YouSaid · the spoken record

Paul McCulley

lines on the record: 157
first: 2015-08-28
most recent: 2015-08-28
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Two clients and is very good with clients. And he's different with employees who are trying to blow smoke up his backside. But with clients, he's amazingly good”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You don't want to bluff him. And also he has, this is an interesting aspect of Bill that very few people know. I mean, he's known as, you know, a tough boss. And he is tough. I think fair, but also a very tough boss. And he and I are very close, but he, you know, still in the latter years of my career would go off on me sometimes. And I could go off back at him. That's the big difference because we've reached that stage of friendship. But he still to this day believes that all of his success is a function of the client. And he's absolutely marvelous with clients. He's not gruff. And actually, he is amazingly receptive to the fact that I'm rich because I'm delivering what the client wants. And if I don't know what the client wants, I shut up and I listen. So actually, Bill's an amazingly good listener.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's no problem saying Bill, I don't know. I'll have a memo on your desk tomorrow morning with a complete answer. You better have the memo on your desk tomorrow morning with the complete answer. That's a fine answer. If you have the answer in detail, that's a great thing. What's not a good thing is to try to bluff him with bull stuff.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's another way of putting it. If he asks you a question, he wants one of two things, a detailed, complete, accurate answer, or I don't know, sir, I'll be back to you tomorrow morning. If you can't give him one of those two answers but are somewhere in between. A problem.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and Bill and I go occasionally, but he's a very, very good athlete. And actually, this goes back about five months ago. We actually went once with his wife too. We had a great time. When Sue went with his bowling. But once Bill just shot good athlete he is, made the 6710 split. I've been bowling for 30 years and I've only made it three or four times. And he, as a rare bowler, I don't think he bowled much since his kids were little. Made the six, seven, ten split. So, you know, you ever see him, just say, what did it feel like to make the 6, 7, 10 split? It's a nice feeling, let me tell you.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is a very good athlete. Really? He's not, bowling has never been his particular sport. But when he started bowling with me, he got progressively better. And I wouldn't venture what he would roll on an average because we don't roll enough that he would, because I go two or three times a week. Come on, you're kidding me.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It wouldn't be a leg, but if you come by on a Tuesday afternoon at 3 o'clock, you could very well run into me and Bill Bowling, yeah.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it's actually other direction. The other direction. And in a beautiful home overlooking the ocean, I'm sure. And he and actually bowl together in neither place. We bowl together in Fountain Valley, which has the best bowling alley in the area.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But there's not a fairy to Leto. Bill actually doesn't live in Newport Beach. He lives in Laguna Beach, which is the closest.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a bridge so you can drive. There's one bridge to get onto, actually both islands. There is a ferry to Balboa Island. I took that little. It took three.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Actually, the Newport Harbor has seven islands. Balboa is a big one that's also a tourist place with lots of commercials. Lido is strictly residential. There's nothing commercial on Lido. And then there's Harbor Island. There's Seven Islands. Can you drug?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How is that possible? And then I said, Bill, I was working for your company. Oh, now I get it in and out. So actually the next time I get an invitation to a group that I want to speak to in China. I'm going to see that wall”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“26 trips never so Yeah, I was shooting the breeze with Bill Gross about it, and I said, Bill, I've been to China 26 times and I've yet to see the wall. And he looked at me like, how's that baby?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's fun. Actually, I have not been back to China since I retired During my active career, I went to China on business 26 times. Starting in 1993.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And now that I'm retired, it's not just to go in and give the speech and go back to the airport. For instance, what was it last fall? I had a speech down in Argentina and spent five days in Argentina.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People Yeah, and actually that's one where I really don't have an informed opinion. The older I get, the more I recognize there's some areas I just won't ever be able to understand. Sausage making, Washington, some things I would just never understand.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, as a citizen, which I am first and foremost these days is a retired man. I'm discouraged about the fact that Venn diagram, as you speak of, just not really working in obvious sort of places. I don't think Congress could agree on Velveda on white bread as a lunch sandwich anymore. Where's the debate about that?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Common area. Well put, Venn diagram. I don't know. I wish I knew the answer to that question because you'd like to believe even though democracy is supposed to be inefficient. So I don't complain too much about inefficiency in Washington because that's how it was designed to be inefficient. But sometimes there's things that are so singularly obvious that should be done that you would think they would get done. And actually after 9-11 there was one, which is outsourcing airport protection to private companies. We said no, maybe we should actually have that be a government function.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think enlightened immigration reform is to preserve that legacy, which is a treasure for us, but also recognizing that we can have immigration policy that includes having skilled people bring economic value to our country as well. So it's not, to me, it's not one or the other. It should be both. But anytime we talk about reform of immigration, it seems like the political system is, well, if we do this, then we have to stop doing that. I think a blend of the two could be a very positive sort of thing for the country and probably for the first time this month, this week, this year, I may even sound like a Republican. God forgive me.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you're already based on economics, we are a nation of immigrants. We can all trace our origins back to this country or the other. My dad was Scotch-Irish. My mom was German. So there's that historical issue that you earn the right by birth to be in the United States.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a political issue, and I do understand the political issue, which is that our immigration policy has been based historically on family.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, one of the ironies is that The US products that is universally sold around the world, that is wonderful, is our educational system. Call it higher education being one of our most profound exports, even though we actually do it. Right here. We're selling the product to the foreign customer. The foreign customer comes here. It does exceedingly well, and then we won't let him stay and keep a job here. It makes absolutely no sense.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something like that. And actually, you know, I'm not forecasting it as a nearby outcome, but actually I think enlightened immigration reform in the United States, where we have robust immigration, not just on the historical model of family, but on the concept of skill set as well. Could actually increase the potential growth rate of our economy”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so actually, I can put in the best macro Keynesian policies possible. But if you've got a shrinking population, it's very difficult. And Europe has some element of that. Whereas the United States doesn't have a shrinking population. You have the best birthday.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But then the next one, they said, you know, we're not going to do the next one. And so actually, I think Japan has a challenge. Unlike the United States, Europe has a little bit of it, which is a demographic challenge. They're getting old very fast. Very, very fast.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the last 25 years. And Bank of Japan for a long period of time until the current administration said not our problem, not our problem. And now you actually have a forceful Keynesian type of approach, whatever it takes, with monetary policy being subservient to fiscal policy there. So I think they're doing the right things, but I'm not sure you're going to have any sort of bell ringing positive results besides the equity mark. That was one of the free trades of the century when they did that on the equity market. We should never confuse equity markets with Main Street.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Japan has been living in the fat tail of defles and for all of our adult lifetime. Assuming our adult lifetime has started, of course.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Could very well be, and I think that would be appropriate for Japan. The irony of history here is it was only less than two decades ago that the Bank of Japan got its political independence. And conceptually, you want an independent central bank to cut off the fat tail of inflation.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So perchance has to be managed, exploited, and practiced. And you see it there. We actually see it a little bit south of here down in Washington, D.C. I mean, when you see a congressman stand up and say about somebody on the other side of the aisle, my good friend. What do you think, Barry?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah We always include, well, let's just, you know, quit the pretense game and get here. But in the political world, pretense is a currency. That's interesting.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. So, therefore, Harry kept his car. There was no embarrassment, you know, and you, you know, had a loan, you know, for 30 years for 200 bucks.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No one makes that pain, and I don't think there would be quote unquote an official type of default because that would be too much embarrassment for too many people. So I think it's more of a roundabout type of default. In an example, suppose when you graduated from college, you had a buddy who owed you 200 bucks. You could declare an event of default and say, hey, Powell, you owe me 200 bucks. We're graduating. We're out of here. Give me my 200 bucks. And if you're not, I'm going to take your car. You know, that would be declaring an event of default. I can say, Harry, you know, when you get to 200 bucks, you know, give it back to me. It's your 30th year union. Harry gives you the 200 bucks. Was there a default there?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The drachma. That's my scenario. Yeah. And I think we've all run that through our brains and say, you know, it's hell between, you know, for the next two years to get there because it would actually take two years to reestablish a currency in a banking system and all of that sort of stuff. So it would be a two-year period of hell. But on the other side, there may be a story of redemption. But I don't think that... No”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's the only thing I would say is I think they are the beneficiaries of a weaker currency than would be the case in the absence of the problems down south.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No. That would not be my base case scenario. But if they were to exit and effectively do a euro became the mark, how much stronger would it be? And the answer is much. Lot, yeah”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Excuse me, the euro would be a lot stronger than it is right now. And so Germany benefits from the fact that Its currency is drugged down by its neighbors. So the exporting machine called Germany. Benefits in some respects because there are other people in the house that are making their currency weaker than would otherwise be the case. And I think we've all played the counterfactual game in our brain. Suppose you had the weaker countries of the euro exit. And that's not a forecast. I don't think they're going to happen, period. Not even Greece.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the better part of valor for me would be not to comment On that, what I will say is that The euro is a lot weaker Then would be the case if the club med countries were not in the euro. The euro?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I want to know who are the other side of the trade is. Germany actually absorbs global aggregate demand as opposed to contributing to it.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Got no comment on that. What I will say is that the German perspective that everybody should be just like Germany Is a paradox of aggregation because if everybody was just like in Germany, then we would start to have to trade with Mars because Germany runs chronically a Surplus on trade for everybody else. And double entry bookkeeping requires if one person runs a surplus, somebody else has got to run a deficit. It's a zero-sum game. It's a zero-sum game. So if Germany says everyone should be like us.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absurdity squared. That's all I can say, man. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever in that, you know, it's recommending a starvation diet for an anorexic. But it's more. It makes no sense.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It may have been timely, but unfortunately it was temporary. I'm not sure it was particularly well targeted. So it's better than nothing.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I certainly agree with him on that. I mean, Larry Summers used to, you know, temporary, timely, and targeted. The three T's.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You had elements of Anesian response actually in the physical stimulus package. TARP was not part of the fiscal stimulus package. So”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To fine tune the whole sort of thing. It's, you know, what constitutes a fat man in Speedos. I mean, I'm sure you could have people debate the whole issue, but, you know, I kind of know him when I see one. Okay.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Neocasianism simply Keynes updated for new information, new techniques of analysis. There's not a whole lot of difference. I'm sure that you could have an academic to debate. Noah Smith is the good.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If Paul Krugman can't make headway in explaining the obvious that I have to bow to the impossibility of doing it because there's nobody better at the pen than Paul Krugman.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And Paul does an absolutely fantastic job of trying to explain the difference between micro and macro, trying to explain the ISLM model. Paul is incredibly articulate and prolific. And he pulls his hair out trying to convert the unconvertible.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Should keep up with John. Have no desire to do that whatsoever. And I think in terms of, I think the single best evangelist for right thinking in macro. Is Paul Krug”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've only written one book in my lifetime and I don't think I will write another one. That was actually around the time I met you in 2006, which was when I had an incredible day job. So it was quite a task to try to produce a book at that juncture. So I don't anticipate writing another one.”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But people don't want to go to that logical conclusion because then you were saying, well, are you saying that thrift is a bad thing?”
2015-08-28 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Paul McCulley: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source