YouSaid · the spoken record

Ozan Tarman

lines on the record: 38
first: 2025-09-25
most recent: 2025-09-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“They're done. Madame Lagarde very definedly says they're done for now. Madame Schnabel for now is winning the discussion. Even Lane is sounding a bit more like her, more hawkish. Let's see. Maybe. We don't have an inflation problem. Printing below 2%. If anything, my Mark Walt, chief European economist thinks it may go lower to 1.6%, 1.5. If that happens, let's see what their tone is. Come December. Come January. If this China continues to export to this inflation, maybe even though they don't say it now, they may have to end up cutting. So that's a big factor for the European story.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Mentioned they want to hedge a little bit, so they want to sell their dollars a little bit, and that's a big factor. So that, I think, China Tech will continue to be the champion asset class, gun to my head, maybe not going to 69680, but I am still betting with CNH and RMB strength over dollar strength. One of these laggers of the year will do better. To the world effect, you guys actually Bloomberg had a great piece this very morning, like Tracy said, on exporting this inflation. So two big countries in this world are American or China. Mr. Trump is doing what he's doing on the tariff side. This other big countries of the world don't necessarily fight with the other big giant in the world stage. So those cheap cars are coming into Europe and beyond. And that is a macro factor. Why? Because ECB, back to Blue Hat now.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“These tariffs, lightizers, they would be the toughest on China. There is no way all the CNH calls were both starting with seven and a half strikes at eight. All of that didn't materialize. Okay, we didn't go to 69680, but CNH is appreciating. Talking about the day we made April 16th on April 9th, the big fear was on that morning when we questioned the system, April 9 morning. China would devalue big time, big bang. They didn't do any of that. And currently my head of greater China trading 10, who named Drop, nicely called this China Tech and TNH rally, thinks that MFI's research, RMB strength has more legs to go. Because wherever they go around the world, Peru, ports, Brazil, Amazon forests following the China corporates, back to our discussion. These guys are full of dollars. Out of their ears. And now for discussions, for the points that you...”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Three parts to that. First of all, China as an asset class. We have it here as alongside golden emerging markets, champion of the year. In December, November, January earlier, everybody and their brother, a bit like this, not a bit, like the steepener trade of this August, early September. It was the top trade, going long Delar CNH.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are a bit taken aback by saying, are we becoming a bit emerging marketized? What do you mean by treasury and fed working even closer together? This is not 2008, 2009. But so far those who bet towards that, those who bet with Mr. Betent did better on their long and US views.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Does dear Mr. Bessan say as a former client friend, still a friend, bending the curve. He literally said, I'll bend the curve. We will take care of the curve. He said, bend, even not take care of. Maybe through, like they do being very watchful over the auctions, making sure auctions go very well, which they have been one tips auction aside, maybe through buying much more on the short end, vice versa, buying more on the long end to make sure that those rates stay under control. Operation twist, a la 1112, they may win over majorities told that fiscal dominance will win. My gut feel continued to say don't necessarily bet against whether you like it or not, Fed and Treasury working more closely together on this Ala US financial repression. Going back to your question, some clients had Americans I meet in New York, London, or Sao Paulo.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now both it hurts them a bit and also it becomes a bit of a dilemma, right? They may continue to criticize some of the things that are going on, but for the arguments that I laid out, risk parity, at least the equity part continues to do okay. And US 10 years still is not going to 6%. It frustrates them. This brings me to not in our big ones, but big thematics, a key point going forward much beyond the fourth quarter. What's going to win? The trust moments. my symbolic way of saying fiscal dominance or financial repression. Again, somebody who's experienced in these Turkeys, Hungaries, Argentinos of the world.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, let me get the pass from Kobe and do a bit of a shack. Look, they do. Especially if they have like me, born and bred emerging markets, but now trading the whole wide world. And if they are Americans, during my beautiful, beautiful world, they are affected. When they hear conversations like this, they understand when they traded Turkey, Hungary, Argentina, and say, okay, because of this politics, financial repression, I don't believe it. That's why I'm selling the currency. It was easier to do for somebody else's land and currency.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yes is the short answer. I think the details are even more complicated, a bit sad. I think you need you, we need in this game. That's it thing, IT, the next thing, which was B2B, B2C three decades ago, 3D, now of course AI, AI, AI past three years. And also US, I mean, again, as I said, the country that gave my education, right, in more open times for that, relies on growth, relies on animal spirits, relies on those asset classes to go higher and higher. And that's why the Tracy question from like 10 minutes ago is very key, whether we're at, you know, we're getting their stage of the bubble or we're at the bubble because if that bursts, economy can get affected as well. Also, Joe, I'm a big believer in the K economy, the whole terminology of that. So I said this again before on your shows. World may be more okay for whatever we define ourselves as 1%, 5% 0.1%. There's a much bigger...”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even when we, there's a lot of preparation going for these macro dinosaurs as well. Trust me, when he sends his questions and his keyboard points, he tells me to start with my binky.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“German elections, then they would take more and more steps lower on tariffs. But if they prove correct, if it's not reflected on the customer, if inflation continues to remain, okay, I know it's not 2%, but below 3%, maybe this status quo continues”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“more and more thumb clients start to say my binky the famous chief global economist start to say maybe this tariff effect wasn't as bad both on growth side and on inflation side these people immediately get a pushback early days early days let's wait so will companies continue to eat them and not pass that much to the traces of the world to the to the customer especially when we talk of beyond 10 tariffs which most countries face Next year your country faces a very key midterm elections so I think Trump and Best Sant know that they got elected because of inflation so the moment the stagflation camp starts to look like they are proving correct even look like a bit of a climb on inflation more slowdown on growth I think we may we may get more and more taco because they want to win those”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very fair comeback, I guess, especially fast money crowd hasn't necessarily given up on stagflation. Might take part of the reason why all these NVIDIA, gold, long-hand calls have been correct. I like to fade the inflation hoax and I like to fade the big recession bears who are much more quiet these days anyway. But yes, if President Trump continues to stick to them, even though on one hand they generate revenue and keep the long end under control, there may be a growth impact on the other side accompanied by supply-side immigration effects and the jury is out there on dear Mr. Walder, whether led by him, whether this is the famous word T word, whether this is transitory or not.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You talked like my joe. I like it globally, Tennessee factory, BYD. I mean, that's not the Ungapole at the moment. But sure. If that happens, my gut feels still says short-lived correction. But yes, what did I say? That's not to Unga Paul. That's not the New York Post at the moment. It would be a positive surprise, a little bit less scared of things. And yeah, I could see that hitting goal.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For example, maybe on tariffs, all of a sudden tariffs, tongue-in-cheek, Tracy, are a bit the good boy. Revenues, they raise a lot of revenues. Twitter talks about the TVs talk about it. Torsen stock talks about it. If Supreme Court at whatever time, and that's also very key when they make the decision, once again, I'm sure they may use S301, etc. But will be all of a sudden, that's the question mark now. What will the Trump administration do? What will be sent to Long Ends can get going again? And even though it's got nothing to do with necessarily Nimidian gold, the years path may change and things like that can take us off the...”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's why more and more countries are building up their reserves in gold, shying away from dollar more. My mother went Turkey is an example, again, publicly known in terms of reserves. Also, let's remember what is...”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why I think a little bit because so far let's die right into it if you wish, I think this cut is justified. In my mind, even if they cut 50 a week ago, it could have been justified. Talking about some dear client's friends, public, so I may say, recreader, publicly on TV and on his writings, said they may and they should cut 50 because I think if they saw the revisions in June and July, they probably would have cut in June and July. And going forward, okay, they cut 25. Not only they cut 25, Miran did his thing probably. That's the dot, but Waller, Bowman, stuck to 25. Even some of the previous Fed governors racing for the job, Bullard says they should have done 25. So people are thinking and hoping that there is still some Fed independence. Powell, even though he's the past man, has some control over the situation. That's why we're not getting any Fed independence.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And since the Holkish presser, we are more balanced. On to Fed independence. Again, just this morning of the press, Matt Raskin, my head of US race strategy previously from the Fed, very respectable analyst, wrote about this Fed independence fear not being in the price, not in the break-evens, not in the term premium.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That sooner or later we'll come to the Fed independence, the Trump fight of the equation would win more. Finally, power would cave in, cut would come in, and on the European side, even more popular because of the long end. Germans spending coming through in October, November. People believed in their steepness. First, US cut word to NFP's myth. Long end moved big, flatteners hurt. Gold aside, whenever you say on NVIDIA side, whenever you say somebody says a trade is untouchable, watch out. European stippers were supposed to be untouchable. Two days after that, flattening washout in US, Europe also got reduced.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That long hand sell off lasted four hours, and I'm not trying to be funny. Basically, since then, US 30 years Europe, even UK has been much more under control up until the Hawkish pressure, almost threatening below 4%, even more than short dollars, Tracy. Over the summer and into fall, what were the real money and hedge funds common favorite trade, steepeners, steepness, steepness? Europe, US, everybody and their brother has steepeners. First, for different reasons. On US, more due to the short end.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For the right reasons, Europe boom For right reasons because ramp up, the German spending will come at the end of the At the end of the year, etc. Some key investors were asking, well, one trust moment, we know how we handled Chancellor and Prime Minister Gos, different sets of policies. What happens if four goes at the same time? And we tried this on talking about dates. September 2, when you guys came back from, wherever you came back from on the final long vacation. UK guilt big move followed by France because the Prime Minister was about to go in six days join Tracy how long did it last four hours”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fiscal dominance. So we talk, right? I love brainstorming with you guys. Do you remember what I said in August as well? Summer, everybody was everybody, like some key investors, especially fast money, were gunning for from my dear island, four key trust moments in four countries at the same time. What does that mean? I mean, trust moments, we said you know what I'm talking about, Long Yan's getting out of control for people's, for Marcus' big fiscal.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or not, and the famous Fed Independence, those are my second and third key topics. By the way, where are tariffs all the way down to four”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Two different roles talking about plugins, I also love the New York Times piece. I think you guys deserve all the French clients, they listen, they get very excited when I'm on. Now, Tracy definitely hit the right point. Dedollarization is one key big team going into the end of the year, fiscal dominance.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Completely correct. And honestly, I was a little bit skeptic. I wasn't sure if you told me Ozan this year, this big surgeon back in NVIDIA, Microsoft won't happen, then I would feel even more comfortable with the short-term position. But Magnificent 7 roared. It may even pass Mega. Despite that, the little is also remaining soft. So I was skeptical or not, what you explained is happening. But I think for the next legs, ours included a lot of biansel site are calling for 120, 122 leg levels. You need now the European side of the story or whoever you want to talk about. Japan, China, the lagger side of the story. FX is too leged. We talked about why dollars side of short dollar worked. Yeah. We need now a bit more help from our European story.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But from Asia to Nordics, big funds are reducing their dollar exposure a little bit, 7 to 65, 60 to 55. That makes a difference, that made a difference”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I was a little bit skeptical on that. By the way, flows are back. So a big difference to April 16th. We can talk about that as well. Retail late rally, look where we are, all-time highs. My research reports and claims again George Servalos that in the last recent 30-45 days or so, those flows almost 80% of them are hedged. So people are buying their Nimidia hedged. So believe it or not, 80% is a big number, say it's 70%, say 60, that definitely helps the soft dollar side of things. What continues to help is, of course, institutions decreasing their exposure to US like hindsight I said rightly on that April 16 nothing to end the US private side exceptionalism NVIDIA's Microsoft so far are fighting back the threats of deep seek even though champion of the year is China Tech in terms of performance”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very fair. I'm Team Odlos, so I also remember last time we met is April 16th in London. So just a week before the big fear, Eurodollar was right around 110, 111. We were beginning to sense that this could be a historic year in terms of this delorization hedge fund ratios changing, but we swift the mood beyond 115 as well. Now looking at the picture, two things are very important. First of all, the flows. Back to our friend Nvidia, back to our friend Magnificent 7. Because one pushback from some of my especially fast money friends who all either smell, want, or wish another squeeze after such a soft dollar move is what will the flows do? World continues to buy Nimidas and Microsoft's. Do they buy it hedged?”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Talked about it in these shows. An equity perspective can be very different to a race perspective, right? As we speak, again, we are in one of these doldrums on if you define macro just as rates and FX, it's almost like a magnet 412. Okay, we try on US 10 year, we tried below 4%, 412, 413, 414. As Tracy said, we are recording this on September 23 at 9 a.m. In three hours, Chair Paul will speak. Let's see if he changes on or sticks to his so-called Hawkish presser. Some people hope that may again ignite a little bit of other stronger race higher tone. Otherwise, volatility in effects and rates are struggling. Meanwhile, equities continue to better and better. And back to your question, different sets of clients coming to my roundtables, coming to my realm. Learn from each other on why different assets classes act differently.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My job is to talk to my bank's top institution clients. Hedge funds real money, but also because of experience, talent, relationships going deep, this also includes now sovereign wealth funds, key private banking institutions. And as you know, I'm a person who tries to bring things together. So in these roundtables, small or big, it's not just hedge funds, it's not just real money, it's not just soimwell funds. All asset classes, credit rates, FX, emerging markets, my proud Terawa. Equity, of course. So they learn from each other as well”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is not the top stock in SP year to date. Talking about waiting for Godot, finally, small caps rose up since the famous now Jackson Hall, another famous Jackson Hall, OE speech. So it's not just one guy is very important, November 19, NVIDIA earnings are very important, but it's not just one stock.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you cannot question much the revenue the cashen, Nividia, OpenAI is bringing to the table. You cannot question much. Let's go beyond NVIDIA a bit into Magnificent 7. Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet. They have customers. All of us are their customers. They make money. And in a way, talking about circle, more positive way of more glass, half full way of looking at it. Nimidia is the big champ. Okay, but take Nimidia's side. All of a sudden, Oracle became a story for a reason. For an Oracle, we go to alphabet because for this time around, Judge decided favorably on Chrome. The story continues, moves from one asset to another. Also, NVIDIA is doing great. We'll talk about how Nasdaq the Hercules is catching up with my bluehead Mega, but it's really spreading.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Excellent question. Almost like two months ago I was hearing more, I'm skeptical, but fat cuts are also coming. You can't fight this. Now, especially from the pros who've been around, 90s and beyond, I do hear, look, this does feel a bit like end of 90s, beginning of 2000s. By the way, the year you pick is very important there. But we may still run. That's one thing that more seasoned equity beyond macro pros are saying. It was a bit the beginning of my career, but I was around in late 90s, early 2000s. Then the denominator almost didn't exist in this valuation discussions. There was hardly any cash around. Everybody... is excellent in b2b even better in b2c and of course hindsight is the world stop hedge fund but”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Agreed, and also others are joining him. Again, I'm hearing from my dear France clients this very morning, Bain claims on Lake's revenues quickly catch up with all this AI capex spent. We may be in big trouble, all of this will burst by 2030 and we'll go into recession before that now. We can say a lot can happen before 2030, but warning signs are there. Last night's big headlines, the reason why again NASDAQ closed on the highs. NVDA investing into open AI, that also becomes almost circular. I mean, this is not Tangijigi. Oracle invests in OpenAI. OpenAI invests in NVIDIA, back and forth, back and forth. Is it a closed circle? I hear all the skepticism, also mainly coming from those who haven't caught this big rally since...”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Gold. FX is about stories against dollar. I'm sure we'll go into this as well. Some of the stories are now having a less easy time than people like to go into gold. And we're maybe going into a rate cut period, cycle or not, whether you're in Miran or Hamak, that differs. Gold works in that as well. So for the moment, I always feel when it's the top trade on TVs, on my roundtables, I put the Orange on, but at the moment it works for a reason. Now, Nvidia. Yeah, I mean, if he had this show a year ago as well, you could have said Oz As of this morning, one of my partners in success is Sarevelos. His piece is already viral. He's claiming tongue-in-cheek that NVIDIA is almost keeping US away from a recession. All that chip story, all that Capex bending, if it wasn't for that, maybe we could either question or be in a recession.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Actually, let me start with goal because you did put such an intro on it. One of the very famous memes on the internet caricature done maybe two, three years ago. This gentleman or lady running a big macro hedge fund looks for a time. I run very complicated products, but at the end I buy gold. And these days that resonates even more. Mention even more and more in these round tables, in TV studios like this. Normally that Jinx thinks. But it doesn't because at the moment it works in RISC-CON and RISCO. Last time you were around, again, you called me at a very relevant time questioning US exceptionalism. I'm sure we'll go into that. What's going on with US institutions? Those question marks, all those question marks against the dollars.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And by the way, I was going to bring my United Amam jersey. Dear Joe really looks like him and some Baklava for Tracy, but couldn't find in the airport next time.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very good to be in New York. I love to be on this show. I mean, honored to be invited again. Unga Merners, this is the highlight.”
2025-09-25 · Odd Lots · Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source