YouSaid · the spoken record

Paul Desmond

lines on the record: 141
first: 2015-10-25
most recent: 2015-10-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Well, the SP 500 for all practical purposes made a high July. It was a little bit below the previous eye by the Nichols and Dimes. Right.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Well, particularly studying major marketops. I've probably put 20 years into it. And so we've attacked the major problem that all investors are facing, and we've conquered that issue. And so everything else is small problems now.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the big thing is that the biggest problem that all investors have had, the very biggest problem has always been bear markets. And what we wanted to do is demonstrate that uncertainty, that lack of knowledge about bear markets has been overcome. And we are in a position to sidestep virtually the entire bear market. So who would consistently”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Our knowledge of market trends and how to deal with the stock market is expanding at a tremendous rate. And we are now in a position. where I strongly believe That it is entirely possible to Likely that using the proper tools bear markets are a thing of the past, that they exist, but our ability to sidestep those bear markets is a very valid concept. And in fact, we have recently set up a new money management operation to prove it. We're taking a position saying we're going to put your money where your mouth is”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what we've done in order to learn that we're breaking down the market from a single entity approach to almost a cellular approach where we can see each individual stock. And with that individual stock, we can see upside volume, downside volume, points gain, points loss, advances and declines for each individual stock. And in addition to that, we see momentum and we see a whole bunch of other side issues. And so we're learning new things about the stock market that we've never seen before. And that is we're doing that right now. This study of 1929 that we completed in 2014 is precisely that, that people thought that the stock market in 1929 was a single entity and that couldn't have been further from the truth.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's these individual organs. Well, then the next step was to say it isn't really the organs, it's the cells that make up the organs. And so now we're at the point where we're saying if you tried to go back to a case of saying that the body is a single entity, they'd laugh you out of the room. Right. It's a case the same. Getting down to the cellular Part of the body opened up all kinds of things, allowed us to see all kinds of things that we never could have seen before. The stock market is exactly the same thing. In the early days everyone considered the market to be a single entity that all stocks moved together, that all stocks made high at the same time, they made it low at the same time, so on and so forth. Big cap, mid cap, and small cap all moved in unison with each other. And now we know all of that's wrong”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know what's happening If you look at the medical profession. And you go back a couple hundred years, you say in the late seventeen hundreds, early eighteen hundreds. The place that medicine was at was that the body was a single entity. and if it got sick, if it was showing signs of sickness, you'd bleed it. You cut a vein open and let some blood out and get the bad blood out of the body. That was what you do for cancer, what you do for a headache, for a cold, for a broken foot. You bleed. And then the medical profession started saying, well, you know, it's not that simple. There's a thing called echidney, or there's a thing called a heart, or there's a thing called a. Pancreas. Pancreas, yeah, whatever else.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And when you'd go back and... And try to figure out exactly what he was talking about. What you realized was that these early technicians were working in an area where the amount of information available to them was very, very small.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, he did do quite well. He was an interesting character, and I think he drew a lot of people to him because he was a fabulous character as well as a good analyst. But one of the areas that Edsen Gould did a lot of work in talking about the nature of market bottoms. But it was all Vague. In other words, he'd say there's dramatic panic. And volume tends to expand. And you'd say, well, tends to expand. What does that mean? What does tend to expand mean?”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think everybody goes through a little bit of that in. One of our employees. Introduce me to somebody last week as this is my boss. And I took them aside afterwards and I said, you know, I just don't like that term. I don't like to be called that it has a negative implication.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No one no one would dare to call him by his first name, Rosie. It was always mister Johnson. And so Mr. Laurie felt very much, he was in that same era. And you just didn't use first names until you were engaged.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He always went by initials. There was a tendency in those days to be more formal. And, for example, the founder of Fidelity Funds, Mr. Johnson.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, we had to bag all that stuff up and take it to the post office and get it processed. We used to take it to the Miami airport just to try and speed up the process and get it to him that much quicker as soon as we could.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so everything that we did was mailed out on Fridays. And we did an analysis of the general market as a separate product, and then we had an analysis of about, oh, maybe four or five hundred individual stocks that we put out. And we had a printing press and used a backup of a MIMER graph. So that's how rough things were in those days”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, everything pretty much when I got there, everything that we did was on a weekly basis. Because there was no internet, no computers, no technology like today. Telephones were all long distance calls and nobody made long distance calls if they could avoid it.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I said to him, you know, all the time that I was in college, I was interested, my interest was not in banking and economics. My interest was how do you make money in the stock market? And I never had a course in that. I didn't teach that. And I kept thinking there must be some place in the world you can go and take a course in how to make money in the stock market. And I told him, I said, you know, I'm sitting here talking to you. This is the place to come to get a PhD in how to make money in the stock market. And I want to be around here. I'm willing to work for nothing. I just, and he said, Well, we can work that out. And we almost did.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, finally his wife called him on the phone and said, Where in the world are you? I was afraid that, you know, he got bit by a snake or something. And she said, you know, I can't imagine what was taking you so long. And he said, oh, we're having a good time here. And so I think we went on for maybe another half an hour or so. And then finally, I think she called again and said, dinner's ready, you know, get up here.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Always aimed our work. We don't really make any attempt to go after the general public. Our stuff is a little too esoteric for most investors.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I just told him he was impressed that there was a young man sitting there that had an interest in the same things that he had an interest in.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, he started the company in nineteen thirty eight, and And he created a five-year history going back to 1933. So our history had always been from 1933 to the present time. And it wasn't until 2014 we finished a study that we started it in the mid-70s that covered the period from 1925 to 1932. So now our history goes from 1925 to the present time, 88 years.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was simply a case of saying, you know, I was at the public library, I saw the lowry material, I was really enthused and attracted to it. I went through a lot of it and found it. That I was drawn to it, that it had a natural draw to it. It was based on the law of supply and demand. I'd never seen anything else that was really focused on supply and demand.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I said, is there anybody around here from the Lowry organization? And he said, yeah, I think we could find somebody. And he got up all of his knees and he. Took me into the office and I thought he was just leading me somewhere where there'd be somebody to talk to. And all of a sudden we were in an office. And”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh dramatically sorry, yes. Yeah. And he'd converted it into his office. And so it fits very nicely for this relatively small operation that he was running at that point”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it was a house. I think it were Area for four or five cars. And then a two-story building attached to that that was, I think originally it was Mage Quarters”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The people who put this out, you guys got to take some risks in life, you know, so I just thought, you know, what are they going to do to me?”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Because I thought, you know, I don't belong in this, I don't belong in this area. This was the prime pieces of real estate in all of South Florida. And”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A little sports car. didn't belong in that area of the city. And I actually drove in the gate, and there was a line of royal palms going down the driveway to Leading to the house, and my first thought was I'm going to get arrested here.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, by recognizing the changes that were going on in the economy and saying now's a good time to invest in oil, now's not a good time to invest in oil, but it is a good time to invest in real estate. It's not good to invest in real estate in one area of the country, but it is good to do it in another area.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In real estate, in buying and selling cars and buying and selling oil, he made a variety of fortunes in a number of areas. Really?”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They completely hid it into the Dow Jones Nustriage was actually deceptive in holding people into the market when they should have been looking at the individual stocks.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what was interesting about it is what we now know is that it was the small caps and the mid caps that had been rolling over for some time that caused that particular situation. But if you were simply looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is a big cap index, you could never see the weakness that was occurring in the small caps or the mid caps.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And at the same time. Around 35% of all the stocks on the New York stock exchange were already down by 20% or more from their highs. So on the top day of the Dow Jones Industrial Leverage, 35% of the stocks were already in bear markets.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The first stock on the list was not at new highs. And the second stock on the list was not at new highs. And the third stock on the list was down about 2%. And I thought something's wrong here because this is supposed to be the high for the market. And that was part of the present The recognition that the market doesn't exist at major market tops. It's all about individual stocks. And so what we found from just that serendipitous Wonder what was going on in that day. We found out that 2.3% of all the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were at new highs that day.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, this whole study in 1929 was the same kind of a thing. We were doing a study in 1929. We were collecting this data and a very boring process. It occurred to me, you know, I wonder what was going on in people's minds in September of 1929. What are you supposed to news stories were that were in the journal? What was the thinking of the day and so on and so forth? So I got out the microfilm for September 3rd, 1929, put it up on the machine. And there wasn't much commentary in the Wall Street Journal in those days. And so I quickly ended up on the trading page and And I started looking down the trading page and what we see is over on the left hand side is always the same thing today, the 1929 high for each stock was over on the left-hand column. And then over on the right side was the close for that day.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He was not only a good analyst, but he was a good philosopher. He understood human nature. And having an understanding of psychology and human nature. Is a very valuable tool when you're trying to deal with the changes and trends of the stock market.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The problem with that is they're from the physical world. And what controls the stock market is not the physical world, it's the emotional world, it's the buyers versus sellers. So I'm always skeptical of those things that come from the natural world that say there's only so far that a stock can move. If you think of it, the range of human emotion has almost no limit to it. And so to say that certain things can only go so far is naive.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Golden ratio that the length of your arm is the same as the length of your leg or whatever. And it's a physical thing that says no matter who you are, no matter when you're born, where you are in the world, that measurement's always the same. Fibonacci is much the same. It simply says that there's a natural ratio that exists in nature.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what's fascinating is that a number of these approaches are based upon the physical world. In other words, we've all seen that picture that Leonardo da Vinci created of a man standing with his arms spread out and what that's demonstrating is what is called the golden measurement.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Astrology aside. Yeah, what's interesting is there are two areas of interest in technical analysis. One is the psychology side of it. The other side of it is are things like Fibonacci. On my list, and Gian and some of these Elliott ways.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Where there are no buyers lined up in the middle of winter to buy air conditioning units. And so you get a dramatically better deal. That's using the law of supply and demand in a smart fashion to take advantage of the changes in the forces of supply and demand.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And that's simply a case of saying you are going to buy when the forces of supply and demand are at their worst for the dealer. The same thing if you want to buy an air conditioner, you better buy it in the wintertime. Right, they'll buy it in July.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's amazing. In this process of supply and demand works not only on real estate, not only on, for example, everybody knows if you want to buy a car. You buy a car when there are no buyers around. And there's a huge inventory of cars on the dealer's lot.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And if there's only a few people interested in a particular piece of property, then the chances are the value of those pieces of property are not going to increase very much, whereas where they're lined around the block, the prices are probably going to go up because people want that particular kind of house.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's say that you're thinking about buying a piece of real estate. And you're saying, I'm looking for a piece of real estate that's going to appreciate. So, I'm going to go over to this new development that's down the street, and I'm going to say, if I bought one of these houses, do you think that it would appreciate in value? And the answer to that is a case of saying, well, here's one development where the buyers are lined up around the block trying to get in and have the money in their hand trying to buy these buildings. Here's another development mile away where there's two or three people looking at the properties. Which one do you think is going to appreciate in value? So the volume of transactions simply tells you the strength of buyers or the strength or the lack of strength.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's all subsets of supply and demand. So this case is saying, how can In what ways can you measure supply and demand? Well, you can measure it in terms of volume. You can measure it in terms of momentum”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And so an intelligent investor has to learn that they need to be a contrarian investor and they need to view major market declines as an opportunity to make profit. It's the decline is producing the opportunity to buy at extremely low prices. The bull market as it goes higher and higher and higher is creating an opportunity for people to be caught in the coming bear market and suffer those losses. So you need to be able to see whether buyers and sellers are gaining control of the market so that you can change as market conditions change.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How much It's exactly what you're doing. And then that's exactly why the fundamental school doesn't like technical analysis because they're saying psychology is an art form. It's not a science. But prices go up and down because buyers are more anxious to buy than sellers are to sell. What you find is that the major turning points in the stock market occur because of psychology, not because of Evidence provided by the fundamental school. In other words, at a major market bottom, when you should be buying, the economic news is all bad.”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, a supply and demand approach simply says the supply the changes in the forces of supply and demand will warn you of the changes in investor psychology so that when summer is in place or when go back earlier when springtime comes you're aware that this is a wonderful opportunity to plant your money in common stocks and see it grow But it also shows you the erosion that takes place in autumn in the autumn of the stock market and allows you to recognize that a lot of stocks are not going up anymore and if they're not going up then you then you are exposed to the risk without any of the reward and the better more logical thing to do is to go to cash”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We all recognize that at night when it gets dark out, you tend to come in the house. And when the sun is up, you tend to get outside and go about your business. In the wintertime, we wear heavy clothes and we turn on a heater. In the summertime, we turn on an air conditioner and wear light clothes. So we're constantly adapting. We're changing as conditions around us change. But then the fundamental school says, Well, that all applies to everything else in life, but not the stock market. In stock market, we just stay fully invested. We always stay invested. We wear the same clothes all year round. If we wear in bathing suits when winter comes, we just keep wearing bathing suits. Makes no sense at all”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it makes sense that we would look at that chapter and say, okay, now what we need to be doing is because they're saying this is the foundation, this is the starting point, we need to be looking at supply and demand. But somehow the fundamental school says, well, we look at supply and demand for oil, we look at it for real estate, we look at it for gold, we look at it for orange juice, we look at it for commodities, but not the stock market. For some reason, they exclude the law of supply and demand from the analysis of the stock market. That's a fascinating thing how the stock market is all of a sudden excluded or supply and demand is excluded from the stock market. It's almost the same as saying”
2015-10-25 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul Desmond: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source