YouSaid · the spoken record

Ray Dalio

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119
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2017-09-13
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2017-09-13
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  1. “You nailed it. It was great. We were both like the same thing. We were both nervous that we were going to do a lousy job and we both got through it well. Anyway, thank you also for your. Very interesting questions and the wonderful exchange. Thank you”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “They'll just have their own principles that they believe in, be open-minded, write their principles down, compare them with others, find out, be guided by principles, be a principled person. I would say that those things probably will help them be not only more successful, but comfortable with themselves.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “I know now that they are going to be more inclined to put their recipes out. And I think it'll be fabulous. You should write your principles. You do cheer your principles in many ways. But as those recipes, and you give these recipe books and people then can compare one to another and debate them and operating at that principle level, I think, is a responsibility that I have to do and it kind of frees me up to go to my next stage of life.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “I'm at a stage in my life where my objective is no longer to be more successful myself. I'm in a transition. I'm 68 years old and I felt that my number one goal is to help people be successful without me and having this collection of recipes that it's been built up over that period of time and passing it along so that basically everything that I know is a value in the book frees me of that responsibility and is what I feel is a sense of responsibility. I hope everybody, I wish everybody would do the same. Like I'd love to know How many people's principles would you love to know? By the way, I've been speaking to a number of, I won't use the names, but a number of very successful people.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Wrong on one or here, it's okay, but that casino means all of my games on balance are going to pay off. And then that notion of systemizing the decision roles, these things have been very helpful to me.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Say something's going against you. And of course, trades will always go against you. It's not like you buy something, and from that point forward, it goes up. You then sell it, and I mean, it's not like that. And so if you buy something that's good value, it might go down before it goes up. And then when you're wrestling with, okay, now do I sell it? It's not like that's the moment either. So every moment, you don't know whether are you missing something or are you wrong or is it just too early? All of that psychology enters into it. And you start to think about multiple possibilities and then, you know, okay, there's more opportunity. That's why the strategies I'm describing, the combination of diversification so no one bet is going to matter so much. So I have the casino of bets. So yeah.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “It's just the algorithm, it's just an expression of my criteria. And then I put it into an algorithm. But by knowing how that algorithm works and having it operate next to me, in other words, I'm doing my decision making in my way. And then all my thinking is programmed into the computer so that there is a parallel decision making going on by the computer has been fabulous because that computer ain't got no emotions and it's just like, you know, I don't know, a computer chess game. And it's great. And it's been a fabulous experience to have me and it playing the game together. So to taking the emotions out of it is a real. Real plus. And I'm a meditator, so I can, you know, I would say I don't get. Emotional as some people do, but when you go through it because you go through a process in which you're thinking”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “All that worked for him psychology is a big deal. Psychology is a big deal in the markets. That's why I also find that my rule-based algorithmic type of trading, rule meaning I take a rule and decision rule. So it's not a”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “No, I've never done it because of stress. I've liquidated positions to take risk off the table because certain things have happened and I'd say, listen, I just don't know and I'd rather now take risk off the table. But I do know of one terrific investor who got into a very bad mindset. I mean, he just couldn't make anything work for a period of time. And that started to affect his psychology that worsened his decision making. And what he did was he brought his positions down to such a small level that he was continuing to play the game. But with amounts that wouldn't have that psychological effect until he could get back into that mindset and get back. Into the groove”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “That you're going to have a bed to sleep in. You're going to have food. You're going to have friends. The most basic good things. You're playing the game and it's the nature of the beast. So I guess that's like for me, I keep thinking, what are they going to take away from me? And what's it really going to mean?”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Well, I think of Like, how bad am I going to get hurt, kind of thing? And I almost think in portfolios sometimes, that it's better to take a portfolio when you have a certain amount of cash and you think, how bad am I going to get? And then you could take your risk and put it in another portfolio and separate the portfolios rather than to blend them together so that you're actually thinking, okay, how bad is it going to get? And also like, okay, so it's the nature of the beast. And what's the big deal? I mean... You're When it comes down to it, you're going to have What can they take away from you?”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Tied up, you can't go have the cash Go buy something that's going to balance it. And you wouldn't want to borrow and then borrow the cash to buy something different because probably its correlation with whatever you're using as a diversifier is not going to be reliable. And so you can really get screwed So I don't know that I have a good answer for that”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “I think are you saying if you have an 80% of your portfolio concentrated portfolio in the one particular asset? Would urge you to find out how you're going to hedge that thing. And there are different ways that you can make that hedge to some extent it's buy something, but to some extent you might go into a contract. It could be done almost, I don't know the nature of the particular types of investments, but if it's a particular company with a particular profile, that'll be unique to it, the only way that you're going to be able to hedge that is to go into some probably investment bank and actually explain to them their circumstances and find out a structure that they might be able to come across. It's going to be a highly impure hedge. And, you know, it needs to be engineered. So it's a very difficult thing. And because 80% of your net worth is...”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “My approach is, I was describing it, is to balance the risks based on the two factors that we were, the two determinants that we talked about before. How are the intrinsic drivers of those? And then also what are the timeless and universal correlations of those assets and to achieve balance. I'm always looking for a value-added risk-reducing trade. The issue is to look at the intrinsic characteristics and achieve balance.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “So you can't allow yourself to do that. That's the risk of ruin thing. So diversification, proper diversification can reduce your risk without reducing your return.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “Can allow an individual. I explained in that book, I thought, by the way, it's a great book because what Tony did was to take concepts and make them very clearly conveyed for the average reader. I explain, he interviewed me in the book, how to achieve that kind of balance so that you're not going to have that. Because if you lose 50 or 75% of your money in a decline, let's say 50%, that means you need 100% return to get back.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “Comparable expected returns other than the surprises that will take place in the future. And you have a choice. You're either going to be smart enough that you think you're going to bet against somebody else that they're going to go up or down, or you're going to diversify. So you can take these assets and achieve a level of balance with those assets that doesn't cost you in expected return, but provides you a much lower level of risk. And if you can reduce your risk, And keep your expected return the same, you got to do that. So diversification, as we were talking about before”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “Well, it goes back to the point I was making before that you can come up with a bunch of equally good investments. I mean, generally speaking, all investments are competing. And what that means is if one was clearly better than another, more money would go into it, bid up its price, and then it would be... Comparably according to the marketplace, and the marketplace is pretty smart. In order to be successful in being Tactical, you have to be better than the marketplace, and that isn't easy, therefore, the marketplace is pretty smart, that all of those assets are going to have, roughly speaking,”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. “Right and to know An ongoing basis that the market is made up of that mixture So, you know, as much as one can is a good way of getting a sense of that.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. “That when you examine it, you know, kind of makes sense. Somebody might be a stock may go public and then the owners have a window that they are, it's closed for them to sell it. Then the window opens up, and then they're going to sell at that time. I'm just giving you a whole bunch of examples that one can know or attempt to know that are more than just people wanting to make money. Somebody's squeezed. You have a financial squeeze and they need cash so that they're motivated to sell it because they need cash. There are lots of different reasons”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. “Because they'll get scared and they think it's a worse investment. Whereas a typical institutional bench, there are a pension fund will buy when it goes down because they have to rebalance their portfolio to keep an asset allocation mix at a certain level. And so if they're losing money in something and making something another, they will rebalance in a mechanical way. And so there are many different ways of knowing, of saying, okay, who are the biggest ones? Who are the littlest ones? But most importantly, the biggest ones. And what are they motivated to do? And by understanding it in that way, it's important. So you have a lot of different buyers and sellers in different markets for different reasons.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. “Every buyer has behavioral characteristics for certain reasons. So if you say, let's say stocks, to use a very simple example, a typical individual, maybe mutual fund buyer, will buy after something's gone up because they think it's a better investment and they'll sell, they'll get scared when it goes down.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. “In the case of cryptocurrencies right now, it's not a very practical medium of exchange yet. I mean, I have my bitcoins and I try to go spend them and it's not easy to go spend them And then when we think of it as a storehold of wealth, no, today it's primarily a speculative market. So it's somebody knowing its intrinsic value that you're going to be looking at. It's really thinking about who are the buyers, who are the sellers, and what they are likely to do and projecting that that's going to be the driver of investing in a cryptocurrency.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. “In the future, that's very different from something like value investing, which is something that says my lump sum payment today is this and the future cash flows over the next number of years will be this. So I'm very much, much more driven to the buying and selling. In terms of something like a cryptocurrency, first of all, I'm not an expert on the cryptocurrencies. I would think that what I'm describing is super important to get at because there are two purposes of a currency. Any currency is a medium of exchange or a storehold of wealth. When we think of dollars, we use it as a medium of exchange. Or if we're holding it as a bond, it's a payment over Period of time, and that's a storehold of wealth.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. “Well, everything I look at is I try to look at who are the buyers and sellers and what motivates them and what are they going to do. So I break it down, I analyze. Now, I wouldn't know, I don't know how I would do that in Bitcoin, and I don't know that it would apply to everything. But as a general theme, if you know who the buyers and sellers are and what their motivations are, how big they are, and so on, you can pretty much calculate, you can go a long way to understanding what the price is likely to do.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. “I did a thirty minute video called How the Economic Machine Works in which everything that I Know that it's of most value, describes in 30 minutes. It's on YouTube. I'd recommend that they go there in 30 minutes. They'll have most of what I think is valuable in understanding how it works. It's a pretty simple machine. It's like almost anything if you think about it. Most of the important things that are driving almost anything can be described pretty simply. So that's what I attempted to do in that video on YouTube. It's been downloaded five million times, and I mean, it's rated highly. So I think it's helpful.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. “So there will be an intrinsic reason that they will be correlated and there will be intrinsic reasons that drive their correlation. Let's say, if I'm getting too technical, please excuse me, but all of those investments are going to have the interest rate that we're using to calculate the present value in common. And therefore, that will drive a correlation between that, while the items that affect their cash flows could be different and that will drive then something that one can analyze and see that their correlations would be different from that attribute. If you break investments down and you look at what the causality is, it's better than if you're just looking at past numbers, but you could look at it either of those two ways, ideally both.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. “Because that's the subject. We can talk about a lot of other things. But anyway, if I'm talking about correlations of investments. Every investment is a lump sum cash payment now for an income stream in the future. If I buy a bond, I give a lump sum payment and they're going to give me so much per month all the way for whatever the length of the bond is, the majority over the 20 years or whatever that is. If I'm having a stock, it's a lump sum payment, and then we estimate what are the future cash flows. So there's uncertainty about those cash flows. But you will look at those cash flows. They will all be affected by the discount rate, the interest rate we use to calculate the present value”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  29. “Is that if I have a decision rule or equities or bonds or an asset class or something and I see its behavior, did it behave the same in the same drivers in another country and another country? So where the correlations, for example, between stocks and bonds in Spain, similar to the correlations between stocks and bonds in Brazil, similar to this correlation between stocks and bonds in the United States, okay, that'll give you more of a sense that the correlation between stocks and bonds is X. Then if you have just it happening in one place. So timeless and you Universal are just for most decisions rules that I look at. But at the end of the day, I get really more comfort by being able to understand the intrinsic determinants. So if I'm talking about investments.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. “So, because is it a number of years? And is it in a different environment? I have a rule in terms of most of my decision making. It has to be timeless and universal. So timeless means if I take a period of time where the correlations or that which I'm discovering true in all of those periods of time, so I like to go back a long time, but let's say you have a limited amount of data, that's a handicap. The more data you have, the better. But still, if I change the periods, in this year did that correlation, was it the same as the correlation in the prior year? And was the correlation the same in the year before that the correlation, let's say, of daily returns? Or you could have correlation. A minute returns so timeless and as far back as you go. And I like to deal with universal, what I mean by universal.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. “Okay, so it has to do with a combination of sample size and environmentally biases differences. In other words, How much sample size do you have? And is that over many years or did they have something in common that would affect them? So if I have many years And a large number of samples in that number of years, I can have a higher level of reliability if I'm just looking at the numbers than if I had a short-term period because correlations will change.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. “You know that those are intrinsically different things. And I think you can get a good sense of that by just even knowing what they are. So that particular startup will have a particular thing that will make it successful. I don't know what we could imagine it might be, but it might be having nothing to do with something else. Now I think of what are the fundamental determinants of the price movement. And you don't have to get so precise about it. I like to think it through probably in maybe an overly analytical way, but knowing that they're intrinsically different is good enough. And then now back to your question of the data set. It then becomes a I'm going to give you more complex answers than you probably want, but.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. “Well, I think there are two ways of determining the correlation that they're uncorrelated, and that is, are they in You referred to the first, but I think it's the worst. It still has value, which is how did they move together in the past? I think the more important is to understand, like, are they intrinsically different things? So, you know, if you were going to say, I'm going to invest in This Silicon Valley startup and timber in Colorado or something.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. “If I can find three people, I don't know, let's say it's a medical condition, but it could be any decision. If I can find three people who are excellent experts who will disagree with each other because they're committed to the right answer, and I can get triangulation. And also listen to their disagreements. I'm significantly raising my probabilities of being right. So there are techniques like that. Humility and triangulation of great people is an excellent way of raising one's probability of making a good decision.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. “Is incredibly important. So when you're thinking about it as a business, I think about it as basically a betting strategy in every one of the bets that I make. But if you're thinking about, let's say, your business is, if you can create good but uncorrelated things, that power of diversification is so much more valuable than trying to make any one bet much greater. So I think about diversification. And I also think that in terms of, let's say, bets, raising my probability of being right, one of the most important ways of raising my probability of being right is not being confident that I'm right and being able to go out there and gather the triangulation. So something for me is a technique is quality triangulation, basic.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. “That's the Holy Grail. So the Holy Grail is 15 good uncorrelated bets because if they're all equally good and expected return, in other words, let's say they were all going to have an expected return of 10% by way of example, then on average you won't lower your expected return because they're all on average about 10%. But in terms of the risk, you will eliminate 80% of the risk. So you improve your return to risk ratio by a factor of five. What I'm saying is that knowing... The value of uncorrelated bets.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  37. “If it is 60% correlated And you start with a particular level of risk. And you add in the second and third and fourth and fifth and a thousand different. Items to diversify yourself, you will only reduce your risk by about 15%, maybe a little bit more than 15% if they're correlated Do that with uncorrelated things. Uncorrelated bets. You at fifteen on correlated bets, you will reduce your risk by over eighty percent. So now the holy grail of investing, the thing that I learned, and that's the most important, is that if I can have 10 or 15, ideally 15, but even if it's $5, good uncorrelated bets.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  38. “Not learning. So to distinguish between when you say risk averse, be very risk prone in terms of being able to have the experiences that are the learning, risky experiences that even Some of the pains that allow the learning, but don't get knocked out of the game. And then I think of risk as, you know, how do you do that? How do I improve my return to risk ratio? And I know that the most important way that you can do that, there's a few ways, but one of the most important ways is knowing how to diversify one's bets without reducing one's returns. There are a bunch of things that are equally good, and you know how to take all those equally good things, but they're not correlated would mean that I could do a much better job just to give you an idea. Think of something as being correlated, like something like a bet, something we think of that as correlation, but you can almost think of it as a different kind of bet.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  39. “I think the most important thing is there's the risk of the ruin, risk of being knocked out of the game, risk of the unacceptable. And then there's risk of the painful mistake. And they're a world of difference. Like I have to know how not to die, not how to get knocked out of the game. That's an important risk. So thinking about all the different ways that that can happen and making sure all of those ways are covered is number one. And then there's the other kind of risk, which is take it, have the experiences. I guess maybe the example would be if I was saying skiing comes to mind. Don't kill yourself, but if you're not falling a lot and hurting yourself a lot, you're probably...”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  40. “We have 1,500 people who work at Bridgewater. How does that connectivity, that same kind of excitement and mission and togetherness that happened when we had Or 50, how is that maintained and what that's a new strategy? So you always won't always have these different problems and the various inflection points that lead one, the forks in the road that are the points that you're referring to, and they're the junctures you're referring to. So, I mean, they're just so many of them.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  41. “Not having any money, any resources, and then having to do things from myself. You're an entrepreneur, no money, no resources, and that having to do so. Buy the computer, rent the place, do all of that was one kind of challenge. And then you have the small team and you have those dreams and you work with them and it's fantastic, but you didn't have enough resources. And then you grow and you have the exact opposite things happening to you and they produce their own challenges. And you have too many people and you don't get to know each other as well as you did before, but you have plenty of resources, but you might have the challenge of how do you maintain that quality relationship with that larger group of people. And then one has to figure out how you may”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  42. “So that's it. And if you could know how to deal with that, that's a constant struggle. So the thing that we find is that very, very, very few people have a problem intellectually liking what's going on here. It's fair, it's honest, there's no politics. Anybody can In an ideal meritocratic way, it can argue their case. It's non-hierarchical. It's fantastic in all of those ways. The challenges that they have are then with their emotional you, reconciling with their intellectual you, and that's an ongoing challenge. All the time. So that's a theme, I would say, is a constant theme. Okay, well then twists and turns. At every phase in life, you have different Challenges. I mean,”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  43. “And that's basically the battle. That's the battle that almost everybody all the time is doing. So imagine how confusing it is. You have two Us within you that are battling with each other. And then somebody else you're dealing with has two within them. And so it can get difficult.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  44. “And you're not aware, actually, of the subliminal motion. That's why it was Freud's great discovery in that there's the subliminal that's really controlling you, but you're not in your consciousness. And there are those two U's, and they're often at odds. The example, the classic example would be, of course, something where you did something that you didn't want to do. You ate the cake that you didn't want to eat, but anyway where you punch somebody or something. And so there are these two U's that are in a battle for each other. And so what we've observed on a constant basis is that in addition to having Disagreements between people, we see that that emotional, subliminal them often can be in control of their more thoughtful them. And those are ongoing battles”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  45. “I'd like to start with the overarching challenge that is a constant challenge. And then we can go back to some of the actual various forks in the road. The overarching challenge is people's two themes. In other words, think about it in this way. There are two U's inside you. There is the thoughtful you. Prefrontal cortex type of thoughtful you. And then there's the subliminal emotional you.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  46. “That's one of the most misunderstood, so I'm glad you asked me because it's clear that many things are symptomatic. Little things are symptomatic of bigger things. So under that principle, it explains like if somebody's behaving in a certain way and you think, well, that's not a big thing, but you don't understand. Why somebody would do that. It may be symptomatic of. Bigger thing. So when you start to, you know, almost I might say pull every thread as you start to pull the threads you start to see the connections because you're trying to get at what's everything symptomatic of so that's what you're really trying to get is it is that what is the person like what is that situation like why would it manifest itself that way so It's a probably a principle that I throws people off and I probably haven't articulated very well.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  47. “Well, I think the real driver of it is when there's a difference of opinions to do you have a real curiosity to understand why? I mean, it's really through the, you know, Fear of being wrong. Combined with the curiosity of wondering why somebody would have another opinion. And that becomes the motivator. And so you kind of ask why. And you think, does that make sense? And then come back with other questions. I would say, I think most people. Are too often they start with opinion. There's psychological tests that show that people start with an opinion and filter information that comes to them to be consistent with their opin”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  48. “I mean, that's the big thing. The only two things you need to do in life in order to be successful. First, you need to know what the best decisions are. And second, you have to have the courage to make them, to do what's necessary. And on the first, the greatest problem is that people... Just look inside their heads with for their opinions where they can. Really get rid of the bad ones and take the best that they can get elsewhere. And by doing that, by exploring different people's views, not just their conclusions, but the reasoning behind their conclusions, they can learn such a tremendous amount. We talk about books. Well, conversations are much better than books. So you can have those conversations and learn when people have differences and just pick the best opinions, right? Isn't that sensible?”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  49. “I mean, yeah, I mean, All you want is the right answer, right? And there's such a bias to think that just because you have an opinion, that it's valuable or that the... So stuck with it. I mean, that's really stupid. Right? I mean, it's like in everything you just want the right opinion wherever it's going to come from. So if you gain humility, I believe that one of the greatest tragedies of mankind Individuals Is to hold wrong opinions in their head that so easily could be stress tested to find out if they're right or wrong. If you can sort of give that up and think, how do I know I'm right? You're going to significantly raise the probabilities of making better decisions.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  50. “Just really puts things in perspective. Again, I would say Joseph Campbell's hero of a thousand faces, those would be the three books that I would say that would be the combination. And the beauty of, you know, particularly two of those books is it's not going to take long to read them. Hero of a thousand faces a little bit dense, but it's so rich. It's a good one.”

    2017-09-13 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT