YouSaid · the spoken record

Paul Hodges

lines on the record: 173
first: 2024-01-13
most recent: 2024-01-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yes, but at the time that he asked the question. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, but why do you think Powell is, I mean, I have a respect for Paul and the dataset inflation has fallen like a stone and the unemployment rate has not gone up. I mean, he's looking pretty strong right now. Make your make. What's your BR”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even though if I remember, I think it was November of 2020. Chris, who is a great journalist who I like his questions. I was actually wrong. The market was actually down, but he said it was up. And then Powell was worried that it was up because it was easy.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so you're just in this cycle, which has gone on for hundreds of years. And so you will now move out of, people will realize that Paul, I mean, look at Powell's performance at press conferences. There was the wonderful one a year or so ago where the statement was all very negative and rates are going up and so are the market falls and then he starts to speak and he can't resist saying oh but Chris Rondebaro of a has the question you know after half an hour Mr. Chen are you happy that the market has gone up oh no”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Essentially, you have a cycle of brokers who are doing the short term thing and making money, and then everything blows up. And then you get in some more sensible people who for a while actually run things on a more longer term basis and so on. That's what we've seen. We had Paul Volcker coming in, pretty sensitive, actually Greenspan was pretty sensible for most of his time. I met Greenspan. I thought he was very impressive when I met him down in Houston. So he knew what he was doing. And then you get in the Belankis, the Yellens and the Powell.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All I wanted to say is, you know, you know I'm really very boring and it shouldn't be on public display, but I did actually read David Kiniston's history of the Bank of England, which is the oldest surviving. And, you know, Kiniston is a terrific historian. It's really interesting. It's actually a page turner, even if you're not that interested. And what you see is that you go through these cycles”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exciting time, but I do think, I mean, even in 2008, I mean, it was the Federal Reserve that cut rates. They couldn't control the real rate LIBOR, the offshore euro dollar rate. That's another thing, but that does not exist anymore. And I mean, maybe I'm sure it will be the market pricing it in and the very smart bond market, which, you know, I think is very overrated, you know, we'll have priced it in before, which always happens. But that doesn't mean that it won't be the Federal.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I mean, people, if there is recession and deflation, actually the freight becomes irrelevant because the markets take over again. All this glory-seeking of the Fed governors going out, no, look at me. You just go back to being, you know, the market decides. This is what used to happen and this is what will happen again. So we won't have to worry about reading the paper and being all excited about who said what to whom and what they didn't say, etc., less interesting interviewers, interviewees for you, Jack, but I thought we'd be glad.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But that's not a secular bull move, a secular bear move in rates. That's a blip in the same way that there was some one month treasury bills yielding 7% for a few days during the last debt steel exandoff because they were worried not that they wouldn't be paid back principal, but that they wouldn't get their interest payments. So it was actually irrational pricing it or the appearance of rationality. But if there is a recession and there is deflation, the Fed has to cut rates significantly and bond yields should.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have tried this with abortion, and it seems to have backed that in a number of places in them and so on. So there are issues around the strategy which are becoming more and more apparent. But I don't see Johnson making any sign of looking for an agreement. I don't see the Republican and the Senate pushing him. So all I'm saying is you and I will agree that it would be completely stupid and it would, all of this would not be good news at all. I reckon there's at least a 10 or 20% chance that it might happen that we won't go three months or so. We've been three months or so before.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, now Johnson, obviously, you know, you're not going to bring the government down before Christmas. That would be not a good move. But if you want to make a pitch to your voters, and the key thing here, the reason that I'm making this point is we've moved away from government by consensus. We're not talking about a government. We're not talking about media, where we try and find how do we come together here. Ever since Goldnove came in 2004 election, how on earth do we get George Bush Jr. re-elected after this disaster of Iraq? Oh, let's divide the country up and have a debate about gays in the military. Ever since then, policies have been based not on trying to find the middle ground, but on trying to find the most extreme ground that will motivate your voters to go and vote more than the other side. Now it's quite complex.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, I mean, he'd have this mouth, you know, there are always warning signs here. I can't remember 14 or 15 votes before he actually got it. So that, I mean, I don't know the guy, you know, but that tells me he's pretty determined, right? So he battles through, I wouldn't have bothered going through that. I don't think you would have done. But anyway, he did it. And then he was thrown out anyway.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the base case is that the printing continues. But actually, the politics, say the printing can't continue because the Republicans, the tea party group or whatever, they don't want it anymore. So you haven't got a majority in the Republican Alps group, as far as I can see, to vote for a continuation of business as usual.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, so I'm not putting. Putting it forward as something that's going to happen next week or next month or whatever. But what I'm suggesting is that the mechanism, what you've got is spending is out of control in the States, is out of control in a number of areas. And both parties are guilty of having supported this. But both parties refused to take responsibility for what they have done.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. I mean, and that's where I grew up in a world of geopolitics where you spent a lot of time thinking about what could go wrong here. And then I had 30 years of not bothering to think about what could go wrong at all.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think they've got to pay it back. Some people could argue there can be an implicit default. I don't like the word default in terms of using inflation, but inflate the debt away. I could see that, but you don't sound like there's going to be deflation incoming. I mean, if the U.S. Treasury is not safe and it will be paid back, nothing is safe.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Government, what would he do with the debt? Would he pay it back? Would he say we're going to cancel it? It was put my administration we didn't agree with.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because I had learnt an important letter and they now, what is going to happen when Johnson says, I'm not going to agree this debt deal. For a start, people go, oh yeah, okay, that's a bullshit. It's election year and so on. But I doubt that he's got a majority in the Republicans for doing a debt deal. That's my reading of the situation. He's only got there because all the other people have tried to do debt deals that they've been thrown out, you know, and, you know, he's a good old Louisiana boy. He's used to talking to Crocs and so on and allegators. So, you know, he recognizes the people around him. So if he wants to stay in the job for longer than a few weeks, he's going to have to take it offline and say, no, we won't do it. Now, what do lenders at that point start to worry about? They say, well, supposing this guy did get in.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, you know, down that the administrations have tended not to borrow long because they say we want to leave that for corporations. They borrowed short, which is why the deficit is spiraling. So he was.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you've got political risk now with this. I mean, in the UK, for example, I saw an interview with the head of the debt management office in the UK who's just retiring and has done a fantastic job. I mean, unlike most of the central banks, he's actually borrowed long. So the UK, I think, remember he has about a 14-year average life.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you're talking about credit markets and corporate bonds, that type of stuff. What about treasury rates, risk-free rates, where it's your person you're lending to is the government? So, do you think yield will also rise there?”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's just job. Those guys over there, never, you know, and whatever they say to me, whatever they play, oh, we'll pay you 20%. In fact, the more they tell me they're going to pay, oh, that's not believable. No, no, I'm going back to Jack. So that's the real risk today with interest rates, not whether there's inflation or deflation or anything like that, those are issues around. So the real issue is, is the lender going to get his money back when he wants it?”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think the people have actually put together the idea that there might be major defaults. So, you know, because you can worry as an investor about return on capital. That's what we generally do. Oh, you know, we want to get three and a half percent, four percent, whatever it is, and so on. And then you start to worry about return of capital. And once I start worrying about return of capital, that squeezes all the speculative people very, very fast because I say, look, Jack, you're a very honest guy, you're very, I'll lend you as much as you like.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As stocks have rallied over the past two months, so have bonds. And when bond prices go up, yields go down. So yields have gone down over the past two months. But you think that's just kind of a mid cycle correction. You think yields will go back up.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know, and so that is going to be a recession-proof industry. Interest rates, I would be very cautious if you look at the pattern of US interest rates since they began to rise in March 22, they tended to go up correct, go up correct, go up, correct. And my guess is that that's what we're seeing at the moment. I don't think I'm with Jim Bianco. I don't think that we've peaked yet.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I'm not, you know, I'm not in favor of going around killing people, but it just seemed to be a growing fashion.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, how are you thinking about the market as an investor? I take it, you're probably not terribly bullish on commodities that you don't strike me as terribly bullish on stocks. I mean, the only, I guess, one of the few alternatives is bonds. What do you think happens to interest rates?”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which is why I'm worried about sentiment, you know. I mean, if Apple only gets 15 Trillium Valley tomorrow, what do I do? I'm lost.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, yeah, I mean, this stock market rally over the past two months has been so extreme that it's funny to me that we've had three days of mild declines in the stock market. You're saying, oh my God, I'm saying we're within 3% of all-time highs on the S&P 500.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To have secondhand clothes, wear granny clothes and so on. I was walking through an airport this week, in fact. And there in the middle of an airport where you expect everything was a store selling second-hand clothes. We're very, very tarted up and glamorous and so on and so forth. But they were second hand. So I think there are quite a lot. I think we come back and talk in a year's time. I think we'll look at a number of the signs and say, well, wait a minute, it's actually these have been growing for quite some time and there were warnings there.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The only question about Apple is when it's going to get to $15 trillion market cap and so on. And nobody's, well, actually, sales of Apple have been going down. And Apple's market share has been going up. Apple, I believe, has been quite clever because what they've done is they've actually now cornered around 50% of the used handset market. And so they're selling, they're taking and refurbishing handsets and selling that, and they're getting an income through the app store. Now, the app store is coming under a bit of pressure from regulators and so on. Okay, it's a different question. But they're not making all their money from selling iPhone 15s now. They're diversifying a lot into used phones and so on. And those aren't very expensive phones, that's 50 on. Most kids now, the parents give them a used phone. It's interesting. I travel around and so on. And there's been a growing market for second hand clothes. And it's becoming very fashionable.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Acceptance of risk. You know, I have a view of risk, you have a view of risk. If we're more or less aligned, we may both be wrong, but that's okay sort of thing, both of us can adjust as we learn more. But if nobody has any sense of risk at all and they're blindly going on assuming that everything is okay, that's when you have a problem. This euphoria thing, you know, and if you're an investor, the one thing that you watch out for is euphoria because all markets, particularly a market like this, which has gone on very strongly through everything, has a blow-off. Now, was the pre-Christmas rally was at the blow-off, we'll find out, I suppose, you know. But these things, what worries me about it is that when you get into very high levels of speculative excitement and when you believe that Apple”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Take Jamie Diamond, you know, who's not normally someone who's going to talk down America or anything. He's been sounding an alarm for quite some weeks now. He's been sounding off about the fact that he sees much greater risks in the economy than the general.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're absolutely right about the it's not anecdotal data, but it's what the individual companies are reporting on the Walmart, the earnings calls and stuff like that. I would say a year ago people, two years ago, people say that the savings are going to dry up and they haven't so far. And I think that for Bank of America, I mean, the CEO publicly said people who make the numbers up, you know, people who had on average $2,000 in their checking account in 2019 now have a multiple of that. Anyway, this is Bank of America. This is not Goldman Sachs' private wealth management super fancy client.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we know rents have gone up and mortgages have gone up. So if you're on the right side of these things, you're okay. But if you're not on the right side, let's face it, 325 million people in the States. So not all of them are going to be on the right side. And you've got a significant percentage. If you've got tens of millions who are falling out on the wrong side and that number is increasing, that's where your risk comes from.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I would put it the other way around if people are having to do that in order to buy their basic needs, which is what the Walmarts and so on are telling us. You know, if you talk to the retailers, you know, we're not talking about Fifth Avenue here, we're talking about where do ordinary people go, Joe and Jade Doe, where do they go? What's happening to them? They are very, very pressed for cash for the basics. And so my argument is that what we seem to be seeing is they've spent their excess savings, right? They haven't got it.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Isn't that stimulated though? I'm not saying it's good for the soul that you work a hundred hours a week and then you either working or consuming and you never sleep, either work, consume, work, consume. But for an economy, having two jobs, that means they can buy more stuff. And that means.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, sorry. So three, six months ago, everybody had more money. The latest data seems to suggest that the top 10% or top 20%, depending on who you talk to, still have more money saved than they did before, but the other 80% or 90% don't. And what seems to be happening, and we can see that in the data, you've got a lot more by now, pay later going on. You've got a lot more, if you look at the jobs data, one of the key findings, which is probably right, is that people are taking on two jobs.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But let me just add one query to this, which is we do know, and we agree, you and I agree, that until the quarter three, at least, everybody had more money in savings than they had before.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if that was the only data set, I think those weaknesses that you point out, the low response rates, I mean, I don't know enough, but I grant you that. But I think there are other data sites that verify the strength of the labor market. There's there's the Atlanta wage tracker, there's the disposable income that it shows, I mean, there's tax receipts that shows that Americans their incomes are rising. In 2022 costs rose more than incomes, but in 2023, and I can't believe it's 2024, incomes rose more than cost. So I do trust that data not because I think that the measurements are perfect, but because I think other data verifies it. And if there's kind of a triangulation of, if the other data is in a certain, the other data indicates that that data is right. Does that make sense? Or in the ballpark.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I know, but what I'd ask you is how reliable is all this data? Are we getting 80% response rates as we used to do, right? 80%, I know, okay, they'll be outliers and everything else, but broadly speaking, but if you're getting half that response rate and you're guiding policies and you're getting these tremendous revisions going on, you've got to ask yourself, am I navigating, you know, through a cloud here?”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the insurance costs are going up. You know, the average insurance cost, I think the AAA said is $2,000 now a year. And so you've got a tremendous expense going on here. So loans will obviously be one of the pressure points that will cause problems sometime this year. That's no doubt now. So that's what I mean. Once the economy starts to roll over, it doesn't roll over slowly and say, oh, by the way, Jack, come back in six months and you'll see a bit more decline. It goes, oh, I don't like that anymore because people pull back. Sentiment. Sentiment is really important in this game. And at the moment, if sentiment is euphoric, you know that it doesn't take a lot to change it to despair.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The debt but if you're not a growing society you can't grow on the scale that's happening at the moment by any means what you see is the deficit keeps rising and the deficit isn't just a government deficit this deficit across business across individuals you know the New York survey that comes out and so on I mean look at autos we haven't talked about autos that could but yeah auto auto loan lending is up over a trillion dollars people you know i lived in the states you know you have to have a car in most parts of the states in order to get anywhere and people that people because the prices went so high and the average price nearly hit 50 000 well who can afford 50 000 dollars if your average earnings are 70 000 and if you're not earning average you know so on so and used car prices went up as well so you took out you know you had to take out large loans and people are now underwater on those loans”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, so they get American consumers get the benefit of lower prices, but they also get the disbenefit of the two things don't go along. Now, if you're still a growing society, you can probably live with.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One of the issues that the states has got is that you talk about it being the legend of the last rule, it's the buyer of last resort. So China's surpluses and the surpluses of other surplus countries, which are mercantilist driven through subsidies, vast subsidies in terms of infrastructure and manufacturing subsidy at very, very low wages, that comes at the expense of the states. Of the states.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then you got to put your put on two hats. I'm speaking to the audience here about as an investor, obviously, you want to save a lot of money and invest it and grow. But when you're thinking as a macroeconomic macroeconomist, individual saving is money that's not being consumed. So it's money that's not being earned by other people. Likewise, oh my God, the government's spending so much money. Oh, and thank God my government's so responsible. It's saving money. It has a surplus. Like a surplus for the economy and a surplus, and excuse me, a very large deficit such as we're running the US is.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you look at what's happening now in China, people seem to be like mad. The saving because medical expenses, they're savings, pension expenses like mad. So consumption is really the opposite. Instead of growing consumption, which is what you need to, consumption is under real pressure now”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's the risk that it's not something that you say, oh, but nothing really has changed around the housing market. It's been like that for years. Of course it has. Right. But now people are confident that the government knows how to solve the problem.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, but the worst case that I'm dissenting for the States is that you lose confidence, that's what I said, about trust in government. If you look at China from 1998, 1998. It wasn't the housing market that caused the problem. It was the performance over zero COVID. And suddenly people lost confidence in the government on his handling of COVID. And you can't be half pregnant. You can't be half confident. So suddenly you lose confidence in the property market as well.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What are we doing and so on? So we haven't got a unity of purpose here which would carry us through. Now in that case, in that case, which is the worst case, you would have a depression along the lines of what you had in the thirties, because nobody would be able to reach agreement on what you needed to do. They would all be fighting each other.”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you look at scenarios and let's do a worst case, right? But I'm not saying this is a base case. Worst case, test out your assumptions. Supposing we do get a major implosion in Japan and China follows suit and people become very alert very quickly to the idea that all this money they've lent there and all this trade they're doing and so on has stopped because that's the other side of the coin it's not just the money you've lent but we rely on parts from Japan we rely on parts from China we rely on business and so on and so forth and that starts to stop and so that then unravels and that rolls back we also already have wars we have political disputes internally about the wars should we be fighting you know should we be supporting”
2024-01-13 · Forward Guidance · Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT