YouSaid · the spoken record

Mike McGlone

lines on the record: 62
first: 2022-11-10
most recent: 2022-11-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Make it a worst global economic recession soon. Now, Senior Now, demand destruction is very clear. We pointed this out. China, corral imports have declining. People blame that on COVID restrictions, but we've been watching the property crisis for years. And our Bloomberg economics team says, this is another 25% to go and their property prices. So that's a big macro fact. You look at US unleaded gas demand rolled over in June. That's the prime driving season. I remember seeing this in 2008. 2008 was my best trade in year ever, but I suffered horribly in 2007 because he saw it too early and I was too early and oh well that just happens this I don't trade anymore. I just say it's one thing I do is I really respect those of our listeners and viewers who do it I just say it and that's kind of a unique spot because I'm neutral. I don't have any bias either way. I just want to point out facts and get it right. But that's the unique thing about what Crudell has done. It's proved its relevance. It's proved it's going to be redundant.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the most significant jack is crude oil, and that's this unique thing about crude oil. Those of us who grew up in the 70s, remember those crises, spiking energy can cause global economic recession. Repeat, this just happened this year. The spiking energy really started last year, but clearly a pretty significant recession in Europe on energy crisis. A lot of that's just been poor management. Obviously, the war in Russia, but the dependence on fossil fuels from Russia. Now, the good news is we're going to get out of this ahead five years from now. We'll look back and say we just don't need those anymore. But the point is they can cause a recessions and then they can help alleviate the recession. So the biggest sore thumb in commodities is the fact that crude oil is still up about 20% on the year. Now, that's today, a couple days it might be different, but it's reverting rapidly. And until or unless crude oil drops, typically dropsuits cost of production in the US, that's $40 a barrel, so maybe it gets to $50. That's going to...”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, in the world of commodities, tell us if recessions cause commodity prices to collapse, how come the slowdown in economic growth this year has actually occurred not just while May's fall, but actually commodities have shot forward.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are increasing your tightening is not a good sign for what people have been accustomed to the last 40 years, particularly the last 10 years, that the Fed was there to save your back. Cryptos are a small part of it. So right now, cryptos are maybe less than a trillion dollars of assets. They were two trillion a little while ago, but global equities have dropped $30 trillion this year. The thing is coming out ahead of it, this matters, the point is coming out ahead is going to be much more delayed now. I fully expect cryptos will outperform in the bigger picture and Bitcoin will outperform once we get to this enduring deflationary recession, which is my base case. And the problem is you can't, now we're near that polymer, we're seeing a cusp in decline in global GDP. We're nowhere nearing seeing an end of hiking expectations. We're still in early days. And what has to happen typically is you need to see a lower plateau and risk assets.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I understand it was their Alameda research arm, but everything to me makes sense from the things I've heard in the past. Cross-holding of assets, what you heard about what happened with Terra Luna, and some of these silly things that humans do when they get greedy. And then you flush them out. So I don't know the details. I bet you can explain it to your listeners better than I do. I look at it as what's the macro implications of this. And to me, that's more important what this means for all risk assets. And let's put it this way. We're taping on November 8th. We're going to air on November 10th. That's really only one good month left of trading in the year. And I think we're at that point where the big money in the world is right on the cusp of hitting their stops, of real selling in the stock market. And the point is the market's down on the year 20 and the S&B 500, Nasdaq's 33%. And the fact that central banks are...”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was up almost a percent as we're speaking now, it's almost down on the day in crypto. Bitcoin was the first one who kind of gave us that indicator today.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Banks ease up on their tightening. That's the key thing. We need those leading market indicators to break down not just the stock market. So I think that's what's going to be happening. I've still been making that call on crude oil. It's going to go down a lot. But the problem with commodities, if they don't go down, it keeps essential banks' restraint and tightening in place and it keeps risk under pressure. So you see it's like the lose-lose situation. The key thing I want to bring us back to is right now this the fact that we've had this binance situation where they might buy FTX and they might not, but it looks like they are going to be that's a bit of a shock and it's just trickling down. It's the domino effect and that's one thing you learn in big markets. The quote I used to use in a trading pits, we used to use them with my friends. It was called GMTFO. Get me the heck out. And that's it. It's hitting stops or hitting triggers across the whole space. And cryptos are just a good example. Right now it's somewhat real time, but the S&P...”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The end for next year. And its key thing is sentiment was, oh, maybe we'll get that balance. But reality is this biggest risk reversion, the great reversion of 2022 looks like it's not going to go out like a lamb. It's like it's going to go out like a lion. And that makes sense. Now the key thing that's really been leading this is the key thing we learned this year is Bitcoin has been a great leading indicator. You can see it trade on weekends. It's doing it today. It's been the first markets to head lower. It's doing that. But the key sector that's the most kind of out of whack, that's commodities. Commodities really have to break down if history is a guide, show deflationary forces, help the market reset, help markets reset, show lower prices like they almost always have in global recessions and help the central banks help inflation and certainly in this case help central”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Asset prices and pressuring inflation so it goes lower. So everything is correlated at the moment. And the number one thing you learn in markets is there's no more powerful force in everything than when the stock market goes down hard. The key thing to remember about cryptos is they were the fastest horse in the race. They went up the most. Now they're going down the most. But the key thing that's just happening now this week as we tilt it towards the end of the years, everything's starting to break down. Crypto has been the leading indicator. The Fed's going to be tightening more. The world's heading towards a recession. Our Bloomberg economics team on a Wong had her recession probability model for the next year is 100%. And what does that mean for risk assets? The thing is, in the past, when we heard these kind of things, we said, oh, the Fed's easy and it's going to ease. It's not the case. So that's what's significant now is the sledgehammer's pounding hard. Markets are just starting to break down. And I think what we're going to see now is the tone set for.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Significant leading indicator that trades 24 7 on a global basis than Bitcoin. Now, Ethereum's in there too, but it's Bitcoin is a big dog and it's breaking down. I'm afraid it's going to hit those sell stops that everybody's on the cusp of hitting for the end of the year because this has been the great reversion of risk assets of 2022. It's going to be historic and when we got a few months left, I'm afraid what we're talking about right now is the trigger to get through the midterms and CPI that breaks markets down rather than as a lot of people are hopeful that they would recover and I think it's more likely this is the trigger that says we're going down. We're seeing the most significant Federal Reserve rate hikes and tightening of financial consistence in my lifetime since 80s and since I've been in markets we're seeing the most significant coordination of central bank tightening ever. And that's with the sole purpose of pressuring”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, so the news came out about Binance by an FTX, which is quite the surprise Sam Bankman Fried was a couple months ago, was called the JPMorgan of the space bin-up all assets. So that's a bit of a shock. The key fact is Bitcoin's breaking down. It's broken below $19,000, which was, it's basically right now if it closes here, it'll be the lowest weekly close since December 2020. So the key fact is it's triggering dominoes. such a unique time of year. I mean, it's November. Basically at one month left of trading is triggering the macroeconomic dominoes. Crude oil is hovering unchanged on the day. Now it's dropped 2%. The stock market's giving back gains. It's the significance of this new asset, which has become, I think, one thing that really became profound this year is Bitcoin. Everybody realizes there is no more”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks for having me, Jack. My title is now macro strategist. I don't know if that means much different, but our goal is to try to figure out markets. Thanks for having me.”
2022-11-10 · Forward Guidance · Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT