bucket shop activity by saying you can't take the price quotations from the organized exchanges and use them in a bucket shop.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there really is an interesting history here. So if you go back to the 30s, national grain bedding was a thing, right? That was considered a national pastime. And so for as long as we've had derivatives markets, we've had these so-called bucket shops, which were these off-exchange markets where people were just placing bets against the house on the future price of a commodity. On the other hand, you had organized exchanges. So the Chicago Board of Trade, later CME, and others had organized markets with market integrity. They had derivative instruments contracts where you actually were in a contract with another person. And then now in our markets, we have a clearinghouse novating and standing in the middle of those contracts. But you have a buyer for every seller with the kind of bookie model. That's not the case. You're betting against the house. And there's a lot of different rules when you're betting against the house. You don't have the liquidity of being able to offset your position or sell out of your position.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think it's all facts and circumstances. So we'd evaluate potentially to the extent that there's insiders that are involved in the markets. We get that data. We're actually talking to a lot of the sports leagues. We're talking to participants in the markets to make sure that we are on top of things, have information about who is able to be participating in these markets, who's not. We do have at the exchange level, the exchanges are really the first line of defense, and they are surveilling the markets. They're doing KYC on their customers. And so that's certainly something we're on top of. And we'd consider and evaluate on a case-by-case basis.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To be clear, there's no requirement in the Act that there has to necessarily be some merit based result from a contract. I do think with a lot of these information markets, these prediction markets, where they're forecasting a potential outcome in the future, they'd produce a lot of useful information. We are seeing newsrooms incorporate prediction markets. We're seeing sports live broadcasts incorporate prediction markets. We're seeing the information used in particular. A great example is the election in 2024 where the president had a very large victory and that was not necessarily forecast in many of the polls. But of course the prediction markets got that right. So it's something that I think is valuable to society. The question of having regulation around that's a separate question. I think that's an important one. We are certainly taking on that task and making sure that we don't let these markets languish or we don't push them offshore, but we develop the right rules and regulations to develop investor protections and make sure”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some of these types of gaming where it's really a game of chance and not a game of skill, there's definitely a difference. And I think when we look at what's a commodity, it's possible that you could construct some sort of contract, an esoteric derivative. But really the underlying in a game of skills is very different. There's a clear economic risk associated, for example, with the Super Bowl. It's a good example. There's a ton of economic activity associated with that. There's hotel revenue that comes from it. There's vendors. There's activity within the city tourism. All of that. And so there's a real reason to hedge that risk with a game of chance. It's harder to say it's possible you can construct something, but it's less likely that that's a real underlying.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, from a legal standpoint, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding about the insider trading doctrine at the CFTC. So the authority at the agency is very similar to the authority at the SEC under our anti-fraud, anti-manipulation rule. We do have authority to police insider trading in the commodities markets. Now, the way that insider trading is carried out is oftentimes different from a situation where you have informational asymmetries relevant to a company. But there are situations where you have informational asymmetries related to the markets, placing a trade ahead of a customer, for example, or even in this situation now with prediction markets. And that's something we are thinking about and certainly on the beat in exploring. So we surveill the markets. We collect data. We have information about, for example, our players participating in these markets, our people associated with the sports leagues, et cetera. And so we are a cop on the beat in that regard. So the doctrine's not entirely different, but there are some nuances.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. It's come a very long way, of course, with the financial crisis. We got all manner of new products within our authority. But the definition of commodity is extraordinarily broad. It includes virtually everything except a few things that have been carved out, onions and motion picture box office for Secent. And that's a really important point to note that they were expressly carved out. So most things in our commerce today, even securities are technically considered commodities under our AC. And we have authority to regulate them. In the case of securities, we coordinate with the SEC and have some joint authority. But for all other types of products, services, rights, indices, people are going to hedge that risk. They're going to be in the market to speculate on those products. And so we don't merit regulate. We don't tell people what they should be entering into contracts on. We create rules and regulations around those markets to make sure that they have integrity.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who has economic exposure they need to hedge to Cardi B performing? There's a really interesting historical story around the definition of commodity and the markets that we regulate today starting back in the 30s when the commodity exchange act was first ratified. It was originally focused on grain and over time we've had things like work values.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Cardi B perform now. Just kidding. Really, our focus here is on the market. So the unique thing that the great thing about the way that we regulate the markets is that the exchanges themselves similar to on the security side are self-regulatory organizations. So each exchange has its own rulebook that's been approved by the agency. It has its own requirements for contracts that are certified on the exchange. So of course the CardiB contracts went through a self-certification process. And then they're settled in accordance with exchange rules. They go through a clearinghouse as well. So the exchanges each have these rule books and certain requirements around how the contracts are resolved and settled. And of course now we're seeing some differences amongst call sheet's rulebook and polymarkets rulebook. But that's the great thing about our markets and having the ability to build a business, to develop an exchange with some flexible guardrails on top that the agency oversees, but we don't prescribe exactly what has to be in the rule book.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really at a pivotal moment. You mentioned prediction markets, crypto, AI, all manner of new technologies and products that are impacting our markets. And the CFTC was really this kind of little known regulator before the financial crisis regulating the futures markets. It has expanded jurisdiction now over the swaps markets, the overcounter derivatives markets. And now we see so much innovation in that space with things like prediction markets and crypto with legislation on the verge of hopefully being on the president's desk. And so the agency is really at this unique moment where it has the opportunity to shape the future of these new and emerging markets. And it's really exciting time to be in the seat. Do you have an opinion on whether Cardi B performed at the Super Bowl? I mean, it's funny, but it's also kind of relevant because I saw someone who has actually filed a complaint to the commission about Calci's decision specifically. Well, of course, we're spending a lot of resources investigating.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you could argue maybe that's material non public information, right? You run a Super Bowl ad, you get a bunch of attention, maybe your share price goes up if you're publicly listed. I don't know.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And a lot of people must know if a company is going to run an ad like that. You have like the agency and actors, like everyone.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that said, there are still some issues that people are trying to work out. You have ambiguous outcomes. Like, did Cardi B actually perform? You have concerns around insider trading, although not insider trading per se, because we're not talking about securities contracts, but maybe people with insider info who inadvertently disclose something material. I was thinking about this actually. So you can also bet on which companies are going to run Super Bowl ads.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There were some weird bets around like color of Gatorade that was going to get dumped on the coach. Length of the national anthem being sung. Did you see that? Like I was tempted by some of those, but I stayed away.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The only reason this matters at all is because of prediction markets. So there was a bet, will Cardi B perform? And now the question is, does standing on stage and kind of bobbing your head and mouthing words count as a performance? Polymarket says it does. Cal she says it doesn't.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think it's still being resolved in various ways, but Cardi B, she was on set during Bad Bunny's extravaganza, and she was kind of like dancing and singing along like mouthing words at least, along with other people like Pedro Pascal and Jessica Alba.”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I knew it. Actually, I was going to start exactly the same way. I did watch the Super Bowl, and so I feel empowered to ask you a very controversial question”
2026-02-12 · Odd Lots · New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source