YouSaid · the spoken record

Peter Singlehurst

lines on the record: 93
first: 2025-03-19
most recent: 2025-03-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Davide, the CFO there, does an amazing job. There's nowhere I'd be able to just The final thing that I think is really important for wine now is an amazing time for growth equity investing is we're in this period of capital where and yes, taking the conversation we had earlier around there are some parts of the market that are still quite exuberant. There is neither across the market I would argue an excess or a deficit. So you're kind of at this kind of golden mean this kind of Aristotelian mean of availability of capital which is providing enough capital to be able to invest, but not so much capital that it detracts from the long-term quality of those businesses. So I think that kind of amalgamation of like lots of venture stuff being tried, lots of experiments, human capital and the right quantity of financial capital just makes me like really excited to be deploying capital in this part of the market.”
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“Think this is the opportunity for bending spoons, right? Like, this is their market because they can take those companies and they can improve the products and they can make them profitable. And then they become really, really valuable. So those kind of companies, you're right, don't stand up as standalone businesses. But in the hands of the right kind of capital allocator, they can generate a lot of free cash flow.”
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“So I'm really excited and optimistic about the conditions under which companies are entering this stage of the market, this kind of growth stage. So kind of going back to that framing that we had earlier of companies around about $200 million mark, derisked on the product side, there have never been so many venture-backed companies that are sort of entering our part of the market. Like there's been a lot of spaghetti thrown at the wall and we get to see which bits stick, which is a great place to be a growth investor because lots and lots of experiments and you can sort of see the ones that work. And so back those ones that work. But then there have never been so many people with experience of trying to grow and scale businesses. So that kind of human capital has never been better.”
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“And then we remunerate people through bonuses, which is of a synthetic carrier, I suppose. But the way the firm operates is that there's this sort of continuous chain of partners who have been responsible for the firm and responsible for our clients and doing a good job for our clients. And the job of the partnership is to maximize value for our clients, but also make sure the firm is in a better place to hand off to the next generation of partners. And so I think there's this kind of deep care and responsibility that those of us who spend our entire careers at Bailey Gifford have for our clients, but also for this organization that we kind of get to be stewards of parts of our lives and hopefully hand on to the next generation of partners better than when we joined it.”
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“A film we've been around for 115 years. We're a partnership. We are an intergenerational, unlimited liability partnership. How does that work?”
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“When you become a parent, there is this sort of little being that starts off very, very small and very quickly they become much, much larger that you care about more than anything you can possibly imagine caring about, that you are deeply responsible for in a way that like it's difficult to comprehend being as responsible for anything else as it is to be as responsible for your children. Or in my case, child, I just have the one. It's amazing, but the good things become like way better than the good things before you have a kid and the difficult things become way more difficult and way harder as well. So it's like everything in life just becomes somewhat accentuated.”
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“So many things. So we had this discussion about adding value to companies. Like, this is something that I was just so wrong on for so many years. I used to say, like, oh no, you don't get it at the growth stage, the concept of value add doesn't apply. Companies should know everything themselves. And that was true in the narrow sense, largely around operational stuff. They should know what they're doing themselves. But what I misunderstood was all the kinds of things that are specific needs to be a growth stage company. We've already talked about them. How do you go public effectively? How do you be a public company? How do you create a great independent board? These sorts of things. I was just dead wrong on that. And I've gone through realize over the last few years that there are so many things that grow stage companies do need help with and that we can be well positioned to help them with.”
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“I think at the moment I would say that I would buy none of them. I don't know what the answer is to enduring competitive advantage at the large language model level. And I don't feel like I could tell you which one I would want to buy without a strong thesis on that.”
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“I would like to have more time to invest in every decision I made. So rather than having, I don't know however much time it is to digest all the work that the team have done to come to an investment decision, I would love it if I could have three, five, ten times the amount of personal time that I could put into thinking about those investment decisions. But we have to operate within the sort of number of hours there are in the day, right?”
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“I've got an enormous amount of respect for Crysto at Wise. He's just a brilliant executor. He just has this deep care and passion about this very sort of niche thing of moving money cheaply and efficiently. He just cares deeply about his customers, his business. He thinks differently and orthogonally about how you go about creating a business. And I've sort of seen that journey as the business it's grown, but as he's sort of grown with the business as well.”
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“I think that if you knew that you couldn't fail, it would increase your risk tolerance to infinity, wouldn't it? You just go and you take the most absurd risks you possibly could because you knew you would get them right. I mean, what would you do? Maybe you'd be like an early stage biotech investor because you would know that every company that you invested in at some super early stage would go on to become a blockbuster drug and your returns would just kind of be off the scale. Maybe that's what you do if you knew that you couldn't fail.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's having these generalizable set of tools that can make any consumer digital application better from a user perspective can grow the revenues and can be run way more efficiently. Their addressable market is the broken parts of the venture capital ecosystem, which is companies that are good products but really bad businesses. And they can take these good products and make them amazing businesses by virtue of being part of Bending Spoons.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that they have the most astonishing business model, culture, and opportunity to be like an immune cell that kind of goes around gobbling up all of these slightly broken businesses but that have great products and generating loads of profit and free cash flow from them.”
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“That you can be a generalist and that you can be a globalist in how you invest and that you can still add real value for your clients by being specialists in growth equity investing.”
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“I mean, they sold tens of thousands of model S or they had pre orders where people put down real money for model S's. They'd proven that they could make a car that people wanted to buy. They'd proven that they could make the roadster. And then the question was execution? Were they actually going to be able to make enough of these things? But you could look at the organization and there were people in there that had built car factories and like had scaled the production of cars. So yeah, it sort of felt kind of obvious at that time. And it was a $3 billion market cap.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, this is kind of going back to when I was doing public market investing. But for me, when we invested in Tesla in 2013, it was pretty obvious.”
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“I think I can always be at risk, right? And it's not just with models, sometimes you can over intellectualize things. And sometimes the best investments, they're quite obvious.”
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“Oh, because I created a very elaborate spreadsheet where I was estimating all of the volume and liquidity that you would need to have in Bitcoin to get to the kind of 5x returns. And it was a very clever model. And I felt like I was being very clever and it was just wildly off.”
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“Yes or no? Like, I do still think we are seeing this trend of institutionalization and professionalization of the growth stages. And there are some high profile names in the growth stage, but I think there are fewer participants in the growth stage today than there was in 2020 and 2021. And you could say, well, those are anomalous years. But I actually still think there has been consolidation within the growth stage of the private markets. Will people kind of come in and go out? Yeah, of course. And so there'll be periods where there are more and periods where there are less. I think we're already at the stage where there are a handful of the growth stage of, you know, let's call it 10, maybe you get to 20 of institutions that are consistent presences in this part of the market. And I can probably name you those. Is that going to double or triple? I don't think it will.”
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“So, you can look at it through like a binary decision of when do you sell, but you can also think about it through the lens of like, well, when do you trim? Like, when do you take something at winnings? Look, this is where I think increasingly in the private market, secondary markets can be useful. So some of our large high profile companies, we have trimmed in the private markets and we've recycled that capital into new interesting high-growth private companies. For those companies that go public, again, in the funds where we can recycle capital, it's not easy. But there's an opportunity cost trade-off that you make, right? Each time you're looking at a new company, which is I need to find some capital to invest in this company, well, where's that capital going to come from? Well, I'm going to get it from where I have liquidity, but also where I believe there is the greatest disparity between the returns I can make by continuing to own whatever the company is, that public company versus this new opportunity that I'm looking at. So it's an opportunity cost trader.”
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“I'm not saying that there aren't great companies out there. There's just, I'm just not sure that there are enough at the scale that you would need to have to make for a very vibrant, diverse growth equity public market in the UK alone. I think that if you were to go around and you were to combine all the sort of growth stage companies in Europe, then I think you could have a really interesting”
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“A really hard question. So I think the problem starts before the LSE. I think that if you're trying to diagnose it or trying to solve the problem, I don't think you would start at the LSE level.”
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“Think it's a combination of there not being loads of amazing high growth companies in the UK enlisted in the UK. So there's a supply problem. And I think there's a demand problem as well. I think that UK investors perhaps as a function of them there just not being that many really exciting growth companies listed in London, they're not as used to analyzing and investing in and their risk appetites are probably not as high as investors in the US investing on the Nasdaq for instance. So I think there's a demand problem and I think that there is a supply problem as well.”
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“I mean, we continue to own a number of our companies after they go public, right? So we're still shareholders in a firm and wise. Would I ever want to go back to just doing public markets? Look, I mean, I am so lucky and privileged in what I get to do. And I think the reason I love doing what I do is because you get to sort of expand the map, at least expand the map for an organization like Bailey Gift. Of course, we're not doing like Series A and Series B, but when we're looking at companies within the private companies team, this will be the first time Bailey Gifford as an organization will have looked at these companies. And so you're starting with a blank sheet of paper and you get to discover these companies and you get to know these companies as people on a much more personal way than by and large you can in the public markets. And I think that's very special.”
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“Gosh, that's asking me to kind of go back. I think that it was, I think at that particular time, growth had come back and I think we had slightly more questions around the build out of a more sort of holistic software offering over and above the merchant acquiring business. It was quite nascent. I don't think they quite made the progress that we would have hoped that they would have made. And so we just said, actually, like we've got meaningful amounts of capital invested in this company. Let's just see how this goes. I think that was a mistake. I think we should have put more in then.”
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“We invested at 30, it got up to about 90, and then it came back to about 50. And we didn't take part in that round, and I think we should have done.”
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“I'll tell you the round that we didn't take part in, that we came very, very close to, so we first invested in Stripe at about a $30 billion valuation, but we didn't take part in the down round that they did whenever that was 22?”
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“Well, so this is where it's slightly varies, right? So, if you're going to double down on a company, then absolutely. Yeah, you need to see a 5x on a reinvestment. If you're going to do a small pro rata check, I think then doing pro rata checks, if they're relatively small, can just be part and parcel of being a good investor, which we'll do can provide that things are going in the right direction. And then, of course, there's the decision not to do anything where we sort of decide not to take part in around where either we're not seeing the execution that we need or we think the valuation just doesn't make sense.”
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“So, when we're making reinvestments, we revisit the investment case, we do an updated 10Q, we re-examine that five times upside case. And I guess you then have like, broadly speaking, there are three different decisions that you”
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“So there's a large range because there are different pools of capital that we invest from, but they can range from $10 million to $150 million.”
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“Slowly increasing the amount of time that we set aside for them because we always get to the end of the discussion, we're always kind of hungry for more discussion. At the moment, they're an hour and a half stock discussions. The investment committee then meets on Friday afternoons. That's a pretty small investment committee. There's four of us and we decide what to do. Now, inevitably, there'll be additional things we want to follow up on, but the core decision-making group for a dedicated funds, there's four of us.”
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“10, but we work within a team of 170 public market growth equity investors and we're able to draw on that resource. But this is just as a team, right? So just as a team, we met a thousand companies. We looked at 600 private financing rounds. We did 65 first cuts of our diligence process. We did 30 deep dives and we made 11 new investments. On the companies that we put through our diligence process, we do our diligence. That culminates in a 10Q, which the note that I talked about. I mean, if you were to see one of these, they look, I mean, we don't use PowerPoint. These look like essays. We sit down and we discuss them as a team. We do that on Thursday afternoons. Every week. The whole team's there.”
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“I guess the decision making process is always a manifestation of that funnel, right? So if I look at last year, we met a thousand companies, we looked at 600 private pounds.”
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“I mean, in the public markets, we have a team in China, we continue to look at opportunities in China. Is there added risk investing in China? Of course there is absolutely. But then you need to be rewarded for taking that risk. I'm a sort of big believer of the sort of saying, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy and everyone is fearful of China right now. If everybody is saying one thing, which is China's uninvestable, you would be daft not to be questioning that and saying, well, hang on a minute, like, is that actually the case? Maybe I should go and have a look. So I'm hoping to get out there over the summer of not being in far too long. But yeah, we will continue looking for investments in China.”
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“Deglobalization. We're global investors. One of the things that's made us successful over the years is finding interesting companies all over the world. The very first investment is a story we love to tell our clients. The very first investment Bailey Gift ever made was in a Malaysian rubber plantation that was producing rubber for the tyres that were going to be needed on the Model T Ford. We've always been global. The very first private investment we ever made was not in the US, it was in China. Sitting in Edinburgh in Scotland, there's not that many companies to invest in there. So our remit, our investment, and our client base has always been global. And from an investment perspective, but also just from a perspective of humanity, I worry about an era of more barriers, weaker ties between countries, because I think it's better for investing. I think it's better for us as people.”
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“I've never thought of myself as an expert or an investor in technology. I invest in companies, I invest in businesses, and those businesses will often use technology to create these incredible business models that are very scalable and can be sort of high returning. But I'm not a student of technology. I'm a student of businesses and business models. Now, there are people on my team who are much more interested in technology itself and also love investing, love businesses. But my focus, and I think this is a focus that perhaps makes me better at say growth age investing than I would.”
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“I worry about it. The thing that people forget about SpaceX is that there's an amazing management team there that is not Elon Musk. Is able to keep a very low profile, perhaps precisely because of the high profile that Elon Musk has. So that gives us a lot of comfort, but is it a concern? Yeah, of course it's a concern.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think there is. There are big differences, right? Like how you go about sourcing opportunities is obviously totally different in the private markets compared to the public markets. The core analytical questions, I think, are pretty similar. You have different sources of information, whether you're doing public or private, but like you're still looking for the same characteristics, right? Like if you make it very simple, you're still looking for companies that can become many times their current size and earn a high return on equity. I think one of the big differences is in what it means to be a good owner of a growth stage company. And there are big differences here between not only private ownership and public ownership, but also kind of growth stage ownership and venture ownership.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I could go into the specifics of the company, but what Andrew sort of conjured in my mind was a pattern that we'd seen in two places before those two companies that it sort of conjured were Tesla and SpaceX. What Andrew have done is they have developed products that are largely software enabled but are still really hard technical hardware problems that they have solved. They have proven that the products work and that people want to buy them. So there's no question about product market fit or do they work or anything like this. And then they are operating in very, very large markets that have largely not changed in decades and where there is clear water between them and their next nearest private competitor. That was true of Tesla in 2013. It was true of SpaceX in 2018 and I think that's true of Andrew today. So it's that combination of really difficult hardware problem that they've solved.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Want to have good owners of companies, right? Like you want to be operating in a market where you have rational investors making rational decisions really solid analysis on companies because you need that market to be sort of pricing efficiently. I think there are examples of that, but I think what you're really seeing is more of like an institutionalization and a professionalization of this market. To give you like one example of what that can look like, where shareholders in Andrew. We first invested in that company last year. The round that we took part in with the insiders in it, but then other than the insiders, the only new investors that came into that round were investors that were traditional public market investors but could also do some private investing. And that's because what the company needed was investors that are used to owning companies at that stage of growth and that scale and over time can help them transition into the public markets.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The trend that we've seen in growth stage private company investing over the last 10 years looks a little bit like this, right? So these companies or these kinds of companies, they all used to be public businesses and the natural owners of them were public market organizations. It was Bailey Gifford. It was T-Roc. It was BlackRock. Companies started staying private longer. So the natural owners and the long-term historic owners kind of got pushed out of owning those kind of companies. It's created a vacuum. Into that vacuum, and I don't mean this in a pejorative sense, but the opportunists came into that vacuum. So you had hedge funds, you had traditional earlier stage investors spinning up these growth stage funds and owning companies that they knew but had never owned companies at that stage and scale before. Post 21, I think a lot of those guys got pushed out, but some have remained and some have remained at Rudy scale. My hope is that they're developing real expertise of what it means to own companies at this stage and scale.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Remember, we did our pro rata in the 60 billion round, which is a little bit different from saying we're doubling down, right? So we stood our hand, we put a small amount of extra capital into it, but we didn't double down in the 60 round.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Trying to remember the first, I think the first one we invested in was about $30 billion. I think we did our pro rata in that round.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're starting to see the evolution of these very large company facilitated secondary rounds, Stripe, Databricks. I can see those starting to become more of a feature. I don't think we'll end up in a world where you have sort of exchanges for private companies. I think you just have too much complexity in the share class structures. You have things like rofas. You have like company control. I can't see those exchanges really working. But, you know, maybe we also get into a world where these companies become very profitable. They continue to grow and they start paying out dividends as private businesses. Maybe that becomes a source of liquidity for investors.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can be helpful for regulators to see you as a public company, which I hold is in epic games. And that's been private since 1992. And I once asked Tim Sweeney, the founder of that company, like how he thinks about that. And he had quite an interesting answer to this. He said that, well, at some point, it will be easier to be public than it is to be private. At the moment, it's much easier to be private than it is to be public. But at some point, the various forces that exist within your business mean that actually the easier option is to be public. And those forces can be needful liquidity. They can be, if you need to be inquisitive or engaging with regulators,”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Focus, it's really hard to be a public company. It's really hard. It's not just the reporting requirements that you have. You can have people owning your shares for all sorts of reasons that are misaligned with what you're trying to do as a company. You have to do everything in the cold light of day. All your competitors get to know pretty much everything about your business because you have to tell your shareholders pretty much everything about your business. It's just really hard. And I mean, I say this, I have the most enormous amount of respect for companies that go public well and are able to flourish as public businesses because it's really hard. So I think companies realize they can have greater focus by remaining private for longer. Now, I think there are some good reasons for going public. I think it's right that employees should be able to get liquidity, but that's increasingly being served by these very large secondary private rounds. I think if you're an acquisitive business, having a public currency can be helpful. I think that if you're a business that operates in a regulated environment, I think...”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Don't need to, I think it's more subtle than that. I don't think it's necessarily about capital cycles within private markets that is leaving companies to stay private longer, though of course it matters. I think what people realize today is that you can build a better business by staying private for longer.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not sure I particularly have a good question to that answer either, and that's why I'm a private company investor and investing in private companies on behalf of my clients. But that being said, I do this from within a large public market organization.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, can't rule anything else out at the moment with US and the things that are happening there. But I mean, the companies also, I think this is sort of publicly reported, they buy back their own shares. They're so profitable.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it'll be public at some point, either in the US or Hong Kong. Obviously, one of those is probably a little bit more likely than the other.”
2025-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The 10 Question Framework a $217BN Manager Uses to Make Investment Decisions | Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvault | The Bull Case for Bytedance | How Anduril Could Be a $200BN Company with Peter Singlehurst · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source