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Paul Eremenko
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- 2022-10-20
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- 2022-10-20
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“Well, first of all, I'll say that I think they're taking it seriously enough to where there's quite a bit of work in this direction going on today I think no one has committed or announced a hydrogen program quite yet, but that's because a new program is not due until probably later this decade. But I think long before a decade from now, Guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the US or in Europe or in other parts of the world, for ticket price that will be equivalent or lower with a comfort knowing that the airplane is producing nothing but water.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think it's a sin. I think it should be hydrogen powered. And while we do not yet have a product offering in this space, it's certainly something that we're thinking about. We don't want it to distract us because we think that decarbonizing the single aisle segment is by far the highest impact thing that we can do. But it's certainly a segment that is addressable by hydrogen. And we're certainly looking at a product offering in that space.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, commercial aviation has been one of the greatest engines of growth in global prosperity and sort of interdependence and cultural understanding and ultimately peace. Since the beginning of the Jet Age. And aviation has to be not part of the problem, right? Right. Otherwise, if we continue on as we do today, right, flying airplanes on hydrocarbon fuels, then eventually aviation will, today it's a few percent of global CO2 emissions. Very quickly, I think aviation will start to stick out as a sore thumb, right? As an industry that is incredibly difficult to decarbonize and doesn't have a credible decarbonization roadmap, at which point the only way to tackle it will be to reduce traffic volumes. And I think that will be bad for the industry, but I think it'll be bad for humankind.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, airplanes are pretty well designed to withstand wind gusts and turbulence and things like that, and no airline would obviously fly an airplane into a storm. I think the weather extremes that we're seeing will introduce additional perturbations into the air transportation network. There's no doubt about that.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That has not historically been done in the aviation industry. And I suspect that the airplane and engine makers would not like such a regime, right? Sort of a patchwork of regulations that they have to comply with. But look, to me, this is an existential crisis for the industry and climate change is potentially an existential crisis for the world, for our species. So I think no measure should be off the table, even if it upsets the order a little bit that we're all used to. So if a proactive jurisdiction wants to flex its muscles and try to catalyze change in the space, I'm all for it.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification. And we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and then throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right? That's not a recipe for success. We have a very experienced team. We have a former head of the FAA that's on our advisory board. We have people who have certified a lot of aviation products in their careers. And we have a very constructive, very positive working relationship, I would say almost side by side, because the FAA has to gain an understanding and a comfort level with hydrogen that is on par with 60 years, 70 years of learnings from jet fuel and do so in the span of just a couple of years, right? So it has to be a very constructive partnership between us and the agency.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where instead of a tube with two wings, the whole airplane is wing-like shape and has a lot more volume to accommodate both the passenger, the cargo, and the fuel storage. Or you would need a different approach to storing the hydrogen. And so we typically store hydrogen for regional airplanes or for single aisle in liquid form. So as a cryogenic liquid, or for smaller airplanes, you can store it as a high-pressure gas, as a pressurized gas. For the very long range, in order to solve the volume issue, you might store hydrogen in the form of ammonia, for instance, which is volumetrically quite efficient.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It can, it absolutely can, the issue is volume, right? So those airplanes fly routes that are half the globe in range. And as a result, you need a lot of volume of hydrogen. And so in that case, you can move to a different airplane configuration altogether.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think the decision to go hydrogen versus hydrocarbon for that airplane is principally a decision of risk profile They would perceive a switch to a new fuel as technologically risky. And the question is whether the risk-averse nature of the industry will allow such a decision to be made.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A similarly GE is an investor in us. And G has been very forward leaning on building a hydrogen burning engine for those class of aircraft. So I think the stakeholders are there, right? And of course, every airline or airplane leasing company that we talk to is incredibly enthusiastic by the possibility of a hydrogen single-isle airplane in the 2030s, because they're the ones that are feeling the pressure from the flying public and from the regulators.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think there's a varying level of enthusiasm between the two companies, let's put it that way. I think they will have no choice. Because the world is literally on fire around us. And I think that it will be impossible for them in front of their customers, in front of the regulators, in front of the traveling public come the late 2020s when they have to make a decision because the new airplane would probably enter service sometime in the mid-2030s. That's probably about the timing. So in the late 2020s, I think it will be absolutely impossible for either of those two companies to say we're going to launch a brand new airplane that will burn hydrocarbons, right? If they make a decision that is not a decision towards hydrogen in the late 2020s for this 2030s single aisle airplane, there is no hope for aviation to meet Paris Agreement emissions targets by 2050. And I'm pleased to say that Airbus is an investor in universal hydrogen. So I think they see the vision. We have a very positive and constructive relationship with Boeing as they're doing various design studies that will inform their decision in the late 20s.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you would do a brand new design You can't do fuel cells in electric motors at that scale. If you're designing a new airplane, you can build a thinner wing because it doesn't have to store jet fuel or hydrogen in it. So the wing can be thinner, which is much lighter, much more aerodynamically efficient. And you can make the fuselage slightly longer in order to accommodate the hydrogen. And it would have to be done by Airbus and Boeing and would have to be powered with an engine produced by a GE, right, or Brad& Whitney or a company of that sort. But as soon as Boeing announces a clean sheet airplane, Airbus has to as well, or their existing airplanes will stop selling, right? All the airlines will wait for the new one.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yep, we replace the turboprop engine with a fuel cell and electric motor, basically. For the bigger airplanes, for the A320, 737 class, you wouldn't do a retrofit. You would do a clean sheet airplane design.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. So we think as a retrofit, it'll probably stop at the regional scale, right? So again, for the ATR, we are developing a retrofit kit.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the retrofits will start in 2025. The way that they're done is that we build a kit and we deploy this kit to the airline or to a maintenance shop of the airline's choosing to install on their aircraft. So we expect to have a fairly rapid ramp up in terms of the ability to convert and have airplanes flying on hydrogen starting in 2025. And we would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 2030s.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely Yeah. Well, and the demand for hydrogen is not limited to aviation or cars, for that matter. There is quite a bit of work on hydrogen in heavy-duty trucks, in port equipment, industrial equipment, steel production, right? There's a lot of demand. And two of the leading green hydrogen producers in the world are investors in our company, Fortiske Future Industries out of Australia and Plug Power out of New York. And so we work very closely with both of those as well as other hydrogen producers around the world. And we understand the footprint of hydrogen production and we make sure that we match customer demand to that footprint, right? And in places where we have customer demand but no production, we have a few years to send a demand signal and get hydrogen producers to develop a new project or in areas where there is abundant hydrogen, but no clear airline customer, right? We go and knock on doors and say, hey guys, like we could do this for you. It would be zero emissions. It would have better equivalent or better economics to what you have.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, one of the issues you highlight, which is the lack of infrastructure, is one of the key issues that we're trying to solve for aviation so that you don't need a fixed fueling station at each airport, right, basically, to fuel the airplane. So that's one. On the cost side, I think because hydrogen is a relatively niche in California and absent in most places, there is not a well-oiled, so to speak, pipeline of hydrogen from green production sources to these fuel stations. And so this is also one of the issues that we're trying to solve. And we act as an intermediary between hydrogen producers and airlines.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You would replenish the hydrogen in essence Right. So you can compare a Tesla to a Toyota Marai, right? Both are electric cars. A Toyota Marai uses electric motors to turn the wheels, but the source of the electricity doesn't come from a lithium-ion battery. It comes from a fuel cell, which in turn takes hydrogen and air as the input sources of electricity. Air comes from the atmosphere and the hydrogen comes from a tank. And that tank is refueled.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That can happen and probably will happen, absolutely. But it's important to note that the future can be electric but not battery powered. Right. And what I mean by that is that all of those electric air taxi type concepts, I'm willing to bet as a second generation after the first generation is battery power, the second generation will be hydrogen fuel cell powered. Still electric.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, there could be a new electrochemistry, but it took 30 years for lithium ion to go from lab bench into mobility applications into electric vehicles and into small airplanes. So a new electrochemistry will take a few decades to mature. And frankly, having looked at the space, there isn't one that jumps out and says, this is going to change everything.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the best battery chemistry that we have today is called lithium ion, right? At least that we have in product form. And lithium ion batteries, even if you take them to their absolute theoretical maximum, you are never going to fly an airplane that's bigger than about 10 people and a couple hundred kilometers distance.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the basic challenge is energy density, right? So the amount of energy per unit weight that a battery can store. And it is almost an order of magnitude worse than the energy density of jet fuel.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You got to lengthen the tube a little bit. You have to add a few meters of length in order to accommodate the hydrogen. And of course, you can get back a lot of efficiency from a new wing that's thinner and lighter. But it doesn't require radical change. It doesn't require the kind of flying wing, blended wing body type configuration.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, absolutely. Any flight that you take inside Europe, right? And many flights that you take inside the US, right, those would be the go-to workhorses of the airline fleets. So targeting that segment makes a lot of sense. And in part, you got to keep in mind, again, that hydrogen, one of the big problems with hydrogen is volume, right? And these are not the longest range airplanes. So the volume necessary to power the kinds of flights that these airplanes fly is quite manageable within the confines of an existing sort of tube and wing airplane configuration. Right.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not so popular in the US anymore. That's right. Although there are definitely some plans for a resurgence of turboprops if they are true zero emissions airplanes and available relatively soon. And that segment is, it's important, right? It's visible, but most aviation emissions come from what's called single aisle or narrowbody. And this is the A320 and the Boeing 737 family of aircraft. I was actually surprised, right? Because these are not the biggest airplanes and they're not the longest flying airplanes. But there are so many of them, and they fly with such a frequency. That they constitute most aviation emissions.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think it's important to segment commercial aviation into a few different categories of aircraft, right? So first of all, you have regional airplanes. So these are airplanes on under 100 seats, right? Typically maybe 50 or 60 seats. The airplane we are specifically targeting as the first hydrogen airplane, which will be the largest hydrogen airplane to enter service, will be the ATR-72, which is about a 50 to 60 passenger airplane, and flies about 1,000 kilometers.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's only a cargo loading operation. So this was sort of the key insight behind the company. It is let's try to solve all of these hydrogen logistics and distribution problems because that's really the missing link in the hydrogen value chain.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, ideally you would use electric or hydrogen or some other kind of renewable energy for the truck as well. So we came up with a very elegant solution for this. And if you want to think about it this way, what are airports good at? Airports are good at moving people, right? They're good at moving cargo and they're good at moving jet fuel. So, our idea was let's turn hydrogen into cargo instead of jet fuel. So let's put hydrogen in these modular capsules and move these modular capsules the same way we move Amazon packages. So let's move hydrogen through intermodal freight. And when that intermodal freight arrives at the airport, we use a And we deliver those hydrogen modules directly to the airplane, we plug them into the airplane, they become the primary fuel tank on the airplane. So there's no fueling operation.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's part of it, right? So part of it is the cost of green hydrogen. Part of it is getting the green hydrogen to the airplane.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. That's exactly right. But you got to replicate this infrastructure. You can't repurpose existing gasoline or kerosene jet fuel infrastructure. You got to recreate it from scratch and hydrogen molecules are very small. So this is a fairly expensive proposition. And if you multiply it out by the scale of the commercial air transportation system, we're talking about like trillion dollar infrastructure investments that will take decades and have to be government financed and all of that.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, in order to explain the idea, I have to explain the pain point. Any good startup addresses a pain point, right? Rather than just markets an idea. So the pain point in hydrogen aviation was first and foremost, as we touched on, the cost of green hydrogen. But there's a second pain point, which is how do you get the hydrogen from a point of production into the airplane? All of that is expensive infrastructure, right? And in order to transition aviation and start flying hydrogen airplanes sort of on scheduled routes, you got to truck it or you got to run a pipeline at most every commercial airport in the world.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the H2O breaks down into hydrogen and oxygen, both of which are useful, right? Hydrogen for propulsion, oxygen for medicinal and various industrial applications. And all of this takes is electricity as an input, and water as an input. And if the electricity is renewable electricity, or carbon-free electricity, then you have a totally clean energy chain for hydrogen production, and that's called green hydrogen. So historically, green hydrogen has been very expensive because renewable electricity has been scarce. And one of the effects that the Paris Agreement has had is a massively catalytic effect on the production of renewable electricity capacity globally. And that's what's been driving a massive exponential decrease in the cost of green hydrogen over the past years.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. So that is dirty hydrogen. But there is a clean way to produce hydrogen, and it's a very simple way, which is called electrolysis. And with electrolysis, you basically pass electricity through water.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Probably was not. That's correct. And so the easiest and cheapest way to produce hydrogen is to take a hydrocarbon, like methane, kerosene, right? These are all hydrocarbons, fossil fuel molecule, and break the hydrogen in the carbon, keep the hydrogen, but then you got to do something with the carbon. And typically that carbon then goes into the environment and has all of the adverse consequences.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. So it's been the holy grail for quite some time, even apart from emissions, just from a performance perspective. The issue has always been can you get enough hydrogen? And in particular, can you get enough green hydrogen? And people like to say that hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but it is generally not naturally occurring on Earth, right? So you have to produce it.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, hydrogen is not a new idea. First manned or crewed hydrogen airplane flew in the 1950s. The Soviets actually flew an airliner called the Tupolev 155 on hydrogen in 1988. So, this has been done before, and hydrogen is in many ways the ideal aviation fuel. It has the highest energy content per unit weight. So it's the most weight efficient energy carrier.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. And there are not a lot of alternatives. So batteries don't really scale for the large aircraft, which are the ones that produce most of the emissions.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. Of the global whole, it is a relatively small fraction, but it is the hardest to decarbonize. And so, as the other sectors in cars, right, there's a meaningful movement towards electric vehicles And there is a path to get automotive to a Paris Agreement type emissions reductions trajectory. There is no such path for aviation.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's right. I mean, for me, the signature and the ratification of the Paris Agreement was a really catalytic moment, right? Which the Paris Agreement requires to get to zero emissions by 2050. And I was very much the squeaky wheel both in the Airbus C-suite and then in the United Technologies C-suite, saying, hey, guys, we signed the Paris Agreement, right? Like we as a species signed the Paris Agreement. What are we as an industry going to do about it? Because aviation traffic volumes double about every 15 years. Overall, if you look at the fraction of all emissions that we produce as a civilization, aviation is a relatively small fraction. But that few percent is still more than the country of Germany.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would say at the time, electric propulsion was just coming into its own for aviation. And it took longer than for cars because everything for airplanes has to be lighter and more reliable. But batteries were becoming good enough.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I did a few things in between, but ultimately did end up at DARPA. And so I was there for four years. I spent three years as a program manager running a space program and an advanced design and manufacturing program for complex defense systems. And then my last year at DARPA, I spent running what's called the Tactical Technology Office, which is the big systems office. So it's the one that does all of the robots, satellites, X-planes, and other large systems at DARPA.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I did it because I was interested in how decisions were made about what kinds of aerospace products we need to build. So I was on the engineering end of a DARPA program as my very first job out of grad school. And so I got very interested in how the defense department, how the Pentagon figured out what to buy and when, right, and how to manage those acquisition processes. And so I was very interested in sort of national security law and kind of getting into the machinery of government and into the acquisition process.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At a little airport. Yeah. A little airport in Lafayette, just across the river, in the middle of a cornfield. No control tower in sight. It was actually a pretty nice place to learn how to fly, my flight instructor told me when I went on my first solo. If you get confused, if you get lost, just find the nearest water tower and read the name of the town. And ever since then, my career has sort of oscillated between commercial aviation and space. And so certainly the last years and the last few roles that I've had have been on the commercial aviation side. But I hope one day to return to the space side.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, definitely I was a space cadet growing up, and I was raised on the works of science fiction, of the likes of Jules Verne and Arthur Clark and Isaac Asimov. And so I always dreamed of space exploration and interstellar travel and things like that. But very difficult to have anything actionable to do. So I went the closest thing to that was, hey, go learn how to fly.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, not good enough. I think it was always my father's aspiration that I follow in his footsteps, and I was never quite, quite good enough. So I settled for next best being an engineer.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“First, we landed in Kentucky, in Lexington, Kentucky for a year, which is where I had to shed any trace of a Ukrainian accent and learn English, but also subsequently shed a southern drawl. And then we moved to West Lafayette. My dad's a math professor, still is there. And my mom is now retired, but was also at Purdue.”
2022-10-20 · How I Built This with Guy Raz · HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT