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Reid Hoffman

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2024-12-16
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2024-12-16
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  1. Because the soft assets are what compound generally to the much larger. Like the fact that you took a job with a 30% higher salary is not necessarily the predictor that you're going to get the job with a 300% higher salary. It's the soft assets that are likely to get to the 300% economic outcomes.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Well, this is part of what we did in Sarvieu, soft assets are very important. People underprioritize them. They tend to say, oh, I should take the job that offers me a 5% higher salary. And the answer is almost always, that's not the criteria

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. It can be, but it's very hard. It's kind of like a nuclear bomb kind of thing. I mean, it's like one particular person on you may have a real difference of opinion. You know, you may move and then a lot. Fired, and a lot of your network is that. But by the way, even if you gotten fired, if you've got a couple people at that company that you had good relationship with, they may still be part of your network.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. And that can be take big, some people say, I want to take as few big risks as possible in my whole life because that's who I am. Fine. But go establish yourself first. Now if you're going to be on entrepreneur, then like, for example, okay, maybe you shouldn't start a business at 18, but maybe you should go join a startup. Start learning it, start building the network. And it's roughly build the network is the broad thing. And by the way, build the skills and get, like, frequently doing a startup is very difficult economically. Usually you start with no salary, et cetera, like having some reserves is a good thing to have.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Yeah, take the big risk early, right? Now, you might say, I want to be a doctor. It's not particular because it's fine. But then go to medical school, establish yourself as a medical professional and so forth before you do that. So whatever thing that is the thing that you think gives you the platform for resilience in your later life, go establish that now. And by the way, that's part of the thing of like wealthy. But wealthy, by the way, could be measured in I have a bank balance, right, or on stock equity portfolio, but wealthy can also be the, I have a great network of people who want to work with me, who want to hire me, who value my talents. So this whole range for things, but go establish that.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. So Part of the reason I wrote Startup Review was that the advice that universities frequently give is follow your passion. First do the things you're really passionate about. Oh, you want to go volunteer in Bhutan. Do it now tends to be. And it's terrible advice. That actually is the wrong end for the advice. The right thing, and it doesn't mean don't follow your passion, but the right thing is to start with, how do I get to a place where I have established myself and have like the ability to like economically the platform and maneuver. It could be enough wealth to be no longer need a salary. That was my own personal goal. But it also could be the I'm well known, I have a network of contacts of people who would want to hire me and so forth. And now I'm going to go spend a year volunteering in Bhutan because I really want to do that. So the answer is go be vigorous about the thing.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. Well, it depends on how they respond to the trauma. Right? What did you learn from it? Like, how did you respond to it? Because generally speaking, you need to be able to convert negatives into positives on the entrepreneurial journey. So it's like, look, that was really bad. And I learned from it.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. Ah yeah, because then if they've gone through the difficult things and they've been resilient in there, that's likely not a hundred percent. That gives a good probability they'll be resilient in the future.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. Well, it's kind of like so you push them on things and see what they've done. Have they taken risk? How do they respond to risk? Are they trying to persuade themselves that the thing that they're doing is zero risk? No, no, I'm guaranteed to succeed. No one is.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. When I started social at, one of my connections to Apple. Drop me who had started doing startups two years before dropped me a one-line email that said, welcome to where fifteen minutes is the difference between exaltation and terror. I'm going to change the world. Oh shit, I'm going to die. So resilience is super important because it is a dog fight. And multiple times, PayPal, LinkedIn, Airbnb, oh God, we're going to die. This is going to be worth zero.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. Resilience officer, but almost every startup goes through what I call a valley of the shadow moment, which is like, why did we think this was a good idea? Oh my God, like when.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. Because only hire people who are going to hire world class people who play it. Now, similarly, like who are the world-class people who think you're world class is an entrepreneur? And like, this is one of the things that actually entrepreneur first, that we actually, in fact, learned was it isn't necessarily who everybody thinks, it's who some world class people think that this person world class because you're edgy. So you look for that. It isn't that you look for people that everybody loves them. Everybody says, oh, I'd love to have a drink with that person. No, no, no. Like having someone and say, oh, that person's hard driving. They're difficult. That could be a very strong positive. I've invested a number of entrepreneurs that way.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. insanely great ambition, right? I'm shooting for the moon. If I'm successful, I will transform the industry. An awareness of the Like a good plan for how you might do that, right? An awareness that entrepreneurship's a team sport, not an individual sport, and I have a plan for how I'm bringing in all of different elements, capital, talent, et cetera. Like, for example, one of the ways that I interview executives is I say, who are the three to five, the five, I love it, but minimum three world-class people who've worked for you before? And I'm going to call them and ask them what it's like working for you. And by the way, if it really matters, I will then reference check those three people on are they actually world class.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. Story, animals, exactly. So, yes, you need it. But of course, it's much better if it happens to be that you actually are trying to do that. You are actually, in fact, you have a good plan for how you might succeed in doing that.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. Well, it's helpful. The reason why people use the BS is because that's what people want to do. People want to be in things changing the world. So you have to say, like, I'm LinkedIn. This is how I'm going to change the world. I'm open AI. This is how I'm going to change the world. I married maybe B. This is how I'm going to change the world

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. Awesome. There are bullshit missions that are like the, I'm just telling a story. I don't really care, right? I'm telling a story that's incorrect, right? There are the Silicon Valley TV show on HBO kind of satired this in a particular way. It's like, I am creating a reverse double encryption system to change the world. And yeah, there is BS there, just like any other.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. All I care about is making money. The only thing that matters is I'm selling something. I'm going to make money. That's all that matters.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. because it is a team sport it requires high talent people around you doing it now for example you can get enough initial success going in capital that even though you're bad with your team people will come on board because they'll go oh i believe this is going to go somewhere and i can make a bunch of money doing it i'll come do it and so like for example a classic trope within silicon valley which is broadly correct and that's part of the reason you have the trope says i want missionary not mercenary cultures right because the missionaries i believe we're going to change the world we're going to do it this way and by the way mostly of the big successful companies most of them are missionary cultures they say they're all missionary cultures no no there's mercenary cultures that have gotten big too i'm not

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. I don't think politeness and etiquette are really particularly good competitive advantages. I'm not saying the one should be rude, but like an emphasis, like if an entrepreneur is like, I'm reading my etiquette manual. It's like don't spend your time with like, sure, be nice. I think building a network, like entrepreneurship is a team sport.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. Almost always critical because you need that initial team. Now you don't need networking of I should spend 12 hours a day, seven days a week, going to every party that I can possibly go of and shaking people's hand and giving my business card. That's not particularly useful. But what you need to be is just like you have a strategy for your business, you need to have a strategy for how you're building your network around your business and your network around you. Like who are the people that I should be talking to? Who are the people that I should be learning from? Who are the people that I should be trying to bring into my network that I have the project that I'm creating? And how do I meet those people?

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. And I passed on a lot of AI investments. But the thing that people need to understand about AI is it's a transformation to scale computing learning systems. So as opposed to we program it, like we program the AI, we program a scale computing learning system so it learns. And that only becomes available once you have scale compute. So you need the internet, you need the cloud, you need massive data centers, and you need access to massive amounts of data, which you get from the internet and other things. And then you need a scale team to build it.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. So Sam Alton, Greg Brockman, Ilya Suskeffer Amazing, and they had a focused bold vision, which is yes, Google has invented the baseline of the attention based transformer, but they don't realize that it's just scale. Like apply scale to this. We are going to bet the entire company, everything we're doing on scale on it, and we're going to be very focused on doing it. That's great.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. Okay, yeah, no, no, speed matters. Speed matters in startups. But by the way, because we tend to so much lionize what is usually the man versus the person, most of these people are men, the individual. Startups succeed because they're initial team. That's part of the hiring point we were talking about earlier. And so generally speaking, you ask me would I rather invest in an individual founder or two to three co-founders, I'd rather invest in two to three co-founders. So going and finding a co-founder is a great thing. Because by the way, your throw weight, your capability weight is so much better when you do that. And so, you know, Mark Zuckerberg had Dustin Muscovitz, Adam D'Angelo, right? You know, Chris Hughes. That's a really important part of how things get created.

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  24. Well, then generally speaking, like you can't do a technology, it's very hard to do a technology startup without a technology co-founder. So then go find a technology co-founder.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. Start using it, start billing it. If you want to, if you can, if you're technical, download an open source model, Lama, Mistraw, other, start playing with it.

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  26. Should you go try to build your own frontier model, which is a $10 billion computer? That's a hard amount of capital for startups. No, no, no. Try to figure out the degree you use frontier models from open AI or Microsoft or Google or others as ways of doing this. But you still may build your own model, right? Lots of startup companies are building their own models. I invested in this customer service company called Sierra that Brett Taylor is doing. And their thing is we're not building our own models. We're just deploying other models. So we have best of breed for what models are available to us. You could do that as an AI startup. There's a whole range. And part of what I love about entrepreneurship and invention is like I have a whole set of theories about what kinds of things will be really big and some of my theories will be right. And I've also discovered some other people who have amazing theories. And that's one of the things I really and we at Greylock love.

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  27. It's in the cloud. And of course, it bounces back and forth a little bit. Then you have, well, no, actually, in fact, you've got this really great app on your phone and so forth. But these kinds of things, AI is the next one that affects all of them. So you have greenfield, you have potentially revolutionized any particular place where there's a product or service, especially that intelligence could be added to it. There's a possibility of a great startup idea there. So yes.

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  28. It opens up massive amounts of entrepreneurial space because one is all the new things that can be built that were never possible before. Airbnb couldn't be done before the internet. There's just no way. So it opens up these things that weren't possible before. And so like the internet's a good proxy to the wave we have now with AI. Then it also, by the way, makes a massive transformative force on all existing businesses. So you say, well, I had a business of selling, you know, kind of e-commerce and doing, you know, mail order catalogs. Well, now there's e-commerce. So it transforms all of these businesses. And so by the way, for example, the internet is part of what makes the cloud revolution. So now it's like, well, actually, in fact, it's not software on your desktop. It's not software on your phone.

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  29. Yes, bing the chips, yes. So now really it's much more software valley. It's like we invest billions and billions of dollars every year into new software companies. So we went from silicon through networking equipment like Cisco getting to where we are now. AI is the new one. By the way, we did the thing with internet. We did it with mobile phones. We did it with Web2. Now it's AI. And so, you know, the principal thing is when you get this new general purpose technology,

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. Yes So, one of the things that Silicon Valley has built itself up of multiple, the reason it's called Silicon Valley is because it started with Silicon, right? It's now Software Valley. Silicon Valley almost never invests in Silicon anymore.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. How would a historian of technology analyze my argument? How would they criticize my argument? And then you get it. So you can get to like, it's literally, it's only your own creativity and your own inspiration of what role should I be talking to. And once you start realizing that you can start using AI very powerfully for whatever you're trying to do

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. A capable argument against your position. That is very helpful. It's helpful for cognitive development. It's helpful for learning. It's helpful for our understanding. One of the strengths and weaknesses. But by the way, you can also say, take my side. Give me another argument for the thing I'm arguing for. Like make that argument. But that's just the beginning. You can also say, like, for example, if I go, okay, I'm making this argument for how general purpose technologies always have initial strong fear by people and how they're described as the end of society, the end of humanity, et cetera. It's happened a number of different times.

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  33. You can use it for things that you care about today, so go start playing with it. And I love Ethan Mollick's line, which is the worst AI you're ever going to use in your life is the AI you're using today. So one of the reasons to start using it is to start getting familiar with it because it is a stunning tool. And I'll give one, since you're talking about everyday people, I'll give one kind of tip that I give everybody at the beginning. It's part of the reason I wrote impromptu, et cetera, which is what is AI? AI is great at adopting a role that you tell it to adopt, right? So here's a very simple one. You have an argument for something. You can paste it into an AI and you can say, counter this argument. Take the role of critic. Argue against me. And you can see it will immediately give you.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. Right, you know, and it's best when the idea is something you haven't thought of and few other people have thought of too is a way of doing it. So it got it completely wrong from how I, how Reid Hoffman, how I invest in AI and what I do very successfully. Now, you said, well, then it's useless for venture capital. It's like, no, no, because I kept experimenting with it. And I said, okay, I fit in an entrepreneur's plan. And I said, how would I do due diligence on this plan? And it came back with a pretty good list. Was like, yeah, yeah. One, I was absolutely planning on doing that. Two, I was absolutely three. Yeah, I could see why you'd think that I was doing it. That's not important. Oh, four, I would have gotten to it, but it would have gotten to it like four days down the road of doing the work. And now I know it now. So it's useful there. So it is today useful to everybody.

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  35. Some of the things still not useful for at all. Like when I sat down to ask GBD4, how would Reed Hoffman make money investing in AI? It gave me an answer that was the smart business school professor's answer who didn't understand venture capital. It was like, well, study which areas have the largest total addressable market, then look at what the possibilities for competitive disruption are, then market research test that. It's like go find a great entrepreneur with a great idea.

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. The basic answer is absolutely yes, and it's part of the reason why, like I do my podcast possible, I do super agency, I do impromptu, because the strong advice I give everyone, and literally I was sitting with a governors of the Bank of England yesterday, and my advice to them, among other things, was personally go use AI, right? Don't just use it to make a sonnet for your kids' birthday. That's great. Don't just use it for a recipe for what happens to be in your refrigerator.

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  37. So that's new, the cognitive superpowers are new. The fact that the speed of deployment is going to be unusual because now we have the mobile phone internet. So I create a new agent and tomorrow a billion people can use it. That's new, right? So all of these things are new. And by the way, new is anxiety producing and new is difficult to navigate. And new can make transitions very difficult. But by the way, the fact that we're facing a new challenge is not itself a new challenge. Right, for the average person

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  38. About why that is. It's not just a human species parochialist view. And figure out Under what circumstance it would be conscious is a very interesting question that we need to figure out because it won't be that it has gray matter. It'll be something else. Or maybe we'll figure this out.

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  39. It's creating agents that can operate on their own. We already have that, by the way. Like the agent, you can be running an agent with a connection to the internet on your computer and then can go buy stuff for you. You can do that today. It's doable. You have agent, just a question of what the shape is. So it's agentic. It's cognitive. Like it's very strange that we have a technology now that we can talk to in various ways. And so you have people mistaken going, oh, it must be conscious because they asked if it was conscious and it said it was conscious. And I was like, no. But by the way, before this technology existed, that was a good test. By the way, there are conscious things that can't, there's mute people. And the fact that they can't tell you they're conscious. So conscious not perfectly, they tell you they're conscious, but you tell me you're conscious. That was a pretty good test before. Now it's a little bit more complicated because I don't think any of the current AIs are conscious and we can go into depth of reason of neuroscience and other kinds of things.

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  40. It might be. I think there is, I always think in probability distributions. I think there's a good probability of it, but to some degree Like it doesn't matter if it is or isn't the most it is a profound new technology. It's as important at least as these other ones. That's the only thing that matters whether it definitely is or not doesn't really matter. And look what is different. It's the fact that it's a gentic technology, right?

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  41. New, but by the way, each technology, the printing press, was different when it was created. Electricity was different when it was created Cars were different when they were created.

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  42. So, you want to build them in the right hands first? That's all. I mean, look, there will be cost to it. There's never, look, electricity. Essential for human society. It does electrocute people, right? It does two things in the wrong hands too, right?

    2024-12-16 · The Diary of a CEO · Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  43. Yes, that too. Yes. That's the bigger worry. So you say, one worry is transition, and another worry is whenever you're creating this new technology, you want to say, I want to empower all these people who are building better lives for themselves in society, and I'd want to not empower criminals, terrorists, rogue states.

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  44. It knows all three. That's a superpower that no human being has. We have AI superpower today, right? But of course no one's alarmed about that. Because like, oh, that's a great amplification of algae. That really helps me. I think there's a very good chance that what happens is that what we're creating with all of every current AI technique that's under development is these amazing savants that are these great co-pilots. And that's what we're creating. Not Terminator robots, not super intelligences. There's a possibility of that. And I can address the existential risk questions around the possibility of that because people think about that poorly. But I think the likelihood is that we're going to be having these kind of co-pilots that give us these informational GPSs, these cognitive superpowers that make us as human beings a lot better

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  45. It's a technique by which modern AIs are created that have different kind of expertise roles in the combinations like ChatGPT is created this way that create their output. It's a particular technical definition for the way of creating a world-class AI model. Then I'd say, okay, compare a mixture of experts who use only thousands of people who understand how to do that. I say, okay, compare that to modern economic game theory. Well, there's probably some humans that can do that too. We're probably now down to like fifty to one hundred. Then I say, okay, compare those two to modern oceanography. Okay, now we're at zero human beings. There's no human beings induced, but I can go to GBD4 and I can run this. GBD4, because it's ingested a trillion words of knowledge can write the comparisons between these three things.

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  46. Well, it depends. This is part of the thing is we human beings are very bad at imagining future technology. So I can tell you stories about where we have created AIs with IQ of a thousand. I can tell you stories we've created AIs with IQs of 200, of 150. And I can also tell you stories of AIs what we created that are kind of the equivalent, because today we have this, is the forms like idiot savants. Like today's AIs are super intelligent. I'll give you an example. So if I go to a human being, I try to look around a human being and say, explain to me mixture of experts, creation of AI within AI.

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  47. cause a bad impact on humanity. So you have to be developing it. You have to be going with the clock that's set by the world, right?

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  48. Like go with it, like take the Industrial Revolution, which also had a bunch of things. Why did Europe basically set the drum beat for the globe for centuries? The answer is Europe embraced the Industrial Revolution robustly and early. It's part of what made the British Empire. And so that clock is set by different human beings all running at it. And by the way, they have different theories of the good. They have different theories of how technology should be in society. They have different theories of what the risks are technologies. Like, you know, when these people published this pause letter, that's a mistake. Like, other people aren't going to, like, it's a simple thing you look at. The people who care about humanity, if they all pause and the people who don't care about humanity don't pause, your letter, if you achieve your success will...

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  49. These new technologies are developed competitively across the entire globe, different countries, different industries, different companies, etc. And we don't set the clock. Like there's no one group that sets the clock. And if you don't

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  50. And you say, is the fear completely unwarranted? Well, look, human societies are bad at new general purpose technologies, right? So with the printing press, we had it nearly a century of religious war because of it. So the transitions are very difficult because we as human beings are difficult at new general purpose technologies. And so the transition, look, the transition is going to have pain. There's going to be challenges and reordering and so forth disruption because of it. No question. What I'm hoping and part of the reason I write these books is say, look, let's manage this transition better than we've managed the previous transitions. I have 100% confidence that the other side, this will be enormously amazing super agency. What I wanted to do is manage the transition as best we can. Now, people say, well, shouldn't you manage the transition by being really slow and being really regulated? Well, the challenge is that...

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