YouSaid · the spoken record

Richard Field

lines on the record: 146
first: 2022-10-20
most recent: 2022-10-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“For zero If you go to JPMorgan's balance sheet or you go to Goldman's balance sheet, those aren't marked to market. They're sitting in their investment portfolio. So, banks don't actually have to recognize their losses. This is what I'm telling you. This is what the reason the stuff all has to be disclosed is. So you actually know whether they're solvent or insolvent, because solvency isn't a measure of, is the book value of your assets greater than the book value of your liabilities?”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's so much fun, Jack, because I'm going to leave you with one last piece just because it's so much fun. They say that... Treasury bonds are risk free. Except for the little interest rate risk. Look what has happened to people who owned long-term bonds over the last year. got crunched by twenty six percent.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like Basel II. Yeah, I mean, I do see a similarity, which is quite stunning between something like mortgages, which historically was not volatile, or default rates, not volatile. So you can lever it up huge. And Treasury bonds or quote, risk-free sovereign bonds that have tons of interest rate risk, but they don't move that much. But charging bonds are more liquid. So I don't know. I mean, I don't know, man. It's interesting. We got to close this. We've been doing this close to two hours.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Value at risk, but they needed a first client. Thank you very much. My bank was either client one or two, but we pushed whoever what you could call one to be then, their first client. Okay, it's elegant in its way and simply shouldn't be relied on. Okay, but for regulators, it was fantastic because it got us to be able to get all sorts of favorable regulations through and suggested that we knew what our risk was and we were managing it better.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Evaluate risk is an interesting concept that has never shown that's great for regulators. As a market participant, I wouldn't recommend it. I help to invent value at risk. JPMorgan had a group, a risk group. Who actually should be credited with inventing the”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Did you disclose derivative assets and liabilities? I mean, the valuation of those assets and liabilities is obviously depends on a lot of key assumptions, which there's a lot of opacity, right? Their value at risk models, that's interesting to look at.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not And reference securities and implied correlation. Let me say You were right. It should be accessible and easy enough for the market to actually go. Here's what you got so as to actually say, here's the risk. We understand what risk you're taking. And each of these entities. The fact that the risk is hidden is the problem.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the analyst could understand, and I think the regulators could because here's the thing, it may be opaque about, oh, let's say we have $40 billion worth of interest rate. We have receiver swaps, and so we lose money if interest rates go up. I understand what that is. It's not disclosed, but I do understand what it is. It's only a handful of asset classes and. It's not as complicated as synthetic CEOs and reference securities and implied correlation of defaults of different tranches.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That tells us that JP Morgan is too big to exist. Because if the analysts from B of A and C and Goldman can't understand it, That tells you that federal regulators can't understand it either. And it needs to be shrunk This isn't a bug in transparency, it's a feature, and it gets these guys down to a size where they should be.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the 10% that you don't, you still don't know what you own, right? You still don't know what the risks are hiding in that 10%. And by the way, for different entities, what you have to disclose so an investor could know differ. If you are a bank, what you have to disclose is their current exposures. That's both on and off balance sheet. The market is actually incredibly good at assessing the risk of those exposures. Consider what that would do to Goldman's derivative portfolio if they suddenly realized that everybody was looking at their derivatives portfolio. They would shrink it significantly. Now I've had some people argue with me that says, you know, if you disclosed everything that J.P. Morgan has as an exposure, nobody could understand it. Let me That might be true. And if it's true,”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There has been no additions to disclosure. That have made them more. Transparent Transparency is one of these interesting issues. In that either you are or you aren't It's a zero one either the data is available, the disclosures are available or they're not”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What's being hit? What's being hit? What in complexity? There's nobody with a more complicated balance sheet. Then JP There is nobody more opaque than JP Morgan.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What's an example of a security that's more opaque than a synthetic CDO? Of subprime mortgages. I mean, they're literally, there aren't enough trees on earth to print out the paperwork of the different counterparties and stuff. What's more complicated than that right now”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He has more than a load of Tosh loads, train loads. Remember, I come from the world of looking at the world and asking the question of transparency. Is there enough disclosure so an investor could know what they own? And we actually have more. Securities outstanding today. The answer when you ask that about the security, could you know, is no, then yes. It's actually moraqua the global financial system today than it was in 2008.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's his bet This is all going to blow up. We got this highly leveraged system and we're raising rates into a highly leveraged system. That is undoubtedly going to cause problems. You got inflation. I can't imagine exposures in Europe are worth much. I mean, look what's happening to Germany's economy. You got people like BASF. Who I believe is the largest chemical company in the world. And basically It is because of not having access to natural gas, being effectively closed down a substantial portion of its business. So some debt that you never would have thought might be Not repaid is suddenly subject to losses. And that's a BASF. There's a lot of stuff going on here with this energy crisis and higher interest rates. You know”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Interest rate derivatives. It's about interest rate derivatives, but Goldman just came out and said, oh, by the way, credit suit needs $7 billion worth of equity. In their estimation. A not insignificant number. That tells you something about what Goldman is thinking is going on off its balance sheet. Because credit Suisse is saying, oh, look at our pristine balance sheet. None of these banks are sitting on big losses on their balance sheet so far today. Okay, all I was telling you is every one of those banks knows what the realities of its own balance sheet. Okay, and they know the reality of their own balance sheet is not what's there for public consumption. And they're hoping that Jimie Diamond's case that he's got enough short sign against all of his competitors. When this blows up again, that he's going to remain standing.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's what he derivatives. His country derivatives, equity derivatives, currency derivatives, and then interest rate derivatives. It is that latter one that I really think you could see some, I mean, that's what the pension crisis in the UK is all about interest rate derivatives.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What you're saying there. Just go to let's stay with JP Morgan because I love him. Okay, I mean, I think I actually think Diamond is the best operator in the bank sector. Let's go to its derivative book because that's the one that nobody can see what the real risks are. I'm telling you. If you think back to 2012 with the London whale, Where supposedly he was hedging, and they managed to lose twelve and a half billion dollars on the hedges? We don't know, and even Jamie Diamond didn't know at the time what exposures were being taken in all of these derivatives There's no reason to think that these derivatives, as I said, a derivative is only as good as the counterparty on the other side.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But what kind of off balance sheet debt, off balance sheet swaps? No, no, that is something I'm worried about. I mean, particularly an institution like Goldman Sachs, which we're recording this on Friday, October 14th. I think it reports earnings on Tuesday the 18th. But if you just look at the investment banking business, it's really in a very bad way. I'll say as bad as mortgages, I would say over 50% declines from last year. Of course, Base Effects last year was ridiculously high, unnaturally high. But I think the Morgan Stanley Investment Banking business this quarter for third quarter was lower than last year's, the year before it, the year before it, the year before that, the year before that. I think 2016 was the time you'd find a lower number just for pure investment banking business. So, yeah, I mean, I just think that the business is really bad. And, you know, I think that very, very relates to QT, which I think is a good thing. So yeah, just to the JPMorgan's.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah. By the lungs, look at used car. Values For several months there, they were flying higher. And all of a sudden used car values are plummeting like a rock. And I heard someplace where Apparently the average monthly payment now that people have on their car loan is like $1,000 a month for a car loan. There is like no chance there aren't huge losses coming because they repossess the car. And it's for a car that's not as valuable as what they've got up against it as a loan. Every one of those sectors. But you're also not factoring in is what do you think the exposures are off balance sheet, which is the really the place where the lion's share of the losses are, to all the other banks.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if I have JP Morgan's balance sheet in front of me. Not talk about security. We're not talking about securities. Bonds, mortgage back securities, whatever. We're talking about just loans, good old fashioned 1920 style loans. So there's consumer loans, business banking loans, which is commercial loans, home lending. Credit card and then auto loans. So you're thinking all four of those are ripe for.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, I think our developers are a little bit smarter and we didn't quite let them have as much leverage, but I'm betting there's a lot of losses coming in the real estate. We also got losses on the commercial real estate side because work from home does reduce office demand. Kind of figured out I can have Jack share his office space with three other people. Okay, so we're going to have a lot of that type of adjustment too. I think over 30 years, the real estate industry can adjust, but I think there can be some huge losses between now and then. That's all I'm saying here.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where he shorted the market, covering his losses. That's the assumption he's making. And that means the counterpart has got to be good And I'm not convinced these counterparties are good. I think we're still back to 2008. We didn't take care of the bad debt. We know there's a truckload of bad debt sitting out there. As I said, that's the debt zombies. Somebody's holding on to it. We got house prices going up. That's going to create more problems. By the way, I think we have it bad. Look at China. They blew up their property bubble. It turns out basically none of the developers are solvent.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Go back to the number of debt zombies I said to you. We're almost at twenty percent. Of corporate America is a debt zombie. There's no reason to think that it's a commercial lending business doesn't have a lot of bad debt in it. We come to the consumers who the Fed is doing its bit to create unemployment. Who has the credit cards where they're actually paying interest on their credit cards? That's the poorer people, right? That's not the sort of thing that somebody worth $10 million pays 18% on their credit card. Okay, so what you're going to see is the losses never going to go up fairly dramatically. You can kind of go through his book of business. He's got a lot of places that are going to lose a lot of money. Bankers have always overlent. That's kind of in their nature. Yes, to overlent? So he's counting on, as I said, his”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they're realizing Let me step back a second. We've been in regulatory forbearance. Since two thousand eight, regulatory forbearance simply means if you are a bank and your client doesn't manage to make its interest payment, you can advance them under the terms of the loan the interest payment. So you claim they made it and that it's still a performing loan.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, where are the losses? Where are the losses? Because in 2008, we know the losses in 2008. Where are the losses now? Because JP Morgan was saying the credit losses that they're realizing are very small. Defaults are very small, are very low.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jamie bet against the industry in two thousand eight. As I told you, it's a great bet if and only if the counterparty can pay up. If the counterparties can't pay, you're stuck with the losses. So where are the losses?”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very, very bad. That market is getting crushed. There isn't going to be new product coming onto the market of the new houses.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think we maybe agree. I'm not going to sell, which means that the housing market is going to slow down to a real crawl. Not going to be any sales. Because the seller isn't going to be willing to take what the buyer would be able to offer.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'll bet you 10 to 1. I mean, a gentleman's bet, but I'll bet 10 times more honor than you'll give me. So I'm very short convexity. The case dealer will not go down by 30%. I agree that if someone had to sell their house, there might be conditions under which they might suffer a 30% loss, but they would not do it. So if liquidity were infinite, those losses might happen”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, suddenly that house in Idaho, that's my second home. I need that condo back in San Francisco. Okay, or this is what we're dealing with here. What I'm suggesting here is... The Fed has also decided, okay, what we want to do is kill That bull whip effect, they're stepping into the middle of the effect. Prices were coming down on their own, and they're going to accelerate the decline. Can you imagine what people are going to think when they realize that their house is worth 30% less? Okay, that's part of how people think of their net worth. Wealth. That was whether they were saving money. He's dramatically decreasing demand in this country. By the way, I...”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that effectively accelerates. But now you say, wait a second, we had this moment of the COVID where everybody is buying a house and running out of apartments. Which is what happened And they could work from home. So suddenly there's this booming demand. But as we said, all of that's now reversing because the people in San Francisco say to the guys living in Idaho, you got to be in here once a week. And suddenly those people are going, oh, I got to get back up there.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, but you got to ask what QE does if, okay, when they're, quote, buying all those mortgage-backed securities, if you don't think that had an impact.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not to I The argument here is that we're coming down through is the market adjust to whatever level the mortgage rates are at. If you raise mortgage rates You can shift the demand in any period. You can shift it forward or back. So I'm willing to concede that the Fed can do that with its ability to raise in lower rates.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You do grant that interest rates mortgage low mortgage rates create a lot of demand and high mortgage rates reduce demand because you went so far to say that you can't raise mortgage rates because raising mortgage rates will cause inflation because it will cause people not to build in the next cycle or I added the next cycle thing. I don't know.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Under your assessment. If you go to Japan and do the same analysis, their mortgage rates are dramatically less. How come their house prices haven't had this gigantic run up? This was a one-time run-off The pandemic was going to end.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't, if you look at the time leading up to it, the decade plus leading up to it, how come house prices didn't go much higher?”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're right, but I mean, it's back to the 90s. Okay, we had half, you know, mortgages were at 8.5%, 9%. We sold a lot of houses at 8.5%, Jack. Okay, we built a lot of houses. When I said earlier is the housing market adjusts based on monthly payment. It adjusted down to 3% because that's where the Fed took rates to. You're saying, ooh, it was ultra hot. The reason for it being ultra hot had nothing to do with something reproducible. It was a one-time blip that central banks need to look through. A pandemic is a one-time blip. So, you don't think the reason”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When interest rates are really low, everyone produces a lot of stuff and growth is very high because, oh my God, yeah, I'm going to borrow at 50 basis points and I'm going to build a million houses. And therefore, inflation will be low because there are a million houses. But the problem is when interest rates are at 50 basis points, you also spill demand. So I agree, you're right, but I mean, it's...”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Four or five, you're right. You can't with inflation, you cannot. Inflation isn't something you go, oh, there's a next cycle. Okay, they've embedded it, the supply side, unless you deal with the supply side issues, it comes back to say that I spread it out over a decade doesn't mean I got rid of it But in the meantime, what I did for that decade was pursued a whole series of bad policies.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, but now we're going to have a very slow housing market. It's going to be accompanied by unemployment. It's going to be accompanied by all sorts of stuff. But one of the things that's accompanied by is nobody's going to be building units. Very few are going to get built. So now, let's imagine that somebody comes along and says it's time to get the economy going again. So Fed, we're going to cut rates. You're saying that that should have an impact on housing. We both agree. So now people are going to come out to buy houses. So what's going to happen to housing prices? Going to go up, aren't Wait,”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it will take a time. It will take a year. Okay, now let's try something for you, Jack. Because what you want to do is lower inflation, right? That's the goal. So, what we do is we crush demand. I take 50% of the demand out of the system. Okay, my thesis is as soon as you start adding back any of that 50% demand that you took out, What was causing inflation before returns. So you're going to get inflation back. You didn't do anything to inflation. But housing is a cause of housing was a cause of inflation.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But it will. I mean, if CPI is housing price is the casehiller, is correlated to rent and overclant rent. Very correlated with, hey, how's this? With a lag. I was talking to very professional economists in the summer of 2021. I'm like, hey, these house prices are going crazy. Call me Mr. Simpleton, but house prices go up 30%, shouldn't rent go up 30%. I was told, oh no, there are different markets, but they're not different markets for dream. They're not. And it will take a time. It will take a year.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, I definitely think that you can slow a housing market with it. But that doesn't necessarily slow inflation the way you're thinking it slows inflation. Okay? That's the point I'm trying to get at. It will.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The only thing I'm saying to you we got all this other stuff in terms of supply. I mean, the way of looking at this is take the chart that was. Sorry.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's worked okay. I think it's worked okay in the house. Wait a second. I'm going to you. The housing market is going to give us a big... contraction in our economy. Okay? We're going to get deflation, which is measured as price changes. Because the inventories that we have are going to get go down decidedly in terms of people wanting to liquidate, prices are going to drop. So all that's going to flow through. We're looking at a deflationary situation.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fed funds at 100%, right? Wait a second. But how is it worked? What has it done? I've noticed it's gone to 70% on the mortgages. And how's inflation doing, Jack? Inflation is percolating right along, and you're telling me that there's some tail.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Monetary policy doesn't work. Why does it matter that they've hiked from zero to 3%? By saying, oh, mortgage rates are too high because they went from 3% to 7%. And by the way, the reason that is is because Fed funds rate went from 0% to 3%, and that's causing this massive deflation with housing. Aren't you saying?”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Seems like it's a lot of things that have happened to a lot of coincidences to me, Richard. I'm going to stay with you here on Jack. You got to stay with me on energy. You got to keep looking what happened to the energy side. The problem we had in 81 at the Fed was we could do this analysis, but we couldn't show once we accounted for energy and its impact. Monetary policy worked. The monetary policy”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It just happened. So, if you put up a chart of Fed funds rate and consumer price index, it just so happened, so to the extent that the Fed funds rate follows inflation, we all know that makes sense because people do believe in this theory and that when inflation goes up, Fed governors hike interest rates. But to the extent that high interest rates are frequently accompanied with inflation shooting down, you think that's just a coincidence. Like in 1970, when interest rates shot up. Oh, inflation peaked and we had a recession. 1974, interest rates shot up, we had a recession, inflation went down. 1980, interest rates shot up because inflation was up, then inflation went down, and we had another recession. It seems like it's a lot of things that just happened to coincidences to me, Richard.”
2022-10-20 · Forward Guidance · The Fed Blundered In 2008 —And It’s Blundering Now | Richard Field · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT