YouSaid · the spoken record

Mike Stroup

lines on the record: 69
first: 2022-09-21
most recent: 2022-09-21
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“See for the last year. Oh, you know, it looks like I included an extra month there. It's not 12. So tiny mistake there on my methodology, but I think you're going to have like an 11 or a 12% increase there on your solo rent index. And a key point on this, a lot of times when you talk to normal people or even when you talk to economists, they say like, oh, 6%, 12%, that's just a 6% difference. It's not. It's double. It's a 2x difference. It's a double difference. So sometimes that just gets mistaken. People talk about, oh, inflation, should we target 2% inflation or 3% inflation? That's not just one point difference. That's a huge difference.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The way they measure shelter, they have rent, and then they have owner's equivalent rent, and then they have a tiny bit for hotels or whatever. And the methodology for owner's equivalent rent is they just ask people what they think their house would rent for. You own a house, how much do you think it would rent for? And in past history, that has always lagged, inflation, because people are busy. They're not a real estate agent, and maybe they don't know. And if you look at past in times of inflation increases, this has lagged and then continued after the rent prices actually stopped dropping just because people aren't paying attention or whatever. I would argue that it's a weird way to do the methodology in 2022 to just ask people. So I posted here the Zillow rent index, which after I kind of ran this, I saw a couple other people like to post charts on this too, which is cool. But”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, this isn't this slide here isn't so much a conspiracy about CPI. Because this, so we're looking at a slide here with owner's equivalent rent and how it contributes to inflation stickiness. Owner's equivalent rent has kind of been written up in the literature over the years as being a lag, having a bit of a lag. And so knowing the methodology on this is kind of useful. So the way shelter is roughly one-third of the CPI. It's a big part of it. That's probably equivalent to what most people's spending basket is.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if I could just push a little further on this one, if you were to think a little adversarially, you would say, okay, the federal government has an incentive to somehow report a CPI that's Incentive to try to find ways to decrease these liabilities. Than what CPI is. So I think as CPI prints come out, one thing I like to do is I like to go through all the little pieces and just see like, hey, what's weird?”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, good luck if you're going to try to get a defense contractor to eat some inflation increases. They definitely, my experience with military contracts was they really know those contracts and they will find a way to, if you don't specify exactly what you need just to the letter, they will finagle their way to say that, hey, that wasn't in the contract, we can add that for you, but we're going to need to do an addendum contract and you see a lot of these addendum contracts where you want to add one little feature, one tiny little feature, whether it's software or hardware or anything, and they find ways to really get you on a new contract. So any of these three, I mean, good luck trying to, you know, have inflation outpace the increase, the pre-programmed, the legislatively required increases to the”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A big portion of it is inflation indexed, which makes it hard to just inflate your currency and make the value of these promises weaker.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who knows So the payout that they got for 2022 was a 5.9% increase, which was right align with CPI. And then starting in 2023, they're probably going to get at least an 8.7% increase in their social security benefits. So if it's one trillion paid out per year, then that's another $8 billion in spending. Just kind of like that inflation spiral that people talk about the wage price spiral, this isn't wages necessarily, but it's a little bit. It's transfer payment. People are going to take that money and go out and spend it. The reason why we already know what that payment is, they averaged the July, August, September inflation stats to get the payout for the next year. And it's kind of tricky how they do that. You know, elections are in November. So incumbents are smart. They announced the new Social Security bump in October, mid-October to get it just a week or two before election so everyone knows to vote for the incumbent who helped them out. So there's your Social Security there.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Decrease those commitments through inflation. So Social Security is the worst one here. It's about 1.2 trillion. The benefits are fully indexed to the CPIW. That's very similar to the main CPI that you always hear about. How much of Social Security's overhead versus payments? I mean, I don't know, maybe 20%, maybe something. So let's say it's $200 billion worth of clerical workers and $1 trillion worth of payouts. It's probably not right, but let's say it is.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you mentioned Luke Groman. This is a bit of a point in sort of a pushback on his thesis slightly, which is in theory and in past history, governments have tried to inflate away their liabilities. So lessen the value of their liabilities by just inflating their currency, whether it's the basement, so changing the metal, whether it's clipping the coins around the outside, all those kind of things that are in Savedin's book. If you read the Austrians or whoever. What we have in sort of modern times, at least in developed markets, we have a lot more inflation indexed liabilities. We have a lot more inflation indexed promises. So at the end of the day, this will be settled in the political context. But when we break down our three-bay expenses, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, a lot of those are going to be hard to”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For at least the short to medium term, the US is the cleanest dirty shirt. So we're just talking U.S. debt, fiscal, monetary position here. You know, if you've got a choice between euros and dollars, you've got to choose dollars every day of the week. And so I don't, that kind of point you were explaining about a broader... Is there a way to kind of for Russia put a short squeeze on the US in terms of their debt position? No, I don't really think so, at least not in the short to medium term.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, Luke is awesome. I have his subscription. I kind of roll off. It's a little on the pricey side, so I do a couple months and then come back later. There is that wider point about... Certain nations no longer want to hold U.S. treasuries, Russia, China, Iran. We could get into a discussion about is China holding their treasuries and a Belgian subsidiary or not? How do we know play detective, whatever? There's people who push that research, which is interesting. But for this particular point, I don't think that matters.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“that had higher rates, and because that debt is so short term. And then just one last thing, this is net interest. And so there is an important point to be made about net interest versus gross interest. So net interest is actually closer to $310 billion, but that gets in, I'm not necessarily sure that that matters so much. So it's important to keep both of those in mind. But the main problem here is that as rates go up, the Fed and Treasury are in a tough situation because the more that they raise rates, the more expensive their life becomes. So it's a pickle.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a 12 year backwards look back. So this is includes. September of 2021, all the way through to August of 2022. So, even if rates sort of, we kind of plateau with rates, you'll drop off the September month and add October. And then you'll drop off. And so you'll eventually just pick up more and more months.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We as Americans have kind of gotten used to just billions and trillions. Who cares? But to put it in somewhat a perspective, the military defense budget is $750 billion, something like that. So you could say it's almost like we have an extra military. And then the U.S. military, as we all know, is huge. It's the largest in the world. Spend more on it than anyone else. So we basically have two militaries of the biggest military, which is kind of. Interesting. And then just one little point on this is backwards looking. So even if rates just stopped right now, you would still see this number continue to go up. And then the other thing is that they're explain that real quick.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, this is the rolling 12 month interest expense. Jim Bianco is one of the few guys on Twitter that'll kind of post this occasionally. So if you follow him, you'll sometimes see it. If it's between times when he hasn't posted it, then again, that's what I found myself just running the numbers because like, man, Jim hasn't tweeted about this in a while. But you can just pull this down again from Treasury and run the numbers there. And it shows over the last 12 months how much interest has been paid. So the gross interest was kind of humming along at about 550 to 570 in the pre-COVID times when we had the interest rates really bottom out that expense dropped to about 470 or 480 in the trough. And then from there, as we had the rate hikes, it's just skyrocketed. So the gross interest expense for the last 12 months right now is about $780.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Available, but it's just hard to find, and I found it easier to just run the numbers myself. So right here on the chart is just marketable securities. So these are not U.S. Treasuries that Social Security owns in their trust fund, for instance. And it just breaks it up in a pie chart by year. So between the next three years, you have 50% of all U.S. treasury debt, including tips that is coming due within the next three years. That's crazy. So it's heavily weighted in the short term.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, duration's a pain. Duration is funny because it's somewhat complicated. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of tips too much, but you have tips which change their principle based on inflation. So that'll change the duration because that's just all way out there. I think seven years I've heard seven years is kind of typical for duration. And that's really not something you want to calculate by hand. I mean, you'll just pull up a Bloomberg or whatever and pull that up. I think that kind of makes sense. The thing that's going to affect your duration is all those little interest payments along the way. So it's just a measurement of how much interest you're getting along the way, how much interest you're getting at the end, the principal at the end, that type of thing. And then so what I did here on just a simple pie chart, I basically redid a chart I did a few months back. I pulled down the data from the US Treasury. And this is something that should be easy to find. Like you should be able to Google dead outstanding by year and find stuff like this. But for whatever reason, it's probably...”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the overall interest expense from the U.S. government just over the last six months, you know, the running 12-month total of the amount of interest they've been having to pay has just skyrocketed because there's so much short-term debt and because that's just what they rely on. And side note, it's a little bit reminiscent of Lehman and the stuff that was happening in 0607 a little bit not trying to say that something like that is going to happen again, but people love to borrow short-term at super low rates and just keep rolling and rolling and rolling until maybe someday you can't roll it again.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So debt is just barring from the future, right? So we've just become very, very used to it, very comfortable with it. And then the average person walking down the street, when you ask them, or if it ever comes up in a conversation, most people just assume, oh, there's those 30-year bonds, right? This debt that we have is just all 30-year bonds. And if the interest rates change a little bit, who cares? Because it's just all long-term debt. But it's not. several different reasons partly because of market demand, partly because short-term rates are normally cheaper. I think you get this result where majority of the US debt, the U.S. marketable Treasury securities are very short-term. And that, you know, when you do a simple pie chart of it or if you just do a ladder chart, it really, really comes up. And then what you'll really see the effect of that is when we talk about the interest rates as they've gone up lately, you can see a huge change.”
2022-09-21 · We Study Billionaires · BTC096: Fractional Reserve Banking Vs Bitcoin w/ Mike Stroup (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT