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Peter Lynch

lines on the record: 67
first: 2024-09-08
most recent: 2024-09-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Free to add me on LinkedIn. I'm constantly working to enhance the quality and value of each episode for you, so I'd love to hear your feedback, whether it's positive or constructive. So I can continue to improve your listening experience. Have a great day”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wall Street is overlooking. While it doesn't happen very often with Wall Street having their army of analysts with great resources, it does still happen if you look close enough. Lynch points out that the local edge can be utilized to a high degree on asset place. Asset plays require the investor to have a good understanding of a business's balance sheet. The key is to look at the assets on the balance sheet and determine if the assets are at cost or current value. Many businesses are not required to list their assets at current value. So you can find businesses where they may have assets on the books that they bought 30 years ago, such as land that have appreciated by multiples since that time, period. If you live in an area where you know the land is being developed and you have some insider knowledge about the value, you can really see where the local edge can play its advantage. That's all for today. Thanks for tuning into this episode. If you'd like to connect on X, follow me at a rational mrkts or if you're”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ace those three things, you can identify some incredibly good investments. The next category are turnarounds, which are truly putrid businesses. Lynch writes, turnaround candidates have been battered, depressed, and often can barely drag themselves into Chapter 11. These aren't slowgoers, these are no growers. These aren't cyclicals that rebound. These are potential fatalities. Now, in order to profit from these types of businesses, you must understand what catalyst is going to bring the business back from the debt. Being acquired is often a good solution as the acquirer may have the resources to write the ship and improve the financial health of the acquired. I personally don't bother with these types of businesses, but I do see the attraction. Many of these businesses will trade at very low single digit PE multiples. And if they can turn things around in short order, you'll often profit just from multiple expansion alone. The final category are the asset place. These are businesses where a company is sitting on a valuable asset.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mind. These are among my favorite investments, small, aggressive, new enterprises that grow at 20 to 25% per year. If you choose wisely, this is our land of 10 to 40 beggars and even 200 beggars. With a small portfolio, one or two of these can make a career. He also mentions here that fast growers do not have to belong in a fast-growing industry. Lynch actually preferred businesses growing fast in slow-growing industries because it protected it from competition. A much discussed stock that we discussed here on TIP is Dino Polska. Despite the Polish grocery industry growing at a Kegger of only 6% from 2016 to 2022, Tino Polska's share price grew at a compound and annual growth rate of around 60% during that time period. Now, there are three keys on fast growers. One, don't overpay. Two, don't forecast impossibly high growth for long periods of time to the future. And three, understand the competitive landscape and why the business has advantages.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they are unlikely to deliver multibaga results in a shorter period of time. They are now mature businesses, so you shouldn't expect to generate massive returns from these types of investments, but they are stable, and that is why he saw a place for them in his portfolio. The next type of investment was cyclicals. These are businesses where sales and profits could rise and fall in regular, if not predictable fashion. Think of commodities and you're on the right track. The point being here is that If you understood a cyclical well, you could buy it at the bottom of the cycle and sell it at the top of the cycle. Now some investors have made a career out of this and some fail miserably. I would add that if you don't have very good insights and the ability to understand the nuances of when the cycle is going to turn, you can get very burnt. But if you do understand the cycles, you can ride the twin engines of growth in earnings growth and multiple expansion that Chris Mayer has gone over. Now the next category is fast growers. This was Lynch's favorite.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Competition. Now, the next category is Stalwarts, which I see as businesses with a lot of similar qualities to the slowgoers, but have a few additional percentage points of growth. He says you can expect Stalwarts to grow earnings in the 10 to 12% range. A few American businesses that fit this model would be ResMed, TriPoint Homes, Westco International, United Health Group, and American Tower. Stalwarts will also tend to pay a dividend, but there are downsides to paying a dividend. The less money a business can invest into itself, the lower the compounding will be. So if you are looking to maximize compounding, a low dividend is preferred. Another argument for dividends is that dividend paying stocks have less downside during market corrections. At least during a correction, you will still get paid to hold the stock versus a business that pays no dividend. And another potential benefit, Peter outlines, is that it prevents the wrong business from spending money poorly on bad acquisitions. Lynch also makes a point on slow growers, Stalwarts.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Gain when there's a really good chance that your fast grower will give you a 1000% gain. On the other hand, if Ralston Purina already has doubled and the fundamentals look unexciting, you're probably pretty crazy to hold on to it with the same hope. But if you buy Bristol Myers for a good price, it's reasonable to think that you might put it away and forget about it for 20 years. But you wouldn't want to forget about Texas Air. Shaky companies and cyclical industries are not the ones you sleep on through recessions. Now let's go over each category. Slow growers are businesses that are likely to grow a little faster than GDP growth. Think of businesses today like Ford, Procter& Gamble, Utilities, and you're definitely on the right track. These are businesses that many investors like because they pay a steady and growing dividend and have pretty stable earnings and, you know, they do have competitive advantages. Peter noted that he liked businesses and slow growing industries because you could still find some quality growth businesses in these industries that would have very, very little.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For multiple years before eventually becoming multi-baggars. So just realize that even while a business is improving, the market may not see it as quickly as you do. Be patient because once the business starts generating higher and higher profits, it will reward the shareholders of that business with a higher share price, more in line with the intrinsic value of the business. Now the final section I want to discuss on Lynch's book here is the categories for his six types of investments. They are one, slow growers, two, stalwart, three, cyclicals, four, fast growers, five turnarounds, and six asset plays. The reason he separated the stocks into these categories is because he understood that you can't treat investments that are completely different in terms of value and growth the same. He wrote, there's no point in treating a young company with the potential of a Walmart like a stalwart and selling for a 50%.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's cheap and they can't lose much. Now, let's say we have two people that have $10,000 to spend on one stock. One person spends it on a stock that's $100 a share, and another person spends it on a stock that's a dollar a share. Now, if each of these stocks go to zero, you're still losing $10,000. So this information is nonsensical. Now, the second irrational reason for selling is in regards to when you use somebody else's gain and compare it as a personal loss to yourself. Now, investing is a game where nobody, and I mean nobody, will pick every single winner. So you don't want to be FOMOing into a business where future success is heavily baked into the price just because you weren't early enough. There will always be another opportunity out there that is the right fit for you. If you're comparing yourself to others, you're just constantly going to be letting yourself down. It's also worth noting that Lynch found that many of his big winners languished in the unknown.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Really a shame if you sell it. Now, there's always this tug between understanding when a business's growth story ends, slows down for good, temporarily slows down, or hopefully accelerates. And if you can properly designate your business into one of those buckets, you can best understand which business is worth selling or keeping or even buying more of. Long-term investors should be concerned with businesses where growth is accelerating. But a true value investor should look for temporary slowdowns in an otherwise great growth story. These temporary hiccups and growth can often scare away many investors who fear that growth is permanently decreased. When this happens, many investors will panic selfering wonderful opportunities to long-term investors who have a good understanding of the temporary nature of concentrated periods of slow growth. Lynch also discusses two examples of people who sell for completely irrational reasons. One are people who sell a stock because”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Savings going on into the future. But as you age and your wage earning years get closer and closer to zero, that same strategy becomes overly risky. Additionally, older investors who are no longer earning a wage may require income from the portfolio to pay for their living expenses. As we will discuss here shortly, dividend paying stocks have a certain qualities that could be positive for some investors and negative for others. Now that we have a better understanding of how to manage our portfolios based on our time preferences and age, let's discuss one of the most difficult parts of investing, which is selling. Lynch says that many investors follow selling adages that have been set by short-term thinkers. He mentions platitudes like take profits when you can and a sure gain is always better than a possible loss. But he points out that if you've done the necessary work, bought the right stock, and have the business's fundamentals improving,”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the time needed to best understand each of those businesses is finite. So it's up to the individual investor to determine how much time is required for the reacher's process and then to allocate time to potential and current positions. The more positions you have, the less time you can spend on each one. So just keep that in mind when thinking about your own diversification. If you truly don't have time or don't want to bother understanding businesses at the depth that I've discussed in this episode, I think you're probably best off indexing. And there's nothing wrong with it. All the work that I just mentioned throughout this episode can be ignored while you get to make market-like returns. Additionally, since our audience is wide in terms of age and experience, it's worth mentioning how diversification changes as you get older. Lynch points out that younger investors with the lifetime of wage earning potential can afford to take more chances on multibaggers because any potential losses can be made up through”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To know something special about a single turnaround or a single asset play. There's no use diversifying into unknown companies who just for the sake of diversity. A foolish diversity is a hobgoblin of small investors. Now I like this thoughtful view here on diversity, but I also think if you were to follow this advice closely, you'd realize that you'd have very few ideas that satisfy his two points on having an edge and where the business passes all research tests. For the average person with a lot of time, even 20 ideas seems like it's probably pushing it, but it's probably doable. But when you factor in a full-time job, I think 20 becomes a pretty tough number to handle. Now you might have an edge in”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Happen those pension plans need to be continued to be paid so you as a shareholder are going to get further punishment in that case. So now that we have a better idea of characteristics to look for in winning and losing stocks, how do we manage them inside of a portfolio? Lynch had some really interesting takes here that were not necessarily information that he followed himself while running the Magellan Fund. He said that you shouldn't focus on a fixed number of stocks, but investigate how many good stocks you know about on a case-by-case basis. He writes, In my view, it's best to own as many stocks as there are situations in which A, you've got an edge, and B, you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all of the tests of research. Maybe that's a single stock, or maybe it's a dozen stocks. Maybe you've decided to specialize in turnarounds or asset plays, and you buy several of those. Perhaps you have”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the point being that book value isn't always very valuable, especially in these bankruptcy situations where the assets may be heavily marked up. Another one he talks about here is buying businesses whose inventories are growing faster than sales growth. This is a really, really good metric to track if you own retail businesses, groceries type businesses, or any business that requires inventory that it needs to sell in order to generate sales. He gave a really good example of a company that he visited where they had such a buildup in inventory that they had to store their inventory in the parking lot. And this was a really giant red flag that the business was unable to sell its inventory. And it was probably a path. And then the last one here is just to do with pension plans. So vested pension plan benefits should hopefully be lower than pension plan assets. But if it's in reverse, then if bankruptcy was to”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Example. So in 1999, there was a business called MIS International. Now, this business basically didn't have any customers and didn't have any profits. Its stock was trading below 50 cents a share. The firm then decided to change its name to jump on the internet bandwagon, and they settled on cosmos.com. The stock almost immediately soared to $5. So here are a few more red flags focused on a business's financial health that can be easily analyzed to better understand whether a business you are looking at is healthy or not. Using book value to determine whether a business is valuable, Lynch gave an example of Pen Central, which had a book value of $60 and then immediately went bankrupt. He also gave the example of a business called Alan Wood Steele, which had a stated book value of $40 per share. Within six months, it had ended up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but unfortunately its assets were overstated and in a mess, and they ended up selling for only $5 million.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And very imaginative. I assume he called these the Whisper socks because they're stocks that people didn't want to necessarily talk about out loud because maybe they were just too speculative. Beware of over concentration. This can be heavily concentrated on suppliers or customers. So this really reminds me of the early days of Nike when they had to rely on basically one supplier and they ended up having a lot of issues with this one supplier, which almost ended the business before it even took off. But they ended up getting through and diversifying their suppliers. And then another recent example, when you look at customers is Micron Huawei. So Micron was no longer able to sell to Huawei because of their relationship with the Chinese government. But Huawei actually made up 10% of Microns revenue. So losing that one client was pretty painful in the short term. Next one here is beware of the exciting name. So dot-com in the tech bubble is just a really good.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Next IBM. And most of these businesses failed miserably, as did IBM, due to increased competition. The next is to avoid diversification. So you'll probably know the diversification concept from Peter Lynch where he said that you don't want to make your portfolio worse by selling your really good stocks to buy more of your really bad stocks. But in this sense, he's actually looking at it in terms of the business level. And he says that A lot of businesses will use their cash to engage in M&A. And unfortunately, a lot of businesses engage in M&A the wrong way where they're buying businesses that are outside of their core competencies. The next error here is whisper stocks. So these are stocks that reportedly can solve big problems, but they just come with too much hair. As Lynch points out, the solution is often overly complicated.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dollars and 80 cents versus an original price of $20. In company B is now worth $25.90 versus the original price of $10. Now you don't need to be a mathematician here to see that company A is a superior investment. Now this is just the magic of compounding. If you find a business that can plow its earnings back into his business at high rates of return, you can expect it to continue to rise in value faster than a different business with lower rates of return. Peter Lynch gave Walmart as an example of a successful compounder where Walmart could plow all of its money back into the business and just open new Walmart stores. Now, part of investing is knowing what not to invest in as well as what you should be investing in. So let's look at some other red flags and potential investments that might immediately let you skip an investment and conserve your time. So the first thing here is the next something. For instance, many tech stocks in Lynch's time were touted as a”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To businesses that are trading at a higher PE with higher growth than a lower PE with low growth. Let's go over an example of why this is. Let's say we have two companies, which we'll call just Company A and Company B. They both start with a dollar in earnings per share, EPS. Company A is growing EPS at 20% and starts with a PE multiple of 20 times, while company B is growing EPS at 10% and has a PE multiple of 10 times. Now let's assume these businesses continue growing at these historical rates into the future. Which one would you choose? The value investor in you might choose the 10 times PE just because it's cheaper. But if you were looking at maximize your returns, this would actually be the wrong answer you'd want company A. By the end of 10 years, company A now has an EPS of $6.19 versus an EPS of $2.59 for company B. At the same PE, company A is worth $123.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Friends, colleagues, Uber drivers, shoe shiners, etc. Now that we know some of the attributes of a good stock, the next step is to understand why a stock changes in price. Now I've seen pushpack on the emphasis that I personally place on earnings for stocks that go up in price, but I'll stick with my guns. And I know Lynch agrees that it does all come down to earnings. Throughout the books, he gives plenty of charts that show stock price and earnings. And while the price does fluctuate in short periods over the long term, if a business is earning more money per share in say five years than it is today, the stock price will reflect it. Sure, if you look at shorter periods, you will see earnings go up and the price go down for various reasons, but it's very infrequent to see a business with much higher earnings that doesn't also get an increased stock price. When looking at the price of stocks, Peter Lynch generally will give preference”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In terms of insider buying, NRP has had insiders buying in as late as 2023 at prices that are just about 14% below the prices as of August 22nd, 2024. Now the business isn't currently buying back shares because their primary goal right now is to pay down debt and retire the preferred shares. But after that point, they have signaled that they will have significant free cash flows and buybacks will be one way that they can return that cash flow back to shareholders. So this business has many characteristics of a good business, which is what got me interested in it in the first place. Time will tell how that plays out. Now, another point Peter points out to avoid buying the wrong socks are threefold. One, avoid buying the hottest stock in the hottest industry. Two, avoid buying businesses that are getting the most publicity. And three, avoid stocks that everyone is talking about, such as your family.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are in the coal industry, which is unlikely to see significant growth due to all these different renewable initiatives out there. And coal is cyclical as the royalty payments are based on things like coal volumes and coal pricing. Now, the business definitely has some niche characteristics, especially in terms of their carbon neutral initiatives. Now, this is kind of a future call option on carbon sequestration. NRP's property is permitted to store the carbon, which is very powerful as you can't just put it anywhere that you want. Now, in terms of having a product that is needed, I think thermal coal will eventually be phased out, but that's going to be in many, many decades from now. But MetCoal is required for the manufacturing of steel, which is very unlikely to disappear anytime soon because steel is very important into infrastructure. And as countries like China and India grow their infrastructure out, the need for steel is going to continue to be there.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's got a niche. Ten people have to keep buying it. Eleven, it's a user of technology. twelve the insiders are buyers and thirteen the company is buying back shares now instead of breaking down each of these points individually i thought i'd go over a business i've recently been researching and own a small stake in this is natural resource partners using the characteristics above it ticks many of these qualities the simple name natural resource partners is pretty dull and boring sounding to me now it's a royalty business on mineral rights and has a partnership on a soda ash mine so it kind of ticks that uh dull in terms of the business model it has mineral rights that are primarily involved in coal which has a very negative association these days due to the carbon footprint of coal it does have institutional ownership but the coal exposure is a major turnoff for many other institutions”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Go over 13 of the characteristics of stocks that are worth holding on to for long periods, according to Peter Lynch. One, it sounds dull or even better ridiculous. Two, it does something dull. Three, it does something disagreeable. Four, it's a spinoff. Five, institutions don't own it and analysts don't follow it. Look for low institutional ownership. Now, I've covered this already, but I will add that Lynch felt the dream of a great investment would be where the business has never had an analyst inquire about it or if analysts would deny even knowing about it. He said, when I talk to a company that tells me the last analyst showed up three years ago, I can hardly contain my enthusiasm. Six, the rumors abound. It's involved in things such as toxic waste, dirty things like garbage, and or the mafia. Seven, there's something depressing about it. Eight, it's in a no-growth industry.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Views and then adjust them based on your own findings and not on the biases of other people. One of my favorite aspects about investing is that if you find the right business, the decision to sell becomes very difficult.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What could have been. And after Peter had sold Warner, it marched up to over $180. Now, this is a lesson in self-reliance and really making your own decisions. The more you talk about your ideas with others, the more opinions you're likely to run into. While some opinions may agree with you, there will be ones that disagree with you as well. I personally find the opinions of people that disagree with me to be highly valuable, as sometimes others have a different perspective than I do regarding a business, and I think it's up to me to find out if I could be wrong about my current assumptions. The key is to be open about being wrong and attempting to really get to the truth. Just understand that there may be times when everyone thinks you're wrong when you are actually right. And in those times where the best investing opportunities lie. But you can see the difficulty in being one of the very few people who is thinking completely different than everyone else. This is why it's vital to come up with your own”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The analyst told him the technicals were showing that the stock price was extremely overextended. Lynch did nothing with his advice for six months, which was probably the right move. But during that time, Warner had continued to increase in price, going from twenty six dollars all the way up to thirty two dollars. The little voice in Peter Lynch's head was telling him that if the business had been extended at 26, then $32 was likely to be extremely overextended. Lynch checked the fundamentals of the business and nothing had changed to erode his conviction. So he held on. Then the stock went up to $38. And then he writes here, for no conscious reason, I began a major sell program. I must have decided that whatever was extended at 26 and hyper extended at 32 had surely been stretched into three prefixes at $38. Now luckily, this is a type 2 error where you aren't necessarily hurt by the decision in terms of losing money, but you're definitely pained by”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Do just some very silly things. Lynch gives a really good example on Warner. So Lynch received a call from a technical analyst on Warner. Now Peter was not a technical-based investor at any point of his career that I'm aware of, but out of curiosity, he asked this analyst his opinion.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ideas. But the problem with that is one person can have one stock double and have 50 stocks that go in half. So that unfortunately, you can't really use that information in that sense. Second is if you were to get a tip from someone in the past that had a double in a short time. Now let's say that person is buying another stock, which prompts you to believe that a similar result is going to happen with this new idea. Now you can obviously tell there's going to be tons of problems with this. One person could have a stock that doubled and they could have 50 that went down 50%. So this just is not a good way of taking stock tips. So treat stock tips like you would treat a new product that you are really enjoying. Make it a lead to allow you to do your own research and due diligence, but never a justification to blindly buy a stock. Now equally as painful as stock tips is relying on the opinions of others on businesses that you already own that can just cause you”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Listen to stock tips, but treat them as anonymous pitches that are delivered to your mailbox, and two, avoid the opinions of others on the stocks that you already own. Now he lists some very good reasons to treat advice and opinions this way. For stock tips, people will be biased towards the people that are giving them a tip. He gives two really good examples. One being when a hypothetical family member you have who is buying a specific stock shares the name with you and also happens to be rich. When you associate the two, you may erroneously assume that the stock they're sharing with you will also make you rich. And the second one here is if you were to get a tip from the same family member that maybe sometime in the past had given you a name that doubled in a very short time, you'll give them a much higher weighting in future.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That Warren doesn't believe that the stock market exists. The only reason it's there is as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. This helps him make the market his servant, and not his master. In the Warren Buffett Way, Robert Hags from Share some more information on this. For Buffett, stocks are an abstraction. He doesn't think in terms of market theories, macroeconomic concepts, or even sector trends. He makes investment decisions based only on how a business operates. And this is really just a beautiful way to invest and think about the stock market. It helps you focus on the business and eliminates a large amount of noise out there that's just screaming at you to make poor decisions. Now on the topic of poor decisions, many investors are overweighting stock tips. Luckily, Peter Lynch has some excellent advice on how we should treat this type of advice. He has two primary pieces of advice. One, you can”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Part of large conglomerates. The deodorant I use is part of Proctor& Gamble. My toothpaste is part of Halion PLC, which also owns Advil and Centrum. One of my favorite condiments, Hines Ketchup, is owned by the Kraft Heinz Company. So because of that reason, not everything that you use on a daily basis will actually make rational investment. But, you know, keep searching because there definitely are many winners out there that can move the needle. Now, Peter mentions something significant in how investors should think about the stock market. Judging performance based on short-term results from the market is going to cause all sorts of just poor decision making. You'll think you're a genius when you're lucky and you'll think you're an idiot when you're unlucky, which is why thinking of the stock market as an abstraction is so important. Lynn shares a wonderful point that Warren made about the stock market. The gist of it being”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The product picked up a news headline and took off as an anti-aging wrinkle fighter. Investors clearly loved all the positive news as well. Johnson and Johnson's stock jumped $8 per share in 1988 in the two days after the article was released. This added a whopping $1.4 billion in market capitalization to Johnson and Johnson. Now this sounds great and all, but it's a pretty clear example of how irrational markets can be. When looking at the previous year's sales of retin-A, they were readily available, and the product only brought in 30 million dollars of revenue. And to boot, Johnson& Johnson was still under review from the FDA on the new claims that were featured in this news article. So when it came down to it, retin-A product was really a nothing burger for the overall movement of Johnson& Johnson's intrinsic value. Unfortunately, many of the great brands that you probably use on a daily basis are just a small”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the US. Now, if you find a product you use and like and the company is looking to expand, it might be worth waiting a while to observe how busy locations are in other states or countries. One example that I like to use this on is Aritzia. I've been traveling pretty regularly to the US in places like New York, Washington State, or Hawaii. And whenever I'm there, I love going to be a local Aritzia store to see how busy the locations are. I usually see that they're packed and I love seeing that. So the final point here before you decide to buy a stock of the product you like is to make sure that the product produces a meaningful amount of revenue for the parent company. Lynch gives a really good example of a skin cream that was made by Johnson and Johnson, which was called Retin A. The product was originally intended for use as a treatment for acne. But then doctors discovered that it could also be used to fight skin blots and blemishes that were caused by the sun.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, this is a very good cautionary warning to ensuring that a business will take off in other states where preferences can be different. The beginning of the quote I said above actually references a business that Lynch didn't buy, which was called BuildNurse, which at the time Lynch thought was a mistake. But fast forward a few years and build Nurner's excessively aggressive growth actually spelled the demise of the business and it ended up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. While it was great in Lynch's home state of Massachusetts, it just didn't fare well in other locations. Now many of you will be familiar with C's Candies, the low-hanging fruit example. Buffett and Munger had a heck of a time attempting to expand the business outside of the state of California. Before ultimately giving up for a time, but they clearly didn't give up fully as I went on C's website and I can see that they're selling their products in many different states as well as internationally, albeit on a much smaller scale than”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some sort of fraud or has management not have any traffic of success in previous endeavors? These are all things that you need to take into account. The second one is that if you think a business is good in your location, you should actually wait and see if it's good in another location as well. And the third one here is if you love a specific product, you must ensure that the parent company will earn meaningful revenue from its sales growth. Now, I already covered some of the tenets of proper analysis, but in case you need a quick refresher, they are things like analyzing a company's earnings, financial health, positioning versus competitors, plans for growth, management, skills, capital allocation, et cetera. The second point here about a business that is testing new geographies is very important. Lynch writes successful cloning is what turns a local taco joint into a taco bell or a local clothing store into the limited. But there's no point buying the stock until the company has proven that the cloning actually”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then when you look at Google, you know, YouTube is another great video distributor. And even though TIP, you're probably listening to this maybe as a podcast, but you might also be just throwing this on YouTube and not even watching me speak, but just listening to it. So because of that ability of YouTube to work both on video and audio, it's a very powerful platform. And Sig realizes the power of that, which is why you'll see all of our episodes on YouTube as well. Now, Lynch makes it very clear that simply using a business's product is not enough reason to buy the stock. There are three things you must do to find out if a product or a service that you're using is also a publicly traded business worth owning. So the first thing you have to do is do the proper analysis on the business to understand if it has the right metrics. Is it a business that's not growing at all? Is it losing money? Is it piling up debt? Is management involved?”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Recently chatting with a member of the TIP mastermind community who specializes in the food industry, who is privately owned partial ownership of a local food manufacturer, he has come to gain excellent insights and contacts in the things like products that are flying off the shelf in other retail locations, distribution, sales strategies, and observations on margins of different companies in that arena and their competitors. Now all this information he uses to help him generate ideas for investing in public businesses. If you look at Stig, through his extensive work managing the investors podcast network, he's gained excellent insights into podcast distribution and advertising, which is a significant reason why as far as I know, he still owns Spotify and Alphabet. So, you know, the simple reasons with Spotify is it's the biggest podcast distributor in the world and he has worked with them now for quite a few years and has some decent insights into how they operate and the lead that they have over competitors.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To say, wow, this is great. I wonder about the stock. Long before Wall Street got its original clue. The other interesting piece of information that the average person can get on a business is to spot when a business is really starting to heat up. Lynch says that the grassroots observer can witness the power of a turnaround six to 12 months before a regular financial analyst can. And this can give a really good head start to investors that are anticipating increased earnings power, which is ultimately what makes a stock go up in price. We'll be going over this a little more later in this episode. The primary lesson that he imparts here is that investors should put in at a minimum the same amount of work they do when shopping for groceries. Most people want a good deal when they go grocery shopping, and the same should be true for picking stocks. Now, the last great place to search for ideas is through your work. Your work offers incredibly good insights into products and services that a business simply cannot run without.”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Beggar stocks, which are stocks that can double in price or more, is close to home. You can literally start in your own home. A technique that Moniche Pabrai shared at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual this year was how college students with little life experience could find ideas. His solution was simple. Look at your bank and credit card statements and observe where you're spending money. Those are products and services that you have firsthand knowledge of and might have an edge over the market in. Another way I like to add to this is by asking friends and family. I know Peter Lynch got many of his ideas from his wife and children and learning where they shopped, which would lead him to his next area of mining for ideas, which was going to the mall. A trip to your locomot is a simple way of finding new ideas that might also be undiscovered by Wall Street. For instance, Lynch says the customers in central Ohio, where KFC first opened up, the mob down at Pick and Save all had a chance to get a chance to”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cap restrictions that must be met until a business is available for purchase by institutions. Lynch mentions $100 million in market cap, which still seems like the magic number today in 2024. Now let's say a business trades at a market cap of $50 million. Very few institutions will bother with this business as they can't even own it in the fund if they wanted to. But now let's say over a short period of time, the business appreciates in price to $100 million. Now funds can buy in. Lynch noted that this resulted in a strange phenomenon. Large funds are allowed to buy shares in small companies only when the shares are no bargain. You have to decide if investing in smaller businesses is right for you. There are no shortcuts in investing. But no matter what market cap you want to eventually own, you'll need some sort of framework to help you find the company in the first place. And this is where OneUp on Wall Street really shines. Peter Lynch says the best place to start looking for multiple”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Undiscovered gems. We should never strive to borrow conviction from others anyways, nor should we rely on the opinion of others to validate our own. Ralph Waldo Emerson, who had a large influence on Buffett's father, explained this better than I ever could. It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion. It is easy in solitude to live after our own. But the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude. If you want to learn about any business, large or small, you should try to talk to people in the business, its customers, suppliers, former employees and competitors to best shape your own opinion. The final point here on smaller businesses that Lynch points out is why some of these businesses are underfollow in the first place. The simple reason is regulatory reasons. Institutions are mandated to be able to easily move in and out of a stock, and in order for that to happen, there often has to be market”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One is like saying a two seater car is more dangerous to drive than a minivan. Now the primary difference of investing in smaller businesses is the amount of easily and accessible information. If you want to learn more about Google, you can access many years of conference calls and transcripts as well as analyst reports. Or if you have some decent connections, you can find a specialist in the industry to talk to to learn more about the business, how it's positioned versus competitors, and the industry in general. With smaller businesses, you don't always have access to any of this information. They might not have quarterly calls because they have little or zero interest from analysts. There are zero analyst reports to learn information from. And finding anyone who's even heard of the business is going to be a challenge. And often some of these businesses don't even have IR sites or have any types of presentations. But investing is a solitary game where if you are willing to do the work and form your own opinion, you can find some insanely”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's no chance that I ever would have been able to buy it at a PE of eight. It might be at a PE of something like 40 or maybe even more. Now, this is why the contrarian move is to look for businesses that barely anybody is talking about. You'll find hidden gems at Wall Street will once again fall in love with at a later date. And then you'll have your multi-bega returns. The following section I want to discuss is investing in the types of business I listed above. It's not for everyone. Small businesses definitely do have a bad reputation. For every winner you see in the microcrat market, the expectation is that there will be a bunch of zeros. And I don't necessarily disagree with this. Although I think a lot of the negative bias is just that bias. Whether a business is 10 million or 10 billion a market cap doesn't mean the business is much different. It's just operating at different scales. They still have management, production, offices, customers, suppliers, a board, capital allocation decisions, and so forth. To say a smaller business is more dangerous than a bigger”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Selling out a trailing PE of around eight, but it had just doubled its operating cash flow quarter over quarter. Now, not only were the fundamentals shown in the financial statements, but they also had some really big audacious goals and plans for the future that they released in their presentations. And the thing that was really interesting was that after that point, they were executing at a very high level. And even today, a year later, still haven't sold any of my shares. And the business continues to execute. The business is now trading at a forward P of about 20 times with recurring revenue now making up 88% of its total revenue. So you could say it's much more fairly valued now. But even with the business growing almost 200% year to date, the business is only valued at a market cap of about $160 million. Now, if we took the same business that I'm talking about here, multiplied its market cap by, you know, 10 or 20, and therefore”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On the other side of things, being a contrarian doesn't mean you should also be shorting stocks that are currently popular on Wall Street, as Lynch outlines. For him, a true contrarian is an investor who waits for those incredible companies until Wall Street and other investors no longer care about them. If you bring up a name that makes other investors yawn, you're on the right track. Now this has all sorts of second order effects. One, these businesses have very little institutional interest. Two, they will tend to lack much, if any, institutional ownership. And three, unloved investments often carry a heavily discounted price. Now, the best part of all of this is that these businesses often have incredible products that are in high demand. This can spell reasonable and sustainable growth that is heavily discounted by the market, but not necessarily discounted in heavily followed stocks. I own a business that shall remain unnamed, that does a great job of exemplifying some of this. I've own it for a year now. When I bought it, it was”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That this fits in perfectly with a recent chat that I had with Scott Barbie on TIP 651. In that episode, I referenced a quote that Scott wrote in one of his letters. As a deep value investor, if you get it wrong, you can get hit. It's one thing to forecast Cisco earnings wrong in 1999 and lose money conventionally. But if a deep value investor loses money failing to spot an accounting scam on, say, a small mining stock, that can really damage their reputation. Now the primary lesson here is that investors on Wall Street don't have the luxury of purely looking for businesses that will go up in value in the future. They have investors to appease. They have bosses looking over their shoulders. Some even have a legacy that they want to maintain. So fitting in the crowd and not doing anything overly exciting is often the easiest way to pick off all these boxes and act similarly and get similar results to all the other investors out there. But following the crowd”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is that Lynch had? He could see that the academic side of investing was really disconnected from reality. And therefore, it had limited utility for. He made an observation that it's hard to support academic theory that states the market is rational when you know someone who just made 20 times on a KFC investment and spelled out in advance before they made that money why the stock was likely to rise. Because of this, Lynch distrusted theorizers and prognosticators. This point here about Lynch being a contrarian on Wall Street is worth discussing more. When he wrote this book, IBM was the equivalent of our Apple, I think, in 2024. Lynch said that there was an unwritten rule in Wall Street, that you'd never get fired from your job if you lost money investing in IBM. If you bought IBM and its stock went down, your boss would call you into his office and ask, what's wrong with IBM? But if you bought something like La Quinta Motorins and it went down, your boss would ask, what's wrong with you?”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kennedy forced the steel industry to roll back prices. Lynch didn't have any fear for anyone's life, and yet the market had one of the most precipitous drops in history at minus 7%. Lynch writes, I was mystified that the potential of a nuclear holocaust was less terrifying to Wall Street than the president's meddling in business. Now, I really like this insight because it shows that if we can even predict future events, we can never predict how the market will react to these events. And in our ever-changing world, there is always something to worry about. If every worry you have eats away at you and prevents you from staying invested, it's yet another reason that you probably should not be invested in individual stocks as you're going to have a very, very hard time succeeding. Now let's take a short detour here and talk a little bit about what Peter Lynch thought about the efficient market hypothesis. As you may have already guessed, he was not a fan. Through all the experience,”
2024-09-08 · We Study Billionaires · TIP658: Peter Lynch’s Guide to Investing in Your Expertise w/ Kyle Grieve · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT