YouSaid · the spoken record

Odd Arne Westad

lines on the record: 52
first: 2026-06-07
most recent: 2026-06-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“At least of some leaders, of thinking through those kinds of issues and deciding we may have to take a few steps back, we may have to find compromise where it's possible to find compromise. We have to play for stability, even if it's not the kind of stability that we ideally would have wanted to see. So those are the kinds of things that I find missing up to now. Can we get that? For sure. It's not given that we are in some kind of pre-war situation. But I'm fearful that if we don't start acting now on these kinds of issues, then we could get into really dicey territory very soon.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Strategic interests really consist of. And then going from there, trying to understand often the very different basis on which other leaders in other countries are going to act. Instead, we are facing a world very similar to 1914, where leaders let events run away with them. I mean, that they are incapable of finding out how are we going to, on the one hand, pursue our own strategic interests as best we see them. On the other hand, create the kind of at least medium stability in international affairs where we can avoid great power war. And that inability, I think, which you can explain, and I'm sure future historians hopefully writing about how we avoided war in 2026 or 2027, when they explain that, I think they're going to put a lot of emphasis on the ability, after all.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is the problem. I mean, as you and I know, because we've been teaching in the Grand Strategy Program at YL and trying to get to grips with some of these issues in a more generalized discussion with wonderful undergraduates who have a fresh mind on these kinds of methods. It's difficult. But the problem that we are facing at the moment, in my view, is that for all the great powers, that strategic understanding of the other powers and certainly about one's own strategic objectives seems to be pointing downward in terms of understanding rather than upward. And I think some of this is connected to domestic issues and the preoccupation with domestic issues and how that works. Some of it is connected to personalities, to people who are coming into power and they're finding it impossible to stake out in relatively simple terms, which is what you have to do what their own”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, some of the Western leaders who are more successful with regard to Eastern Europe, and for that matter, the Soviet Union in the latter stage, in raising human rights issues and problems, were those who were able to do so in private and to do it persistently and consistently in terms of dealing with Eastern European and Soviet leaders. I think overall that is the policy we should follow with regard to China as well.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Conflict over the Nobel Peace Prize to Insha Bo. I know what it had a complete retreat in terms of Chinese pressure, that it's easier to say things in private to the Chinese about human rights than it is to say it in public. And I think I would understand that. I do think that in terms of the direction that you now have in terms of global economic power, I can see why many leaders are unwilling to engage publicly with China on human rights. But one of the lessons to make that comparison for once in this discussion that we can draw”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's been part of the approach that Xi and Ping has had to international affairs ever since he came into power. And he has more to go on now, as we have explored, in terms of being able to say that. So how should one react to that? I think it depends obviously on who you are and what kind of situation that you are in. It's somewhat easier for countries further away from China, although they may not themselves always believe that, to stick to these kinds of principles, valuable principles in public than it is for countries that are closer to each other or more dependent on China. Under any circumstance, I think it is important, and you will know this, to differentiate among two kinds of approaches here. One is what you declare in public. And I can see good reasons why political leaders in many countries, including in European countries, as we saw, by the way, in my own country in Norway, over the”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you saw in the first reports that we have of the meetings between Xin Ping and Putin how significant the energy aspects of that relationship now have become. And it gives Russia opportunities in order to sell more of its energy to China longer term in order to achieve that kind of strategic stability that Xi Jinping so often talks about. And it's very, very interesting to see the consequences that that has for the Sino-Russian relationship as well as China's worries. So, I mean, to answer your question more directly, could we see a Chinese attempt at forcing the Straits of Homus open? Absolutely. There is nothing else that China could do at the point when it really starts to run low on oil. It would kill the Chinese economy and they will not allow that to happen.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We haven't got there yet for one good reason you already referred to it, and that is China's strategic oil reserves, which are very, very significant and which will carry them too in the short-term future. But it's absolutely clear that China cannot allow another great power to control its essential access to energy. It just will not happen. Now, I think American leaders realize that. I mean, there is strategic stupidity and strategic stupidity. I mean, this choking of Hormuz forever, trying to control China through controlling its oil inputs, I don't think it's on the book, even with this American administration. But of course, the longer that blockade goes on, the more people in China will think exactly along the lines of what you have said, that the real aim here is to prevent China from controlling its own energy future.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With taking over Greenland. So this is going to be significant. Will it be in terms of potential the cause for a greater conflagration? At the moment, it doesn't look like that. But I do think that if, for instance, there were going to be a direction, I think quite likely over the next generation from the Chinese side, that's going to emphasize China's role in transport and communications across the North Pole. Then, of course, that strategic picture will change. And it will change to becoming perhaps the most important communications area in the world, a little bit like the Homo Straits or the Straits of Malacca are today.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think when it comes to the Nordic countries and when it comes to Northern Europe as a whole, I think the main point is to have a better coordination both of foreign policy and maybe especially at this point of defense policy amongst them. I mean, I think that is critically important because, as you say, it's very clear to me that the Arctic area, Britain large, is going to have mainly, unfortunately because of climate change, is going to have a much greater significance over the next generation than what it has had before. And you see that when you're in China, when you talk to Chinese leaders about this, this is one of their main interests with regard to Europe has to do with the northern areas, has to do with communications, has to do with resources. And of course, you see it even more clearly in terms of Donald Trump's somewhat farcical, but still, I think, genuine preoccupation.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are the only great powers that really have an ongoing border conflict amongst themselves? And that conflict, as we have seen very recently, could easily end in a greater war, in a greater confrontation, as it has already done in the past. That worries me a lot. And I spend a lot of time both when I'm in Beijing and elsewhere talking about that relationship. I think in Europe and in Britain we do not pay enough attention to that critical relationship, both in terms of the potential instability that is there, but also the overall significance of this in terms of the future.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really worried about relations between China and India. They are bad now. There has been this idea in the United States, and I've seen it reflected in Britain as well, that because of Trump's policy emphasizing trade advantages with regard to India, that India would pull closer to China. Don't wait for it. I mean, it's not going to happen. China and India are locked in a conflict that is really, really difficult to resolve. A very important part of it is Pakistan. I mean, India, especially under Modi, but I think any future Prime Minister that I can imagine is going to be set on being the predominant power within its own region, within South Asia. And as long as China is there backing up its regional rival, Pakistan, that is going to be very difficult. That's what creates a kind of relationship here that is really, really problematic. And in addition to that, China and India”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think both Nigeria and Asia are going to be massively important when you look at generation down the road. Indonesia is going to be by far the predominant country in what is the most successful region in the world in terms of growth, Southeast Asia. And Nigeria, if it is able to avoid tearing itself apart over its own domestic internal conflicts, of which, of course, there are many, is also extremely well placed for economic development, both in and by itself, but also because it is the center of a much larger region in West Africa that is growing very fast.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For sure, for African countries themselves as well, but gives an enormous amount of potential when you think about its slightly more long term.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think it depends on the timeframe, Alison, that you look at this true. So I think the first beneficiary of that kind of development, what we see in healthy demographic profile, a development Basic education, an element of involving people in terms of the economic transformation. The region that is best placed, in my view, is Southeast Asia by far. I think we're going to see the highest growth potential in that region compared to anywhere else in the world over the next half generation or so. I think India is not very far behind. The big question is what's going to happen in Africa. I mean, as you know, last year, 2025 was the first year in human history where we had no natural population growth in any country outside of Africa. And the consequences of that are going to be enormous in the longer run, which basically means that we will find, predominantly, we will find young people in one continent only. And of course, that is going to have a tremendous impact in terms of reduction and in terms of where things are actually happening. Not in ways that are unproblematic.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So there is a great need to catch up. That's why China needs two things it needs peace in order to be able to do that. And it needs to be able to deal with the consequences of its own policy. First and foremost, in terms of demographics. But there are other economic challenges as well. If you were to ask me, Rory, I would say that if you think about the longer-term future, I don't think either United States or China are particularly well placed to become the predominant great powers of the future. If you look at a country like India over time, I think they are much better placed to achieve the kind of integrated form of development over time that China has benefited from more recently, not least because they would have a much younger population.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think the general direction now, when we look at what's happening inside the United States and what's happening inside of China, is that China relatively speaking will do quite well over the next decade. But there are significant problems on the Chinese side as well. You mentioned demographics. I mean, Chinese demographics is an absolute disaster. So that could be said for a lot of countries, but it's much worse in China because of the speed with which it will happen, because of the, in my view, misguided one-child policy. I mean, even people who are mathematically challenged like myself can figure out what happens to your population when you have a one-child policy. The problem is that at half that then will remain after a generation, many of them will be old and sick. China will be the first country in the world that is old before it's rich. I mean, the Chinese GDP per capita is still only about one seventh of what it is in the United States.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“National economic development. And I think that's what we I think there are lots of things we can learn from China when it comes to long term planning in terms of how they have over a very short period of time been able to catapult the biggest country in the world in terms of population out of poverty. They are proud of that. And there are good reasons why they're proud of it. And we should learn from some of the directions that they have taken. But the lesson is not autarianism. The lesson is being capable of uniform action that would also be in place some years down the line. That is the big challenge.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Authoritarian root. But it is a success of planning. And the question is whether democratic systems are capable of thinking in terms of medium term, at least, hopefully also long-term planning. Now, I rarely use this term, as Rory will know, because we have been teaching together that history shows. But history does show in this case that if you have democracy without the ability to think long term, to have some degree of priority set at the national level, you end up in a lot of trouble, right? But a good version of this is that democracies have had the capacity in the past. Britain is a really good example of this. To learn from history with regard to these issues and understand that even in a very competitive democratic electoral environment, it is a good thing to have longer-term plans.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's certainly what the current Chinese leadership wants us to believe and has been able to sell quite successfully to many people in China, not everyone. I constantly meet people who are deeply skeptical of that authoritarian argument in China. In many cases, I'm willing to voice the skepticism. But overall, it's not difficult if you live in China and look at what's happening in the United States of late to say, thank you very much. I much prefer the kind of system that we live under, even if it's non-democratic, because it's stable, it's safe, it seems to deliver year-on-year economic improvement for most people. It seems to be better able to deal with issues such as inequality. I think that's a surface judgment, but it's a judgment that you can see being made. So I think the main issue is not that we should try to understand what has happened in China or elsewhere as a success of”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is really difficult at the moment because the American guarantee, the Article 5 guarantee under the NATO Treaty, in many ways is no longer believable. So that integration has to happen much more quickly than most people, I think, foresee at the moment. And Britain, of course, also needs to be a part of that for the sake of its own defense.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More surprising, I think, in a European context is that so little is done to try to deal with the consequences of this rapid change, that it's only very recently that you have found the large-scale movements in terms of the major European countries towards looking at their own industries, looking at developing an industrial policy, developing the kind of integration within the European Union, which could be Europe's greatest strength in order to facilitate research and development and the project development that comes out of that. And then finally, and perhaps most importantly, right at the moment, we're in now, an integrated European defense, which I think is overdue. I mean, hopefully as a leg within NATO, but if needed be, even outside of NATO, the way that alliance has worked up to now, the European security situation.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, the main issue is what you pointed to in terms of the speed with which these transformations have taken place. I mean, the speed of the rise of China, and I think other rising powers following not far behind China, such as India, it's not only the dimensions in it, it is just how quickly it has happened. So it's not surprising that other countries, maybe especially Europe, find it very, very difficult to catch up. I mean, I often make this point when I'm in China that there's an old-fashioned European myself. I do find it difficult to catch up. As I sometimes feel in the United States, which I then used to make the point that the United States and China, at least in some respects, for instance, with regard to technology, have more in common than what either of them have with Europe, certainly at this point. So it's not surprising that people find it difficult to catch up.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Others would be able to take advantage of these technologies, especially in military terms, and turn them against their enemies better than what they would be able to do. And this was one of the biggest problems in 1914, was that debilitating fear, very much technology dependent, that you found when things were starting to move towards war towards the end of July 1914.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I remember when I was working in London in the early 2010s, and some of People were saying industrial policy, isn't that like the nineteen fifties? It doesn't belong to our time. And then you see how quickly things have changed, including to a very high extent for Britain itself. So that is a similarity. The other similarity that I find is with regard to technology, both civilian and military technology. The world around 1900 went through a technological revolution, the like of which the world hadn't seen up to then. Telephone, telegraph, railways, steamships, you know, the first aircraft, all that kind of stuff. And people just weren't able to handle it. I mean, very similar to the kind of situation that we have now with AI and other forms of technological transformations. Instead of creating a better connected world, what happened back then and what is happening now, I think, is that it filled people with fear. Fear that...”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a good question. I mean, it was actually the end of globalization or globalizations that first got me interested in writing this book because it seemed to me that their own moment is so similar to what we had in the early 20th century with a very long period of globalization economically, socially, that had been going on for a very, very long time and it seemed to be very successful for most of the countries involved until what was then the predominant powers started turning against it because they felt that globalization was not working for them. Just like the United States in many ways was the leader in trying to break away from a globalizing international economic system that the United States itself had created in the middle and late 20th century. And that is really striking. I mean, how quick those processes can be, right? I mean.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For their own interests, for their own strategic satisfaction. And that's a dangerous game. I mean, this is very, very similar to what we saw before 1914. And I worry about it quite intensely today. I mean, this is one of the reasons why the Middle East, for instance, you have worked a lot on, that we are seeing today. I think in a global sense, it's entirely different from what we saw only a few years ago. And all of that has happened over the last two to three years.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's exactly the kind of fragmentation that we had in the early 20th century as well. It's part of the challenges of multipolarity is that you have a diffusion of power at all levels. And what we saw in the early 20th century, I mean part of the reason why these challenges are so difficult to handle, was exactly that, that you had medium or even smaller countries that engaged in behavior that if you had had, as we had back in the 19th century, more of an understanding among the great powers about rules of the road and general behavior probably would not have happened. I mean, it's part of that age of fragmentation that we live in today, that you see that kind of behavior. And then you see great powers, as in the US relationship with Israel, that are trying to draw on what these middle powers are doing.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That American resources up to recently and European resources are bound up to the Ukrainian conflict rather than looking more closely at China's own neighborhoods. But I think on balance, and this is actually rather important, on balance, I think China would be in favor of a ceasefire in Ukraine.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a multipolar world today. I mean, it wasn't the Chinese that got the Russians to invade Ukraine. It's something that the Russians decided to do for the worst possible motives themselves. And then they got stuck. The Chinese have been gently pushing for some time to find some kind of end to the active war, meaning some kind of ceasefire. I'm sure that came up during the conversations in Beijing now as well. The Chinese were surprised by the lack of success of the Russian military with regard to Ukraine. I remember meeting one Chinese leader at the provincial level who was explaining to me that, you know, he said it's really hard to explain to the comrades, he said, why the Russian army, which we had such tremendous respect for, ended up in this kind of situation in Ukraine, right? And that, I think, informs the Chinese point of view. It's not very high up on the Chinese agenda. China in many ways likes.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I think with regard to Iran, I think the Chinese point of view is almost entirely connected to the fact that so much of China's energy needs come out through the Straits of Homo. So they need that blockade in all of its forms to end and set up a free flow of oil and gas out of the Gulf. I think that is the key aim for China. The worry on the Chinese side is that the longer the US blockade goes on, the more of a hold, more of control on China's critical energy needs, the United States is able to get, is able to be in a position to control. That worries China a great deal. from Xi Jinping's perspective. When it comes to war in Ukraine, I think this is a typical example of why we are living.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not at the front line, and out of fear that this could be a further destabilizing factor in a global sense is much needed.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Kind of situation where easily I think if something goes wrong in Russia's wars of aggression, of which there have been a few now, that could lead in the direction not just of a wider war, but also that China would be, and the United States for that matter, could be drawn much more directly into this conflict. So that's the reason why it's so important to get a ceasefire with regard to Ukraine. Not a ceasefire that accepts Russia's land grab, not a ceasefire that leaves Ukraine out in the cold. Ukraine needs to be integrated in a European setting as quickly as possible. And Russia needs to be excluded from meaningful interactions with the West until it has been willing to negotiate a full peace agreement that the Ukrainians would also be willing to support. But that's not the same thing as saying that we don't need a ceasefire. I think a ceasefire, given what has happened,”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's impossible to rule that out, Teliso. I don't think it's highly likely at this point, but clearly things could happen as long as that war goes on, that could put us in a much more difficult situation among great powers than what we are seeing at the moment. It's the whole framework around this that worries me. And again, I think the parallel from the early 20th century is quite striking. In Ukraine, you have a great power in decline, which Russia most definitely is on most scores, which has quarrels with almost all of its neighbors, not just Ukraine. I mean, look at the Baltics, look at Poland further away. And that great power is allied, or in this case, Judo allied, to the most important rising power in the world that happens to be just next door. In Germany's case, Austria, in Russia's case, China. So you have that.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Within an echo chamber to a much higher extent than any other international leader that I know of. And Putin, of course, although I think his circle in many ways is actually wider than what Xi Jinping says, is caught in some of the same trap because of his insistence on the war in Ukraine. And it's only those who pass muster in terms of supporting that war fully and totally. That would get any kind of credence in the Kremlin at the moment. And this limits political choices. And I think you see that more clearly when you look at the kind of public output that you have from both of these two sides.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think it's really important to be able to do that. I mean, in original, if you can, but even in translation, it's easy to get translations, as you know these days, even though they might not always be the most accurate. So I think on the Chinese side, one of the most important issues to pick up is exactly what we talked about. I mean, how domestically oriented most of the discussions within China are. But also the level of fear that you now have on the Xi Jinping's leadership that anyone who is stepping out of line would be punished for doing that. Also, how difficult it is to get the top leadership's attention? I mean, this is actually one of the things that remind me of the world before 1914. Not that there was a lack of communication understanding, but how difficult it was because of the way the political systems were set up to get the top leadership's attention when it really matters. Xi Jinping seems to me today to be existing.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is a different story. He seems to me to be overly preoccupied with what happens domestically in the United States and very little willing to deal with other issues, which in many ways mirror Xi Jinping. I mean, some of my friends in China, Soto Woj are referring to Xi Jinping as China's Donald Trump, because it breaks all the rules. He is much more preoccupied with his own battles inside China than what with international affairs and so on. So it's a general problem, I think, Alistair, in terms of the quality of leadership that we are facing at the moment.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very easy to take refuge into one or the other explanation for international affairs, either that structure decides everything, which certainly isn't my view, or that it's all about individuals and it's all about limitations on great powers. The truth, I think, is that both of these matter. But we have to understand the structural part of this if we are going to try to be able to do something about the global situation through individual action. That's what I hope that people pick up from the book, at least some of the starting points for what that could be. Is it possible, even for someone like Donald Trump who came to the presidency the first time now more than 10 years ago unprepared in many ways for what he was doing to pick up enough through the practice of power that he could steer his own country and therefore also the world in a more stable direction for sure absolutely we have seen that in the past is he willing to do so well that's”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Simply in our lifetime. I mean, so individuals matter enormously with regard to this, as you will have seen from the book. I mean, it's always a question of individuals making decisions. The First World War could have been avoided by people making other decisions. Structure doesn't create individual decisions do. And what I say in the book is, of course, that not just with Donald Trump, although he symbolizes this better than most, very clearly. We are in a time now when all the leaders of major powers seem to me to be incredibly unsuited for many of the issues that they need to deal with in a very rapidly changing world. I mean, this is one of the parallels that I draw with the period before 1914. It's just how difficult many heads of state, many leaders of governments find it in order to navigate the kind of terrain that we are in at the moment. And therefore, it's...”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Going for him in saying that. I mean, this was staged in a way that presented China as the great power working towards stability, working towards resolving issues, which of course in reality is not always true, but that was how it was presented. While Trump was the bumbling foreigner who came into this really without having any solution, so much of a strategy at all. And those visuals, as you will know, matter. I mean, they really matter for their own countries, but they also matter for further afield.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think that's exactly what he meant. Exactly what he meant. I mean, I think that was to me one of the most fascinating outcomes of what we know from the public part of the summit. This is the reason a lot of people have been surprised about this, why Graham Allison's concept of the Sidjad Strap, Graham is a former colleague of mine, a professor at Harvard, why it's become so popular in China, because it actually doesn't look all that good for China when you think about Professor Allison assuming that most of these kinds of rivalries would end in war. The point is that it gives China a big face, that it recognizes China as being the rising great power and therefore the United States using that similarly as a great power in decline. And that was the reason why Xi Jinping was so eager to state this. I mean, you know, looking at the visuals, just how this was presented in terms of the summit, he might have something.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it's also the problem from the American perspective United States has de facto been the guarantor for Taiwan for a very, very long time, that there has been no willingness of trying to deal with China on this issue except through very broad phrases, as you saw during the last Xi Trump summit. So I don't think these parties would easily agree, but there is a way out of this, at least for the time being, which would be simply for the American president to declare that the United States would under no circumstance support Taiwan independence, while China then probably a bit further down the road would confirm that they would not use force against the island unless it declares independence. I mean, that's what some of us according to Shanghai Plus solution going back to what Henry Kissinger and Joe Enlai did back in 1972. Is that likely? Doesn't look like it at the moment. Is it possible for sure? I think it's entirely possible both on the US and the Chinese side.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we should be very worried about Taiwan's worry. I mean, to me, using the First World War parallel, Taiwan is a little bit like Bosnia Alsace, Lorraine, and Belgium rolled into one. It has the nationalist aspirations of people in the Balkans. It has the territorial implications of Alsace between France and Germany. And it has the strategic implication of Belgium. I'm the only place that Germany shouldn't have invaded if they wanted to keep Britain out of the war. All of these come together with regard to Taiwan. The Chinese pressure against Taiwan has been increasing, as you know, over a long period of time. And I think there are people in Beijing who are now saying, you know, this reunification, which they see it as, is something that should happen in our own lifetime, that things might not be better in the future than what they are now in terms of achieving these aims. And that reminds me quite a bit of some of the thinking that you found in Germany prior to 1990.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Communicate with each other. Three of the heads of state, where as you will know, closely related, Kaiser Wilhelm, the Russian Tsar, the British King George. The Kaiser was the oldest and favorite grandson of Queen Victoria. She literally died in his arms. But that didn't prevent war because there was no understanding of the changes in the positions among great powers that had taken place before 1914. And then finally, I think we need to strengthen international institutions. I mean, the UN was created for the kind of world that we are seeing now, for a multipolar world. It didn't really work very well during the Cold War or in the immediate aftermath, but it is in many ways if we choose to make use of it relatively well situated for dealing at least with some of the problems that we are facing today. But we are not making use of that opportunity.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, a lot of different things, unfortunately. I would say though, that in terms of the conflicts that I think are most likely to lead to a great power today, they are in the neighborhoods of these great powers themselves. So that's why I emphasize Korea, Taiwan, the relationship between China and India, which is getting increasingly tense. I think it's less likely that it would happen further afield. Not impossible, but less likely. So what is it that we should do? Well, we should end those conflicts that are ongoing. We should have a ceasefire with regard to the, in my view, meaningless war in Iran and the war in Ukraine. I think we should put much more emphasis than what we do on trying to understand the strategic aims and motivations of other powers. This is one of the things that really went wrong before 1914. There was a lot of talking, but very little understanding. I mean, these people spoke the same languages. They were able to...”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like what was the case of the 1945 in our own world? People get used to the idea that peace is something that would necessarily go on forever. There's almost no one alive today who have experienced Great Power War. We have all other kinds of wars which are terrible for the people who are affected by them. But great power war is something that happens at a different level. I mean, in the first two weeks of the Battle of the Summer of 1916, as many soldiers were killed as were killed in all wars between eighteen fifteen, the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the outbreak of the First World War. And that tells you something about the dimensions that we are dealing with here. And people just aren't prepared for thinking along those lines.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that is one of the problems. I mean, the idea before 1914 was that these could be kept in isolation, you know, a little bit like what people used to say, you know, Rory about the Middle East, what happens in the Middle East, stays in the Middle East. And that is less and less true today, it was less and less through, for instance, with regard to the Balkans in the period before 1914. So the point I'm making in the book is that we better try to bring these conflicts, the active part of the conflicts, the wars, to some kind of resolution because if events happen that we cannot foresee today, they could contribute to this overall conflagration that we encountered in 1914. Part of the problem was a complete lack of imagination, which I think is the same that we are facing today. There haven't been a significant world great power war for 100 years before 1914.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it could so easily be repeated. I mean, our own time, just like the beginning of the 20th century, one of the major problems that anyone would see is terrorism. Our acts by non-state actors that could, as we have seen already back in the early 2000s, change the whole international system. If something like that were to happen now, for instance, dealing with the situation in Taiwan or dealing with the situation in Korea, my fear is that you could end up in a situation where it would be really hard to hold back. It doesn't have to be terrorism. It could be other kinds of misjudgments that could take place. But that's what I'm afraid of. And that, I think, is unfortunately quite likely at some point to happen in our own time, just like it happened 100 years ago.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of all of this, right? And there are those you will have seen from the book these terrifying 36 hours after the German Kaiser Wilhelm II returns from his annual frolic in the Norwegian fjords. And he comes to Potsdam and he's furious because he says, you're calling me back for this, another Balkan crisis. I've already had 13 of these. And then there are that day and a half when he and everyone else realizes that this time it is really different, that it will be almost impossible to roll back because the wheels are already in motion. That's what I'm afraid of today.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is the problem in our way. So, below the surface that Gray was seen, there were a lot of tensions prior to 1914 as well. There had been gone on for some time between all of the great powers that ended up being involved in the war. But then there was this one act, a terrorist act in the summer of 1914 that got all of this going. And the problem was in a way that it came at the worst possible time. It came at a time when a lot of people in Britain, in France, in Germany, especially perhaps in Austria, were getting worried about their relative position. And you had that unexpected terrorist act. You had a weak ally, Austria, of a very powerful country, Germany, that took action in a way that unraveled the whole European system. And Germany wasn't willing or able to hold them back. That's the core.”
2026-06-07 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 192. Are We On The Brink Of World War III? (Odd Arne Westad) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source