YouSaid · the spoken record

Miran

lines on the record: 38
first: 2026-04-01
most recent: 2026-04-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“So I'll repeat what I said before, which is that innovation is the driver, is the main driver of long-run human prosperity. So if you are working on innovation, thank you for doing what you do. And with respect to issues in payments and payments technologies, you know, when the Federal Reserve makes policy, we follow the Administrative Procedure Act, which is what all regulatory agencies have to do, and we issue notices of proposed rulemaking, we issue requests for information, respond to those, give us comments. We search for comments from industry, from stakeholders, from innovators, so that we can know whether the regulations are doing the job that they are supposed to or where they need to be pushed or pulled to get them into a place to make the economy more efficient. So, you know, we put out these notices, you know, sort of know what needs to change to make the economy more efficient.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, so tokenized deposits strike me as a, and to be clear, I have not made a I have not made an extensive study of tokenized deposits in particular, but what I know about them, which is probably less than you do, is that they strike me as an improve an improvement on services that are already being offered by banks. Is that something that ultimately ends up revolutionizing? Banking system, I don't know, but this tokenized deposit strikes me as another step in a long line of improving the financial services that banks offer by utilizing technology. But I haven't made an extensive study of it and I would be open to changing my mind based on things you tell me”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I completely agree that I think a lot of us stablecoins as being this huge tailwind for the rest of the world to be able to gain entry to the dollar system. I'm curious, how do you think about the other side of the equation, which I think goes understated, which is tokenize deposits? What do you think about those?”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Savings, that's going to win the neutral rate, right? This is what happened in the late 90s and the early 2000s, what former chairman Ben Bernanke called the global savings glot. If we hit the more optimistic projections of stablecoin growth, you could be looking at magnitudes that are maybe not quite as big as the global savings clot, but let's say half as big. So there is the scope for these to matter very substantially for Montreal.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is that I'm very optimistic about stablecoin growth, but I think that a lot of the stablecoin uptake is actually going to come from large volumes of money that want to be denominated in dollars, that want to sit in dollars, and are currently unable to sit in dollars, right? Huge pools of savings that have no other way of getting into the dollar system, suddenly there's a way of doing it. And of course, you still need to get onto the crypto ecosystem to do that. So there is sort of still an entry real issue, but I think it makes the problem easier. And I sort of think of it a bit like a rideshare app sort of being a new technology that broke up the monopoly of a taxi cab medallion. It's that type of thing that sort of that creates that creates that ability to sort of start circumventing barriers to dollar deposits that people didn't have access to before. Now, of course, tying this back to neutral rate that we were discussing before, if you have huge inflows from the rest of the world into US dollar-denomination.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where the banking system struggles to penetrate because of geography or development, right? And so you've got large parts of the world where people are living behind capital controls where if they wanted access to dollar savings instruments like dollar deposits, treasury bills, money market funds, they don't have the capacity to do so because the country they're living in, the law is you just can't move your money into dollars. We're not going to let you. And it doesn't matter how bad the people want access to dollars. They're just not allowed to. There are other parts of the world where it's very rural and there may not be banking services. And maybe people have a cell phone and so have a satellite link on their cell phone, but they have no access to actual banking services or the banking services in the country are too unreliable and volatile or there may be too much inflation and they don't want to use the banking services. So my perspective is that”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“About stable coins. And I made a couple of arguments about stablecoins in that speech. The major arguments that I made was that if you've got Genius Acts compliance stablecoins, they help facilitate digital payments, but from a savings pool of capital perspective in the United States, in Europe, in places that already have access to dollar-denominated savings accounts, dollar-denominated money market funds, treasury bills. If you have a system with open capital markets, from a savings perspective, stablecoins don't, I think, add as much. From a payments perspective, they do, because they're facilitating digital payments. But if you've got a huge pool of capital, I don't know that stablecoins are adding that much. Now, that's not true in places with capital controls, and it's not true in places.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other big trend that we're seeing is, of course, around stable coins. You had a landmark speech about stablecoins recently, and I would love to just hear about how you're evolving your thinking there and its role within the broader financial system, where you see it being incorporated, where you think it complements what already exists there, and yeah, just how you're thinking about that.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For comments on Skinny Master accounts. And we received a large volume of these comments. The staff are going through the comments now. I've looked at a few of them. Some of the things that stuck out at me were things like ACH access and caps and caps on the size of the balance of the Skinny Master accounts. But this is an area of active examination and active rulemaking. And so it is something that is moving ahead. I'm excited for Governor Waller, who leads the payments committee to sort of push this to next steps. And I think it's got a lot of potential.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, so this ties into the previous conversation nicely because we were talking about productivity growth and we were talking about technological advancements. And if you look over the very, very long term of human history, it is technological advances that drive all of the growth in human prosperity that we've experienced. And I think that's true of a wide variety of technological advances. And I think that financial innovation is an important part of that because financial innovation and advances in financial technology and financial capabilities help to allocate capital to where it needs to be to make the economy produce efficiently, produce more, and just generally drive human prosperity. So I do think that financial innovation is important too. I think that introducing these skinny master accounts for stablecoins will be an important step in the direction of allowing that type of innovation to occur. The Federal Reserve recently put out a request for”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Data centers. A lot of the GPU demand, I think, gets leaked overseas. A lot of the GPUs are not made in the United States. Certainly data center demand does lead to investment activity in the United States. Certainly we pay a lot of employee compensation to people who are working on developing AI, integrating AI into existing company work streams. But where does it shake out on potential GDP versus actual GDP? I don't really have a firm view.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The net of change in the applic, I think it's a fair assumption to assume it could be zero, sorry, it could be neutral. With other type of shocks, that might not be the case. Certainly with the case of a regulation shock, I think that actual GDP will move out by a lot less than potential GDP. So for example, if you've got a smokestack that you can run eight hours a day with strict carbon regulations and then the carbon regulations ease and you can run it 16 hours a day, you don't need to do additional investment because you've got the capital stock already there. You've got the smokestack. It's just that you can run the smokestack more hours a day. And so that's a case in which potential GDP goes up, I think, by a lot more than actual GDP. The amount of supply you can produce is gone up by a lot, but the amount of demand has not gone up by a lot because all you've done is ease production constraints. You haven't increased a lot of investment demand. AI, I don't know. AI could be somewhere in between. So certainly AI creates a huge amount of investment demand in the form of GPUs.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are times when I think that that's a good assumption. So, for example, if you think about the Greenspan productivity story in the 90s, where former chairman Greenspan was making the case that improvements in productivity were going to lead to high GDP growth that was non-inflationary. And therefore, policy doesn't really need to respond. Now, I think that argument, I think, makes a lot of sense in the context of a telecoms revolution because if you're building lots of telecom capacity, you have to tear up streets, lay telecom wire, put the streets back together. There's a lot of investment activity that occurs. And so you get the increase in demand because of the investment activity. And you get the increase in supply because you have a productivity enhancement.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Actual supply or sorry, actual GDP or potential GDP by more or less. And so if you have a situation like one assumption that a lot of people make is that actual and potential move out by roughly the same amount in response to a lot of these productivity shocks.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other channel through which I think a lot of the supply side of stuff affects things that we care about for Monterey policy is through what we would call the output gap. And the output gap is the difference between potential growth, what the economy can produce with unemployment at its natural level, and where actual output is. And so if you've got the unemployment rate at 8%, there's tons of unused slack in the economy. There's tons of unused resources. The economy is producing below potential. There's a lot more it can produce. If you've got the unemployment rate at 3%, you're above potential because you're trying to produce more than the economy can produce in the non-inflationary way, and you get price pressures as a result. Now, what matters when you think about shocks to the supply side, whether they're AI, oil, regulation, no matter what the shock is, what matters when you think about this, is it pushing out or pulling in”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Needs some adjustment. But when I think about these supply side policies and their interaction with monetary policy, a lot of it flows through what we call, so there's two primary channels. One is what happens to prices. I talked a little bit about that with deregulation. If you can produce more with less, you lower the cost of production, that feeds through into consumer prices. If you're removing barriers to entry because regulations can serve as barriers to entry, and I talked a lot about this in my January regulation speech, you're creating more competition, more competition with lower prices. It will lower markups. It will lower monopoly profits.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AI and things like deregulation come into play is because they allow the economy to produce more with less. And that's also true of capital deepening. If you look at the incentives for investment that were in part of the tax legislation last year, they full expensing on equipment and full expensing on R&D. These incentivize investment in productive capital. And when you have more productive capital, you can produce more, right? And so I think it's all a function of, so when you sort of say something like running it hot, it's wildly imprecise because it's a statement that sort of assumes that supply is constant, that you can't increase the horsepower of the car. But if you go through deregulation, if you go through AI, if you go through capital deepening, you're increasing the horsepower of the car and you can produce more with less and therefore demand can grow faster and the engine doesn't heat up when you go fast. So I think that that metaphor needs...”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if you push supply out, then you don't get inflation. You can produce more with less. And I think one expression that people online use a lot is running it hot, right? I think that running it hot is your sort of, if you use that expression, you're conditioning upon what the engine is. And if you're trying to go 60 miles an hour in a car with a handful of horsepower, you're probably running it hot. But if you're trying to go 60 miles an hour in a car with a large number of horsepower, hundreds of horsepower, you're not running it hot, right? That car can handle that speed. And this is the difference between pushing the supply side out versus restricting the supply side. If you push the supply side of the economy out and supply is growing quickly, then demand can grow quickly too, and it's not inflationary. If you're holding the supply side in and the economy can't produce supply to meet demand, then you're going to get inflation. And I think that's the difference. And that's where things like...”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the other major durable trend you mentioned was this idea of deregulation. And just last week, the Federal Reserve put out some initial ask for consultation on this update to the Federal Reserve's perspective on how it contributes to that update on deregulation. I'm curious if you just provide your perspective on that and how you're thinking about it. So So, if you take an economics class, there's supply and demand. And if you hold supply constant and you slam your foot on the gas for demand and you push demand out, you get inflation.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Time spent discussing, is everybody going in this direction? I think that those channels, those pathways were always valid economic pathways, and maybe they were of primary importance sort of before the pandemic, and a lot of people were talking about them. And then during the pandemic, a lot of other things started to matter, mostly related to the pandemic. And then the massive economic support programs that were launched after that. The connection between population aging, demographic growth, and interest rates didn't go away, right? It just, you know, other things occupy our attention, but those pathways are still valid. And I think that we'll see in coming years that they matter again because of the size of the shocks that we've experienced to population growth. Another thing that I think weighs in the interest rate is the improving fiscal deficit. And so, you know, I think that if you look at the fiscal deficit in”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In 2021 to 2023 or so, and then in 2024 to 5-6, that population growth plummeted pretty much to working age population growth is probably pretty close to flat now. And so that was a huge spike up in growth, and then a huge spike down. And just as the neutral interest rate is a function of the equilibrium returns in capital that are affected by productivity, it's also affected by the growth rate of the economy, which is affected by population growth. And so that, in my view, is a very big thing weighing on interest rates. And you see that across the world. We spent many years before the pandemic discussing Japanization of global interest rates, declining fertility rates, declining aging populations around the world, declining population growth, led to lower interest rates in a lot of countries. And there was a lot of”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so look, I think that the AI productivity boom does unambiguously push the neutral rate higher. However, I think there's a lot of other counterbalancing factors that have been weighing on the neutral rate. And so it is the case that if investing becomes more profitable over time, if investing becomes more productive over time, that raises the long-term neutral rate of interest that you get on capital, on investing. And that boosts that boost neutral. But there's other things that have been weighing on it. And one thing that I've been trying to draw attention to that's been weighing on it, I think, quite powerfully, is the change in population growth. We lived through the biggest shocks to the population growth rate in both directions, certainly in my lifetime, probably in the lifetimes of many, many folks in this room. Within the course of a few years, we had a period of massively growing popularity.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Earlier in there, you mentioned this idea of an AI potential productivity boom and how it could be much more durable than something like a negative oil supply shock. And the first thing that comes to my mind there when I think about a durable shock like that is what is its potential impact on the long term economic neutral rate or R star I'd be curious to hear about how what's your perspective on the more long-term forecasts of the neutral rate in light of such a potentially powerful shock positive shock such as the AI productivity boom?”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Two and a half to two and three quarters percent. We're about 75 basis points above that level. So I think it's, sorry, we're about a percentage point above that level right now. I think it's appropriate over the course of this year to just get back to neutral. I don't think the economy needs monetary policy to be slamming on the gas and accelerating the economy like it was in 2021 or 2022. But I also don't think it needs to be holding the economy back. And right now it is modestly restrictive and it is holding the economy back and I don't think that's consistent with the macroeconomic backdrop.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To oil in Iran, but due to the inflation data that we received in between the December summary projections and the March summary projections. That puts me puts my projection at about neutral. So the neutral policy rate is the monetary policy interest rate that's neither stimulative nor accommodative. Right now, I think that's probably about 2.5%.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the last summary of projections, because of the oil shock, that hits the economy very quickly, whereas I think some of these other shocks play out over time. I did raise my inflation projection, my headline inflation projection for this year to 2.7%, right? So I moved it a little bit higher because of the oil shock. However, as I said before, this is not the type of thing that policy should respond to because that happens all upfront and policy effects the economy 12 to 18 months out. It has very oil moving honey or now has very little inflationary consequence 12 to 18 months out. All the inflation happens up front. What does happen 12 to 18 months out is the economy might be weaker because every dollar that people put into filling their gas tanks is a dollar they're not spending on other goods and services. And so that might put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. So the March summary of economic projections, I boosted my policy rate by half a percent, not due to”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Using an entirely different literature, entirely different estimation methods, I calculated 0.5, they calculated 0.3. I think those are probably within noise of each other. They're certainly within confidence bands. I wouldn't be able to reject one in favor of the other. But either of them are very big, and I think very substantial. And I think of the types of shocks that policymakers ought to take into account when we're thinking about the correct settings for monetary policy. So yes, it is the case that we have had a number of negative supply shocks hit the economy. things like oil moving higher. But it's also the case that we have very powerful positive supply shocks hitting the economy too. And unlike oil, I expect some of these like deregulation and AI to be persistent in their disinflationary effects.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would ultimately drag on inflation by about half a percent a year for the next few years. So that's quite chunky. Now, just a couple of weeks ago, there was a new Federal Reserve staff research paper released by two staff economists at the Fed, Danilo Cascaldi Garcia and Matteo Jacob Viello. And what this Fed research paper on deregulation found is they did an entirely different estimation method than the previous literature, and they did an entirely different measurement method for regulations in the previous literature. And when you apply their results to the scope of the deregulatory shock that we've seen over the last 15 months or so, it implies a roughly 0.3% drag on inflation each year for the next two years, right? So that's not just a one-off effect. That's a persistent disinflationary effect from the receding regulatory backdrop.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, I gave a speech in January in Greece where I looked at the literature, the modern literature on regulation, and it's very difficult to sort of quantify the federal regulatory code and turn that into a number in a way that economists would like to do rigorous empirical studies. But I looked at the modern literature that sort of uses AI and machine learning tools to do so. And I calculated that the deregulatory wave that's been hitting the economy over the last 15 months or so.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Shucks that we've experienced. And that's not the case. There are also positive supply shocks that are hitting the economy too. These get a lot of attention too. So one of them is AI, right? AI is a positive supply shock. It increases the productive capacity of the economy. It lets people produce more with less inputs into production. That's a positive supply shock. Another very powerful positive supply shock that's been hitting the economy has been the trend in deregulation. Now, I think this is a group of people who are focused on crypto. Regulations have probably played a large part in a number of your business models and having to deal with those regulations has probably for a number of people in this room at some point slowed you down, reduced the amount of things you can produce, increased the cost of production. And as those regulatory barriers recede, it becomes easier for you to make products that people want to buy. And so as the regulatory backdrop becomes easier, that's a positive supply shock that hits the economy.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other thing you'd be concerned about is if there were a wage price spiral, if prices go higher and then wages go higher and that pushes prices higher again, you get a negative feedback loop that just creates a self-fulfilling inflationary spiral that requires tightening from the monetary authority to offset and to squash. That's not something that we see happening right now because the labor market, as I said before, has been on this very gradual cooling trend for about three years now. And with the labor market very gradually cooling and declining wage pressures, you just are not going to get a wage price spiral. That would be the type of thing that would a central bank would normally respond to. Now you said something else that I'd like to pick up on, which is that we've had a lot of negative supply shocks sort of over time. And I think that there's a tendency to think that those are the only supply.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I'll say a couple things. One is when you think about how these negative supply shocks are hitting the economy, things like oil prices moving higher. As I said before, it affects headline inflation very much in the short term, but as you look further at, it doesn't affect anything. And that is if you get concerned about these negative supply shocks, that's what you would be looking for. You would be looking for a rise in inflation expectations further at in time. And if you look at the inflation swap market, you see that forward inflation expectations a year out, two years out, three years out are all pretty much unaffected by what's been going on. And in fact, a lot of them are lower since the start of them are lower since we met in January, since the FOMC met in January. And so there's been zero bleed through of the negative supply shock of oil prices into inflation expectations further out in time, which again is when monetary policy would be able to affect.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, that idea of looking through an oil shock was something that's really come forth in terms of recent discussions here. It seems like every few years we have some sort of shock that we have to navigate through. And I'm curious if you could just unpack. The discussion seems to be that a lot of these supply shocks seem to go in one direction, one being higher inflation. How do you think about that?”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Move higher in oil from something like what's going on in Iran, the oil purse goes up immediately and headline inflation goes up a lot in the short term. But as you look a year to a year and a half out, it's very unlikely that that causes subsequent effects that are affecting the economy a year to year and a half out, which is when monetary policy can affect the economy. And so that's part of why the classic reasoning of why a central bank should look through an oil shock as the Federal Reserve has historically done.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Monetary policy. Now, a lot of what's been going on in the last few weeks has, of course, been tied to the war in Iran. And I think what's going on in oil prices has spooked a lot of people. And I understand from a trading perspective, from a market's perspective, things whip around wildly in both directions. You get headline ping-pong, and that pushes markets. And if you have levered positions, that can feel very, very intense. But from a monetary policy perspective, We have to make policy for 12 to 18 months from now because there are big lags with which monetary policy hits the economy. If we adjust interest rates, it doesn't feed through into actual economic growth into actual unemployment and inflation for at least a year. So we need to set policy for a year to a year and a half out. And the way that changes in oil prices affect the economy is actually much faster than that. When you get a spike up in oil prices, when you get a...”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, thanks. Look, at the Federal Reserve, we have a dual mandate. We are tasked by Congress with paying attention to inflation, stable prices, and to the labor market. My view is that the inflation side of the mandate has, despite high measured inflation, has not been so problematic because a lot of the inflation excess over target has been a result of some quirks of measurement of things like portfolio management services, which is basically just the stock market going up, biasing the way we measure inflation up by 30 to 40 basis points. Once you correct for those things, I did not view inflation as being overly problematic, whereas the labor market has been on a very gradual trend of weakening over the course of the last three years. That trend has been in place, it's been continual. You see it in increasing difficulty of finding jobs for new entrants to the labor market. You see it in increasing length of time in people spend between jobs during unemployment. And so my view is the economy can bear additional support for the labor market from”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right now, it is modestly restrictive and it is holding the economy back. And I don't think that's consistent with the MAC economic backdrop. What matters when you think about shocks to the supply side, whether they're AI, oil, regulation, no matter what the shock is, what matters when you think about this is nothing”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oil moving hunger now has very little inflationary consequence 12 to 18 months out, all the inflation happens up front. And so that's part of why a central bank should look through an oil shock, as the Federal Reserve has historically done. Forward inflation expectations, a year out, two years out, three years out are all pretty much unaffected by what's been going on. And in fact, a lot of them are lower since the FOMC met in January. My view is that the economy can bear additional support for the labor market from monetary policy. With the labor market very gradually cooling and declining wage pressures, you just are not going to get a wage price spiral that a central bank would normally respond to. When you sort of say something like running it hot, it's wildly imprecise because it's a statement that sort of assumes that supply is constant, that you can't increase the horsepower of the car. I don't think the economy needs monetary policy to be slamming on the gas and accelerating the economy like it was in 2021 or 2022. But I also don't think it needs to be holding the economy back.”
2026-04-01 · Forward Guidance · Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT