YouSaid · the spoken record

Ned Davis

lines on the record: 74
first: 2017-06-15
most recent: 2017-06-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And they just, neither the Democrats nor Republicans would do it. But I think essentially that was a lot of the things we needed to do.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Last bipartisan commission we've had. And almost, I mean, nobody liked it because somebody was getting gored somewhere, was getting something taken away. But I personally felt like that was a great idea.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, there was a commission that, and I think this was Obama's really biggest mistake, but anyway, he had a commission to look at the fiscal monetary structure, Simpson Bowles, and it was bipartisan.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'll Kennedy did it after two recessions, 68 and 60, and Reagan did it after two recessions, 80 and 82. And now we've had a nine-year expansion, and now we're going to stimulate cutting taxes. So I just say there's nothing wrong with the rule. There's nothing wrong with the incentives, but it depends on when it happens, what era, what the cycle is. So that's the problem with having a set mindset.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's an incentive, but it's very small. Ask people if you drop your next dollar from $91 to $70. Would that make you want to work harder? Yeah. And then you say, what about if you went from 39 to 35? They went, not really.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Know, there's a lot, like I said, there's a lot of good ideas out there, I think, though, if you don't put it in a big macro context, if you just take one area and you focus on it, then that's a mistake. So you've got to put it in context. For example, right now I was a huge, well, I'm a huge fan of the Laffer curve. And Kennedy did it and it worked wonderfully, cut rates from 91 to 70. Reagan came in, he cut him from 70 to 70. In two thousand didn't work. And because we were in a different phase of the cycle. So when you have a rule, And everybody's got a rule, a Keynesian rule. Yes, there was a good reason for deficits in bailouts at one point. But it doesn't work at another point in time. So I think this is the problem. With this kind of thing, just getting focused on one area. You've got to put it in context”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, as I said earlier, I started out as a forecaster, and I think that's a good way to lose money and be wrong. So that's one thing I would have gotten into that earlier, obviously. And I do think when you look at charts, just as the pure technician, a lot of times you see what you want to see. And so I think you've got to try to quantify it as much as possible.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I'm in a different industry, or there's a different industry, technology, whatever, that's driving the market every year. So I think it's a fascinating business. I think people should go in it. You know, I love it.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, I got into this business at the beginning of an incredible bull market. So I would say, you know, I've had a lot of luck from a timing standpoint. I could have quit this business a long time ago, and I continue to work. And the reason is because I love it. And what I love about it is that one year it's energy that's driving the stock market. And the next year it's housing. So I got to be a housing expert. And the next year it's geopolitical and it's just always changing. So I'm a person that loves to learn the world's changing and it's fascinating. I can get an education, a new education every year, and I get paid well to do it. And the markets are fascinating. And, you know, to go into an industry, let's say you go into the steel industry and you're stuck there for 40 or 50 years.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I try to work out. We actually have a gym at our office, and so I try to do that. I play a little golf and then, you know, we live on the west coast of Florida and we do quite a bit of boating. My younger boys are both big fishermen, so I pretty much have to get out on the water. I don't fish”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, going to protect it. And that's one of my key rules. Well, the Fed kept easing and the market kept going down. So I didn't, this is not a mistake because I saw the trend turning down. And I saw the sentiment where it was with the housing bubble. And so that didn't throw me off. But in the late 1990s, one of Gould's indicators was the dividend yield on the Dow and he said when it gets down below 3%, the market's in trouble. Well, it did that in late 1996. And I think that's one of the reasons the Greenspan said irrational exuberance. But the market kept going up. So that was an indicator that I think had never failed. And it failed in that case. And it got me too cautious too soon.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, again, I said one of my rules is don't fight the Fed. Well, the Fed was tightening right into 2000 and into 2007. And as soon as, well, as Bear Stearns blew up, they started easing. So you say, well, the market can't go down because the Fed's going to...”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, here's the thing, you know, in every age, there's something that comes along that catches people's narrative. And what you want to do is be in a position that when that changes, that you can take advantage of it. And you'll read rules. I have rules, and I teach rules in philosophy. But again, if they get too popular, they quit working. And so that's what makes us a fascinating business. It makes it so difficult to forecast. As Alan Abelson had this line one time, and I loved it, he said, just about the time you learn how to play the game, they changed the rules. So I think there's a lot of truth in that. And so I think what we need to do is stay flexible, disciplined, and go against whatever gets overly done.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess there's some kind of feel, but if you go through enough charts, I think you get the same kind of feel. So no, I don't think I've lost much from that.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not only that, I had a big wall in my office basically of my wallpaper were charts that I put up and marked by hand. And now, of course, everything is technology. So I'd say that's the biggest change.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some other fiction I really don't read a lot. I read just recently my kids may read Boys in the Boat, which is a story of rowing in Washington State that went on and won the Olympics. And it was a fascinating book.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I read sports. I read about sports. I don't like to discuss politics, but I like politics. So I read it, it's gotten more and more fascinating.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Edwardson McGee, yes, and Charles McKay had the extraordinary popular delusions in the madness of crowd. There's been some other books written about manias. I think these are all very useful. books. A guy named Sobel wrote a book on the big board, which is a history of the New York Stock Exchange. So he's gone over a lot of periods. So I like history books. And then Marty Zwig had winning on Wall Street and Norman Fosbett Market Logic. And those would be some of my favorites.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I know him and I used to read his work. And again, he's a level-headed, and he's a nice guy. He's an honest guy. And he helped a lot of people in the business that got into it and taught him stuff.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I really like Bob Farrell and Merrill Lynch. Bob Farrell had an opinion, but he would give both sides and sort of lean one way or the other. And that really appealed to me. I just did not like the approach that the world's all black or all white. It's 100% bullish or sell everything. I just don't think the world worked that way. And he was able to pull it off. He had a lot of good rules.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I really. I read a lot. I try not to, again, is the thing about being at the game, the crowd psychology. I try to let my charts talk to me. And so I try not to read too many competitors' work.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right now, people still doing technical analysis that I do like I do successfully, Jim Stack, who's InvestTech. And there's a guy Dan Sullivan who does the charter service that has a real-time track record that's terrific.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mentioned Hamilton Bolton. I mentioned Edson Gould, who are two really outstanding pioneers, guy named Marty Zweiga talked about, and we did some research in conjunction with each other. Norman Fosbach, another guy that did a lot of to try to put technicals into studies and test them historically. Stock market logic was the name of his book.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I'm really very persistent in my work. I've been doing this for 50 years. I'm very focused on my work. But I try to have some balance in my life. And I have four kids and two grandkids. And I don't know exactly what role I had except being there. But I'm very proud of them. So I think that gives my life some balance.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And John Templeton mentioned earlier, he was also supposed to be a fundamentalist, and he described the market. And another one up. Buffett said that it really struck home with me. He said, you know, it's not that I like pessimism. I just like the values that pessimism produces. So there you've put together now fundamentals, which are values, and you've put together sentiment, which I think is technical. So you do when there's a lot of pessimism, you tend to get better values. And when there's a lot of euphoria, you tend to get an overvalued market. So it's really, there's not really a struggle here in the long run between a technician and a fundamentalist.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sometimes clouds part, and it's a good time to buy. And by the way, our poll got very, very cautious before the election. And Mark's done pretty well since before the election.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not a fundamental thing at all. In fact, to me, it's a very technical thing because when everybody's optimistic, they've already bought. And so who's left to buy? And when everybody's pessimistic, again, you run off all the nervous sellers. So you've got strong sellers of stock. So that's the idea is actually the same thing that Buffett did. We try to put these sentiment poles together to see when there's fear and greed, and we try to tell ourselves, oh, I know the news is terrible, but...”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's why we put together these sentiment composites, and they ask Warren Buffett one time the secret of success. And, you know, he's a fundamental individual value investor.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nothing wrong with passive investing. Nothing wrong with Portfillard insurance. There's nothing wrong with gross stocks. It's just when they get too popular.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, after Al Gore invented the internet, no, and we had all the dot-com stocks. I thought, gosh, this has got to be A bubble certainly. And of course, it continued for a number of years and it's even bigger today. But so I think you can't just say it's extremely popular. You have to wait till the trends give up a little bit. You have to wait till the Fed becomes a little more hostile. And at that point, I think you make the bet passive investing is done. And I think it's a late phase.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's going to be a hard, it's going to be very difficult to beat the averages. So they're charging high fees to be active managers, and some of them are very successful. But on average, they're not doing any better than the market averages. So I think John Bogle had a great idea that to put these index together and low fees. And this would be a better investment for most people over the long run. And I think that's true. However, I noticed today I just happened to see a Bloomberg thing where there was a chart and they said there's more index funds now than there are stocks. And so again, this is a popular idea. It's a good idea. Nothing wrong with it. But if it gets too popular, it will blow up just like all the other big ideas do.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, it was concentrated by Wall Street banks, and now there's a lot of independent firms that are doing a great job. So I don't know, it has changed. Certainly commissions have changed. They were fixed when I got into the business. So it's gotten harder, but the business has changed. It's always changing.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think they were really any competitors doing technical research. I mentioned earlier Hamilton Bolton of the bike credit analyst. They did a little bit of technical, a lot of monetary. And certainly they're one of our competitors. I'd like to compete with ISI, Ed Hyman, because. And there's now Cornerstone Macro research. There's RenMac, Jeff DeGraf's a friend of mine. So I would say those all now have a technical element to them.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, well, you know, we like to say we go with the flow. In other words, we go with the crowd until they reach an extreme and begin to reverse. And it's at that small moment of time where it pays to be a contrarian. So it's a bad mistake to say I'm just going to go against the crowd. That will not get you anywhere. You've got to really wait for extremes.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's just totally crowd psychology is really, really strong. It's overwhelming. It takes all of us over. And it's really a very different than an individual psychology.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, I think it was extraordinary popular madness and crowds McKay wrote it and he said an individual taken by themselves is rational. When you put the individual in a crowd, it becomes a blockhead”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are you Knicks fans? And I'm in New York, and they'll say yes, and I'll say, well, how many of you have ever gone to a game and thought the referee favored the other team? And, of course, nobody raises their hand because we see what we want to see. We want the Knicks or whoever our team is to win. So we always go to the game and think the referees were for the other team. When the NBA's actually done studies that show, if anything, it's very slight, but there is a small favor, there's a small advantage for the home team in the calls in an average game. So this is something we see with our own eyes. So it's very easy. You have a position, you want it to work. You tend to read things that confirm your opinion and you don't read things that may not”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, we have another expression that we like to use in my shop is we all make our own reality. And this was shocking the first time I heard it because I figured reality's reality. But sometimes when I'll be before an audience, I'll say, how many of you are sports fans? Let's say.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, again, I was trying to outline my philosophy mainly for clients, but that spending time on trying to forecast and be right is interesting. I certainly continue to do that. But really, the focus should be on how to make money. And so, and again, we use the tape, the trend, the sentiment, and the Federal Reserve Board to make money. But I think one of the big things is, as I mentioned it earlier, is the magic of compound interest. And this is just a simple math thing that every kid should learn in school. But again, if you have a drawdown like 29 to 32 in stocks was 84%, you have to go up 525% to get back to even, and it took many, many years. So... We didn't want big drawdowns. That's the key to making money.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it just depends on who your survey is. If it's futures traders, they're going to be pretty quick. CEOs don't change their opinion that often. So it depends. There are small surveys. And if Trump proved anything, he proved that polls aren't always right. So what we do, we look at a lot of polls. We also look at what people are doing in terms of option trading, how optimistic people are, upside volume versus downside volume. A lot of measures of activity. And we put all these together in a composite model. I think we, one of the ones we use has 28 indicators in it. So if some of them are fake news, then you hope the majority picks up the correct picture.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think clearly the soft tends to be leading the hard. So the fact that the soft is strong and the hard is weak is not necessarily a bad sign. However, So it's a lot different thing. So, yes, I think the hard debt is going to come on, but not by much.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, Big Mo is just a trend of 100 industry groups, 100 sub industry groups, and it's the cyclical trend, so we're talking a year or two kind of trends. But put the MO in there. We also look at rates of change, how fast a group is rising or falling. And momentum indicators are trends sensitive, but they're not exactly trend indicators. So they can be early. So when you put the trend following indicators and the momentum indicators together, I think you can get a little closer to tops and bottoms. And Big Mo right now shows about 69% of those industry groups are still in strong uptrends. And that's a decent figure. It's high neutral, I would say, mildly bullish. And we use below 56% as a warning sign.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and that's what we do. I mean, that's what my business does pretty much. And we actually analyze the economy pretty much the same way we do the stock market. We use cinnamon indicators. We use trend indicators. In the economy, there's a lot of indicators that tend to lead the economy. So we put most of our emphasis on the leading economic indicators. And when they're turning up and are strong, then that's a good sign. I do this somewhat in the stock market. There's certain groups and sectors that tend to lead the market. And so we put our main emphasis on those, the trend of those. Also, we look for the economy or the stock market. We look for the Federal Reserve Board and what are they doing? Because they control the cost of money and the availability of money. And if you're looking at supply and demand, which is what technical analysis is all about, how can you ignore the Federal Reserve Board? You really can't.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, if you're a Chartist and that's your background, you can see formations, you see demand on a chart, or you see trend lines, or you just use stop losses below important lows. And if the market turns down, you just get stopped out. Other people might want to right now the protection, the insurance, portfolio insurance for portfolios, the VIX is very low. VIX is how much it costs to buy options. The VIX is very low. You can buy some puts to protect your portfolio, some hedge fund short stocks. You can put some money in cash and wait for pullback. So there's lots of things you can do.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Euphoric. But this is an early phase of euphoria. So I don't necessarily think this is the end, but I think you can certainly see Euphoria. And that's a high-risk phase.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, I think it was Templeton that said boom markets are born and pessimism they rise on skepticism, they mature on optimism and they die on euphoria. And I think that's pretty much what we've seen since 2009. We've gone through those phases. And I think after the election, for whatever reason, we went into the euphoric stage. And you can see this in all kinds of consumer confidence, business confidence, CEO confidence.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It got too popular, the market got too high, there was too much optimism. That is a terrible combination. That's the lesson to learn.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's tricky because you want to learn the correct lessons. You don't want to learn the bad lessons. And it's a little hard to know which it is. So what happens is there'll be a period of time. And there was a mistake during that period of time. And everybody learns and says, well, I won't make that mistake again. And then times change and periods change and erase change. And everybody's learned the lesson of that period, but not the next period. So again, I think the real lesson is studying history is seeing mania as bubbles, seeing extremes from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism and how these end up, how they end up. And that's the lesson. It's not just portfolio insurance is something I'll never do again. That's not really the lesson. The lesson is.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's a good question because it happens to be the one piece of my philosophy that has changed over the years because there's a lot of risk takers that have made a lot of money. But what they do is they manage their risk. So they'll take a big position. But if it goes sour or the news changes, they get out. So it's still a matter of risk management. But I think the term risk averse was came from being in the market from 1968 to 82, frankly.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, it's complicated when you say those things together because people think, well, discipline is the opposite of flexible. But when we use the term flexible, we're really thinking about open-mindedness. And this is one of the curses in my life or one of the gifts in my life is that if there's a debate, I could pretty well take both sides and do a pretty good job.”
2017-06-15 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ned Davis: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source