YouSaid · the spoken record

Patrick Perret-Green

lines on the record: 125
first: 2024-06-06
most recent: 2024-06-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“It looks completely out of line when you look at sort of delinquency rates, for example. So you can go by over the decades of delinquency rates and credit spreads go with it. Delinquency rates gone up here, credit spreads are down, credit spreads are down here. It's like, you know, real contradictions. But I in turn, from a valuation perspective, again, it's any good value versus credit. Well, what credit? And actually, is that credit giving you an accurate implication? So, I mean, so ultimately, I mean, I'm not an equity man. I've always been rates, FX, primarily, and EM. And the questions about funding. So, you know, Japanese yen looks, it's very cheap. We all know it's cheap. Just the sheer number of tourists going there comes with its cheap.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, so that index is now down to only 1.3 trillion. It's like smallest it's been in years. So when I'm looking at market credit spreads in high yield, actually they no longer have the same validity because it's actually a much smaller percentage of the market and they're probably going to be the better credits as well or when people go bust and they default, they automatically fall out of the industry and then private credit comes in it's picking up. So there's certain measures that become like, well, yeah, I look at that and I don't want to own high yield, but actually. I don't but it's that the idea is that as an historic measure”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not a good guide anymore. So, for example, and one of the reasons, which also leads to me scared about underlying elements of the shadow financial system, is that I was looking at stories on Bloomberg today, and private credit has gone for sort of $800 billion in 2019 to like 1.7 trillion now. And the outstanding, whereas Bloomberg does the Bloomberg Barclays have these big indices of bonds. So it's like the US dollar high yield.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, no, I mean, I talk about just from an investment perspective. I mean, I suppose if I was, you know, I'd rather have that element. But again, it's been prepped for it. It's having that idea that... What do we do if we hear in hay rocks? Well, yeah, you buy bones. But then you keep buying them. It's having that game plan. It's working out what you're going to do next and what are the implications. People would say, well, we look at credit spreads at the moment. When high yield credit, you know, that used to be a good guide.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again it's pow's words that sort of an unexpected week near the labour market and he's already told us what will make the Fed change policy. So when we're at a point now from a rates perspective, certainly in the front end pricing, but a rate's perspective, you know, personally. Quite happy to earn a two-year note of 5%.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I suppose it asked this goes to Constance. My gut feel is that we're getting back to a point where the data is actually. Settling down so we can start to go back to thinking of it more in a broader historical context that we've been sort of looking at in the past 35, 40 years plus when we run those big long data series and that Lorraine when I'm looking at data now I actually deliberately exclude 2020 through to 2023. And I look back from maybe 1980 to 19 to the end of 1919, 2019 rather, 1919, to look at those patterns. And if we're going back to those relationships, where are we going to be? And they all say, well, actually, we should probably be having a negative payroll at some point. And then what happens? And then that brings me back then to...”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know, I think the Jelts data is a joke. I mean, perhaps, when you actually look at, if you look at big energy companies, you take out those tiny businesses. So companies with more than 10 employees, job offerings are back to where they were in 2018. There's an illusory and outfits more again with the stuff that we get from the employment companies like Indeed or other surveys that suggest that the employment market is not as strong. And so my question is. There's federal The shock number will be for me is going to be the negative payroll number. That could come in next three to six months. So, you know, Danielle's talked about Danielle earlier on. She's talked a lot about employment data and the sign rule versus the McElvie rule and all these measures. So if the data, let's just, I mean, my gut feels.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The response rate has dropped to about 32%. So you're basically saying 7,500 institutions are replying to this survey. And we got some really weird stuff that small businesses, so this is businesses less than ten employees, now account for a record proportion of job earnings. Well, how does that work out when we look at things like the National Federation of Independent Business Surveys that come out with their monthly data and they go hiring plans are down to the lowest level since about 2016? It's like, or you get paychecks which do the small business wages and job index, which is also the weakest level. Pretty much it's only a limited history since about 2016, 17. So actually it's its softest level.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And has chopped up, you know, and I think, for example, the Office of National Statistics, I think, is one of the best statistical bodies globally, far, much better than the US. It's resources are much better. We have a digitalized tax system that, you know, whereas everything in the US is positively antiluvian when it comes to unemployment and state data and local governments and gathering of data. I mean, I was going to talk about the BLS. Oh, talk about the BLS. So everyone goes about job offerings. Dig down into that, okay, they only survey 21,500 institutions.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very nice. Well, I think this is come back to the pandemic, and I was talking about the pandemic experience. And I think, you know. It was such purple that it basically meant economists. Sit there and they've got all their models, their seasonal adjustments. Oh, seasonal adjustments just go out the window in the Panoe. They're irrelevant because there was no season up now. Everything. What it does feel now is we are getting back as a whole. You know, when we talk about a very, you know, you go to the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine. And really, that's 2020 up until, you know, for example, in the energy disruption, we only really started seeing that energy disruption start to fall out in the latter part of last year in the UK in terms of our energy guts. So effectively, we're talking about the best part of four years has been completely chaotic.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Talking about PM Has there been an economic indicator that has lost people more money than looking at PPIs? Because PPIs were declining from 60 to 55 as early as late 2021, I think. And that had all the macro boys going out and saying, well, and they were the modelers, fortunately not you. You were on the short base trades. And I know that just to be clear. But they were saying, oh, the last time, anytime the PMI goes from 60 to 55 or anytime it declines, basically, bonds do well. That's what my back test says. And that trade has just been running off a cliff because the economy was so hot in nominal growth in 2021 that to slow from 12% to 6% is not a recession. And it's not a time to buy bonds, especially when we start at one point.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You can look around, you can just look back if you mind just a simple data. I'm not, you know, I'm crap at modelling and stuff like that. I'll leave that to the math ski. But you just look back and over time or isn't employment is at 45 or 47, that's normally consistent with non-farm payrolls coming at zero to minus 50 a month.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't know best of any of the answers, but it's like what if you know so Going back to the US, you know, what are you going to do if we see lots of net, there's lots of data series that suggest that be it ism both employment or the other regional Fed employment levels, we're all saying that historically at these historic measurements, we'd be seeing negative payroll numbers.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In 2011, and you go, like, okay, what would you do if first commercial successful commercial test, the fusion reactor? What does that do to oil? What does that do for everything? Good old questions like that. Think about things. So one would be what happens if we suddenly say, well, actually the GPIF in Japan has decided it's going to do an allocation switch. Going to reway from its portfolio or the bank of Japan, for example, is sitting on vas profits from its ETF holdings. Does it start to actually sell off those ETF because there is so much in your money? And actually, could that money go, does it get replaced to the government? Does it help reduce the national debt? Or there's multiple little issues, but then you think, well, if Bank of Japan becomes a seller of equities, what does that do for equity prices as a whole?”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But my point being is, if you're a liability manager, then you end actually going out and saying, well, actually given we've had our stocks, we've had this huge value of stocks. And therefore what we should do is lock into the bolts. So do we get to a point? So one of the things we're trying to do is it's not now, but it's basically like wall gaming. Try and think of what happens if something happens. I used to go to my graduates. The new analyst coming in, like Muggins was the one because my boss didn't be bothered by him. So I'll deal with the train, the newbies coming onto the trading floor, trying to teach some of that stuff. What would you do if you heard that, you know, when we talk about massive earthquake and cars? When I saw one of those, I think it's them in'96. We obviously had the earthquake in Japan, had the tsunami.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fast and I can't remember taking it earlier on this morning, but you also got within Japan itself, you've got the GPIF, which has had this huge pension scheme that over the past decade has diverted money to equities and overseas assets. But given the rise in Japanese yields now, so we now got 30 yields at like two and a quarter, 40 year yields at 260. At some point, or the implied, when you look at these implied yields, and I know it's a bit of a theoretical context for a lot of people, but like a 15 year, 15-year implied rate, it's now over 3%.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Particularly went into straight cycles or at their peak. So you often get things, it seems noisy, but actually you're just going, you know, this is a bit of a Z. 10-year notes were at 470, not that long. We went down to 430. We're now back at four and a half, or a bit more, but 455. But overall, certainly for the investor layer, it's basically a big picture, guys. So if I talk to a big asset manager and he's going, well, I'm getting, I can buy these long-term bonds. And right away, people look at them as on the forward implied yield basis. So, you know, 10 year, 10-year implied yields. And we're still talking about big liabilities, another big one for Japan. Yes, they can type managed policy, but there's another risk out there. And it's interesting if you look back, Nikkei actually peaked in March. And it's off like 2,000 points from the tie or more, two and a half.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That TV works fine. But what I'm saying is it's. It's a challenging environment, and I think it is a challenging environment. And one of the things we try and do is we talk about the sort of what ifs. I mean, just try and prepare for things. So a lot of the time it can be very boring. It's like all quiet on the Western front. You're sitting around and you're going like.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But at the same time, the marginal propensity of consumer old people, apart from purchasing medicines and healthcare, drops. I mean, you get to your grandparents' house and that's the last sofa they're ever going to have No, they'll make things last. It's that sort of mentality. So”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because makes so many other people angry. I mean, that's ads, it is underlying it, you know, you could argue it's an underlying inflation, it's not what we've had in the previous decade. So wars are inherently inflationary. So maybe that keeps it up. It's the whole demographic debate. So you've got the good heart line of things, the aging populations allied to boost inflation. And then we have the reality for Japan. where an aging population Done exactly the opposite. And you could argue maybe that's the same in China as well. So yes, you need more care home givers and health workers.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So to borrow money create the guilt market. So, yeah, I mean, ultimately, but I suppose from the other side, we didn't have countries were largely, you know, UK may have been a big training, but countries were largely self-contained then. We didn't import strawberries in December. But, you know, yes, ate that when they were available seasonally. The world's a mess. We know that. And I think a lot more can we do that way, but I'm not going to get into a geopolitical argument.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Huge, huge debt increase. And actually, there's between wars and central banks That central banks create wars, but that wars create central banks because there's a huge amount of debt and then they have to be.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it could if it thinks, you know, there's always that nationalistic element. But given we all talk about, oh, China is doing much more trade with Russia, but I think it's exports to Russia last year or something like $240 billion. Whereas we've got Chinese exports in a single month, and they're the order of, what, $500 billion? I mean, China needs the rest of the world as well. Without the rest of the world, and that external demand, Chinese economy gets even worse. So, I mean, that's the plus side from a political perspective.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“20 odd months in a row. So just looking at the back calculated. So house prices are down from, I think, beginning of 2022 by about 12% overall. So that's another element that's there that reinforces caution given that property is the biggest store of household wealth. So if your portfolio shrinking, you've got to save more money. So are you going to reinvigorate the Chinese consumer? And I think that's, I just don't see it happening for a considerable period of time. Does that mean that geopolitics is a risk? Jonathan can't afford to go to war.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then, if China starts to reflight, well, then that actually will add to global face, but it takes a lot of time. Back in... 2012 and 2016, we saw China producer prices were down year on year for 54 months in a row. And the difference is now what we're seeing in China is that we're also seeing house prices falling. For really since for”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and that's the one that obviously they trade in very, very, it's a very tight gap, although, but it's, you know, the real transactions, I suppose underlying are done in CMY, but overall, if China does, if the currency goes, we go back to where we started with like the emission risk. If China actually goes back and lets the currency go, that's another disinflationary, it adds to inflationary force.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like 2008, really. And then they started to move. And we had CNH was introduced in 2010. That's when I went, you know, I went away to work on the opening of CNH.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think we see a dramatic devaluation, but after we've seen Dollar C back at 735 previous, not that long ago, but just drifting up. But then the question is, what does he do to some of the other currencies? So when we look at China against the Euro, which obviously is one of its biggest euro zone is its biggest export competitor, really, or what are the implications of that for the Aussie dollar and the Kiwi dollar? They seem to be pretty negative.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, you know, you can think about Michael Pettis is the man who's always argued for years about the need to rebalance the economy. I can think like past 15 years, China's been talking about rebalancing the economy. And it never has. One of the things to do, and this is exactly what they did in 2015, let's not forget. I mean, they got to a point where they felt, okay, well, also it's the FX flow. So we can talk about this great surplus, but then the money seems to be licking out, and Chinese banks are holding money. They're not make exports.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And sorry, Patrick, I realized you kind of answered my own question. The surplus is had by the Chinese citizenry, the private sector, who have an enormous amount, the savings rate in China is incredibly high. And that is allowing the rest of the world to run a trade deficit with China and the Chinese government to run a trade deficit with them. So the Chinese consumer is private sector is running a huge surplus. The only issue is they're not spending the money and that has its own economic”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Automotive industry, the capacity in China for automotive production is enormous. The exports have searched, the biggest auto exporters in the world. So that's just invading everybody else's territory as well.