YouSaid · the spoken record

Richard Clarida

lines on the record: 101
first: 2017-08-03
most recent: 2017-08-03
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yeah, yeah. No, I agree. And I think that we'll see what comes out of the discussions in Washington on infrastructure. But I think clearly the economy needs better and more infrastructure, but so far there's a stalemate about putting more in place.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Policy. And there was some talk about doing infrastructure. I think you can look it up on Google. President Obama said much show already. Yeah, he said, I found out the hard way there aren't a lot of shovel ready projects. So that's sort of an example of the implementation.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the broader economy. Well, the old. So there's no implementation lag with monetary policy. In fact, the Fed doesn't even have to wait for a meeting if the situation calls that you can have an intermeeting move, as we know. So there's no implementation lag of monetary policy, but there is a lag from when policy impacts the real economy. You know, Milton Friedman famously said at one time that monetary policy operates with long and variable lags. I think more recent research has indicated that the lags perhaps because the economies become more financialized, the lags are perhaps not so long. And in particular now, Fed officials like Bill Dudley, who I think does a great job, talk about financial conditions as being an input into the Fed's calculation. I think the best example of the challenges with counter-cyclical fiscal policy is you look back in the President Obama administration when we had a big recession. They wanted to do counter...”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“After 2010 or so. And I think as a practical matter, most economists would agree that there's a lot positive that fiscal policy can do in terms of infrastructure, in terms of encouraging investment and the like. But I think in terms of being a supple tool for counter-cyclical uses, it has a lot of problems.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, let's start with the second part of your question there. So I think the consensus among academic and economists and policymakers going into the crisis was that in practice in the US, fiscal policy is not a particularly effective tool because of the lags and implementation and the politics involved in getting bills through. And the view is you should really just have monetary policy focusing on counter-cyclical objectives. As rates have gone to zero, we've gone into quantitative easing. In Europe, they've gone to negative rates. I think certainly the profession is more receptive to thinking about fiscal policy. You know, Barry, we did have a big fiscal response in 2009. We had a $1 trillion deficit that year. But you're right that we went actually from stimulus in 09 to a period of fiscal austerity.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if that's necessarily an unallied positive. I think there's more to economics than math. And I think in some ways that maybe dates my vintage of people. So for me, economics was always about understanding the economy intutally. And then the math was sort of a tool to get at it. But I do think now that there is the pendulum has definitely swung towards beginning with the math and sort of reverse engineering the economics, which always makes me uncomfortable. So even when I teach a PhD course before I launch into the math, I try to do the intuitive version. And so I may be the last generation of people who still do it that way, where you start with the economics and then you do the math later.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's build a company. It depends. I think many of them desire to stay here if they can. But certainly there are global opportunities as well. Barry, I think the third thing I would mention, and now I'm going to sound maybe a little bit of an odd thing to say. But I think the amount, the mathematical background now of students in US PhD programs is really off the chart. Programs do now do a very good job of sorting students by pure math ability.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That could well be. So the other thing certainly when I'm now talking about maybe in the graduate program is it is truly now a global market for students who are applying to graduate school. So when I was a graduate student, I think in my class at Harvard of the 25 students who I entered with, I think 21 were educated in U.S. colleges. And I think in the typical US PhD program now, fewer than half the students are U.S. students, just because there's a global market from people in Europe, South America, Asia. And so the number of applications to US PhD programs from around the world has just gone up by leaps. So it's very international student body.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wow, that's a great question. I would make the following observations. First of all, there's a lot more interest in economics now than 30 years ago.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Affiliations. And my office was right next to someone named Jim Tobin. So talk about an eye-opening experience as a 26-year-old assistant professor and the fellow next door is Nobel laureate and legend Jim Tobin”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I applied to some other good schools, but kids from coal mining towns and downstate Illinois didn't go to Harvard, but I was admitted and went there. And then in those days, you could get a PhD in four years. Typically now it takes five or six. And so then I went straight from college to Harvard, and then I went straight from Harvard to my first job as an assistant professor at Yale back in 1983.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That was a program that started under Abraham Lincoln, and the idea was that there would be federal land given to states if they would build universities on it. And there was some support. Yeah. So very much public-private partnership. Alexander Hamilton approach, yes. And so University of Illinois, Michigan, they're called the land grant universities. And I think tuition was $600 a term or a year and incredible education. And then was an econ major and applied to graduate school and in one of the huge surprises in life-changing events of my life actually got into Harvard had no expectation that would happen.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it was. So I went straight from the University of Illinois where I must say I got an incredible education, one of the great land grant universities and was an economics major.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are good at fighting the last war, so I'm very convinced, Barry, that two things there will be another financial crisis, and I'm convinced of the other thing is it will not look like the last crisis, because we're always quite good at making sure the next crisis looks different. And that's where I think the real power of Reinhardt and Rogoff is, is we keep persuading ourselves that things are different because we're not going to have another subprime meltdown. But it'll show up somewhere else. Greed is a constant fact of life. And I think in some ways the system still is fragile because of the interconnectedness now globally. It's no longer a U.S. market or a French market. What happens in Beijing or Riyadh impacts all of our markets as well? So I think one thing that we do know is the big global huge banks have much more capital than they did before. And as we mentioned, they have more liquid assets. But that just means, I think, the risk might”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just to mention, one of the real high points of my time at PIMCA was a chance to work very closely with Paul for six, seven or eight years. And I learned so much from him. And in particular, when I got there in 06, he was already on the Minsk soapbox. And I must admit at that time I had some vague recollection of reading Minsky in graduate school, but obviously that was a very, very prescient call on his part. To your broader question, clearly in retrospect, and believe me, Barry, I did not have a crystal ball in 05 and 06, but clearly in retrospect, the stability of the 2000s did breed instability through, as we mentioned, the securitization and the credit derivatives and all of that stuff. So what I'd like to say is I think the old saying is, you know, general...”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, and that's the name of the branch of economics that I work in. That's an example where the jargon's probably relevant to other members of that club, but I think to the general public, it's probably not all that important. Essentially what it means is that you're building a model of the economy, which is going to be modeling the economy over time so it's dynamic over time, but it also allows for stuff to happen, stuff happens, so shocks to happen. So you want to know how the economy evolves when it's hit by shocks, you know, oil shocks, supply shocks, fiscal shocks. And so that's the stochastic part of the equation.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This in that became what we call our new neutral thesis, and it's been a really important part of the way that we've been investing for the last three years.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, and I think that's obviously crucial for me to add value to the operation. I think I'll give you a concrete example. This whole idea that we talked about it a moment ago about the new neutral, that is something that I began to think about based on my academic work working with something that we would call a forward-looking version of a Taylor rule, work I did with Mark Gertler and Jordi Galli at NYU. So we were pretty early on in the late 90s and sort of focusing on a rules-based monetary policy. But one of the things about the original Taylor rules, it assumed that this neutral policy rate was constant. And I began to be persuaded that, in fact, we're in a world where neutral is not constant. In fact, it's going to be lower. The destination for the funds rate. And so I basically was making the case internally that we need to factor.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so, what do I do for Pimco? Well, I basically work on global macro focusing on the G10 economies, given my interest and my research. I spent a lot of time thinking about the Fed and other central banks. Obviously central banks are key to value bonds. Pimco has a lot of clients, especially around the world who I go see, and then more recently since 2014, the folks there have asked me to oversee our annual second or forum process, which is really an integral part of PIMCO's investment process. We've been doing it for 36 years. We bring in outside speakers three days a year just for the investors and the executives of the firm to think about what the global economy is going to look like over the next three to five years. So you mentioned the new normal in one of the earlier segments. I talk about the new neutral. Those are both themes that emerged from our...”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and all based upon basically making the right decisions in a four or five year period. So literally one of the giants of economics. But to answer your question, after he left the Fed, he spent many years at something called the Group of 30, which is basically an informal organization of former policymakers. And the group of 30 commissioned a paper by me. I'm not a member of the group of 30. I'm not in that club. But they occasionally commissioned papers. And so Paul and his team asked me to write a paper right after the Asia Financial Crisis on sort of what the book 98, 99, what the global currency markets would look like in the aftermath of that crisis. And so I took it as an opportunity to write a long 60-page scholarly paper thinking about the foreign exchange markets after the Asia crisis. So it was a real, real treat to work with him.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I should say also known as Paul Voker for many years after he left. I should say Paul Volcker is one of my heroes. You talk about profiles and courage, but what Paul Volcker did under enormous pressure and with very high stakes to break the back of inflation in the early 1980s and really bequeath the foundations for a 25-year bull market and bonds and stocks.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Cabinet around the New York Fed. I believe so. I have not done it in a while, but it's quite an impressive group. You had Chris Simms as a Nobel laureate, someone named Ben Bernanke was there every week. Rick Nishkin, Mike Woodford. So it was a real treat to be part of that group.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it depends. I think in the case of Credit Suisse, that was almost 20 years ago, and I was essentially working with their FX team to build some econometric models of the currency market and currency valuation. So they were essentially outsourcing some of that. To me, I was actually sort of proud. They actually still, they were running that model about 15 years or so. They've since retired it. But that was a good project. You know, the New York Fed has a lot of programs. In the case of there, I visited during the summer, worked on some papers, co-authored with their staff, spent some time back in the 90s when Rick Michigan was the director of research at the New York Fed, where he had a little kitchen cabinet of people who would come down every Friday and have lunch. I love that idea.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I think it could be tied to, it surely could be tied to infrastructure. And again, I think it's under discussion, but I think ultimately the decision is going to come down.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I do think, Barry, that I think there is a case for it. Apparently the Treasury under Secretary Manuchin is exploring this idea. I think what gives them some pause is compared to the UK, where there's a voracious appetite for a very long duration assets, there may not be so much of one in the US. And so the Treasury doesn't want to get into an area where it's having to offer up a much higher yield to lock in that money for 50 years. So I think it's under discussion.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're relatively short. Again, well, they go out to 30 years, but beyond that, because essentially for many individual investors, potentially the biggest risk they face over the life cycle is you do all this hard saving, you earn some decent returns, and then two or three years of 15% inflation. And of course, your younger listeners are saying, oh, 15% inflation, that can't happen. That was my senior year in college. That was my.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, there is an issue which is historically the treasury is not issued beyond 30 years, no pun intended. There is globally a demand. There's a certain community, think insurance companies think other managers that really have an appetite for very long-duration assets. Sure, actuarial tables. Exactly. And so I think there could be a case for doing so, in particular long duration inflation index securities.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you're actually starting to see that gas, which used to be very, very geographically segmented. There's basically now approaching a global market in gas. You're right. Yeah.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and also, Barry, the fact is because of the LNG technology, we can actually export our natural gas. And 10 years ago, the talk was needed to import natural gas. Now we're exporting.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The way you used to. There were some elements of that, but I think that a lot of them actually expired. But getting back to your initial point, I think there is a measurement issue with productivity, but I do think apart from the measurement issue, we're in globally a period of pretty slow growth right now. But as I said, economists don't have a good track record at inflection points. So we can have a big surprise, perfect example, who would have said 10 years ago or even eight years ago that you would see the revolution in fracking and shale that we've seen. That was a technological revolution that's transformed the entire global energy market, right? Remember the thinking was, well, what's the big deal with fracking with oil at 100? Well, because of fracking, oil's at 60 and not 100. So that's a huge impact that 10 years ago, 15 years ago, nobody foresaw.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's across the board. Also, let's face it, in our system, we have different parts of the tax code that encourage different activities, real estate, for example. We have an abysmal tax code when it comes to taxing corporations, really incenting them to move abroad. That's what we could do.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You can measure widgets, but you can't measure How do you actually measure? So I think there is an element to that, but I do think also that we're in a period of relatively slow perturbative growth, in part Barry, because we haven't had a lot of investment in this country really in about a dozen years. And in particular, as capital stock has moved towards equipment that depreciates faster, technology becomes obsolete, we probably have more of an investment shortfall than we're even measuring. Is that at a corporate level?”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Great point, and I think the truth is it's probably some of both. Clearly, there are enormous amount of innovation, especially web-based innovation, and it's tough to measure that. We all know that. But I do think that for a variety of reasons, that there is also a real productivity slowdown. Part of it may simply be as you move towards a service economy, it's intrinsically hard to measure, even old-fashioned widgets.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For the balance sheet. That may be for the next Fed share to figure out. So I would expect that what Yellen and company are likely to do in June or later this year is to lay out, if you will, a glide path or scenario for balance sheet reduction. They may begin to do that and then it'll be up to the next Fed chair to implement as he or she sees fit.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What do you mean by that? Not just let them roll off, but replace some of them as they come up. So, for example, what the Fed minutes... Any additional roll off above that cap, they would then step into the market and buy. So the Fed will be shrinking the balance sheet, but it will still be buying along this normalization path. Just buying less than they want to smooth it. And they're also in a situation whereby they made the case, which I agree with, that when they did QE at lowered rates. So if you're reversing QE, it's probably going to raise rates. And they're really unsure by how much. And because they're unsure, they want to really smooth this process out, which means it's going to be very gradual. And I think the other issue that your listeners should know, Barry, is there are two big decisions for the Fed to make. How fast do they let it roll off? And then what is the ultimate destination? They haven't really given us much insight on the ultimate destination. And I suspect that this Fed may not, in the end, make a decision on the ultimate size.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that would be one very plausible scenario, and I think if you go back and read what Fed officials said five or six years ago, that's what they thought they would be doing. They thought that eventually they would just step back, they would stop buying, and as the treasuries mature, that balance sheet would shrink, and as the mortgages prepay or people move or refinance, those mortgages would roll off. It's pretty clear now based upon the Fed minutes that have been released this year, that they are not going to pursue that passive approach. What they're going to do is they're going to try to smooth the path of balance sheet reduction. And I think they're doing so for a couple reasons.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look at the 90s. And so, in a world where the economy is growing at 4%, you sort of need a 4% interest rate, but in a world where the real growth in the economy is two, in fact, basically one thing, Barry, about the last several years that people may not know is that U.S. has been a very stable economy in terms of volatility. GDP growth in a good year is 2.3 in a weak year is 1.7, but it's very tightly centered around that 2% number. And so with slow growth, slow productivity growth, and slow labor force growth, the Fed needs to normalize, but the destination will be much lower than before.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, think about it now. Think about how you would value equities or any asset class if you were discounting those cash flows at 4% as opposed to one or two. And I think when people ask, well, why is it a new neutral? I think there are a couple of reasons. One, growth rates have slowed down. When you and I began our careers, growth in the economy in a good year was three and a half, sometimes four percent. Productivity growth was two, two and a half percent.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think it is, and I think in both episodes, the Fed officials have appealed to risk management. I think in particular now, given that rates are low and we're in what I and others have called a new neutral for monetary policy, so your listener should remember before the crisis, there was a pretty broad consensus among central bankers that the Fed's policy rate, the funds rate, should be some number at or above 4% once you get to full employment. And I believe, and I think the evidence shows, that for a variety of reasons, there's a new destination for the Fed rate, which is going to be, say, two or two and a half, not four.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It says the target's 2%. And yet, since they became an inflation target or formerly in 2012, inflation's been below 2% every year. And so the Fed sometimes says that 2% should be an average, but they also said they don't want inflation to go above 2%, which means the average, of course, will be below. So I do think that now that the Fed has begun to normalize policy and we're at what the Fed thinks of is full employment, that I think it is appropriate to continue that normalization in rates. And obviously the next issue, which I'm sure we'll want to talk about, is the Fed's approach to normalizing and shrinking that huge 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To drive lower than zero. And also, remember at that time, both Fanny and Freddie had been put into conservator ship. And so there was just a huge amount of uncertainty in the financial markets about what the mortgage market would look like without that backstop. And so the Fed got into the mortgage business, I think grudgingly, Fed officials have said many times publicly that they're not thrilled to be the biggest holder of mortgages, but they were put into that position given the crisis. So I would give the Fed quite high marks during that period 0809-10 in crisis management. I think if we fast forward more recently, if I would have a disagreement with the Fed, I think that the Fed's messaging has been inconsistent and a little bit hard to follow in terms of normalization for rates. And in particular, an issue, Barry, that I look at a lot is this idea that the Fed is targeting inflation.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“During coming out of the financial crisis, the global financial crisis. Well, I've said many times a lot on Bloomberg Air, I give the Fed generally very high marks for crisis management under Bernanke. Obviously, you cut rates as far as you can. The Fed cut the funds rate to zero month or two after Lehman. So you really go to plan B and Plan B was doing quantitative easing and in particular in the first QE program focused on the mortgage market. Buying up.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it was a real thrill, and it's not routinely awarded. I think in my case, the recognition reflected the fact that because through the coincidence of timing, Barry, I arrived, as I mentioned, during a recession. Remember, the prior expansion had lasted 10 years, and so a lot of folks had sort of forgotten what does a recession look like? How do we know when we're out of it?”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the other thing is we had what appeared to be, and what many, including myself, thought was an innovation in finance securitization and the fact that in mortgages as in other parts of the credit market, credits were being securitized and they were no longer on the balance sheets of banks. And the Fed and others thought that made the financial system safer. And in theory, maybe it did, but obviously in retrospect, there were some excesses insecuritization and in derivatives. And I think the system was more fragile than a lot of folks thought at the time. And certainly, and I think that was a big part of it.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bubble at the time, and so I guess one can try to make a connection between that policy and the housing bubble. And that may have been a factor, but I think there are a lot of other factors at work as well. Well, yeah.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In June of 2003, and kept it there for a year. Obviously Since that period of time, I must say at the time I was at Treasure and I would have weekly meetings at The Fed is part of that job I was aware of that policy Was not a critic of it At the time, it did seem to be Policy. I think since that point, Some critics of the Fed have pointed out that the Fed was very slow to begin raising rates in 04 and 05 and 2006. And of course, we also had a housing.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At the time, interestingly enough, the time there was a concern A deflation The economy was recovering, but the recovery in 2002 Was pretty feeble And so, as a result, there was also a lot of changes impacting the financial. As well.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, MBER is an incredible organization that I think dates back to the 20s. It's essentially an independent organization for doing applied economic research, really pioneering work in business cycle analysis. I was fortunate enough to do my graduate work at Harvard in the In the 70s and early 1980s, right about the time that Marty Feldstein moved the MBER from New York to Cambridge. And so it's really an incredible organization. I started as a faculty research fellow and now as a research associate and essentially part of a group that publishes applied research in my case in international macroeconomics.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think But that's, of course, with the benefit of hindsight at the time, the MBER hadn't gotten around to that. But you're right, now we know it started marching into November.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like a pretty tame and quiet period, but it's pretty eventful. The doctor and bubble, we had the Enron Worldcom accounting scandals and obviously the financial system seizing up for a while. So yeah, it was a very eventful time.”
2017-08-03 · Masters in Business · Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source