YouSaid · the spoken record
Mike Wilson
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- 87
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- 2024-09-05
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- 2024-09-05
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“I would agree. And it's a fictional character, but it's real life. Experience of this is how it goes down and understanding your faults, your own fault, understanding your weaknesses and your strengths, when to press it, when not to press it. And then, you know, unfortunately that story ends up with killing himself. Because it just eats away at you. So that's really why I wish I knew 30 years ago, it's going to take a pound of flesh.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I guess part of it is what I just said, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Cut yourself some slack along the way. You're going to make some wrong turns. And I would say enjoy it, you know, because... It's a journey, and it's a journey not just about the people you're working with and the people you're helping your clients. It's a journey about yourself. This is a struggle with yourself. I mean, figuring out markets is an internal battle. It's like probably the book I should have mentioned was Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Sure. I read that like five times. And I still go back and refer to it sometimes.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think that's really good advice to a young person. I wish I had had that advice because we're all ball-eyed coming out of college thinking we're going to change the world. And the reality is this is a long road. I mean, 35 years, I'm still learning every day.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The advice I do give them is just this is not a sexy business. This is a grinder business. So if you come into this business, understand like we talked earlier, you're going to be wrong a lot. You got to have some humility. You're going to be a lot of highs and lows. When things are feeling really good, take it down a notch. When things are feeling really horrible, don't kill yourself. It's going to be a roller coaster. It takes a long time to become even close to being a domain expert in anything in this business. There are so many smart people. There's so much changing all the time. You know, you got to put 10 years in before you know anything.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's just a gamut of it. Right now, I read so much for work. I don't probably read enough books like day to day, but I'd like to read more.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there's a movie. I didn't watch the movie because the book was just so detailed. It was fantastic. Of like all the classic books, my favorite was Catcher in the Rye. Of a coming of age story, animal farm and those types of things. And then the trashy type stuff. One of my favorites of all time still to this day is the firm. I don't know if you remember reading the John Grusham.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If it was up to my wife, I'd be reading like a book a week. She's a literary giant, so she's always handing me books. And I'm kind of an eclectic reader, but I would say some of my favorite books are The Boys in the Boat. You're serious.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, I don't know if this is going to sound right or dishonest, but it's true. Basically, my mom and my wife. I mean, these are the two strongest women I've ever met in my life. They've been extremely honest with me and forced me to grow. And so those are the two most important for sure. There's no one person, but many colleagues. And many clients. I would say clients have shaped my views on the market probably more than colleagues because they're actually putting skin in the game. And they've also helped me make good career decisions and judgments.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Spectacular, so I would recommend that. And then I'm watching a Pete Rose documentary. Right now, I'm in the third or the fourth, and it was not what I expected. I like to watch a lot of documentaries, and that one is pretty fascinating.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's all good. It's just great character studies, which we enjoy. My wife and I have enjoyed that series. We just finished it. Other than that, the offer, if you've seen that. So, the offer is about them making of the movie The Godfather.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The rate of change on that is in a bad slope, which means valuations come down. It doesn't mean it has to go negative. But it can go negative and then we'll have to adjust our targets further. Right now it's in a correction phase from a finesse standpoint. From an economic standpoint, it's all labor data. That's all that matters to me now. Everything else is kind of secondary. If the claims data and the payroll data stays okay, soft landing is the outcome. If that deteriorates further, I don't think it can deteriorate a whole lot further before the markets start to get nervous.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So once again, it goes back to rate of change on a lot of the key metrics. I say the key metrics I'm focused on now are things like revision factors, so earnings revision factors. That's what stocks are most highly correlated to. That's now rolling over”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The next cycle. That's what's going to be want to get excited about when valuations come in at some point in the next 12 months is my guess. And there's a fat pitch that people have forgotten about.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Know it's years, but I don't think it's fast enough to prevent where we are in the economic cycle. Once again, going back to, I think there are people making the argument that, oh, Not only did fiscal kind of bridge us another year, but now AI is going to extend the cycle another three or four years, I'm just not in that belief because.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When the hyperscalers or somebody else hands them a solution, it's a packaged solution. I mean, it's no different in software in the 90s, right? It's not like you and I are going to go develop Office or we're going to go develop Excel, but somebody developed that for us, we deployed it in our enterprise, and our employees became very productive. So we just need the development of those applications. That's the second phase. The other problem that we haven't solved yet is the electricity, you know, the power consumption, the heat, and also to build these things out takes time So there are some snafus in here that will retard the expansion and growth of.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it was fast. I mean, it was pretty immediate, and anybody could type. Could use email. An email was, I think, still to this day one of the biggest productivity enhancements I've ever seen in my lifetime. Now the browser was the other. Killer app. And now the problem was there weren't any websites to go to for a while, but those two sort of apps to me were so obvious, much more obvious than, say, ChatGPT is. At least so far. We'll see where that goes. Right now, it does homework for high school students and can help you and I write a nice poem to a loved one or help us write a speech or something great. But like, is it really enhancing productivity in a meaningful way? We can't use that yet. We can't trust it for the numbers. We can't trust it for mission-critical type analysis yet.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just faster processing, right? And then once again, it's about the solution that it's built around that, right? The internet was a really interesting But I mean, 1995, and you remember this like I did, we're sitting around in the desk and all of a sudden they're like, oh, there's this thing called email. That we're going to introduce, like, what is this? But it was such an easy application”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Somebody's going to come up with a solution to kind of wring out that inefficiency. And there's massive opportunity for that using machine learning. I don't know who those companies are yet, okay? But those are going to be really the fat pitch. That's going to be where the real wealth, the 10, 20, 30 baggers, because these companies now, they can't grow 10-fold. They're already too big. You know what I'm saying?”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not sure we're going to have really artificial intelligence. I mean, that's an interesting way to get people excited. It's just another investment cycle. There will be use cases and business models that are very profitable built on the backbone of those cloud networks. Okay, great. We don't even know who those companies are yet. My guess is they're going to reside in areas where great efficiencies are needed. For example, in healthcare, which we were talking about earlier, a lot of inefficiencies in healthcare.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's why it's interesting now, Barry, where obviously hyperscalers have been the big winners of the last era. And there's nothing wrong with these businesses or companies. Okay, they're great. But they're now the ones spending all the money on this next generation cloud or AI, whatever you want to call it. By the way, AI, just to be clear, is really just an extension of machine learning.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you think about who actually ended up building the big stocks, the ones that really worked from the internet, it's the Mag7. I mean, one semicountry company that has gone crazy here recently. But generally, these are the businesses that took the internet and then built incredible business models kind of for free. I mean, they didn't have to spend the money to build a superhighway. The guys who built the superhighway, those stocks have been terrible.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, that's sort of my technology background speaking. That's how these cycles work. You buy the picks and shovels, or do you enablers initially? And then the real money, the real opportunity is with the companies that can actually deploy that technology into a new business model. So if you think about the 1990s as a good example everybody will understand, the enablers were the telecom companies, the silicon companies, the telecom equipment companies.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not exactly end of the world. Like you said, it's bumpy. That's the way you phrase the question. So I think it is going to be bumpy. And let's not forget that we're going into this election season. There are some other things going on around the world. There is still excess leverage in the system that I'm not sure how that's going to be resolved necessarily. China's not providing the impetus that people were hoping for from a growth standpoint We need to take a little bit of a break. And it could just be a consolidation period at the index level, which once again lends me to say, I want to be up the quality curve and I want to skew more defensive than growth because that's typically what works when the Fed cuts.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's a little bit of both. I mean, I would say that I think the trajectory is down. I mean, 19 times next year's numbers, which is the end of the year, is lower than where we're trading today. Sort of that low 5,000 as opposed to 5400. But what is that?”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So as you're moving to the Fed cuts, that's the best part of the cycle. And we wrote about that at the end of last year when we sort of threw in the towel that we were going to have this hard landing, we thought there'd be a rally. Okay, we didn't think we'd go to 5,700, but needless to say, that's what happened. But the best part of that rally has now occurred. So when the Fed starts cutting multiples usually go down. And there's just not enough earnings growth to offset a 10 to 15% multiple contraction between here and the end of the year. We have like 8% growth built in for next year's earnings growth. So that's the math. I mean, you have a net drag from the multiple contraction relative to what the earnings growth is going to be, even in the soft landing outcome. So I would argue that we the highs for the year in the S&P are probably in, that doesn't mean it's a cataclysm.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, all of the gains really since October of last fall has been multiple expansion. In anticipation of a Fed cutting cycle and a reacceleration in growth. So we went from 17 times earnings S&P earnings in October of last fall to 22 times earnings in June. Well, that's about as rich as you can get. So I'm pretty comfortable saying that multiples are likely to come down as the Fed cuts. That's also something I think people don't appreciate. Once the Fed, like it's easier to travel than arrive.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, the good news is that has narrowed. So the spread now between two years and Fed funds is down to 145. Why? Because the claims numbers were better. We got some ISM services data was a little bit better. So this fear that got priced in really quickly has now subsided a bit. Doesn't mean it's extinguished. It just means that the pendulum is swinging back again. And so we're focused on that. We're watching it closely. I would say the jury is out. We don't know.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Massive cuts Like not 50 basis points, or 75, it's predicting 185 basis points of cuts over the next probably 12 to 18 months, which is a pretty aggressive Fed cutting cycle. And that's all it's telling you. It's just telling you that the likelihood that the Fed is behind the curve is gone up. Once again, not a recession, but the risk of a hard landing has gone up all else equal”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is why I'm very focused right now in the two year yield relative to Fed funds. Two year yields got almost 185 basis points below Fed funds”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, once again, like our house call is as soft landing's most likely outcome, we don't know the answer. And I don't think the curve is re-steepened in a way that would signal that, you know, recession is more likely than not yet. But that can change. So we're very focused on that. And usually, when the curve resteepens from the front end, meaning the Fed is catching up.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Businesses, credit tends to do much better than equities that has been the case on a risk adjusted basis. Bonds tend to be a better buy that's starting to work now. So yeah, I mean, there's all kinds of things that we look at. And then, of course, there's individual stock cycles, which we pay attention to quite a bit. So we do use a lot of technical analysis. One of the reasons we're contrary to is I tend to fade exhaustion. Exhaustion meaning things he had overbought or things get oversold. I like to kind of press into those points.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we're pretty convinced that we're late cycle. Now, late cycle periods can last for years. I mean, the late 90s is a great example of that. I mean, we're on forever. So, we don't know when it ends, but it's very hard to argue that we're mid cycle or early cycle because we're unemployment. I mean, you're basically at the 50-year low and it's kind of turning up. So we think we're pretty much late cycle. And that informs us where to be within the markets. That's why quality large caps have done so well, quality growth in particular. That's what works. And this idea that you're going to go back to small caps or low quality cyclical, it's just, it doesn't work. But people, I don't think understand or appreciate where we are or they have a different view about where we are in the economic cycle. So that's one example. On the price cycle or market cycles, I mean, that tends to be around kind of Fed policy kind of where the interest rate cycle is. Well, there too it would suggest that we're late cycle because the curves inverted has been inverted for two years. We're now about to resteepen and go positive again. That also would argue that you want to have your risk kind of dialed back, at least from a beta standpoint. You don't want to be invested in lower quality balance sheets.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you look at the variance in estimate, analyst estimates, it has absolutely narrowed dramatically over the last 15 or 20 years. In the mid or late 90s, when hedge funds became a thing and active managers were doing their thing, the variance in estimates was all over the place because we didn't have this such formal guidance. And so the irony here is that in the effort to reduce uncertainty, you actually end up creating more volatility because invariably those estimates are going to end up being wrong at some point and everybody's in the same position.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so. But more importantly, what ends up happening is the market now gravitates to pricing in the same outcome, right? No one is willing to go away from the dot plot or the market rarely gets away from the guidance. And I bring that up because it's the same thing in a stock market now, right? With regulation FD and now we have an entire industry dedicated to company conference calls.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because the markets are almost unable to trade away from this sort of formal guidance. Now, that served a purpose to a point. Now, I think it's outgrown its usefulness in many ways.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then they have to basically go through every line, and they're like parsing each word. It's gotten to the point now where it's almost debilitating.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, it could be more, but like that's what the Fed's telling us. Oh, okay. Well, I mean, so I find that, and this goes back to 2003 with Regulation FD. That's when everything kind of changed. Well, changed in two ways. So the Fed changed with Greenspan, right? With all this forward guidance. And then, of course, it's just gotten more and more and more. You got a dot plot now. And it's just compounded. You give people a little bit of information. They want more. Now provides so much information they can't even tie their shoes without telling us first”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Fed has been wrong. It's a hard job. I mean I remember I'll just go back to an example, but in December 2021, there was 50 basis points of Fed hikes priced in to the next year. And I remember talking to clients going to think this makes sense. I mean, they were runaway inflation and the Fed has told you they're going to start raising rates.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say that right now there is more certainty in people's minds. Then reality. And that's really where the opportunity comes up, which means there seems to be a lot of certainty about how things are going to play out, not economically, but also from an earning standpoint. But I've heard these same arguments now for four to six months, four to six quarters, quite frankly, about this re-acceleration in certain things, which it keeps being deferred. There's also a lot of certainty apparently around Fed policy because they guide, which I don't think there's any certainty around. They don't know.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the fog of uncertainty creates those mismatches. By the way, it creates on the upside too. So, for example, in early 2021, we made a pretty important call, which was that all the meme stocks were going bananas, right? Because the free money that was floating around. Well, these prices are this is not going to end well. And it sure it didn't.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct. But when things are really confusing, like during COVID, for example, you had incredible value opportunities that popped up because nobody knew anything, including us. But we knew the price. And that was the main reason we got bullish in March of 2020 was that we were waiting for equity risk premiums to blow out, and they did. And I'm like, well, it doesn't really matter what happens. If I'm buying this at a 700 basis point equity risk premium, and yes, I'm going to make money. I'm going to make money. Maybe not next week now. It turned out it was actually the low. But I mean, that's when valuation typically doesn't matter, but when it matters, it's all that matters.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's when things are mispriced the most, right? When things are certain, you tend to get pretty accurate pricing. And of course, that's dangerous too. I was going to say something.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, it comes down to what we think is the most important thing this week. We also, you know, it's a bit of an art in terms of, okay, when do we press it? When do you lay low? When do you make a relative value call? When do you make a market call? You know, it's like, well, where's the opportunity right now? We can kind of go anywhere. The beauty of my job is I can kind of talk about anything. I can talk about rates. I can talk about credit. I can talk about stocks. That gives me a wide range of things that I can have something relevant to say every week.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Every Monday at 12 a.m. in the morning, the note comes out. So people are waiting for that. Or we do these regular touch points. And that regular communication, whether it's to the institutional community, to the retail community, to our endowment community, whatever that might be. And of course, then we do a lot of marketing. We do a lot of one-on-one meetings, you know, group events, et cetera. So it's all those touch points. And the challenge is that we have to deliver the message depending on who the audience is. When it becomes challenging is if I'm doing a media segment and that maybe the messaging is more for the institutional community, but then the retail community picks up on it and it's really not for them or vice versa. That's where it becomes a bit of a challenge. And that's one of the reasons why I'm now more focused on the institutional side.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's not really any uncertainty about what I'm saying. I could be wrong, but it's very clear. And people like the clarity of the messaging. So we write a note every week. There's a cadence to it, right? We've developed this cadence with our clients.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's a challenge. I would say of all the things, all the skills that I've acquired over the years, probably my best skill is communication. Whether it's verbal, written, media of some kind, people say I have a face for radios. Yeah, the podcast is better. But the point is I'm pretty clear. There's usually.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was immediate No, because Mag7 killed you in 22, right? So in 22, that portfolio was actually up It's long only. So now. What I'm saying is that calling the SP 500 is not really that important to making money. Making money is pivoting into things that maybe are unloved, getting out of things that are overloved at the right time and not overstaying your welcome. And that's where I think our research and our advice has been really quite good.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so the last six and a half years, that portfolio. Has outperformed the SP by almost 800 basis points annually. Annually”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we did adjust all that. But once again, Barry, he can't get everything right. That's right. So we feel like that narrative is still right on track. We didn't trade it particularly well. Okay, now what we did trade well was our defensiveness and our quality bid, staying away from small caps. We got out of the memes, the high flying multiple stocks. People try to keep buying those and just got carried out. And when I find interesting is, you know, if you're bearish and wrong, you get carried out. People just hate that. But the reality is that if you're bullish and wrong, you destroy way more capital if you're telling people to buy these crazy things that have no valuation support. So it's just kind of ironic. And I'll just throw this out as a bit of an advertisement. But we run a portfolio of 10 stocks, a concentrated portfolio.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fierce, fierce. We got more pushback, by the way, being bullish in March and April of 2020 than being bearish in 2022 because people say we were being insensitive to the disease. And we're not being insensitive. We're just trying to do our job. And anyway, so the point is that that boom bust, we compared exactly to World War II. We wrote extensively about this. The way we adjusted it was we said, okay, these cycles now, we're going to be hotter. And that's why in 2021 and to 21 we said, okay, this is the peak of the cycle, rate of change, which by the way turned out to be really accurate. We got people out of all the high flying meme stocks and all that like in March of 21 because we said this is silly. This is all just COVID overconsumption. Right. It's going to be payback.”
2024-09-05 · Masters in Business · From Investment Banker to CIO with Mike Wilson · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source