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The spend is down. So they're budget tourists. So there's a huge amount of caution amongst Chinese. But the surplus is big, partly because Chinese import demand is so soft. But also they are producing, you know, you just have to look at steel exports and steel exports have search. So China's now exporting something like 9 million tons a month. It's just dumping it on the world. What do we do? How do we make life more painful for other people? Actually, we can let the currency go a little bit. And they can turn around quite justify and you say, hey, you don't mind about the end, do you? We're being free markets. If it can boost domestic inflation and maybe encourage people to spend a bit more and boost Chinese exports and make, well, in turn, it will make life much harder for Frits international competitors. And we just have to look at what's happening.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Budget deficit is purely from domestic fiscal expenditures and revenues, so incomes are growing, employment's weak, incomes, they're still spending huge amounts on defence. And diverting to deal with local governments, et cetera. They still provide most of the local governments struggling. Local governments traditionally relied on land sales as a significant portion of revenue in a company, rat land sales have fallen off a cliff. So a lot of domestic and also, and I'll get into same revenues, we talk about industrial, but manufacturing revenue, okay? industrial profits are up slightly but the service sector is as a whole in china is still struggling um greatly so we we could see oh they're traveling more internally”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“China, why is there a government budget deficit, i.e. the government China's government is spending more money than it taxes if China runs a huge trade surplus with the rest of the world? I thought they had to balance.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Fin and Twit community, there's a remarkable generosity of spirit as a whole. People are having to share ideas. And so I have, I'm more than happy to name check people and say because it's like, they know much, there's plenty of people who own not smaller than me. I'm quite good at putting lots of different things together. But, you know, there are some people agreeing, know their stuff about specific experts in specific areas. So I'm a complete vulture when I go around looking at stuff. Oh, that's interesting. It adds to the narrative. And I think it's, you know, trying to shape a narrative. Where are we? Where are we going to be? I struggle with reflation when we've got monetary aggregates coming down and consumers getting stretched and labor markets overall loosening. And people go about job owns, but I look at the job openings and I'll send you, I'll put that chart on. When we look at the job openings, that's another one. It's a classic why we should question VLS.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The monetary price for the harass train. So actually if we've got excess capacity, the exchange rate becomes the only other real form of the limited non-fiscal side because the overall government deficit is so large. When we talk about everyone here, the federal deficit is not that big. But then you've got all the other public sector deficits. So monetary policy, the exchange rate is another form. We can argue about valuations and stuff like that. It's very clear. And you can see people like Brad Setz or the CFR writes a lot about China, put some very good stuff out on Twitter. That's why I saw the little thing I just want to mention. We're all trying to do our thing. We're all trying to work out what to do next, advise our clients. But, you know, everyone talks about Twitter being such a toxic place. But I'd actually say within the...”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You've got a two year Chinese government bond that's actually outside of the COVID had a draft down during the lockdown in China in 2020, but a two-year yield below 180 today, you have to really go back to GFC times to have the two year rate lower. Ten year bond yields are effectively at the lows like two hundred thirty. That's a historic low. The thirty year bond in China is at two and a half. And”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is effectively pegging itself to the dollar, so if the dollar comes off, China will just go with the dollar and we're quite happy. But we've seen this just over the past few weeks. So we've seen the dollar starts fall. So the euro stronger, the pound is stronger. Go about yen. But despite that, dollar CNH dollar CNY has actually weakened. And the Chinese mean allow it to weaken just gradually. And that's another issue. So basically monetary policy in China is sort of rates are down to levels where they're really going to struggle to push much lower.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Our laborer in the UK, Labour is so far away in the polls, so we tend to do this whenever the Tories. Always say, it's time for a change element. So it would be remarkable if Labor don't win an overall majority. But at the same time, they're so fiscally constrained and they're basically saying, well, we're not going to raise taxes and we're not going to do this. We're not going to do that. Is there any going to be that much change? There'll be some tinkering around the edges. But overall, I look back and I think, well, the last cap of Labour government under Tony Blair was more conservative than the previous conservative government in terms of its economic policies. I mean, I just think it's like rates should come down a bit. I'm not too worried about global inflation. I do remain concerned about China. And it's also interesting over the past few weeks. I've had a basic line from the FX perspective that China”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, but what I'm saying is they've done that, but what's happening is you actually get a reduction in hours. And that's the other side of things, so income growth. So we talk about average hourity earnings and how they're coming down. But when you look at aggregate earnings, so what's happened to the work week and overtime? Actually, that's actually negating a lot of the increase in pay. So the sort of the average weekly earning average weekly pay packet isn't rising as much as the average hourly earnings because you're doing less hours. So there's all these little things around the edges. So I'm sort of fairly relaxed about things. Obviously we've got Got an election coming up in the States. We've got an election. In the UK, in six weeks time.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we've had some noise with the unemployment data in the UK overall, but it does feel what we're seeing, and it's not just the UK. I mean, a lot of stuff you took about what's happening in California, this minimum wage for fast food workers of $20 a week. What's happening is, well, they may be getting their, sorry, $20 an hour. They may be getting their $20 an hour.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the UK were in severe financial difficulties. For a small, relatively small country, that's a lot of businesses that are struggling.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, pre COVID environment that we grind along, governments are even more fiscally restrictive because of the rise in debt from Whole experience of the pandemic. Consumers as a whole, well, in Europe and the UK, consumer saving remains high. And I don't think we're really going to tap our savings. So it's sort of that adds to sort of I'm more relaxed about inflation. I think that central bankers can ease, I'm not talking about massive easing, but taking rates 100 basis points lower in a relatively short space of time. I don't think would be particularly inflationary. I think it would actually, for example, in the UK we see lots of signs of business stress with there are an accountancy firm called Beg Peace Trader, but they're like UK liquidation specialists and they come out with a quarterly report. And the last one said that the 555,000 businesses”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Unemployment is surged and inflation is running at 10%. Yeah, I know. I mean, I think Europe and the UK are in a different space. If it feels like we're adjusting, so we talk about relative performance. So if anything on an economic surprise basis, people going, oh, European I's are going back towards 50, but they've been, let's not forget the nature of PMIs, but they're an inherently binary. It's our things getting worse or are they getting better or are they unchanged? So you can be down at 40, you can be in a hole, are things getting any better? No, they're saying. So therefore you go down to 50. So let's, we have to keep a context. And I think there's far too much noise and excitement about data as a whole. More broadly, I think we're seeing sort of, my sort of broader view is we're probably going back to a bit more of the...”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And again, consumer confidence was incredibly low in 2022 when people were spending money by 10 to 12%. I don't trust these emotional surveys. Not that I put too much stock in the data, but the data is better than the...”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“nominal dollars five for eight there we go so yes personal consumptions is being remarkably strong although when we look at if we look it's but that's where were we in 29th of december of 2019 uh we were at 4.9 let's see how that goes going forward because retail sales i tell you a soft and up so we'll we'll see how that comes out but again that's my that's my point if as consumer confidence someone goes oh consumer confidence rose yesterday hang on look at the chart it's it's a noisy series but it's still down and it's lows so a little bat it's noise”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That savings ratios normalize. And if the economy does start to slow down, actually what happens is the savings ratio go rises and consumption gets a further knock. There's another. Concept about zero, and we're seeing it. Are we seeing? I think it's playing a role in China at the moment that as interest rates go lower, people save more. So that's another risk down the line that should, you know, when we talk about things, savings ratios normalizes. And it's very much a US phenomenon. It's not a UK phenomenon. Savings have actually remained quite high in the US.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“After COVID, we all felt, oh, I deserve it. I'm worth it. We're all like L'Oreal adverts. And now it's like, it's a fading memory. And we are normalizing. We're going back. And then there's other factors as well. If the downturns, we're talking about unemployment. We're also talking about background. Okay, you can argue that because of equities and stuff like that, savings ratios, what is the savings ratio? Is it the amount of money that people are saving in their savings account every month? But if they feel like the net worth has gone up and the pension funds gone up, before when K's got up in value, they can argue that my savings are adequate. But overall, it is another risk consumption.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market was pricing five or you know, got to that point. Now it's pricing in virtue only a bit more than one. I think we've done a 31 basis points price for this for the rest of this year, which again just on a purely sort of cynical reversal basis. And then when we look at things like money growth, well, money growth, yes, M2 has ticked up margin a year on year, but it's only up like 0.6% and it's basically gone sideways last year. Real M2 obviously is still contracting. That's a rare event. Say that the outlook for inflation is reasonably constructive. And I think it's a normalization. So I sort of somehow the other last week and we're just saying sort of the revenge spend is over.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think that's reasonable. But now we've got a market that's given, I was thinking myself, so is the squid a good economic reverse indicator. So at the start of the year, it's all in the press. So it was all like Goldman's producer, you know, 15th of January. I checked it today. Goldman's predicting there were going to be five break cuts this year. Four months on, they're now saying we're only having two.”
2024-06-06 · Forward Guidance · Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT