YouSaid · the spoken record

Neil Dutta

lines on the record: 119
first: 2023-01-27
most recent: 2023-01-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And so one of the things that Ethan gave me a lot of latitude to do was just kind of service the equity sales force at Merrill Lynch because a lot of his focus was really, I think, more on the fixed income side, more on the Fed. So I had a lot of sort of opportunity because it was kind of this runway that I just had. And what I would do is try my best to kind of remember what the equity sales force loved about Rosie and try to apply that in my own way. So one of the things that I think that Rosie did really.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, as I mentioned, Rosie had left. I think it was really in March of 2009. It was a classic. Bottom, exactly. He left at his peak. And I think in September of that year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch at that point hired Ethan Harris. Who I think he was at Lehman Barclays. And so I worked with him for. Until 2012. And Lehman was a huge sort of fixed income shop. And that's where Ethan's focus really was. And obviously, you know, Merrill was more of an equity shop.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And think about, I mean, what was notable about that sort of post financial crisis recovery was just How steady it was, you know, sort of month in, month out, continued declines in the unemployment rate. And if you go back to some of the literature around the Swedish banking crisis, sort of the Nordic banking crisis, it was sort of six, seven years you cleared out the excess and things start to pick up. And that's pretty much what happened, right? I mean, by 2013, the household deleveraging was basically over and the economy was gaining a lot of momentum.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, Japan is an interesting example because, of course, after the financial crisis, that was a very prominent example of what the US could turn into. We're going the way of Japan. But I think in many respects, because that example existed, that's why we, in fact, didn't end up that way. We sort of cleared out our banking system. We recapitalized our banks very rapidly compared to Japan. Obviously, Bernanke is a student of what happened then.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Stocks kept going up. And so I feel like over my career, right? I mean, I've kind of started working under Rosie, right? But I feel like over time I've actually been pigeonholed more as the more market optimist, economic optimist. So let me channel.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And I think that sort of set a lot of the kind of trajectory over the next several years, like after I left Merrill and when I started at Renmac. And just if you couldn't figure out by 2010 or 2011 that the sky is not always falling, you'll never figure it out. I mean, because we had so many things happen. We had financial crisis, double-dip recession fears, right? There was that debt default thing, and then China hard landing. That was like this perennial thing. And European sovereign debt crisis.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think very highly of him also. And one of the best things that he says is stock markets usually go up. That is a 100% factual statement. Yeah. Not always.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And so, in some respects, I was able to, and we used a lot of the same framework that he used, looking at a lot of the same indicators in terms of, you know, Rosie would talk a lot about leading indicators, the ECRI index, and a lot of them had been turning around. So we had basically said, look, things are getting better and it sort of reinforced the upturn in markets.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it was actually an interesting time because when Rosie left, things were starting to turn around a little. And I remember I wrote a piece basically, I think, in June 2009, basically saying that the recession was over. And at the time it was a controversial call. But that was when we didn't even have a head of economics. Because there was a bit of a sort of murky, you know, let's say six to nine month period where Rosie had left and it had been a, you know, and then Ethan Harris had yet to come in. Right. So we kind of had a lot of freedom in terms of what we wanted to do. And, you know, so I wrote that piece. It got a lot of attention, I think. Yeah, I mean, it was a good call. And I think it was interesting because here you had Rosie, who was a noted market bear at the time.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why is that? I have no idea, but I think the tidbits was a play on Tidbits, right? Tim Hortons, it's sort of their version of Dunkin' Donuts, I guess. So he gave me some freedom in writing that for.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now it's breakfast with Dave. Back then, it used to be called Rosie's Morning Tidbits. And I think that was a play on, because, you know, Rosie was Canadian. It's Canadian. Was and still is. And still is. And in my career, I feel like...”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A belge bracket like that. You're obviously writing under the lead analyst, right? So my name would go on the reports, but they would be under his, of course. And he gave me a little bit more freedom as time went on, and I would end up writing his morning note, which was the widely read, you know, rosy tidbits. Remember, I mean, breakfast with date.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because he was always on the road, particularly in 07 and 08. With Rosie, it was kind of wrong, wrong, and then spectacularly right, right? And so when he became spectacularly right, you know, he was on the road constantly. And so one of the things I would do for him was just kind of feed him. Ideas feed him charts that kind of reinforced his thesis that he could then go and present to clients while he was on the road. So a lot of it was sort of getting in the weeds on charts and data, but that's what I would do for him. And then, you know, as I got better at that, he kind of gave me a little bit more freedom in terms of allowing me to write. And obviously, if you work in...”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so when I started as an analyst under Rosie, I was basically a junior economist. I mean, a lot of, I mean, one of the great things about Rosie, I mean, you know, it was just he is, I think, one of the best examples of what a Wall Street economist should be. We had this weekly piece called The Market Economist, right? And that, I think, is very important because he was a markets economist. He wasn't a PhD, and he didn't think like one either. And what I think he understood And that's what Rosie was really great at. I mean, he was always on the road. I mean, gosh, I don't even remember when I saw him.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, not under my name. I mean, we sort of run that as a company policy. But yeah, I mean, I tweet. I try to put information out there. What we try to do, of course, is to make sure we're sending it out a little bit later than our clients get, because then, you know, why pay for research in the first place if you can get it for free on Twitter? But yeah, I mean, you know, we started that account maybe in 2015. Yeah, we've been growing it ever since. I see”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And Gene basically wrote a weekly economics column. So that was my sort of first foray into just analysis in terms of economic data, right? Like some of the tools that people would use back then, right? Haver Analytics was a big one. And so Jean kind of introduced me to that.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The economics editor at Barron's noted libertarian enthusiast now, but. Yeah, I mean, that was back when I guess Alan Abelson was running the up and down Wall Street column now. Obviously, it's Randy. Right.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But one of the good things about being NHR, Barry, is you kind of know where all the jobs in the organization are. So fast forward about a year and a job had opened up as an economic research analyst, someone you may know, David Rosenberg. Of course. So that was actually my first foray into economics, and the rest is history.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I was actually thinking about being a lawyer. So I ended up taking my LSAT, my senior year at NYU. And I did okay, but I didn't do well enough to go to a school that I really wanted to go to. And so at that point, I was kind of scrambling and I was like, I need to get into the financial industry because I'm in New York. I have a passion for finance. But it was kind of late. So a lot of the investment banking analysts had already lined up their gigs. So I ended up getting a job at Merrill Lynch. As a compensation analyst in human resources. Really? Yes. So I did that. I started that in 2005 after I graduated.”
2023-01-27 · Masters in Business · Neil Dutta on Economic Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source