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Ray Ozzie

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2024-10-01
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2024-10-01
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  1. It's not supposed to go into that realm, but they gather that data and they sell it to the dealers and they have part of their value proposition and their business model has changed over time as independent from the modem that gives you a Wi-Fi hotspot or that refreshes the maps. John Deere, they've gotten a lot of negative press in the past years because building essentially closed systems that have caused many farmers to rebel because it's really transformed the nature of farming. But in essence, they were innovators in instrumenting farm machinery with location, with things related to the preventative maintenance of the vehicles. It's really transformed in many ways the production of food. And those are big companies.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Cyber physical systems with putting communications technology and IoT technology into physical devices in cars it began with OnStar. Some of your listeners may remember this. You press a button and suddenly people would know where you are. And this was a very fancy technology in the early days, but increasingly, generation after generation, it turned into more. It became integrated with the maintenance value proposition of cars. It became integrated with the entertainment value proposition of cars. Many people aren't even aware of this, but many cars have two modems in them now. One is paid for completely subsidized by auto manufacturers, and they get engine performance data. They monitor the performance of the vehicle.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Computer revolution helped everyone and the spreadsheet, especially became an empowering tool by which everyone enjoyed the benefits of that technology. With regard to physical devices, we have been in a situation since probably the early 2000s where the largest companies, the automotives and John Deere began experimenting with

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. All manufacturing firms. By revenue, it's probably 35 to 40 percent. Even earlier in my career, if you look at the world of tech, there's big tech and there is the rest. And there are a lot of companies in the rest. And if you look at just anything like spreadsheets or email or any kind of communication tools, there was a phase computing, just simply computing. At first, the largest corporations were able to afford getting mainframe computers. And then over time, companies like DEC and data general and prime brought computing down into the super mini computer and mini computer size realm, which enabled more and more companies of different sizes to get access to it. Eventually the personal

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Me just step back and lay out a little bit of background here what excites me as a technologist that's been in the industry for a long time is not so much just technology for technology's sake or specific use cases. I get really excited by broad, broad, broad use of a technology by the masses. And when I say the masses, what people generally think of is consumers. But what I really mean is that there are an extremely large number of small to medium-sized enterprises globally. If you think about small businesses, even just

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. We would offer note cards with different radio access technologies, different types of cellular, GSM, LTE, you know, 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, those note cards, or Laura or a satellite. The little note card would have on it the SIM, the secure element. It would have flash memory so that it could do buffering of data coming from the host MCU. It would be protocol agile so that the person doing the host MCU wouldn't have to worry about either security or how to encode the bits and bytes to get them efficiently to the cloud. And that essentially it would just work so that the person could worry about their use case and worry about the cloud service that they're trying to do. And we would take care of Everything in the middle.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. The Wi Fi network, you don't have to build your own tower network like you do with something like Laura or Wi-Fi where you have to install your own gateways. It's already done for us. However, in order to use cellular, you have to get your device certified by carriers so that it doesn't abuse whether intentionally or mistakenly the shared resource of the cellular network. So all of these things stack up. And so my concept in doing blues was that we would create a fused hardware, software service offering. The hardware offering is called the note card. The service offering is called the note hub. But essentially, the hardware manufacturer would design their product. They would put the note card in it.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. A challenge putting hardware secure elements onto a device is a challenge. So anyway, these things stack up. And then when it comes time to actually have a service that transmits, cellular is the most powerful technology, in my opinion, that's out there because it's one of the few technologies where in order to do cellular, you've already got a secure element on the device to do digital identity. We call them SIMs, SIM cards or SIM chips. You can put cellular into a device and most everywhere on Earth that there are people, not so much rural, there may be coverage problems, but most places where there are people, there is some sort of cellular coverage and you don't have to configure it like you have to do.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Those protocols may vary. Sending something over satellite, you want it to be very small and you want it to be packet oriented. There is a protocol stack. If you want to do it securely, you have to in modern cloud-based systems, you want to have digital identity in some way, shape, or form. So how are you going to get digital certificates loaded onto those devices? This is an extremely challenging thing, especially if you're not familiar with that domain. People are very familiar with certificates and digital identity in web browsers. Everyone uses SSL or TLS to secure connections. How are you going to get the root certificates and certificates in general digital identities onto devices? So this is.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Generators and so on, and they want to focus on that use case. They just want to get the data to the cloud at the lowest level. There is hardware because it's a physical device. And so today, because the hardware industry tends to have evolved as a component industry, the components that are involved are things like modems. Modem is a modulator demodulator. It's a thing that encodes data for transmission, either on a wire or on a wireless network. In order to power a modem, it takes energy. So there is a power supply involved. If you are going to send data to somewhere, you need a protocol stack to encode the data that goes over the wire over the air. And depending on the type of radio.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. So success, let's just keep in mind what success is. Success at the highest level is to enable companies of any size, either to build physical products from scratch or to transform existing physical products into data-driven intelligence services. People want to understand the nature of devices generally for two reasons, either to do preventative maintenance, meaning understand whether those things are operating correctly, anticipate their failures and so on, or to improve the customer experience. There's something about the product whose experience could be better if you service enable it. The customer environment is that we want people to be able to focus on their use case. They are professionals in some domain. They might manufacture refrigerators, manufacturer.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. People may have heard of That a number of those customers were using for their cloud services. I called them up and I said, Aren't you guys connecting devices, IoT devices to the cloud, whether AWS or Azure? And what I found was a litany of failed projects, enterprises who had started prototyping getting physical devices connected to the cloud, generally using Wi-Fi. And the prototypes were very easy to build. But over time, they learned of the challenges that Wi-Fi doesn't work for commercial products. And then when they tried to use cellular, they had similar challenges to what we ran into, dealing with carriers to get the appropriate data plans was not right, getting devices certified was difficult. So I started a company, Blues, to try to make that easier.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Was not professional grade. I had just come from Microsoft and whether it was at IBM before that or Microsoft, I had many friends and colleagues who built systems for large enterprises. I built a system that called Azure that.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. And we're using Belena operating in a distributed operating environment to manage the gateways and to then bring it to our cloud-based service. And then over time, when the cellular networks came back up, we actually hadn't fully designed the device yet. So we made them both Laura and cellular capable. It was extreme devices working. There are still many of these devices that if you go to the Safecast map, you'll see are still broadcasting those radiation levels. But I felt that it was just too difficult. And I had not even gotten into the security aspects of it, the devices that we developed for Safecast. It was all out in the open, the identity of the device is very crude. It was just simple identifiers that we assigned into them.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. They called the ISM band in the US, but industrial scientific and medical band. But it's an unlicensed band Wi-Fi where anybody can use that band, but depending on the encoding, it can be used for very long range or very deep penetration. They're both very useful. And Laura is a proprietary technology from a company called Semtech that wraps a little modem that encodes and decodes that technology for use by little IoT apps. In our case at Safecast, we use Arduino as the operating environment and IDE for the MCU. And we would package up and compress and send that data in little 200 byte packets up to the hills where they then went into a Raspberry Pi gateway.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Physical, it was just tough. And I learned by trying to build this thing over many months that it shouldn't be this hard. I've been in technology for many years and things really only take off when they are made easy enough that essentially people can focus on their use cases instead of all the technology elements. In this particular case, the first device we built was called the solar cast. It would measure radiation and air quality level and transport backhaul that data over Laura and then up in the hills surrounding the exclusion zone. We built little Laura gateways. Laura is a, I believe the acronym is from Long Range, but it's radio technology, very low bandwidth that operates in the 900 megahertz IS.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. How much energy was in the battery? What the charge rates are going to be looking, doing moving averages of charge rates over periods of time so you could understand if you were an extended cloudy period cranking down the sampling rates and so on. But it was also very challenging building low power hardware. I had never developed low power hardware and this is microamp level, not nanoamp, but certainly not milliamp level draws building the entire system so that it would conserve power. And furthermore, it was building an enclosure that would withstand the elements and survive with one visit per year. We only had one opportunity to visit these devices. So between the radio access technology challenge, given that there was no cellular and the energy management and the

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  18. Yeah, well, yeah, I learned why it could be hard. I mean, to a professional software engineer who was fairly straightforward, I mean, it's just building state machines, understanding.

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  19. Were great community people who reached out to the residents and so on. But I would say it was mostly the number of professionals, deep professionals in software, in firmware and hardware was less than the number of well-intentioned amateurs. That group, while passionate, had a really difficult time getting this autonomous solar-powered thing going. It was a little bit more difficult of a challenge both at the hardware and firmware level. So I thought, how hard can this be? And I had started back in the 70s as a EE and I learned software over time. I thought, how hard can this be? So I got my hands dirty.

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  20. The second generation of devices were a little bit different. We had the opportunity to get deeply into the exclusion zone where the radiation levels were extremely high. The way that we got in there was interesting. The residents of Japan who had been relocated afforded the opportunity to visit their homes once a year. And so we were able to get equipment deep into the exclusion zone. However, at the time we were first deploying, there was no power, there was no cellular, actually, at the first time. And so backhauling the data was extremely challenging, as was power management. Now, this group of volunteers that were working on these devices, it was a mix of hardware packers, software hackers, some people who had cloud expertise at the time, many people who

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  21. New ways of doing this. But in essence, the challenge that I started seeing at Fukushima was that the initial devices that we used were essentially battery-powered for short term drives in cars. The most we were ever measuring was four hours, six hours, something like that. Batteries are fine. They were standalone in that. They recorded to SD cards.

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  22. Of the data. And of course, yes, finding the right balance of putting edge inference into the machine itself or potentially uploading the data raw and doing the inference up in the cloud, sometimes it's appropriate to do detection and alerts on the device. Sometimes not. Intelligent machines also have to manage their energy, much as we do. If it's tethered, if it's plugged in, it's got an ample supply of energy. If it's remote in the environment, it's going to have to use some sort of energy harvesting. There is solar, of course, and wind, but there's also harvesting new technologies for harvesting wireless, grabbing broadcast waves over the air, and grabbing a little bit of energy off those waves and using charge pumps to store it. There are all sorts of

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  23. We tend now because everyone's talking about AI LLMs, and so on, we tend to focus on the word intelligent. But in reality, it means, as I said, number one, the fusion between the cloud and the machine. It is very difficult to imagine these days and moving forward a standalone machine. Pretty much everything now takes advantage of the fact that we have got ubiquitous networking. And so connecting intelligent machines, of course, means connected machines, machines that generate data, machines that are secure so that they are not subject to attack and take over machines that as appropriate encode their data confidentially, machines that have strong identities so that we understand the provenance.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Metal sensors at the time were not that inexpensive, but you have to ask yourself the question if the water quality infrastructure, if the water distribution infrastructure had been monitored, would we have discovered certain things earlier? Streams today, the soil, the air quality, even sound levels within urban areas, there's really no reason at this point in history anymore why we shouldn't be broadly monitoring the earth and listening to what it has to say to us.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. Upon differently by people who were not from the regions that were more heavily irradiated, people lost their jobs. And so there were many, many, many impacts. But stepping way back, what that experience taught me was the importance of environmental data, the importance of having baseline environmental data when there is no issue, the importance of using commercial off-the-shelf inexpensive sensors so that we can know more about our environment, so we can be more in touch with our environment, so we can understand what is anomalous. If you go back to Flint, Michigan, and look at what happened with water quality there, who would have thought that probably, I mean, it was heavy.

    2024-10-01 · Invest Like the Best · Ray Ozzie - The Future of Intelligent Machines - [Invest Like the Best, EP.391] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. This ended up being a very, very useful data set. This isn't just data for data's sake. You can see, if you look at the maps today, you can see where the plume went. It went slightly northwest of the plants. You can actually see that unfortunately some people were probably relocated from places that were more safe to places that were less safe if we had known at the time, in the days following it where that radiation was going. Now the levels were not life-threatening. The most life-threatening aspect of Fukushima ended up being the worry and the concern and the stress that it put on people and the way that it broke up families because unusual culturally, but the people who were from the region were looked down.

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  27. Every five seconds and correlate load initially onto an SD card, a log that would log, correlate time GPS location and radiation level, gamma. And if you go to safecast.org and click maps and explore, what you'll see is that Safecast today is the world's largest open radiation data set that exists. Certainly every road in Japan, but also many, many, many other places globally. And there's a time access also because essentially over the many years that we've been measuring radiation, we've measured the same place many times. And so you can actually look at the levels and see where they've decreased, where the radioactivity has gone into the soil. And so on.

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  28. Mechanisms by which the body absorbs or interacts with radiation, but that wasn't our primary job. We thought if we could competently measure the radiation and publish it, then people who were experts could look at it and make their own assessments. And so we very quickly, within a few days, put together a prototype with a laptop and a commercial Geiger counter, some GPS hardware that we got at Akihabra, strapped it onto a car, and just started driving around Japan into the exclusion zone as close as we could and very rapidly began to generate a very high quality map of the various radiation levels for the technologists who are listening, essentially the nature of the device was that it would measure

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  29. A digital garage in Tokyo just to see what the talk about, what could we do, the task just within a day or two, it became clear that the most useful thing that we could do would be to find a way to measure radiation extensively on the ground and to publish that on the net. There were a couple of people who were scientists who were competent enough to understand.

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  30. TEPCO, the power company, and the Japanese government frankly had their hands full dealing with the event, their top priority was not reporting data so that people around the world could see it. And the government was beginning to do relocations of people from place to place. And this just made people more nervous. Are we being relocated to the right place? Who should be relocated? Is it going to reach Tokyo? These were just all questions people had. And so I believe probably within three or four days of the meltdowns, whether it was by email or messages or other mechanisms, many people in tech tried to say, what can we do to help? And so I think it was the first week of April, which was a couple weeks after the event, about 30 of us flew to Tokyo and just met.

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  31. Absolutely. Well, I had just left Microsoft at the beginning of 2011. I had a little bit of time in my hands. And what happened in March of 2011 is something many people remember. There was a tsunami that hit Japan and that took out Fukushima nuclear plants and a few of them melted down. People were terrified in Japan. People around the world were worried after Chernobyl there were plumes that went over many parts of Europe when Fukushima happened. Clearly there was a plume that radiation was released. However, the location of that plume, where it flowed because of the prevailing winds, the degree to which debris was still pouring out of the reactors themselves, it was all a mystery because

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  32. In the cloud, there's kind of a fusion between the devices in cloud and the devices and devices and how that fusion happens varies based on the cost parameters of the device, what the use case is, and so on.

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  33. Increase the tempo of its uploading, and it will notify the devices in the geographic region surrounding it to also increase their sampling rates to give the most relevant data balancing the energy usage and not the people in the academic side call this swarm intelligence. It's a fancy world. You can think of it as collaborative machine intelligence, but it's machines operating in networks among themselves to do intelligent things. And this is a very specific application of that type of thing. But the reason that I started blues is because I believe that ultimately all physical devices are going to become intelligent machines where that intelligence is in some mix on the devices.

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  34. Worried whether it's will Chernobyl come under attack again. It was one of the earliest things that was taken, that it was taken back by Ukraine. If the power infrastructure is damaged around Zaporizhia, will it cause the spent fuel cooling systems to fail? Will there be radiation leaks or will there be a nuclear device detonated? People are just concerned. And so the way that the RAD note works, this device, is that because it is solar powered, it moderates how often it samples or how often it uploads. So let's say that perhaps by default it might upload once a day or once every 12 hours a large number of samples. Well, if one of the devices happens to report a higher radiation level, it will

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  35. The reason it's essential both to the citizens and to the government is that the power infrastructure is under attack and there is an extensive radiation monitoring network throughout Europe, throughout the world. But when the power infrastructure is taken out, most of those things go offline. And having a backup is very important in the Ukraine. I'm sure many of your listeners understand that Ukraine is where Chernobyl is, but it's also the home to Zaporizhia, which is the largest nuclear plant in the Ukraine. And it has been taken by the Russians, and it's being used by Russia as a launching point for missiles and drones because they know that no sane military would attack back a nuclear power plant. And so the citizens are fairly

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  36. It's both solar powered and it's got a primary battery in case for some reason the person mounting it is under duress and they don't have time to sight it the right way. It'll last up to 10 years on a primary battery at a lower sampling rate. But essentially it measures periodically the radiation levels. It reports those radiation levels to the cloud. the newer generation of it that we're working on if it can't get at the cellular network, which it uses for backhaul, it will use satellite to backhaul at a lower frequency so that there's less data. The device dynamically adapts its sampling rate based on the amount of available energy and the communications radio access technology in the Ukraine. We're working with a nonprofit over there who had approached Safecast to get these installed.

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  37. Sure, Patrick. In a minute, I'll go back to. Its core businesses essentially enabling anybody who has a physical product to turn that into a data-driven intelligence service, very, very easily and quickly so that they can think about the product that they're trying to develop and not the difficulties and challenges of the technology backhauling data and so on. And one of the devices that we have worked with a nonprofit safecast to build is called RabNote. And it's essentially a standalone autonomous radiation detector, a Geiger counter wrapped in some communication and power management gear. And essentially it's super easy to install the person who installs it just turns on the power and mounts it on a pole or a tree somewhere and it's solar powered. It is disconnected from the power.

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  38. Friend or foe who are monitoring these channels, but it's really a very intense environment. And they're also having to deal with energy related issues. The power infrastructure is what's under attack the most right now for the broadest part of Ukraine. And so people are having to deal with systems that are tethered to power going out from time to time. Interestingly, at the current time, the cellular network is pretty reliable. I suspect because it's in both sides' interest to keep it up and running, but that's also a potential vulnerability.

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  39. Machines, but there have been small startups that have formed that have covered a variety of technologies. One of them being the use of decentralized audio monitoring, whether through dedicated devices or even one startup has done it through phones, cheap Android phones that they put out there. And they listen. They use machine learning to train them to listen for the specific sounds of certain drones and certain missiles and they correlate the trajectory and project the most likely impact points, a combination of bots and people publish on Telegram where these things might be going. They don't really buy the rules of engagement. They don't really talk about the impact or not because you don't really know who's watching it, whether it's

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  40. There's a lot going on over there. And if you take the time and interest to read, essentially, even though it's a horrible situation right now, it is essentially a proving ground for a term that I will refer to repeatedly, which is intelligent machines, intelligence, cyber physical systems, the use of AI and machine learning as it pertains to machines, low cost drone manufacturing. The reason I was over there was because of radiation monitoring and the use of technology that we're working on throughout Ukraine. However, technology is being used both for offensive and defensive uses. I think everyone's pretty familiar with how Starlink has been essential to getting network connectivity in the field, both among the people and among the people.

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  41. So immersed in what was going on. We read about what's happening in Ukraine from afar, but it's a bit different when you're there when these things are happening around you, when the infrastructure is being attacked, when the power is going out and you're hearing stories from everyone that you meet about their families, about their extended families, about their friends. It's just intense.

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  42. Hello, Patrick. This was just a few months ago. I was in Ukraine and actually probably on a relative basis the safest place I could be in Ukraine, which is Kiev. And I was there with a few volunteers from Safecast, which is a nonprofit I'm involved in. And I was actually also there with my son, who works for my company Blues. And it was the middle of the night. We're sitting there. I'm alternating back and forth between Telegram and an air alert app and messages on my phone and my wife is like, I don't understand why you had to be there. Why did you have to go? This isn't going to end well. And it was relatively peaceful, but there were air raid sirens on the outside from what I could see. There was nothing happening in my immediate vicinity. Was just

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