YouSaid · the spoken record

Peter Atwater

lines on the record: 89
first: 2023-11-22
most recent: 2023-11-22
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“That what I think doesn't matter to be successful, I need to understand how others think and feel. Because at the end of the day, my price is a function of their behavior.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And to your question about sentiment, I think a lot of economists and finance professionals focus a lot of energy on what we do poorly, what we do wrong. And I think we need more attention on what do we just do. You know, if our objective is to change people's behavior, we need to understand what do we do that's unscripted. And I feel like the reason I wrote this book is to say this is what we just do. And if I understand that better, then I can start to make better decisions.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, in the world of finance, I would say don't feel beholden to New York. I think there's a lot of folks who come out of college with that, you know, if I don't make it New York. And what I love so much about finance today is that there are opportunities in so many different angles of it in so many different places.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because I'm trying to capture what's going on in politics and economics and finance all at the same time, that by the end of the day I want to go pull weeds in the vegetable garden. Reading is, I'm embarrassed to say it, but it just takes me a couple of days on vacation before I can crack a button.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think of some of the mentors I had at JP Morgan, particularly a guy named Dave Wakefield. Going into an organization like JP Morgan when I did, it was an organization that was about to undergo mammoth transformation. And what I so value was the wisdom of what we might refer to now as old heads. You know, the world of finance is typically filled with young, aggressive. You had these folks who would like yes and, you know, to your point, they'd seen it before. There was nothing new under the sun. And I really feel like a lot of organizations miss that sense of judgment. And so I feel really blessed to have had that.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we're streaming murders in the building. My wife assesses and trains autistic adults. And so we've been watching Love on the Spectrum, which is a really heartwarming. You know, I watch what my wife's organization does to transform autistic adults' lives and even more their parents' lives. And so it's really heartwarming to see that there are so many opportunities that we ignore otherwise”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess I would say I am optimistic that we will tire of the uncertainty. We will tire of the powerlessness. And groups will seek to regain or gain, depending on the situation, certainty and control in their lives. How that struggle plays out, I don't know. But there is no question in my mind that the uncertainty will end. It may be chaotic. It could be civil war as groups fight for what is, what does certainty mean for you versus what it means for me. We don't endure this wealth.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what I'm looking for, Barry, are leaders who are talking about empowerment that send a message, and again, this was where I think up, down may matter, is if I send a message of empowerment to those at the bottom, you could easily draw together a cohort from both the left and the right that generates this grassroots movement.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so our media focus is intensely about resonance, relevance. And that creates several problems. One is the media has to follow its audience as opposed to lead its audience. The media also has to create even greater excitement. So I joke often that we've gone from the circus barkers promoting a two-headed lady. The lady now has to have about 15 heads to capture attention. And that becomes unsustainable. One of the things if you think about our culture of followership, the goal is dependence. And so whether I'm a politician, a member of the media, a pundit at large, the goal is permanent dependence. You have to keep coming back to me.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the balkanization that takes place. So as your mood changes, Barry, if I create a more resonant deliverer, and you could watch this on the right with Fox, then Newsmex, then OAN as Republican confidence changed. you will find the provider of news that is most me here now you And the internet and social media enables that like there's no tomorrow. And we forget that familiarity and truthiness are much more appealing to us than the truth.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, but my point is that in the 1960s, as confidence was peaking, we're all watching the same news stories from the same.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On his feet. Quick on his feet, relatively intelligent. And I don't know if it's the case for him, but a lot of comedians suffer from depression. And if you're in a crisis, uncertainty and powerlessness is called Tuesday. My friend Nasr. Friend Nasargami has written a wonderful book on leader crises and the relationship to mental illness. It would not surprise me, Barry, to see young local politicians, governors, mayors who upend the rhetoric and surprise on both sides of the party.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“History suggests that in times of turmoil we choose from within, that leaders that come sort of unexpectedly from below. And not the ones that we expect. I mean, I look at somebody like Zelensky, who no one believed would be a credible leader. And yet, from my perspective, had all the traits of a great crisis leader. Can read the room just.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I don't think we have seen yet the kind of grassroots Political leader who rises from within. And I think that that is a real possibility. What's interesting with both parties is that we have these figures who are seeking to control from above.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. How we use the term old. Old can mean wise, experience, sure, resilient. It can also mean decrepit. It can mean out of touch. And if you think about Joe Biden's career, he came into office as the young buck against an aging group of politicians on a national level.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've seen the same thing in crypto that sense that it's going to come back, you know, it's definitely going to come back. Going to come back and”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In, first out. So no surprise that the meme stocks and companies like Pelletin have just been pummeled. The shots at the top and then they leave via a high story window.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so they buy at the extreme and they sell at the low end and are just brutally punished as a result. But it's useful because bubbles unwind on a LIFO basis.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Two things, it's sort of an interesting combination of both extremes and mood because you have the nihilism that naturally comes with low confidence. And so you have folks who have cash to actually execute that nihilism and buy lottery tickets is kind of what was going on. But you also have the novice and naive. And there are a crowd I like to follow because they're always the last to the party. And they're a great tell, in fact, more recently, we had a little flurry of meme stock behavior in the summer of 2023. It's a great indicator that we're reaching a climax in mood when it's amateur hour.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The mood and the willingness of people to jump into the crowd. Nothing attracts a crowd like a crowd in the markets. And so we should not be surprised if what goes up like that also comes down like that.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, we're going to overshoot. And particularly when confidence is low, we're likely to be much more impulsive, much more emotional than we might otherwise be. I think that was one of the lessons that people missed with meme stocks.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But no thumbs up. It's just cash. It's just cash. And that becomes a useful way to look at where's the crowd putting money, where's the crowd excited, where's the crowd, you know, you wore that you're a you know you can't sit with us and so that that sort of middle school arrangement in the markets becomes a pretty honest sense of where the crowd broadly is Are there managers who are on the other side of those trades? Absolutely when I think about the market's mood the market is a pretty quick deciding homogeneous blob that is of average middle school intelligence. It cannot do system two thinking to borrow from Kahneman. It's only capable of system one thinking so you shouldn't try to don't try to Be too smart, just try to think how is the high school student thinking about this.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so if I'm an investor, I think it's useful to look at the crowd sentiment rather than your own. We're not always good judges of our own behavior. And we can be more honest judges of others. Sometimes painfully honest. But market crowds tend to be almost like a middle school environment where it's very social. I joke that financial markets are social networks with money. Instead of likes we put money in and take it out.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and people look at their diversified pie charts and see all these different asset classes. I look at those pie charts differently to say, how's the sentiment aligning with all of these? Because we have a lot of cooling sentiment in many, many pieces of the pie at the same time.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, we've also connected mood between stocks and bonds. One of the things that was so interesting to me about early 2021 is We had a reasonably coincident peak in bond prices and stock enthusiasm at the same time.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that we saw a major peak in early 2021 in terms of enthusiasm, all the speculative bubble. We're seeing a less robust peak.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ever been? Ever been. And that is us, our natural preference for certainty in cash flow and earnings. And we know those brands and those products. And so that's”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sort of thing. It is, but what's so interesting to me, Barry, is our picks of the companies that we're interested in. So in 2021, our intrigue with futuristic technology led us to buy startups, you know, companies that didn't even exist at that point. Today we're buying shares of Amazon and Google and Apple, the thoroughbred.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, a lot of futuristic investing, and I would say early 2021, we saw a wonderful bubble of it in terms of EVs and space and spacs. What about?”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And on and on. And at the same time, it's like a Jenga Tower, whereas we're building it taller and taller, we're also taking pieces out because we think we can create even greater and greater efficiency. And I joke a lot that our level of scrutiny and our confidence levels are inversely related. The more confident I am, the less I have to focus, so the less I do focus.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And that's always the nature of it. So we build bigger, wider, further distributing the change. We create this complexity. We saw this in the mortgage world where mortgages going from here to there.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Excuse That instant dopamine hit. I want it right now. I want it right now. And so. We're, you know, if I look at our culture, it's incredibly me here now environment. And if I look at its impact, take pre and post pandemic. We go from just-in-time supply chain delivery to just-in-case, to nearshoring. So suddenly I want my warehouses, my manufacturing. You know, you look at Europe during the energy crisis last summer. Suddenly national energy policies, national manufacturing policies, national security policies. Our willingness to rely on complex global systems evaporates in a crisis. We want to be sure that what we need is available within arm's length.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's amazing. We have a whole industry geared towards me here now preferences, Netflix, Curig, all of the iPhone, iPod, you know, everything is geared to deliver what I want when I want now.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. And it's here The cash in the bank isn't close enough. So, to your point, why are you going to the ATM on the Lehman collapse? Because the bank that is around the corner is too far away from you. I want the cash in the mattress. In fact, during the Greek...”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Right. And so, and there's another element to it, which is I need things to be concrete. That psychologists use the term hypotheticality. I hate that word. But everything I want when confidence is low has to be really concrete. It's why we hoard physical cash. We get the water from Costco.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, what we want when confidence is low. Is all about me here now. So if there's a problem, if I'm feeling vulnerable, there's a bear outside my tent, the only thing that now matters is me in this moment right here. And that has a big bearing on the choices that I make.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Benefits the quadrants you're back and forth. You're just back and forth. And you can see it. And one of the easiest ways to see it Berrier is in our preferences.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I think of us as going on this trolley car ride from the peak of the upper right corner of the comfort zone to the bottom of the lower left side of the stress center, and that we just go back and forth in terms of”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The launch pad is important because a lot of our decision making is there anytime we set off on a journey, anytime we're investing, we're making choices without knowing what's ahead. And organizations go back and forth between liking those environments and not. Entrepreneurs love that environment. Give them a steering wheel and they'll put the car in forward reverse whatever it takes. They love that area.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“High control and low certainty, low control. It's like a buy one, get one free. The reality is that our lives give us moments where we have one but not the other. If you've taught your kids to drive, That's an environment where you have certainty but no control, and then suddenly it can go from feeling really good in the passenger seat to feeling terrifying. It's the same thing on an airplane. I call it the passenger seat for that reason. The launch pad is an environment where we have control but no certainty. You could think about this as a rock climber rising up a cliffside. And so the issue is do I plummet to my death back into the stress center or do I safely navigate into the comfort zone? It's the classic hero's journey is comfort zone stress centers launchpad back into the comfort zone.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so there are four environments that I highlight in my book that relate to our mix of certainty and control. The comfort zone where we have both of them, the stress center where we have neither of them”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The means at which we express our level of vulnerability or euphoria may change, but the actions and the underlying nature of the behaviors, the preferences are all the same.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How could I have been expected to be prepared for this And we see this over and over and over, right? And a few pages later, I put up the chart that shows the same terminology was used during 2008, during the financial crisis. Suddenly, you know, once again, we have this unprecedented catastrophe. And we accept that because it mirrors the way we feel at the same time. Right.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and there's nothing unprecedented about the nature of our response, the nature of our stories, the nature of our feelings. It was history rhyming in so many ways. The beauty of the word unprecedented is it became shorthand for almost whatever we wanted it to mean for executives, it became this universal get out of jail free card because”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was on the way up. And so you see these same behavioral traits, same narratives over and over and over. And in my book, what makes them so wonderful is I can put a pin in it. I can identify, oh, we're around here just based on the stories, the actions.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so the more certain the crowd, the less likely the outcome. If I look at extremes in sentiment, there is not only a certainty of what's coming, the expectation is prolonged. Its powerful, it's unstoppable. The word unstoppable is one that always catches my breath. When Time magazine put unstoppable, you know, can Hillary Clinton be stopped? It was like, no, she's done. So appreciate that these narratives, there's force to them. There's a real strong energy to the narratives that is mirrored in decision-making and action that reflects this unbridled disregard for any kind of risk management because I know what's coming. The headlines around SPACs in early 2021 were extraordinary in terms of this cornucopia of clear certainty of what was ahead.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But no certainty. Okay. And so if I'm talking to a group of investors, I'm challenging them with their belief that they should be confident in the first place. So what's the story you're telling yourself, Barry, if you're buying something? Well, now you're imagining the future. Now you're creating this vivid picture of what the future looks like. To the extent that you're really certain what that's saying to me So, when you're making an investment decision, it's okay to plan for the future that you imagine, but you need to be prepared for the future that you can't imagine. But to appreciate that you're making a decision in an environment that is not confidence.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I teach a class in financial economics at William and Mary, and the first day of class, what is it about finance that makes its difference? It's decision-making where the outcome is to be determined. So whether I'm lending, borrowing, investing. And so anytime I'm doing that, I am diluting myself if I do feel confident because all investment decisions are made in an environment where I have control but no certainty. In my book, I call that the launch pad.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I could see that. Yeah. So you're having to just survey the landscape all the time. And COVID is a great example where the visibility that people had was negligible. And so knowing what's coming next, or at least thinking we do, is vital. The second piece of that is a sense of control that I have, the skills, the resources, the preparation, the training. Whatever I need to be able to succeed. So having a clear road is great if I'm behind the wheel, but knowing how to drive is as important. And so the only way we're confident is when those two feelings coincide, when I feel that I know it's coming and I've got it, those feelings are what give me a sense of confidence.”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because we abhor randomness to not have a sense of predictability means that everything is potentially random, which means that I have to be on alert. And that's”
2023-11-22 · Masters in Business · Peter Atwater on Consumers’ Decision-Making Process · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source