YouSaid · the spoken record

Renee Haugerud

lines on the record: 12
first: 2026-06-23
most recent: 2026-06-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Getting at a really interesting disconnect, which is if you look at the index level, the market has not been that volatile. But what's happened is the combination of extremely high volatility at the individual stock level and very low correlations. That is the various stocks moving in different directions. And so that means the index has not been that erratic, but stocks have been. And when you look at investor leverage, whether it's margin debt, hedge fund leverage, or the increase in assets of leveraged ETFs, all of that contributes to the view that we're going to see more volatility going forward.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Could spend a whole podcast talking about this, but the medium term outlook is similar to what we've seen recently, which is a backdrop of very healthy earnings growth, powering the market higher. To give you some numbers, the S&P 500 is up about 10% year to date. Over that same period, forward earnings are up about 17%. That means PE multiples are actually lower today than they were at the start of the year. Earnings have done all of the driving, and our expectation is that will continue. Of course, as we discussed, there are a lot of uncertainties, not just IPOs, geopolitics, AI. So I do think we'll see continued volatility in the market, but we also think the bold trend should continue.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Admittedly, the math does get harder in 2027. Part of the reason that, in our view, the demand will outweigh the supply this year is that a lot of these IPOs are coming public with relatively small floats. They're issuing relatively small shares of the company when they first launch. But over time, more shares will come to market, investor lockups will expire, and that suggests that potentially there will be a lot more supplies as we look into 2027 and beyond. And, of course, there are a lot of uncertainties between here and there, but it does become a more challenging outlook.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's actually a very interesting point you make. I mean, people don't think about that demand side as much in this context. But do you see an inflection point coming though at some point will you see that tip and demand less than supply?”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is probably the biggest concern we hear in our conversations with investors, whether it's institutional investors, corporates. It's amazing, actually. More than AI, more than the macro environment today, this is the fear that investors have that supply is going to overwhelm the market. And I think there are a few reasons not to worry. First, as I mentioned earlier, the number of deals is really not exceptional, although the magnitude of dollar issuance is quite large. Second is, of course, markets get larger over time. And so although we're forecasting a record magnitude of issuance, about $700 billion this year if you combine IPOs and follow-ons, that scales to just about 1% of the equity market. That's actually lower than the long-term average. It's roughly in line with the environment from 2015 to 2019. And then the third reason is that corporate demand is still quite elevated. If you look at buybacks, they're going to exceed a trillion dollars this year, which means even before we think about retail investors or hedge funds or mutual funds, corporate demand for shares.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, okay, so that's a comforting message you're giving us. When we think about this issuance, it's obviously happening against a backdrop of a very strong equity market broadly. I mean, there's been some volatility, but we're basically at or very close to all-time highs in the major U.S. equity indices. So what is the additional supply of shares mean for that overall strength in the equity market?”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some similarities. Equity valuations are very high, not quite as high as in 2021 or 2000, but they're very high. Investor confidence is clearly elevated. And of course, there's the backdrop of technological change and potential new area to invest in. Those are the similarities. I think the key contrast is something we alluded to a little earlier. If you look at the 25-year average, there's about 100 deals per year. So we're tracking pretty close to that average. In 2021, there were over 250 IPOs. In 1999, almost 400. So although the dollar of volume is quite elevated, although we're seeing an acceleration in activity, to me it still looks like we're a far cry from that level of euphoric sentiment that we saw in those episodes.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Definitely an indication of positive sentiment, both on the corporate side, the sense that business activity is good, and there's a desire to use the capital that will be raised through IPOs, and in terms of investor sentiment, which you see broadly an equity valuations, the real concern from investors is, is this indicative of a kind of euphoric environment that marks the peak of bubbles? It's not lost on clients that we also saw a very sharp increase in IPO activity, for example, in the late 1990s, or as I mentioned earlier in 2021.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To some extent, a healthy market environment is a requirement for IPO activity. We've built a tool we call the IPO barometer. We view it as a macro indicator of how conducive the environment is for IPO activity. That combines things like interest rates, CEO confidence, equity valuations. Today, all those signals are pretty healthy. If the long-term average of the barometer is about 100, today we're at 140, which is not as high as we got in 2021, but otherwise at the top of the range. And if AI were to deteriorate, probably a lot of those indicators would deteriorate as well.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But it's been concentrated. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it's been concentrated in certain sectors. Obviously, technology, the AI-related theme. Is it as narrow as I think it is in terms of that sector?”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, one, as you noted, is we're covering from a four year stretch of very muted activity. We had an IPO boom in 2021, valuations were elevated, we had the sharpest fed hiking cycle on record, and that led to a few years of recovering valuations. And so to some extent, what's happening is just a normal recovery. But on top of that, we have, of course, some very large companies that are coming to market, and we have this immense desire for capital to help fund the AI boom and putting all that together is the reason we're seeing such a strong acceleration in deal volume.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just about halfway through the calendar year, and so far we've seen just shy of 50 U.S. IPOs. That's about double what we saw at this point last year. And it's the largest number of deals at this point in the calendar year since 2021, which was one of the largest IPO years on record. So we are definitely seeing a recovery. What's notable, though, is that the size of the deals on average has been very large. And so in dollar terms, we're already basically tied with 2021 for a record year of about $120 billion in issuance.”
2026-06-23 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · What the IPO Boom Tells Us · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT